NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

[easywinner]

I did some back testing from late November on and S1 is winning right around 70% using our criteria, minimum 5 games that day. It was very time consuming and tedious. I'd like to go back to last season and previous years too but it's not really easy or quick to do it. The good news is at least we know it's a winner and we are mostly betting + lines so that is even better, no heavy chalk. From what i saw given the correct management we could virtually have eliminated any losses this season for S1 by chasing or using a labby. The longest losing streak i saw was 3 and the longest win streak was 7 and at one point it went 14 wins and 2 losses over a span of 2 weeks, not bad. The thing you have to remember with this and it was made more apparent to me when going back is that we are betting on generally very good teams using this system due to the set up of them being highest in the standings. Today is Dallas, they are a pretty big dog right now for S1 standards at +155 so let's get em today boys.

[bauerranch]

Thanks for your research

[the-phenomenal-1]

hockey

hockey is pretty even this year

[rthoughton]

I bet hockey is pretty even every year.
Consistent losing created this system. It is nice.
Thanks, Dude. For all of the hard work. Someone should pay you, err.... us. ha.

SYSTEM PLAYS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 24th.
S1: DALLAS STARS +155.


S2: NY RANGERS +165


S3: NASHVILLE PREDATORS +115.


S1: YTD 12-4 +10.2u.
S2: YTD 6-10 +1u.
S3: YTD 2-3 -0.70u.

[rthoughton]

my idea is, maybe S1 games played at home for 2units as it was proposed in the first post of the thread.

does anybody know if and where exist comprehensive archives on NHL? when i say comprehensive i mean database like KillerSports.com... something you can search through and through adding wildest criteria? this is important for me, because i have some ideas and would like to see how are they doing before sharing with you... if there are, PLEASE, bring 'em on!

Have I missed double-up times when S1 play was at home? It doesnt happen much, because the home team is usually the favorite, and we get that great s1 team by that great team being on the road.
IF I have overlooked the double bet, my apologies, but I dont think so. I feel like that will almost never happen in this system with a 5 game min.

I do not have any information on archives. I would, however, be interested in what you have up your sleeve.

[bobturner]

very good records!

[hellguard]

Got S1 for tonight man, great picks so far. Wish u luck!

go dallas!!

[easywinner]

For S1 i only see that the home team was the dog once this season from the games i back tracked and if we are using the 5 games minimum for a play then it wouldn't have even fit the system because the day it happened there were less than 5 games on the slate. I was looking for trends and i found something although it is a small sample size. There were 2 occasions where the same team was the S1 play on back to back days and both times on the 2nd day they lost. So i guess we can keep that in mind for the future if the same team pops up on back to back days as the S1 play use scrutiny on the 2nd day. Also i found that 63% of all losses in the system would have been eliminated if we had not played games where the S1 team had their backup goalie in the pipes, i think that is pretty significant. I don't know how this affects the wins of the system though as i didn't go through each game just the ones that were losses so i guess it's possible we could have a few less wins as well staying away from the games where the backup tender was in. Since this thread was started, S1 would not have any losses if we had not played the system on days with less than 5 games on the schedule and if we had not played the games where the team that fit S1 had their backup goalie start. Pretty impressive, the system would have a perfect record with very minor rules in place. Does anyone know if Dallas has their #1 in the net tonight? What's the best way to find out what goalie a team will start prior to game time and short of actually watching the game? Thanks.

