NHL Situational Plays

[emceeaye]

emc. are you not into NBA? It seems you have more of your own queries in NHL than MLB. Is it a learning curve?

Some of those I posted are solely my own, some are ones I tweaked to some extent that were originally described by Ross Benjamin, and others were posted in this thread that I may have/or have not tweaked. The main barrier to creating queries for me is time...I dont have a lot of it because I'm at work during the day. For the past few weeks I've had some more free time than usual, and when I can, I put queries together...I'd like to focus on one sport at a time--since I got worked by NHL last year, I want to try to conquer it. I'd like to dedicate more time to NBA when the season gets further along. For MLB I was able to collect enough different queries that sample enough of the variables that influence outcomes of games between you, bases and others, that although I did create a bunch of my own, the urgency wasnt there to churn them out. With NHL, the urgency is stronger due to shortage of available queries.

[emceeaye]

This is the query translation today's Ross Benjamin description/rationale for a pick:

A and p:margin>=2 and pp:margin>=2 and op:goals>=5 and opp:goals>=5

It favors Bruins ML, but for some reason not showing up as active in database query results for today's Bruins/Maple Leafs game...anyone else having better luck?

[zxqwpdbg]

This is the query translation today's Ross Benjamin description/rationale for a pick:

A and p:margin>=2 and pp:margin>=2 and op:goals>=5 and opp:goals>=5

It favors Bruins ML, but for some reason not showing up as active in database query results for today's Bruins/Maple Leafs game...anyone else having better luck?

ive seen this query posted somewhere else and i can't get it to show that game either. i am guessing maybe it's an error and that game is missing from the database.

[JMon]

This is the query translation today's Ross Benjamin description/rationale for a pick:

A and p:margin>=2 and pp:margin>=2 and op:goals>=5 and opp:goals>=5

It favors Bruins ML, but for some reason not showing up as active in database query results for today's Bruins/Maple Leafs game...anyone else having better luck?

odd, it should be active but it's not. Should be brought up in the google group for Joe to look at.

[otunj]

This is the query translation today's Ross Benjamin description/rationale for a pick:

A and p:margin>=2 and pp:margin>=2 and op:goals>=5 and opp:goals>=5

It favors Bruins ML, but for some reason not showing up as active in database query results for today's Bruins/Maple Leafs game...anyone else having better luck?

The database doesn't have the Leafs' Sunday game (11/9) vs OTT in it

team=Maple Leafs and season=2014

[emceeaye]

Slump

[nash13]

Most of the year NHL was big profit for me, nearly up 100 Units. But now back to 30 Units Profit. I guess it comes and goes in waves just like MLB. I will stick to it for tracking purposes.

[emceeaye]

Most of the year NHL was big profit for me, nearly up 100 Units. But now back to 30 Units Profit. I guess it comes and goes in waves just like MLB. I will stick to it for tracking purposes.

True, it has been kind of happening in swings just as in MLB. The frustrating and tricky challenge is knowing whether any particular down-swing is attributable to a faulty approach/sytem/basis for selection or just to expected normal variation.

[emceeaye]

Islanders ML

Tweaked Ross Benjamin's query for today favoring Islanders ML:

The rationale is not intuitive to me, as I don't get why a shut-out home win by a losing record team would predict a loss in their next game on the road to a winning team. That is, I'm not sure why they would have a higher likelihood of losing than a losing record team playing away against a winning record team...


p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>52 and season>=2010 and game number<42 and o:WP<50

[zxqwpdbg]

did anyone ever figure out how to do ml wp? or how it is different from regular wp?

[emceeaye]

did anyone ever figure out how to do ml wp? or how it is different from regular wp?

Its a good question that I think I've asked before in this thread, but just never got around to asking it in Google groups...

[otunj]

Tweaked Ross Benjamin's query for today favoring Islanders ML:

The rationale is not intuitive to me, as I don't get why a shut-out home win by a losing record team would predict a loss in their next game on the road to a winning team. That is, I'm not sure why they would have a higher likelihood of losing than a losing record team playing away against a winning record team...


p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>52 and season>=2010 and game number<42 and o:WP<50

Confused by your interpretation of the query. i read that query as: a winning record team off a shut out home playing against a losing record team.

edit: nevermind. Saw that u mentioned u tweaked it. God forbid I read the first word of your post

[emceeaye]

Confused by your interpretation of the query. i read that query as: a winning record team off a shut out home playing against a losing record team.

edit: nevermind. Saw that u mentioned u tweaked it. God forbid I read the first word of your post

Hi otunj,

Sorry about that. I had too many rationales for different queries floating around in my head...I mistakenly posted about another query...As you're probably thinking, it makes good enough sense why a winning record team coming off a home shut-out win would win their next game on the road against a losing record team.

