Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

So i have 2 A bets with STL ml Today and 1 C bet with STL Reg today. Really need STL to win in regulation today (A bets meaning first bet in chase and C bet is the 3rd game in the chase)

Good luck all big card many games to choose from so choose wisely!

[Rumplebeanskin]

Fancied something a bit more exotic, STL -1.5. Fancy with Backes in the line up, and at home, big lift.

Bit more money to, so fade me now. You have been warned

[mitch51]

I have been busy today so here are the afternoon games; some lines are high but this is what stood out for my list:

PHI
STL
WAS
DET
VAN

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Great start lol

[Rumplebeanskin]

Much better 2nd

[Rumplebeanskin]

Go cash it people, yeah!!

[calmeat]

haha, yeah that start had me a little worried, glad that hit cause C bets can get pricey. Good hit for us all.

[calmeat]

1/5/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 65-73 -$76.75
Bronze($2.50) = 58-50 +$5.54

Game Win %
ML= 330-238 58.10%
ML(Regulation)= 258-71 78.42%
O/U= 74-60 55.22%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 62-63 49.60%
55-59%= 88-61 59.06%
60-64= 78-56 58.21%
65-69%= 61-45 57.55%
70+%= 42-11 79.25%

Consensus 171-110 60.85%
PIT
ANA
CHI

[mitch51]

I'm still crunching numbers and Pit line too high.

Be back later.

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

The games that top my list after checking chart/categories/guidelines are:

Vanucks +145
TB -140
Under 5.5 TB -110
SJ Sharks +140
Over 5.5 SJ Sharks -125

I don't like taking lines above -145 and that might be pushing it. Also betting in regulation, our local bookie doesn't have that option. As a reminder, we are straight flat bettors.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[16kredit]

Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102

[thedazzler18]

Hi,

I see you are doing a fine job with your NHL picks. I want to follow you from now on but it's unclear for me what picks are. European vs USA difference probably

Offcourse I understand units etc. I saw something with gold, silver, bronze picks and consensus. What should I take in the future?

And Mitch, do you have stats too?

Thanks in advance,

Tom

[mitch51]

Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102

I would take Pit in regulation but partial to dawgs.

Ali

[calmeat]

So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
Top win%
Top Consensus Win%
Highest Avg Lead

[calmeat]

Hi,

I see you are doing a fine job with your NHL picks. I want to follow you from now on but it's unclear for me what picks are. European vs USA difference probably

Offcourse I understand units etc. I saw something with gold, silver, bronze picks and consensus. What should I take in the future?

And Mitch, do you have stats too?

Thanks in advance,

Tom

Dazzler, Out of the Gold silver and bronze plays the Gold plays have been the only profitable selection. Right now I am playing
Top Game Win % (today it was PIT 65%)
Top Consensus Game Win % (Today it was PIT 65%)
Highest Avg Lead (Today it was PIT at .9)

I usually play the first 2 for more then the Avg lead category. I would say 1 unit each for the first 2 plays and .5 unit on Highest Avg Lead.

These are chase bets so be careful with what you make your unit size. I am playing 2.5% of my BR as the unit

[Rumplebeanskin]

So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
Top win%
Top Consensus Win%
Highest Avg Lead

Nice work!! Fun game as well, but not so much when you have your cash on it!

I took Penguins REG but coupled it with Bengals NFL, and they have had a total meltdown today in the 2nd half. Won 70% of my bankroll on 2 soccer parlays today tho, it has been a cracker of a day!

[mitch51]

Mitch if you could bet in regulation, would you take Anaheim -0,5 reg? pays -102

No, I wouldn't take Anaheim as it doesn't fall into the categories mentioned and I like the other side. IMO
Also if the goalie is changed from Luongo to Lack I wouldn't bet Vanucks. Hope this helps.

Ali

[16kredit]

Okay, thank you for the answer, I ended up taking ANA to win, hope they stay undefeated at home.

[mitch51]

Okay, thank you for the answer, I ended up taking ANA to win, hope they stay undefeated at home.

Way to go!

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

So i ended up playing PIT in all 3 catagories. Since the line was over -200 i played pit in regulation for all catagories. Nothing like an early win so i can take it easy the rest of the day.
Top win%
Top Consensus Win%
Highest Avg Lead

Kooooolaroo!!!



Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Nice work!! Fun game as well, but not so much when you have your cash on it!

I took Penguins REG but coupled it with Bengals NFL, and they have had a total meltdown today in the 2nd half. Won 70% of my bankroll on 2 soccer parlays today tho, it has been a cracker of a day!

Ya, we had the Bengals too. Way to go on the parlay although a parlay is far and few between.

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

DAL
CLB
MTL
CO

Lines are high on a few but I am waiting on the chart to decide on the bets.

GL

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

1/6/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 37-33 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 65-73 -$76.75
Bronze($2.50) = 58-51 -$9.17

Game Win %
ML= 333-240 58.12%
ML(Regulation)= 261-72 78.38%
O/U= 77-62 55.40%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 63-63 50%
55-59%= 88-61 59.06%
60-64= 79-58 57.66%
65-69%= 63-45 58.33%
70+%= 42-11 79.25%

Consensus 174-111 61.05%
DAL
MTL
COL

[thedazzler18]

So consensus means no real picks yet?

[calmeat]

So consensus means no real picks yet?

