Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • calmeat
    SBR MVP
    • 05-04-11
    • 1678

    #456
    So i have 2 A bets with STL ml Today and 1 C bet with STL Reg today. Really need STL to win in regulation today (A bets meaning first bet in chase and C bet is the 3rd game in the chase)

    Good luck all big card many games to choose from so choose wisely!
    Comment
    • Rumplebeanskin
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-13-13
      • 203

      #457
      Fancied something a bit more exotic, STL -1.5. Fancy with Backes in the line up, and at home, big lift.

      Bit more money to, so fade me now. You have been warned
      Comment
      • mitch51
        SBR MVP
        • 05-15-12
        • 4587

        #458
        I have been busy today so here are the afternoon games; some lines are high but this is what stood out for my list:

        PHI
        STL
        WAS
        DET
        VAN

        GLTA

        Ali & Mitch
        Comment
        • Rumplebeanskin
          SBR High Roller
          • 11-13-13
          • 203

          #459
          Great start lol
          Comment
          • Rumplebeanskin
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-13-13
            • 203

            #460
            Much better 2nd
            Comment
            • Rumplebeanskin
              SBR High Roller
              • 11-13-13
              • 203

              #461
              Go cash it people, yeah!!
              Comment
              • calmeat
                SBR MVP
                • 05-04-11
                • 1678

                #462
                haha, yeah that start had me a little worried, glad that hit cause C bets can get pricey. Good hit for us all.
                Comment
                • calmeat
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-04-11
                  • 1678

                  #463
                  1/5/14
                  Value Plays
                  Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
                  Silver($5.00) = 65-73 -$76.75
                  Bronze($2.50) = 58-50 +$5.54

                  Game Win %
                  ML= 330-238 58.10%
                  ML(Regulation)= 258-71 78.42%
                  O/U= 74-60 55.22%

                  Game Win % breakdown
                  50-54%= 62-63 49.60%
                  55-59%= 88-61 59.06%
                  60-64= 78-56 58.21%
                  65-69%= 61-45 57.55%
                  70+%= 42-11 79.25%

                  Consensus 171-110 60.85%
                  PIT
                  ANA
                  CHI

                  Comment
                  • mitch51
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-15-12
                    • 4587

                    #464
                    I'm still crunching numbers and Pit line too high.

                    Be back later.

                    Ali & Mitch
                    Comment
                    • mitch51
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-15-12
                      • 4587

                      #465
                      The games that top my list after checking chart/categories/guidelines are:

                      Vanucks +145
                      TB -140
                      Under 5.5 TB -110
                      SJ Sharks +140
                      Over 5.5 SJ Sharks -125

                      I don't like taking lines above -145 and that might be pushing it. Also betting in regulation, our local bookie doesn't have that option. As a reminder, we are straight flat bettors.

                      GLTA

                      Ali & Mitch
                      Comment
                      • 16kredit
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 11-16-13
                        • 572

                        #466
                        Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102
                        Comment
                        • thedazzler18
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 12-17-13
                          • 9

                          #467
                          Hi,

                          I see you are doing a fine job with your NHL picks. I want to follow you from now on but it's unclear for me what picks are. European vs USA difference probably

                          Offcourse I understand units etc. I saw something with gold, silver, bronze picks and consensus. What should I take in the future?

                          And Mitch, do you have stats too?

                          Thanks in advance,

                          Tom
                          Comment
                          • mitch51
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-15-12
                            • 4587

                            #468
                            Originally posted by 16kredit
                            Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102
                            I would take Pit in regulation but partial to dawgs.

                            Ali
                            Comment
                            • calmeat
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-04-11
                              • 1678

                              #469
                              So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
                              Top win%
                              Top Consensus Win%
                              Highest Avg Lead
                              Comment
                              • calmeat
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-04-11
                                • 1678

                                #470
                                Originally posted by thedazzler18
                                Hi,

                                I see you are doing a fine job with your NHL picks. I want to follow you from now on but it's unclear for me what picks are. European vs USA difference probably

                                Offcourse I understand units etc. I saw something with gold, silver, bronze picks and consensus. What should I take in the future?

                                And Mitch, do you have stats too?

                                Thanks in advance,

                                Tom
                                Dazzler, Out of the Gold silver and bronze plays the Gold plays have been the only profitable selection. Right now I am playing
                                Top Game Win % (today it was PIT 65%)
                                Top Consensus Game Win % (Today it was PIT 65%)
                                Highest Avg Lead (Today it was PIT at .9)

                                I usually play the first 2 for more then the Avg lead category. I would say 1 unit each for the first 2 plays and .5 unit on Highest Avg Lead.

                                These are chase bets so be careful with what you make your unit size. I am playing 2.5% of my BR as the unit
                                Comment
                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-13-13
                                  • 203

                                  #471
                                  Originally posted by calmeat
                                  So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
                                  Top win%
                                  Top Consensus Win%
                                  Highest Avg Lead
                                  Nice work!! Fun game as well, but not so much when you have your cash on it!

                                  I took Penguins REG but coupled it with Bengals NFL, and they have had a total meltdown today in the 2nd half. Won 70% of my bankroll on 2 soccer parlays today tho, it has been a cracker of a day!
                                  Comment
                                  • mitch51
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-15-12
                                    • 4587

                                    #472
                                    Originally posted by 16kredit
                                    Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102
                                    No, I wouldn't take Anaheim as it doesn't fall into the categories mentioned and I like the other side. IMO
                                    Also if the goalie is changed from Luongo to Lack I wouldn't bet Vanucks. Hope this helps.

                                    Ali
                                    Comment
                                    • 16kredit
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-16-13
                                      • 572

                                      #473
                                      Okay, thank you for the answer, I ended up taking ANA to win, hope they stay undefeated at home.
                                      Comment
                                      • mitch51
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-15-12
                                        • 4587

                                        #474
                                        Originally posted by 16kredit
                                        Okay, thank you for the answer, I ended up taking ANA to win, hope they stay undefeated at home.

                                        Way to go!

                                        Ali & Mitch
                                        Comment
                                        • mitch51
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-15-12
                                          • 4587

                                          #475
                                          Originally posted by calmeat
                                          So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
                                          Top win%
                                          Top Consensus Win%
                                          Highest Avg Lead

                                          Kooooolaroo!!!



                                          Ali & Mitch
                                          Comment
                                          • mitch51
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-15-12
                                            • 4587

                                            #476
                                            Originally posted by Rumplebeanskin
                                            Nice work!! Fun game as well, but not so much when you have your cash on it!

                                            I took Penguins REG but coupled it with Bengals NFL, and they have had a total meltdown today in the 2nd half. Won 70% of my bankroll on 2 soccer parlays today tho, it has been a cracker of a day!

                                            Ya, we had the Bengals too. Way to go on the parlay although a parlay is far and few between.

                                            Ali & Mitch
                                            Comment
                                            • mitch51
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-15-12
                                              • 4587

                                              #477
                                              DAL
                                              CLB
                                              MTL
                                              CO

                                              Lines are high on a few but I am waiting on the chart to decide on the bets.

                                              GL

                                              Ali & Mitch
                                              Comment
                                              • calmeat
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-04-11
                                                • 1678

                                                #478
                                                1/6/14
                                                Value Plays
                                                Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
                                                Silver($5.00) = 65-73 -$76.75
                                                Bronze($2.50) = 58-51 -$9.17

                                                Game Win %
                                                ML= 333-240 58.12%
                                                ML(Regulation)= 261-72 78.38%
                                                O/U= 77-62 55.40%

                                                Game Win % breakdown
                                                50-54%= 63-63 50%
                                                55-59%= 88-61 59.06%
                                                60-64= 79-58 57.66%
                                                65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
                                                70+%= 42-11 79.25%

                                                Consensus 174-111 61.05%
                                                DAL
                                                MTL
                                                COL

                                                Comment
                                                • thedazzler18
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 12-17-13
                                                  • 9

                                                  #479
                                                  So consensus means no real picks yet?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • calmeat
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-04-11
                                                    • 1678

                                                    #480
                                                    Originally posted by thedazzler18
                                                    So consensus means no real picks yet?
                                                    So dazzler,
                                                    Looking at the sheet the play for
                                                    Top Game win % = COL
                                                    Top Consensus Game win% = COL
                                                    Highest Avg Lead = COL

                                                    So tonight all my plays are with COL. Since the line is under 200 both Game win% and Consensus game win% bets will be ML
                                                    Avg Lead bet is COL in regulation.

                                                    Those are my plays.

                                                    Mitch and Jason may have different/more plays then that though.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • thedazzler18
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 12-17-13
                                                      • 9

                                                      #481
                                                      Ok thanks. That clears things up a bit.

                                                      Sorry for bothering you but one thing is still not clear. What is Avg lead bet? Is there another term for it or are asian and european bookies just not offering it?

                                                      Thanks
                                                      Comment
                                                      • calmeat
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-04-11
                                                        • 1678

                                                        #482
                                                        Originally posted by thedazzler18
                                                        Ok thanks. That clears things up a bit.

                                                        Sorry for bothering you but one thing is still not clear. What is Avg lead bet? Is there another term for it or are asian and european bookies just not offering it?

                                                        Thanks
                                                        the bet for Avg lead would be a Regulation Bet. So for 5 dimes which i use for tonight it is
                                                        Colorado Avalanche (1st 60 min) -½ -132* vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min)

                                                        What im doing is saying that the avg lead for COL is close to 1 goal so if that is true they have a good chance of winning the game in regulation time and not going to OT. Of course it doesnt always happen but its been pretty good so far. I will bet 1/2 unit on that and then chase it for a 3 game chase.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • thedazzler18
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 12-17-13
                                                          • 9

                                                          #483
                                                          Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

                                                          How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

                                                          I'm really sorry, stupid me
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jnsbanman
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 01-08-11
                                                            • 526

                                                            #484
                                                            Originally posted by calmeat
                                                            So dazzler,
                                                            Looking at the sheet the play for
                                                            Top Game win % = COL
                                                            Top Consensus Game win% = COL
                                                            Highest Avg Lead = COL

                                                            So tonight all my plays are with COL. Since the line is under 200 both Game win% and Consensus game win% bets will be ML
                                                            Avg Lead bet is COL in regulation.

                                                            Those are my plays.

                                                            Mitch and Jason may have different/more plays then that though.
                                                            Nope I'm on AVs ML.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • calmeat
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-04-11
                                                              • 1678

                                                              #485
                                                              Originally posted by thedazzler18
                                                              Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

                                                              How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

                                                              I'm really sorry, stupid me
                                                              The bets are based on the Chart I post. there is a column Game Win% so we just choose the top one. Then we choose the top one that is also a consensus.

                                                              As for the gold silver bronze bets The only profitable one so far is Gold, I would stay away from those bets they havent done well lately.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Rumplebeanskin
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 11-13-13
                                                                • 203

                                                                #486
                                                                Originally posted by thedazzler18
                                                                Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

                                                                How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

                                                                I'm really sorry, stupid me
                                                                All 3 are determined using the chart that Calmeat posted today at 7:11pm, post 748. He posts a table like that every day.

                                                                If you look at the column called "Game Win %", based on the analysis that Calmeat runs, each game has a win percentage out of 100% for both teams in a given match up based on a large number of factors. The team with the highest win % out of every team playing is the one used for the top game win % bet on a given day. Today, that bet is filled by Colorado, they have a 64% game win percentage.

                                                                For the consensus bet, Calmeat posted those just above where the table is in the same post. He runs a secondary system to look at each game, as well as the one he posts a table for. The consensus win % pick is the team in the table with the best win % that ALSO came up as a winner in his secondary system.

                                                                The average lead bet is worked out using the AVG LEAD column. Whoever has the highest number gets the bet. For today, it is Colorado again at 0.7.

                                                                All bets are worked out using the table that Calmeat posts daily. He is awesome like that The only info that isn't posted is his secondary system for creating consensus picks. He simply lists the team that came up as winners on both systems under the heading "consensus"

                                                                As for the gold, silver and bronze picks, there is one silver pick today and that is all. You will see next to Florida in Calmeat's table, their little circle is coloured grey, or silver. This is an indicator of perceived value based on a team's odds on a given night. As you can see from the top of post 748, neither bronze value or silver value picks have made money this season, but gold is up $70. The bet colours are purely to show value, but NOT win potential. That is best illustrated by game win %

                                                                Unless I'm wrong lol
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Rumplebeanskin
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-13-13
                                                                  • 203

                                                                  #487
                                                                  As for me, I just don't like the COL lines. Even in REG the line still isn't luring me in. Instead, short card, I'm going for a New York double based on the following from the main SBR site:

                                                                  We are going to base our NHL picks off of a strong betting system that looks to fit this scenario perfectly. Any home team that comes off a win by 4-goals or more, versus an opponent that allowed 6-goals or more in their previous game, has gone 26-4 (86.7%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 year.

                                                                  Free Pick: Rangers -145 over the Blue Jackets
                                                                  And

                                                                  Any home favorite playing in the month of January, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 2-goals or more, has gone 43-10 (81.1%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season. Using this syster, we believe that the best choice for our NHL picks is to back the Islanders as small favorites.

                                                                  Free Pick: Islanders -120 over the Stars
                                                                  Plays out at +218 as a 2 team parlay, so around 2/1. I can give that a little bit of money I think. I do always wonder how good their "Super System" really is. Guess we'll see!

                                                                  Oh, and a cheeky little side bet on the Panthers. Habs have been poor at home recently, so has Price. Just a hunch, bit of a flier really! May have taken the over, but went Florida ML instead.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • calmeat
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-04-11
                                                                    • 1678

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Rumple you are right on your post about how im getting picks.

                                                                    Also for the picks you are playing those 2 popped out at me right away to play and if i wasnt trying to be disciplined i would be putting money on those both as well.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Rumplebeanskin
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-13-13
                                                                      • 203

                                                                      #489
                                                                      I think it has been displayed many times already that I have about as much discipline as a fat kid in a cake shop

                                                                      GO NEW YORK!! lol
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • mitch51
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-15-12
                                                                        • 4587

                                                                        #490
                                                                        Av's line high. I like Dallas Stars -110 and CLBlue Jackets +135.

                                                                        Mitch wants to know...Does betting baseball dogs correlate with betting hockey dogs? These underdogs in hockey appear to be pretty lucrative all depending on how you screen out games.

                                                                        We strickly bet underdogs in baseball, it's one of the best ways to make money. Hopefully, the same will be true in hockey.

                                                                        The same will happen with hockey we hope.

                                                                        GLTA

                                                                        Ali & Mitch
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...