[emceeaye]

Rangers/lightning under and lightning ML

Under:

total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and pu margin > -3 and 4.5 > opu margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19 and season>=2012


month = 11 and o:rest = 1 and rest = 1 and total<6 and p:rest<3 and op:rest<3 and H and streak>-4 and site streak<2 and 5>o:site streak>-4

Lightning ML:
total=5.5 and p:faceoffs won=33 and day!=Thursday and day!=Tuesday and 7>streak>-2 and P:margin>-4

[nash13]

did anyone ever figure out how to do ml wp? or how it is different from regular wp?

I think the mentioned WP in the queries is the ML WP and not the regular time WP

[Jay Price]

Solid returns this evening

[emceeaye]

Canucks ML

Here's the query for one of today's Ross Benjamin descriptions that looks good...of course the downside of the results of many of his queries is that his database goes back at least 2x the number of years that the one we use goes back. Unfortunately that creates a liability for us in that the sample size of our results going back to 2006 (the earliest season available to us) is pretty small...However it is promising, and if we take Ross Benjamin at his word, then 75% of a bit larger sample size of games since 1996 is a pretty good WP:

AF and division=o:division and P:W and PP:W and PPP:W and op:HL and op:division=opo:division

add op:margin=-1 for a better record but even smaller sample size.

Any road money line favorite, versus a team that’s playing with same season triple revenge, and is coming off a home loss to a division opponent, has gone 60-19 (75.9%) since 1996.

[moshi]

Wouldn't go huge but I think Sharks have a good chance ML/PL:

total = 5.5 and day != Monday and 0 < p:goals < 6 and op:goals != 6 and 9 > penalties > 0 and 9 > openalties > 0 and penalties + openalties < 12 and 3>streak>-5 and 3>o:streak>-5 and power play goals + opower play goals>0 and (tS(ou margin, N=1)<.01 or tS(ou margin, N=1)>1) and (.5>opu margin>-3 or opu margin>1) and pp:goals<5 and 013 and rest + o:rest<5 and rest+o:rest!=3 and (team=Sharks or o:team=Panthers) and season>=2012


AD and 10 > penalties > 5 and streak < 4 and p:goals != 3 and 48 > p:shots on goal > 15 and day != Sunday and day != Monday and tS(W, N=5) < 4 and 6 > o:streak > -3 and p:margin > -4 and 4.5 = 4.5 and season = 2014 and month = 11


month = 11 and o:rest = 1 and rest = 1 and total<6 and p:rest<3 and op:rest<3 and H and streak>-4 and site streak<2 and 5>o:site streak>-4 and season>=2007 and (team=Sharks or o:team=Panthers)

[escism]

Don't a ton tonight, but I'm leaning towards the Avs. I have 3 situations pointing to them. I also, have 4+ situations pointing towards the Canadiens Under. Anyone else have exciting plays for tonight?

[emceeaye]

Don't a ton tonight, but I'm leaning towards the Avs. I have 3 situations pointing to them. I also, have 4+ situations pointing towards the Canadiens Under. Anyone else have exciting plays for tonight?

My main play is Avalanche ML as well...I'm also on the Kings ml based on a query I don't have handy at the moment. I'm also considering the Canadiens ml based on one of Ross Benjamin's predictions for today

[emceeaye]

Bruins ML

Obvious one based on a winning team coming off a home shutout win in first half of season...this is one that has been posted in this thread previously, that happens to be posted by Ross Benjamin as one of today's picks:

p:HW and po:goals=0 and game number<=42 and 60>=WP>=51and season>=2010

Add day=Friday and month=11 for more specific situational confirmation even though resulting sample size very low...Also supports the under on this game which is consistent with results from one of the queries I have already posted in this thread...don't have it handy at the moment.

Also add op:goals=0 but may have to remove some of the other terms and/or go back in years to increase sample size to something meaningful

Update: several injuries for Bruins keeping key players out for tonight's game...it may be a no-play for me now

[emceeaye]

Lightning ML

Lightning ML is my top NHL pick for today.

Queries:

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010

HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010 and streak<=-2

D and streak>2 and (day=Saturday or day=Wednesday or day=Friday) and season>=2011

D and streak > 3 and day=Saturday and month=11

[zxqwpdbg]

at what point is it generally bad to start taking high priced favourite's?

