Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[mitch51]

Mornin'


We have family here but liking the UNDER STL/NJ game. I'm still crunching numbers.

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[twestacott]

Another great way to make some good money is to make multiple sperate bets on a couple of games listed here as strong plays (seperate bets and not parlays). For example if there are two good plays what I like to do sometimes is put 2 units on the moneyline and then 1 unit on a Regulation win and depending on the AVG Lead for the game I might even put 1 unit on the Puckline or on -1. You can also take a look at the average goals scored and against of the two teams involved and if one has been scoring a lot of goals in the past few games take a Team Prop on OV2.5 goals. Samething if one of the two teams has been struggling to score you can take a Team Prop on U2.5 goals.

This has worked well for me on games that I felt pretty confident in. If the team you picked wins in OT or shootout you pretty much break even with the ML + PL + REG bet. If they have a strong game like you anticpated and win by 2 or more you are making probably 5-7 units depending on if you played Team props.

Take the St. Louis/ Detroit game from last night. I was pretty confident in St. Louis having a big game against a struggling Detroit team so I took St. Louis for 2 units on the ML plus an additional unit on each of the Puck Line plus a win in regulation. I also played a Team Prop on St. Louis scoring at least 3 goals. I ended up winning something like 7 units on a game I was pretty confident in. Occasionally you do get burned when the team you are confident in shits the bed but more often than not you come out ahead or at least breaking even and when you have a good night its a real good night.

[calmeat]

1/21/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-38 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 76-79 -$59
Bronze($2.50) = 73-62 +$3.91

Game Win %
ML= 391-283 58.01%
ML(Regulation)= 307-84 78.52%
O/U= 87-69 55.77%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 78-80 49.37%
55-59%= 105-71 59.66%
60-64= 96-68 58.54%
65-69%= 68-51 57.14%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 210-136 60.69%
PHI
STL
FLA
COL
ANA

[calmeat]

Flyers game postponed. Its pretty bad here, took my 20 min drive home into 3 hours lots of accidents and cars pulled over to the side. People have no clue how to drive here.

[fataliz]

hi cal, what's your play? isit this?

ana - highest win% among consensus
NYR - highest avg lead
highest odds after eliminating ANA and COL for >-195 is again NYR

[calmeat]

hi cal, what's your play? isit this?

ana - highest win% among consensus
NYR - highest avg lead
highest odds after eliminating ANA and COL for >-195 is again NYR

Yes the Col game right now is too high but waiting to see if it drops. Right. Now you are correct on the plays

[twestacott]

hi cal, what's your play? isit this?

ana - highest win% among consensus
NYR - highest avg lead
highest odds after eliminating ANA and COL for >-195 is again NYR

I wouldnt make a play on Anahiem at all. Thats a lot of juice if they have a bad night. Even in regulation you are still currently only getting -150.

[mitch51]

After crunching numbers these games:

LAK
WAS
CAR
NYR
NJD
FL
MIN
CO
VAN
ANA
UNDER 5 NJ

Some have lines too high so these stand out more:

LAK
WAS
UNDER 5 NJ
FL
MIN

Down to and we may bet some others:

UNDER 5 NJ
MIN



GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

[QUOTE=fataliz;20947266]hi cal, what's your play? isit this?

ana - highest win% among consensus
NYR - highest avg lead
highest odds after eliminating ANA and COL for >-195 is again NYR[/QUOTE

Ill be doing ANA in regulation.

[mitch51]

Uggggghhh UNDER



Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Ah man, glad I changed my tactics last night. Losses for Rangers, Ducks, Blues and Avs is pretty brutal!

Took Canucks REG and ML, and a punt on Ottawa ML as well. New regime is off to a good start! Now I just have to avoid throwing my winnings on a 14 team Saudi Arabian soccer team parlay....

[jnsbanman]

Nice work Rumple... Was a dog night last night for the most part... Which is good news for us today. Short card but a good a card.

[Rumplebeanskin]

I usually run a parlay on short card nights. Not tonight tho!

NO PARLAYS!!!!

[calmeat]

well terrible tuesday is over lets go winner winner wednsday.

1/22/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-38 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 79-80 -$48.75
Bronze($2.50) = 73-63 +$.66

Game Win %
ML= 394-289 57.69%
ML(Regulation)= 310-84 78.68%
O/U= 87-69 55.77%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 78-82 48.75%
55-59%= 107-71 60.11%
60-64= 96-70 57.83%
65-69%= 69-53 56.56%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 211-139 60.29%
PHI
PIT
CHI

[mitch51]

Afternoon


Lines high on a few. I'm thinking no bet today unless we do PHI.