[dvw5bf]

For S1 i only see that the home team was the dog once this season from the games i back tracked and if we are using the 5 games minimum for a play then it wouldn't have even fit the system because the day it happened there were less than 5 games on the slate. I was looking for trends and i found something although it is a small sample size. There were 2 occasions where the same team was the S1 play on back to back days and both times on the 2nd day they lost. So i guess we can keep that in mind for the future if the same team pops up on back to back days as the S1 play use scrutiny on the 2nd day. Also i found that 63% of all losses in the system would have been eliminated if we had not played games where the S1 team had their backup goalie in the pipes, i think that is pretty significant. I don't know how this affects the wins of the system though as i didn't go through each game just the ones that were losses so i guess it's possible we could have a few less wins as well staying away from the games where the backup tender was in. Since this thread was started, S1 would not have any losses if we had not played the system on days with less than 5 games on the schedule and if we had not played the games where the team that fit S1 had their backup goalie start. Pretty impressive, the system would have a perfect record with very minor rules in place. Does anyone know if Dallas has their #1 in the net tonight? What's the best way to find out what goalie a team will start prior to game time and short of actually watching the game? Thanks.

Dallas is going with their #1 in Lehtonen tonight according to leftwinglock.com

[hellguard]

For S1 i only see that the home team was the dog once this season from the games i back tracked and if we are using the 5 games minimum for a play then it wouldn't have even fit the system because the day it happened there were less than 5 games on the slate. I was looking for trends and i found something although it is a small sample size. There were 2 occasions where the same team was the S1 play on back to back days and both times on the 2nd day they lost. So i guess we can keep that in mind for the future if the same team pops up on back to back days as the S1 play use scrutiny on the 2nd day. Also i found that 63% of all losses in the system would have been eliminated if we had not played games where the S1 team had their backup goalie in the pipes, i think that is pretty significant. I don't know how this affects the wins of the system though as i didn't go through each game just the ones that were losses so i guess it's possible we could have a few less wins as well staying away from the games where the backup tender was in. Since this thread was started, S1 would not have any losses if we had not played the system on days with less than 5 games on the schedule and if we had not played the games where the team that fit S1 had their backup goalie start. Pretty impressive, the system would have a perfect record with very minor rules in place. Does anyone know if Dallas has their #1 in the net tonight? What's the best way to find out what goalie a team will start prior to game time and short of actually watching the game? Thanks.

Good info man appriciated, shoul be tracking new datas you mentioned from now on...

[easywinner]

Thanks for that link dvw. I was flat betting S1 before but knowing what i know now I'm going to start running a labby with it and hope that S1 holds true to form for the rest of the season. I'm going to go back to previous seasons and try to get some more historical data when i get time but for right now let's keep this train rollin everybody.

[mitchp]

Easy,

where are you getting your historical, I would like to help out back-tracking this system.

Mitch

[easywinner]

Easy,

where are you getting your historical, I would like to help out back-tracking this system.

Mitch

I was using this link that chucker provider earlier in the thread to get the opening lines. http://www.sbrforum.com/nhl-hockey/odds-scores/

Then i was using this link that i found on a search engine to get the standings for each individual day. I input the date and conference standing and it brings up the point totals from individual dates in the past.
http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

Finally i was using espn and their historical games data to get scores and goalies that played. Just on espn.com click on NHL then click scores then you can go to individual dates and see the scores and some data from the games that they have listed such as who the goalies were.

I can't say 100% that all of the data in all of those places is correct but I'm going to assume that it is or at least very close maybe like +/- 1% in the case of an input error but it should be good to give us an idea. The only thing that sucks is it was very time consuming and tedious to have to navigate between the 3 sites but i think it was worth it. I already felt good about the system and now with a little history to back it up i feel better. Are you planning on doing any previous seasons? I was going to do last season when i get a chance unless you wanted to do it or anyone else? I think we should just say on here though if we are going to do a season so someone else doesn't waste time doing the same data.

[Axis]

^^
Glad you posted that because I was going to help as well. I'll dig back into last season a bit to see how it did...I'll start in April and work my way back toward January.

[brko]

i keep my fingers crossed for your system play today! Good luck to all of you!

[UnderdogLover]

I was scared to take dallas today, but hey, numbers dont lie and the systems been holding up. Hopefully they pick it up the rest of the game. It seems like the system might be evening out though, what with dallas having to play a hungry vancouver team, and (assumedly) the canadiens tomorrow having to face philadelphia who seems to be getting their wheels back. I cross my fingers and hope the system holds up the rest of the season

[bobturner]

Not so good, today, but NYRangers saved!!

