NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

[bus2]

Hay guys,I think for tonight to bet on 3 games
1)
NY Islanders
@Buffalo = Home win(including overtime and penalty shootout)
NY Islanders is very week team now with a lot of injuries:covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player3612.html RW Ques Fri - Concussion - 1/21/11 notesRakshani missed his fourth game in a row Thursday against the Capitals while he continues to recover from a concussion. He remains questionable for Friday's game against the Sabres. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1240.html D Ques Fri - Upper Body - 1/21/11 notesJurcina missed Thursday's game against the Capitals due to an upper body injury and remains questionable for Friday's game against the Sabres. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player188.html D Out indefinitely - Hip - 1/6/11 notesEaton is dealing with a hip injury that will require surgery and will be out for an indefinite amount of time. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1563.html D out for season - Eye - 12/22/10 notesMottau will require surgery to repair his injured hip and will miss the remainder of the season. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player909.html RW Out indefinitely - Lower Body - 11/26/10 notesHunter will be sidelined indefinitely with a Grade 3 MCL tear in his left knee. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1325.html D Early Feb - Shoulder - 10/9/10 notesStreit suffered torn labrum after he was cross checked into the boards by teammate Matt Moulson during a scrimmage and is optimistic for a February return after undergoing successful shoulder surgery. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player554.html C I-R - Back - 12/14/10 notesWeight will be out for at least a week after being placed on the injured reserve because of back spasms. with all this palyers out ,they scored 95 goals and made 127 assists wich is very poor result before the away game in Buffalo, who won last night in away game with strong team like Boston,also they lost their last 2 home games with not so strong teams at the moment.In the last 3 away games with Buffalo,NY Islanders lost all games in 2,3 goals difference.Their away record for this season is 6-14-2-1 wich is very bad.
Buffalo is on a fire now especially after last night won with Boston.They won their last 2 games with very good teams Montreal and Boston. They don't have any fresh inportant injuries.Their home record is11-11-1-0 wich is not bad compared with NYI away record and they have to push to be closer to playoff zone.They scored 98 goals an made 187 asissts in this season.

Come On Buffalo.



2)
Dallas
@Calgary = away win(including overtime and penalty shootout)
Calgary is in poor form now after losing last 2 games and they have a lot of injuries:




covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player816.html D Ques Fri - Ribs - 1/20/11 notesStaios missed the last two games because of a rib injury and remains questionable for Friday's game against the Wild. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1580.html LW Ques Fri - Poss. Suspension - 1/20/11 notesGlencross is facing a possible suspension for a boarding hit on Clayton Stoner. He is questionable for Friday's game against the Stars. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1109.html RW Elig Jan 22 - Suspension - 1/9/11 notesKostopoulos has been suspended for six games for a blow delivered to Brad Stuart of the Red Wings. He is not going to return until January 22nd when they play the Canucks he will also be fined $29,569.92. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player239.html C Out indefinitely - Neck - 11/3/10 notesLangkow felt numbness in his legs while working out on November 3 and is out indefinitely. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player1324.html LW Out indefinitely - Concussion - 10/27/10 notes




Whit all this players out they scored 101 goals and made 181 asissts wich is very before game with on a fire Dalls team.From last 5 home games with Dalls they won just 2,their home record is 11-9-0-1,not good for home team.

Dallas is great team wich is on a fire now,they won their last 7 away games.They don't have any fresh important injuries.Their away record is 11-11-0 .They scored 130 goals and made 214 asissts in this season.