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Chicago REG for me I think.

Table supports it with the numbers
Wings only scored 8 goals in their last 6
Detroit 4-5-1 last 10, and 7-11-7 at home this season
No Howard
No Datsyuk
Chicago had the day off yesterday.

Line is -110, I think that is great value. BOL peeps!

[mitch51]

Afternoon


Lines high on a few. I'm thinking no bet today unless we do PHI.

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

Glad we didn't bet that one!

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Glad we didn't bet that one!

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

I don't mind those losses as much. If that same game came up, with those same circumstances again tonight, I'd bet it again, no problem.

The losses where you can't possibly fathom why your money was on someone, they are the ones that suck lol

[calmeat]

I don't mind those losses as much. If that same game came up, with those same circumstances again tonight, I'd bet it again, no problem.

The losses where you can't possibly fathom why your money was on someone, they are the ones that suck lol

yup totally agree. Jason and i were worried cause whenever a coach calls out his team like DET coach did the team responds and of course they did.

On to today!

[mitch51]

[QUOTE=Rumplebeanskin;20965488]I don't mind those losses as much. If that same game came up, with those same circumstances again tonight, I'd bet it again, no problem.

The losses where you can't possibly fathom why your money was on someone, they are the ones that suck lol[/QUOTE

Actually, Mitch liked Phi and I liked Car because of the goalie playing. Agree on the situation.

GL and back later

Ali

[calmeat]

1/23/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-38 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 79-81 -$57
Bronze($2.50) = 73-63 +$.66

Game Win %
ML= 396-291 57.64%
ML(Regulation)= 311-84 78.73%
O/U= 88-69 56.05%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 78-84 48.15%
55-59%= 107-71 60.11%
60-64= 97-70 58.08%
65-69%= 69-54 56.10%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 212-141 60.06%
CAR
CBJ
PIT
CHI
VAN
ANA
SJS

[mitch51]

Afternoon all

After crunching numbers these are the games that stand out:

STL
CAR
CLB
PITS
TB
TOR
CHI
VAN
ANA
SJ

With some having high lines these stand out more:

STL
CAR
PITS
TB
TOR
CHI
ANA

I am leaning towards these two but will wait until after seeing confirmed goalies, chart etc.

TOR
ANA

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Canes ML £1
Stars ML £2
Sens ML £2

Let's see what happens. Don't like anyone enough to go REG, £5 wins £9.88. Happy Hunting people! Let's go get this!!

[mitch51]

Here's our picks:

PHI/CLB OVER 5.5 -115
ANA -150, normally we won't take a high line but got sucked in.
PITS -130
TOR +120

Betting 1 unit each...

Yeppers good luck to all.

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Peeps, we had a good night.

@Rump for the dawgs. Yeaaa no parlays.


Woot Woot whoever else won.


Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Mornin' all

I don't see any dawgs for today, still crunching numbers with paper, pen and the calculator!

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[twestacott]

Only thing I am really liking is Colorado over Florida tonight.

[RollinDo]

Only thing I am really liking is Colorado over Florida tonight.

I agree.

[mitch51]

Number crunching done:

NJ
MTL
CO
NASH
PHX

These stand out more than others:

CO
PHX

Waiting on confirmed goalies, chart, etc

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

1/24/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-38 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 80-82 -$59
Bronze($2.50) = 76-65 +$4.16

Game Win %
ML= 403-294 57.82%
ML(Regulation)= 317-85 78.86%
O/U= 89-70 55.97%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 80-86 48.19%
55-59%= 108-71 60.34%
60-64= 101-71 58.72%
65-69%= 69-54 56.10%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 217-143 60.28%
NJD
COL
CGY

[mitch51]

NJD line a bit high so going with:

CO -115
PHX -125

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

CO
PHX
2-0


We hope everyone else did well.


Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Mornin' all

For the early morning games these stand out:

CAR noon Eastern
STL 1pm Eastern
BOS 1pm Eastern

No confirmation on goalies yet.
GL Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

early looks

[twestacott]

Mornin' all

For the early morning games these stand out:

CAR noon Eastern
STL 1pm Eastern
BOS 1pm Eastern

No confirmation on goalies yet.
GL Be back later

Ali & Mitch

Agree with the above and for the later games I would add Montreal, Columbus, Pittsburgh and San Jose although some of those lines are high so would probably go with win in regulation except for the Pittsburgh game......

Will be back later to finalize picks