[emceeaye]

Ducks/Coyotes under

H and total=5.5 and p:goals>=4 and p:AW and P:margin=-1 and season>=2009

add day=Sunday and month=11 separately and see how it does

[emceeaye]

Canucks ML

H and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and op:goals>=4 and opp:goals>=4 and oppp:goals>=4 and season>=2009


add month=11 to improve record, but sample size small

[JMon]

H and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and op:goals>=4 and opp:goals>=4 and oppp:goals>=4 and season>=2009


add month=11 to improve record, but sample size small

just messing around of course

H and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and op:goals>=4 and opp:goals>=4 and oppp:goals>=4 and 2008<=season and 3>rest>0 and o:rest!=1

[emceeaye]

just messing around of course

H and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and op:goals>=4 and opp:goals>=4 and oppp:goals>=4 and 2008<=season and 3>rest>0 and o:rest!=1

Hey, looks good!

Thanks Jmon

[nash13]

p:margin + pp:margin = -1 and p:goals > 1 and pp:goals > 0

here is a good one, could not crack the logic behind this, but fading a team who has played close games in their lat two ones, produced good profit long term

[escism]

just messing around of course

H and po:goals>=3 and ppo:goals>=3 and op:goals>=4 and opp:goals>=4 and oppp:goals>=4 and 2008<=season and 3>rest>0 and o:rest!=1

I wish I would have seen these yesterday... I had 3 situations that pointed to the Blackhawks, and I think we all know how that went. Oh well, still killed it in the NBA last night so I'll let this one slide

[emceeaye]

Predators ML

Tweaked queries from one of Ross Benjamin' picks today:

Play Predators ml:

H and -100>=line>-150 and pvertime=1 and p:W and tA(o:goals)<=2.45 and season>=2010 and op:margin=-1

H and -100 >= line > -150 and pvertime = 1 and p:W and tA(o:goals) <= 2.5 and season >= 2010 and day = Tuesday

H and -100>=line>-150 and pvertime=1 and p:W and tA(o:goals)<=2.55 and season>=2010 and o:rest=2

[escism]

Tweaked queries from one of Ross Benjamin' picks today:

Play Predators ml:

H and -100>=line>-150 and pvertime=1 and p:W and tA(o:goals)<=2.45 and season>=2010 and op:margin=-1

H and -100 >= line > -150 and pvertime = 1 and p:W and tA(o:goals) <= 2.5 and season >= 2010 and day = Tuesday

H and -100>=line>-150 and pvertime=1 and p:W and tA(o:goals)<=2.55 and season>=2010 and o:rest=2

Thanks for those! You know I'm all over my Preds

[emceeaye]

Picks for today

Here are my picks for today based on queries that have been posted in this thread and ones in the spreadsheet:

Maple leafs/Penguins under: 1 unit
Islanders ml: 1 unit
Lightning/Rangers under: 1/2 unit
Rangers ml: 1/2 unit
Panthers/Hurricanes over: 1/2 unit
Wild ml: 1/2 unit
Penguins ml: 1/2 unit
Sharks ml: 1/2 unit

[emceeaye]

Well, I went 2-6 yesterday. Hoping for better NHL days soon.

Here are my picks for today based on queries that have been posted in this thread and ones in the spreadsheet:

Maple leafs/Penguins under: 1 unit
Islanders ml: 1 unit
Lightning/Rangers under: 1/2 unit
Rangers ml: 1/2 unit
Panthers/Hurricanes over: 1/2 unit
Wild ml: 1/2 unit
Penguins ml: 1/2 unit
Sharks ml: 1/2 unit

[emceeaye]

Canucks ML

p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>50 and o:WP<50 and season>=2009 and game number<42

po:goals=0 and p:HF and F and season>=2011

H and D and p:HF and date>=20120116 and day=Friday

po:goals=0 and p:HW and A and season>=2010 and game number<=42 and p:margin>=2

[emceeaye]

Capitals ml

p:goals < 4 and p:W and pp:goals < 4 and pp:W and AD and o:rest=1 and op:margin=-1 and opp:margin=-1

D and streak > 3 and season>=2010 (add day=Friday)

p:streak>2 and day=Friday and p:margin<3 and site!=p:site and rest<3 and site streak>-5 and o:site streak<5 and p:rest<3 and pp:rest<6 and op:margin!=-3 and n:rest<4 and opo:goals>0 and (line<-275 or line>-219)

D and streak>2 and (day=Saturday or day=Wednesday or day=Friday) and season>=2011 and o:streak<=-1