Come On Dallas


3)
Tampa Bay
@Florida = away win(including overtime and penalty shootout)
Florida is not in a good condition now,they lost with poor Columbus at home ln last game.They have some injuries:covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player81.html G Ques Fri - Hand - 1/21/11 notesVokoun left practice with a hand injury and remains questionable for Friday's game against the Lightning. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player797.html LW Out indefinitely - Hamstring - 1/20/11 notesHiggins continues to battle with a lingering hamstring injury and will be out for an indefinite amount of time. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player615.html D Early Feb - Jaw - 1/16/11 notesMcCabe suffered a Jaw injury and is forced to take at least two weeks off. He may be able to return as early as the first week of February. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/players/player2637.html RW I-R - Groin - 10/10/10 notesBitz has been placed on the injured reserve after undergoing sports hernia surgery. He is expected to miss at least two months as a result. They lost their last two games,one of them was with atlanta who lost with Tampa Bay last night.Their home record is 11-8-2-2.They scored 110 goals and made 182 asissts-good but not enough playing with Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay won last 2 games,one of them was with Colombus who won with Florida.They don't have any injuries,Their away record is14-11-2-1.They scored139 goals and made 245 asissts which will be more than enough to destroy Florida.

Come ON Tampa Bay

Haw do you think?Any more ideas from you people?

[rthoughton]

never mind.

[rthoughton]

PLAYS FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 21st.
*I will play the system though there are only 4 games, as the teams that fit the system feel profitable.

SYSTEM 1 (the underdog with the most pts in the standings):
DALLAS STARS +105

S1 YTD: 10-3 +9.2u

System Two (the highest return underdog. biggest +#).
NEW YORK ISLANDERS +175

S2 YTD: 4-9, -1.7u

SYSTEM 3 (the underdog playing the favorite with the lowest pt total in the standings):
DALLAS STARS +105

*Calgary is the worst team according to the standings of the favorites on the slate. Calgary has the same number of points as Florida (46), but has less wins (21-20) and has played 2 more games (47-45). Therefore, Florida is 1 point over .500, and Calgary is 1pt under.
S3 YTD: 1-1, +0.00u

Im certain I am getting my threads mixed up, but I think I suggested somewhere that today was a double-upper on Dallas night. Im not sure that is the requirement. Once again, I think it is wise that you look at this thread as THREE INDIVIDUAL CHOICES. Do not consider this thread as one whole system, but rather 3 studied options. System 1 is clearly the best system of the original 2. System 3 was a late addition. I am merely tracking three ideas. ~~Here's lookin' at you, Blaucoin.
The TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING are a very solid play tonight. They DO NOT fit the system in any place.
They will, more than likely, be played in the "dogs tonight? every night?" thread.

[blaucoin]

Got ya!

[rthoughton]

System Four anyone?
I like: betting any underdog playing at home.
Thoughts?
Ottawa Senators +110 tonight fit that.
Home dogs have been "CASH." ask the Pens last night. Ask the Canucks about the night before that...

[shantystar]

gl.

[easywinner]

I didn't have time to check the thread today but i bet on Tampa bay cause i thought that was the S1 play. Sometimes messing up pays off i guess.

[bobturner]

Great call on Islanders! Congrats

[rthoughton]

S1 YTD 10-4, +8.2u
S2 YTD 5-9, +0.05u
S3 YTD 1-2, -1u.

looks like the Bs are gonna get S1 nod today.
S2 I wanna wait on, but the two that are up for it NJD and CAL would be a fantastic parlay against them: PHI and VAN.
S3 looks like Columbus.
System one is awesome.

[rthoughton]

PLAYS for Saturday JAN 1.22.11.

SYSTEM 1:
BOSTON BRUINS +ev

System 2:
NEW JERSEY DEVILS +195

System 3:
Columbus Blue Jackets +135


I need an S3 dubya! today is a really good day to get it.
good luck on everything you play today.

[Axis]

I'd highly suggest...if you're going to start that system 4...you exclude NYI, NJD, CAL...because I have numbers of home dogs over the past 3 months (minus those teams) and they're pretty good...but if you add those teams, it hurts the numbers quite a bit.

This month has been good, past 2 months have finished just above .500...but with +money that is profit.

I'll dig exact numbers up later...gotta hit the slopes...g/l today.

[rthoughton]

aw man! Going skiing?! Totally unfair. I was up around Snowshoe last week but didnt get to make it out.
Have a good day.
I dont know how I feel about S4. I might track it some soon. not sure.

YO, DUFUSS!! Thanks for the love, man. If only they were all like you! haha. glad you got a winner.
Ill keep at it.

[HollywoodPuck]

Does anyone know if you can bet on College hockey anywhere?

[rthoughton]

S1 winner . YTD 11-4 +9.2u.
S2 winner . YTD 6-9 +2u.
S3 pending.

[Axis]

Does anyone know if you can bet on College hockey anywhere?

I don't remember what book it was...but I have seen it.

It's one of the recommended books on SBR.

[brko]

rthoughton, those dogs you're playing are they reg. time or OT?

[snipeshow23]

great night... 3-0!

[Chucker]

I was wondering if any of these systems would work in any other sports...since we usually are betting on road teams (for system 1 anyway), I thought that if a league had a similar home/away record it could be done. NBA has a way different road game SU win %, but ATS is actually a little better than NHL.

NHL records SU
Away Teams
345-292-50-33
47.92%

Home Teams
375-260-37-48
52.08%

Favorites
390-230-41-50
54.85%

Dogs
321-315-45-30
45.15%

NBA records ATS
Away Teams
356-357-20
49.93%

Home Teams
357-356-20
50.07%

Favorites
339-374-20
47.55%

Dogs
374-339-20
52.45%

So its possible system 1 could work in the NBA as well. Obviously we're not quite as profitable as NHL dogs as lines are -110 all the time. However, percantages are actually better for road teams and dogs ATS in NBA Maybe I will start tracking in NBA forum.

Not sure about other sports yet. MLB looks unlikely...though, I'm having tough times finding records from last season with trends and totals.

[bjornbarspingvin]

Good bets

[Dbear13]

I was wondering if any of these systems would work in any other sports...since we usually are betting on road teams (for system 1 anyway), I thought that if a league had a similar home/away record it could be done. NBA has a way different road game SU win %, but ATS is actually a little better than NHL. NHL records SU Away Teams 345-292-50-33 47.92% Home Teams 375-260-37-48 52.08% Favorites 390-230-41-50 54.85% Dogs 321-315-45-30 45.15% NBA records ATS Away Teams 356-357-20 49.93% Home Teams 357-356-20 50.07% Favorites 339-374-20 47.55% Dogs 374-339-20 52.45% So its possible system 1 could work in the NBA as well. Obviously we're not quite as profitable as NHL dogs as lines are -110 all the time. However, percantages are actually better for road teams and dogs ATS in NBA Maybe I will start tracking in NBA forum. Not sure about other sports yet. MLB looks unlikely...though, I'm having tough times finding records from last season with trends and totals.

Here is an NBA away team betting option that I just found and started to use that is profitable. It's betting against the away team when it meets certain criteria. Not exactly like the NHL system, but its making $$$$. Check it out.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/740283-nba-road-system-2010-11-a.html

[rthoughton]

I was wondering if any of these systems would work in any other sports...since we usually are betting on road teams (for system 1 anyway), I thought that if a league had a similar home/away record it could be done. NBA has a way different road game SU win %, but ATS is actually a little better than NHL.

NHL records SU
Away Teams
345-292-50-33
47.92%

Home Teams
375-260-37-48
52.08%

Favorites
390-230-41-50
54.85%

Dogs
321-315-45-30
45.15%

NBA records ATS
Away Teams
356-357-20
49.93%

Home Teams
357-356-20
50.07%

Favorites
339-374-20
47.55%

Dogs
374-339-20
52.45%

So its possible system 1 could work in the NBA as well. Obviously we're not quite as profitable as NHL dogs as lines are -110 all the time. However, percantages are actually better for road teams and dogs ATS in NBA Maybe I will start tracking in NBA forum.

Not sure about other sports yet. MLB looks unlikely...though, I'm having tough times finding records from last season with trends and totals.