So dazzler,
Looking at the sheet the play for
Top Game win % = COL
Top Consensus Game win% = COL
Highest Avg Lead = COL

So tonight all my plays are with COL. Since the line is under 200 both Game win% and Consensus game win% bets will be ML
Avg Lead bet is COL in regulation.

Those are my plays.

Mitch and Jason may have different/more plays then that though.

[thedazzler18]

Ok thanks. That clears things up a bit.

Sorry for bothering you but one thing is still not clear. What is Avg lead bet? Is there another term for it or are asian and european bookies just not offering it?

Thanks

[calmeat]

Ok thanks. That clears things up a bit.

Sorry for bothering you but one thing is still not clear. What is Avg lead bet? Is there another term for it or are asian and european bookies just not offering it?

Thanks

the bet for Avg lead would be a Regulation Bet. So for 5 dimes which i use for tonight it is
Colorado Avalanche (1st 60 min) -½ -132* vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min)

What im doing is saying that the avg lead for COL is close to 1 goal so if that is true they have a good chance of winning the game in regulation time and not going to OT. Of course it doesnt always happen but its been pretty good so far. I will bet 1/2 unit on that and then chase it for a 3 game chase.

[thedazzler18]

Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

I'm really sorry, stupid me

[jnsbanman]

So dazzler,
Looking at the sheet the play for
Top Game win % = COL
Top Consensus Game win% = COL
Highest Avg Lead = COL

So tonight all my plays are with COL. Since the line is under 200 both Game win% and Consensus game win% bets will be ML
Avg Lead bet is COL in regulation.

Those are my plays.

Mitch and Jason may have different/more plays then that though.

Nope I'm on AVs ML.

[calmeat]

Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

I'm really sorry, stupid me

The bets are based on the Chart I post. there is a column Game Win% so we just choose the top one. Then we choose the top one that is also a consensus.

As for the gold silver bronze bets The only profitable one so far is Gold, I would stay away from those bets they havent done well lately.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Thanks took it Pinnacle -1/2 @ -120.

How do you determine what bets to play at Top game win %, Top Consensus game win % and Avg Lead? And are these gold bets or how should I see those gold/silver/bronze bets in relation to the ones just mentioned?

I'm really sorry, stupid me

All 3 are determined using the chart that Calmeat posted today at 7:11pm, post 748. He posts a table like that every day.

If you look at the column called "Game Win %", based on the analysis that Calmeat runs, each game has a win percentage out of 100% for both teams in a given match up based on a large number of factors. The team with the highest win % out of every team playing is the one used for the top game win % bet on a given day. Today, that bet is filled by Colorado, they have a 64% game win percentage.

For the consensus bet, Calmeat posted those just above where the table is in the same post. He runs a secondary system to look at each game, as well as the one he posts a table for. The consensus win % pick is the team in the table with the best win % that ALSO came up as a winner in his secondary system.

The average lead bet is worked out using the AVG LEAD column. Whoever has the highest number gets the bet. For today, it is Colorado again at 0.7.

All bets are worked out using the table that Calmeat posts daily. He is awesome like that The only info that isn't posted is his secondary system for creating consensus picks. He simply lists the team that came up as winners on both systems under the heading "consensus"

As for the gold, silver and bronze picks, there is one silver pick today and that is all. You will see next to Florida in Calmeat's table, their little circle is coloured grey, or silver. This is an indicator of perceived value based on a team's odds on a given night. As you can see from the top of post 748, neither bronze value or silver value picks have made money this season, but gold is up $70. The bet colours are purely to show value, but NOT win potential. That is best illustrated by game win %

Unless I'm wrong lol

[Rumplebeanskin]

As for me, I just don't like the COL lines. Even in REG the line still isn't luring me in. Instead, short card, I'm going for a New York double based on the following from the main SBR site:

We are going to base our NHL picks off of a strong betting system that looks to fit this scenario perfectly. Any home team that comes off a win by 4-goals or more, versus an opponent that allowed 6-goals or more in their previous game, has gone 26-4 (86.7%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 year.

Free Pick: Rangers -145 over the Blue Jackets

And

Any home favorite playing in the month of January, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 2-goals or more, has gone 43-10 (81.1%) versus the money line since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season. Using this syster, we believe that the best choice for our NHL picks is to back the Islanders as small favorites.

Free Pick: Islanders -120 over the Stars

Plays out at +218 as a 2 team parlay, so around 2/1. I can give that a little bit of money I think. I do always wonder how good their "Super System" really is. Guess we'll see!

Oh, and a cheeky little side bet on the Panthers. Habs have been poor at home recently, so has Price. Just a hunch, bit of a flier really! May have taken the over, but went Florida ML instead.

[calmeat]

Rumple you are right on your post about how im getting picks.

Also for the picks you are playing those 2 popped out at me right away to play and if i wasnt trying to be disciplined i would be putting money on those both as well.

[Rumplebeanskin]

I think it has been displayed many times already that I have about as much discipline as a fat kid in a cake shop

GO NEW YORK!! lol

[mitch51]

Av's line high. I like Dallas Stars -110 and CLBlue Jackets +135.

Mitch wants to know...Does betting baseball dogs correlate with betting hockey dogs? These underdogs in hockey appear to be pretty lucrative all depending on how you screen out games.

We strickly bet underdogs in baseball, it's one of the best ways to make money. Hopefully, the same will be true in hockey.

The same will happen with hockey we hope.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch