ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[DollarBill10]

If you can find a +1.5, you should play that. When I posted these last night at the opening lines, both teams were +1.5. At this point, they are both -1.5 so you should only play the ML.

This is why I said earlier on in the thread that you should get on these plays as early as you can.

Got it...and THANK YOU.

[Win89]

I think it's important for us to watch these lines particularly on double fav plays. For instance on the Washington series when the [A] play was posted they were the fav on ML and PL. I waited till within an hour of game time to place my bet and noticed that they were still a fav but moved to +1.5 on the PL. I made the mistake of following everyone else and played ML thinking everything would be okay plus the -330 wasn't very appealing. Anyway they ended up covering and caused me that [C] loss so l just feel everyone should be aware of these things and I'd say if they open as a double fav and the play is +1.5 then get it, but if their -1.5 then probably wait as long as possible just in case of a line movement. Could save us a loss.

[ElCapitan]

V1 Montreal Canadiens (A) ML -110 (1.10 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Montreal Canadiens (A) PL -320 (3.20 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V1 New Jersey Devils (A) ML -110 (1.10 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 New Jersey Devils (A) PL -320 (3.20 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 21(A)-8(B)-3(C) (-1.57) SERIES: 16-2 (3 pending)
V1 PL: 21(A)-6(B)-1(C) (-5.01) SERIES: 17-1 (3 pending)

V2 ML: 24(A)-10(B)-4(C) (+18.41) SERIES: 22-1 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 24(A)-5(B)-3(C) (+3.58) SERIES: 22-1 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

12/1 Plays

V1 Montreal Canadiens (B) ML +150 (1.4 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)
V1 Montreal Canadiens (B) PL -210 (8.82 to win 4.2) (5Dimes)


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Columbus Blue Jackets (B) ML +140 (1.43 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V2 Columbus Blue Jackets (B) PL -225 (5.63 to win 2.5) (5Dimes)

[Win89]

Anybody feel good about Montreal tonight?

[ghislaine]

Hi there,
just wanted to say thanks for all You do Cap and Your posts are very clear and concise !!
Love that You clearly state not to bet the V2 wagers
keep it up !!

[ghislaine]

haha, although, reading the rest of the posts I now see that V2 has actually done pretty well
Getting onboard tonight, with both versions B bets, all four of them !!
Thanks again Cap, JM systems are still the core of my profit

[ghislaine]

oh oh, and one more thing !!
( sorry won`t clutter Your thread after this )
thanks for posting so early, helps me alot as I am in Finland and 8 hours ahead of game time

[thelimit0310]

Cant believe V1 is performing like this, would think with an average of less than 3 losses a year it wouldn't be so grim a month and a half in. On to the B bet for Montreal I guess

[ElCapitan]

ghislaine
Thanks for the kind words. Hopefully we can all make some money this year. I try to post them as early as I can but I also post the plays monthly so you can follow along on your own.

thelimit0310
Looking back at the past couple years, the V1 PL system goes to a B bet between 25-30% of the time so we're running right on schedule.

[thelimit0310]

thelimit0310
Looking back at the past couple years, the V1 PL system goes to a B bet between 25-30% of the time so we're running right on schedule.

Maybe our season averages are looking good but as of late the A's have been underperforming, wayyy under average. Since our C loss with Washington, 4 of 8 series have gone to the B bet, that's 50%. And I'm sure many players are like me and missed out on the Islanders series, actually making that 4 out of 7 since our C loss, for a 57% loss rate...double the loss rate of 25-30%.

Coming off a C loss, that doesn't sit too well. I hope things come back to normal soon.

[Win89]

Things sure have been looking grim lately. Last night was a big defeat and honestly I don't like the way Montreal is looking right now.

[slapster33]

like the under in SJ, price should keep it under

[NickJ3]

Go with the sharks on PL. Montreal couldn't even handle a struggling ducks team and now they have a back to back against a top western coference team itching to get back on track. This is the game the sharks will come out and dominate from the puck drop.

[jphil]

I have a fetish for headless Fins, Clarice. GL tonight.

[Kev the Brit]

Go with the sharks on PL. Montreal couldn't even handle a struggling ducks team and now they have a back to back against a top western coference team itching to get back on track. This is the game the sharks will come out and dominate from the puck drop.

Well, that worked....not.

I stuck to the system, which has worked well for me over 3 years. Even if the Canadiens lost on the PL last night, the system will have enough wins in the future to recover a series loss if it were to happen.

My advice: don't think about peformance, except the worst road team, as per JM's pdf.

[Thirsty P]

Well, that worked....not.

I stuck to the system, which has worked well for me over 3 years. Even if the Canadiens lost on the PL last night, the system will have enough wins in the future to recover a series loss if it were to happen.

My advice: don't think about peformance, except the worst road team, as per JM's pdf.

Good advice ------

[thelimit0310]

Well, that worked....not.

I stuck to the system, which has worked well for me over 3 years. Even if the Canadiens lost on the PL last night, the system will have enough wins in the future to recover a series loss if it were to happen.

My advice: don't think about peformance, except the worst road team, as per JM's pdf.

Couldn't have said it better Kev. Every thread always has the people who get nervous and start to break away from the system and handicap the games; you just got to follow the system!

[ElCapitan]

V1 Montreal Canadiens (B) ML +150 (1.4 to win 2.1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Montreal Canadiens (B) PL -210 (8.82 to win 4.2) (5Dimes) *WIN*


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Columbus Blue Jackets (B) ML +140 (1.43 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Columbus Blue Jackets (B) PL -225 (5.63 to win 2.5) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 21(A)-9(B)-3(C) (-2.97) SERIES: 16-2 (3 pending)
V1 PL: 21(A)-7(B)-1(C) (-0.81) SERIES: 18-1 (2 pending)

V2 ML: 24(A)-11(B)-4(C) (+20.41) SERIES: 23-1
V2 PL: 24(A)-6(B)-3(C) (+6.08) SERIES: 23-1

[ElCapitan]

12/2 Plays

V1 Detroit Red Wings (A) ML -123 (1.23 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V1 Detroit Red Wings(A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.23 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V1 New Jersey Devils (B) ML +103 (2.04 to win 2.1) (5Dimes)
V1 New Jersey Devils (B) PL -290 (12.18 to win 4.2) (5Dimes)

V1 Philadelphia Flyers (B) ML -120 (2.4 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V1 Philadelphia Flyers(B) PL (fav, play ML) (4.14 to win 3.45) (5Dimes)

[thelimit0310]

Thanks Capitan, let's rake in these bets

[delbiand]

[jcygts6]

Thanks captain..

[ghislaine]

ummm, sorry, silly me, just checking
Red Wings and Flyers both two ML bets as per system rules ??
thanks again Cap

[NickJ3]

Takin the wings and taken the devils love these odds lets make some money

[oklahoma]

philly doesnt have the easiest schedule after tonight, youd think they wouldve wanted this win, guess not.

edit: f'n backbreaking loss for the ducks...but it feels good to be wrong

[DANO74]

Awesome comeback! $$

[Win89]

Nice hit on Philly!

[knugen]

Devils vs jets as a C bet

[ghislaine]

Looking good
Let`s keep it up !!
Doing a labby on this and a few cappers as well.
Aaaand we got NBA just around the corner !!

[Kev the Brit]

The New Jersey chase is becoming very expensive tonight: total bet is now over 60 units to gain 1 unit on the BR. I've never been here before.

[ghislaine]

so it goes Kev...
great to see You again though
I just can`t chase, too much for my nerves haha.
Bank my look a little sad when I labby and lose, but I never have to cough up 60 ( !! ) units.
Wowza, let`s hope it all falls into place

[knugen]

yeah, we have to be very careful with our A bet on a team that probably will be PL bets on B and C bets...

ghislaine, where have u been, i sent u email, but u didnt answear??

[DANO74]

Montreal ML is a C bet also

[oklahoma]

The New Jersey chase is becoming very expensive tonight: total bet is now over 60 units to gain 1 unit on the BR. I've never been here before.

60 units bol but i could never convince myself thats a worthy bet. you should have some solace in knowing theyre playing the jets