[apwmel]

Today's gonna be a great day.

[rthoughton]

S1: YTD 12-5 +9.2u.
S2: YTD 7-10 +2.65u.
S3: YTD 2-4 -1.70u.

not the best night last night. I was worried going into that game in Vancouver last night. S1 never really had a shot last night. that was the highest line we've seen yet for it.
I honestly cant believe that 2 is positive.
Yo, Dude! thanks for all of the hard work and great info.
Definitely something that we should start looking into before we decide to pull the trigger on the play. I will, tho, continue to post the plays for the systems on days with a minimum of 5 games.

[rthoughton]

PLAYS FOR TUESDAY JAN 25 (as of 10AM east)
**I have lost my internet connection at my house... dude's not coming until tomorrow... i have no idea wtf is happening... anyway, I had to make a morning run to get this shit in. and all my other business handled... So, It looks like S2 could benefit from some waiting as a big line battle is underway.

SYSTEM 1: MONTREAL CANADIENS +160
Lookin' like another impossible visit for our best ranked dog. so we go.

System 2: Toronto Maple Leafs +185
You may wanna wait on this, see what happens...or take all three and hope for a 2fer. (Edmonton and NYI are in the running.)

SYSTEM 3: Ottawa Sens +120
As of now, we have an all-Canada lineup.

Ill check back later, I think.
Your input is greatly appreciated.
I will post info on starters and back-to-backs and what nots upcoming... just not until tomorrow.
PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF SOMETHING IS HAPPENING THAT I HAVE NOT MENTIONED OR SEEM TO HAVE OVERLOOKED.
I think we have a good thing going here, and with everyone's real interest and input (Dude) we could really make some jack.
Holla.

[Dbear13]

It looks like Montreal has Price starting and Flyers have Bobrovsky...both starting goalies playing tonight.

From Leftwing:
And we know what happens when your Montreal Canadiens face Philadelphia in the playoffs.
It pains us to admit it, but the Flyers are a very good hockey team. Maybe the NHL's best.
Carey Price shut them out 3-0 at the Bell Centre on Nov. 16. But they blew a 2-0 lead (on two goal by Maxim Lapierre!) and lost 3-2 in Philadelpia on Nov. 22.
And on Dec. 15 at the Bell Centre, after the Canadiens battled back from a 3-1 deficit to te the game, goals by James van Riemsdyk and Clade Giroux (the gifed franco-Ontarian who should be playing here) put the game away.
Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta have each scored twice in three games against Philadelphia.
Price will be in the nets tonight when the Canadiens try to tie the season series and pick up a bit of Mo heading into the All-Star break.

[easywinner]

I'm trusting the system tonight, i will always trust it until it has a horrible losing run or becomes not profitable which hasn't happened yet. I thought of something else, maybe we should go through each team's record as the S1 team and if they suck eliminate them from future plays. Like say for instance we knew that team xyz was 0-4 or 1-5 in the system, just don't play that team anymore. Idk if any team has had that bad of a record in S1 but I'm just saying I'm curious now and i kinda wanna go back and look. What do you think? Last night was our first real legitimate S1 loss since this thread started, we had the #1 in the pipes, it wasn't back to back games for the same team and there were 5 or more games played, we just flat out got beat but the system will come back like it always does. I just noticed something else, out of the top 8 teams in each conference or the teams that would currently be in the playoffs if it started today, Montreal has the second worst road record of those teams, i wonder how stuff like that affects this system. I think too much about this system now, trying to find all of the variables that go into it, lol.

[Axis]

^^
Been working on that...creating a spreadsheet of the plays. Only month I've run into that was a little slow was last March, but April was quite profitable.

Only thing I'm not checking is the back up goaltender situation...I mean, to be honest...the books know which goalies are starting, so I would think the lines would be adjusted accordingly.