I have thought about this as well. The problem with the NBA is that the teams/games are not always as evenly matched. There is much more parity in the NHL. which is why i used to struggle so much there. The reason why this system came up is bc I always failed at hockey, but it is certainly one of my favorite sports. By eliminating half of the slate every day, I have started to have some success.
Sure, SYSTEM 1 could work in the NBA against the spread, but I win in NBA based on other things a lot more. Anyway, Im glad this has you thinking.

[rthoughton]

rthoughton, those dogs you're playing are they reg. time or OT?

These are not 3-way bets. just straight up to win, including OT and SO.

[rthoughton]

S1 winner . YTD 11-4 +9.2u.
S2 winner . YTD 6-9 +2u.
S3 winner . YTD 2-2 +0.30u.

FIVE GAMEs on the board today, let's play some hockey.
System plays for Sunday January 23.

S1: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +105

S2: ATLANTA THRASHERS +150

S3: FLORIDA PANTHERS +105


good luck today.

[apwmel]

I see another 3-0 today.

[rthoughton]

Another win in S1 is what Im really lookin' for.
Hopefully the Flyers can get one more.

[easywinner]

Another win in S1 is what Im really lookin' for.
Hopefully the Flyers can get one more.

Flyers look good late in that game. I was curious, have you back tested S1 throughout the entire season or any previous seasons? If not does anybody know where you can get historical data on NHL opening lines for previous games?

Also i just quickly went back through and for S1 if we would have followed the idea of only playing on days with 5 games minimum or more then we would only have 2 losses as opposed to 4 right now and those 2 loses would have been both on the road. The flyers to a hot bruins team at the time and an injured wings team in Pittsburgh. Personally i can live with both of those all day considering the facts. The system has been solid since initiated.

[UnderdogLover]

Hey rthoughton, great thread. Im generally a new gambler and i made an account just so i could contribute to this forum because i believe you got a good system going here. Thanks for the picks, BOL the rest of the year

[bauerranch]

Just found your thread and love the idea since I had done the same for awhile alone and found dogs are the way to go in the NHL

Thanks

[rthoughton]

Ya, no problem. System 1 is fantastic.
Hopefully it will be this good all the time.

Thanks for the note on the minimum games. Even more solidifies the system. nice.

[rthoughton]

I have not backtested this system, tho, whatsoever.

[Axis]

Back testing system 1 would be very hard and time consuming I would think...because you'd need the opening lines, as well as the exact standings on that day.

You could probably use closing lines, but I'm sure that would sometimes effect which games is looked upon, as we've seen once or twice, the early dog sometimes even becomes the favorite.

[rthoughton]

definite time Im unwilling to donate.
However, if someone else did it, I would like it.

[rthoughton]

S1 winner . YTD 12-4 +10.2u.
S2 loser. YTD 6-10 +1u.
S3 loser. YTD 2-3 -0.70u.

[Chucker]

opening lines historical data is easy...right here at SBR

http://www.sbrforum.com/nhl-hockey/odds-scores/

However, checking for who has the best record and is considered an underdog is not so easy. Does somebody know where a guy can get standings charts from previous dates?

[medjimurec]

let me contribute... i agree that the load of work invested in back test of this is huge and no wonder that no-one wants it - because you have two parameters to cover: exact table standings at the time match took place and historic lines. maybe you should ask the people in "think tank" section for help, they do some extraordinary things with chewing large amount of date and processing them. they scrape every day, and i'm sure they have data for each game. i tried, a way back, to follow their advice and build my own scraping monster machine but my knowledge is insufficient and quit.

my idea is, maybe S1 games played at home for 2units as it was proposed in the first post of the thread.

does anybody know if and where exist comprehensive archives on NHL? when i say comprehensive i mean database like KillerSports.com... something you can search through and through adding wildest criteria? this is important for me, because i have some ideas and would like to see how are they doing before sharing with you... if there are, PLEASE, bring 'em on!