But who knows...it's just super time consuming...

[bauerranch]

Lets change it around tonight

[Axis]

Might be passing on tonight's game. Our dog is going up against the Canucks in Vancouver.

Though Nashville is 10-3 in the last 13...

[rthoughton]

I still have no internet at my house. apparently there is an issue with two connecting poles. shit's weak.
Anyway, Oh Canada let us down last night.
I need to create a new thread soon with a link to this thread in the first post.
I totally agree with a S1 standings. great idea.
There also should be a rule about starting Gs. And perhaps we should make a rule about the quality of the opponent of system1, or a +$$ cutoff. as the last two nights were losers, but were way bigger return lines than anything we have seen so far. +155 Lost then +160 Lost. just a thought.
I have no idea how long Ill be without internet.
IF you would like to put together a LIST OF RULEs, that would be tight, or we can wait until I have some time to take care of it myself.

S1: YTD 16-6, +8.2u
S2: YTD 7-11 +1.65u.
S3: YTD 2-5 -2.70u.

PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY JAN 26.
Like today for example, the GD play for system1 is even higher than the last two days. THEY ARE SCREWING WITH OUR SHIT! ha.

S1: NASHVILLE PREDS +165!! @van
S2: Edmonton +205 @dal
S3: ST LOUIS +115 @cal

[blaucoin]

I think you should just keep it the way it is. This will really show the true winning % of the dog with the most points. No risk no reward! But hey that's just my opinion. If you start changing the rules now, I can start keeping the record of the original system just to see the difference in between Units and %.

[oklahoma]

I think you have a typo in your s1 records above. 16-6^, its 12-6.
preds at +165 and according to sbrodds the public is slightly on nash ml. maybe best to wait closer to gametime for this one.

[Axis]

Adding rules is only trying to help cut some of the losses because in the little back-testing some of use have done, we've found a few trends that could help...

[mpresiv1]

I think you should just keep it the way it is. This will really show the true winning % of the dog with the most points. No risk no reward! But hey that's just my opinion. If you start changing the rules now, I can start keeping the record of the original system just to see the difference in between Units and %.

Agree 100%.

Just my 2 cents keep up the good work

[blaucoin]

Adding rules is only trying to help cut some of the losses because in the little back-testing some of use have done, we've found a few trends that could help...

I understand that as well. Like I said if you change some of the rules, I still think you should keep the original system record going to compare at the end of the season and I'll be willing to do that

[Sawyer]

Don't forget even backup goalies can have amazing performances..
And sometimes No#1 goalie allows 3 goals in 1st period.

Keep it simple stupid.

[Chucker]

Sorry guys...I started betting S1 and whaddya know, we go on a 3 game losing streak. Heres hoping it picks up after the ASB. Peace.

[rthoughton]

I also agree that Backups can put together big games. no doubt about it.
Here is one thing that I would like to suggest... What if (as has been the last three plays, the last three you lost, Chuck) we don't play SYSTEM ONE on days when that team is below the team they are up against in the standings?
So DALLAS was +155 @ Van (right?), Montreal was S1 play @ PHI at +160, and Nashville was +165 @ Vancouver. These were road games at the two best teams in the NHL with ridiculous lines. Although, I really thought we had that one last night...
So, what I propose is that if the SYSTEM ONE play for any given night is ON THE ROAD against a team above them in the standings, we skip the game for that night.
You cannot argue with the backup goalie numbers.
I agree with keeping it simple as well. This is merely intended as a guide. I hope to win. And I think improving/tweaking the system anyway we can would be beneficial.

""I think you have a typo in your s1 records above. 16-6^, its 12-6."" ~~ correct.

SYSTEM 1 YTD: 12-7, +7.20u.
SYSTEM 2 YTD: 7-12, +0.65u.
SYSTEM 3 YTD: 2-6, -3.60u.

[rthoughton]

Regardless, we have the all-star game coming up.
Enjoy your SYSTEM-less weekend.