LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Prize Marlin]

Thanks LTA!

[Time2Score]

Thanks for the input LTA! I think my local is -130 for this sweetheart teaser. Risking 65 to win 50. I'm predicting the USC game to be around 42-7 or maybe a 35-10 game. Thought about playing the under instead of USC...but I couldn't pull the trigger knowing that weather might play a bigger factor than I expect and USC might just go off on the Buffs. You should look into the Hawaii game as a side though LTA. You can call me a homer, but our team at home is a way better wager than on the road. Lines at -3.5 right now, but I see them winning by at least 13. Hard to beleive after we edged Idaho 16-14 last week.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the input LTA! I think my local is -130 for this sweetheart teaser. Risking 65 to win 50. I'm predicting the USC game to be around 42-7 or maybe a 35-10 game. Thought about playing the under instead of USC...but I couldn't pull the trigger knowing that weather might play a bigger factor than I expect and USC might just go off on the Buffs. You should look into the Hawaii game as a side though LTA. You can call me a homer, but our team at home is a way better wager than on the road. Lines at -3.5 right now, but I see them winning by at least 13. Hard to beleive after we edged Idaho 16-14 last week.

I lean hawaii but have not capped that game in full yet.

[House]

LTA good morning ...I've been on a roll , and could really use your insight on this one.Im looking for some opinions .. what do you think

I've been playing 3 team teasers during the week days with great success ,I hit my 3 team 12pt teaser again last night,thats 4 straight 3 team 12 point teasers .....tonight I like USC to smash on Colorado , so -8 sounds good....I like Central Florida (the better team +13 to cover).....here's were I'm kinda stuck ..I do like over 31 in the CF/Kent game...or do I go under 53?...or is there a better route as far as the #3 goes ...Im locked in on the other two........what do you think...I play these to win $500 each... Any help or opinions would be very much appreciated ....GL tonight either way LTA....keep getting that money !!!

[NYSportsGuy210]

Be careful with that Washington-Oregon OVER.

[Time2Score]

Good to hear you leaning this way!! Looking forward to your decision bro!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play we might add to our stake on as the week progresses. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #7

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

Writeups later. Good luck.

Play #8

Missouri/Baylor over (73) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Kansas State/OSU over (69) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come. Good luck.

Play #10

Correlated Teaser

Kent State (+5)/under (48.5) 1.1x to win 1x

I am going to make this an official play for a full 1x. I am already on the under at 43 and I have Kent State set at -3. I am still contemplating a play on Kent State at -1. That would really have me "loaded up" on this game and I'm not sure I want to go there yet. Still, as I stated in my writeup on my under play, there is a strong correlation between Kent State and the under. Plus, most bets are coming in on CMU and over, so we have a nice public fade here as well. I love it when the stats. My model and my capping come in on the other side of where the majority of action lies (aka the "public" but I hate those terms). Anyway, I'm off to work and don't have time for an in-depth writeup, but even though we are violating certain teaser rules by crossing zero and teasing a total, we are also covering Kent State on the key numbers of 3, 1, and 4 and getting a push on 5. Plus, we push the total up to cover the key numbers of 44, 45, 47 & 48. I think a tease in this situation is warranted when there is such a strong correlation between a team winning and the total. Consequently, I am rolling with the correlated teaser with Kent State and the under for 1x. I may still play Kent State at -1. Good luck.

Play #11

Kent State (-1) 1x (Locked)

I love Kent State and the under as a strong correlation so I am playing that game accordingly. 1x each on KS, the under and teasing them both. Busy day at work, but I will try to post my plays as I lock them in. Good luck.

[Time2Score]

Glad to see you pulled the trigger on Kent LTA! Hopefully that'll hit and we both win!

[Donnie Brasco]

Let me preface this by saying i am not a homer of lsu by any means. In fact i hate them. I am a gator fan having a rough year. Where i think the difference will be made in the bama game is lsu's ability to pressure with 4, and the ability of this secondary to take the ball away. Richardson and mcarron have not seen a defense like this. They are so deep with no dropoff. They are hard hitting as anyone. Special teams edge goes to lsu as well. This will be a battle of field position and lsu's punter is among the best. I know the public loves lsu and all that, but i just dont see it. The traditional stats favor bama, but what surprised me was the edge in advanced stats. Though not much, i think bama was 1 and 1 in f/+ and s/p+, to lsu at 2and 3 respectively if i am not mistaken. Lsu has played stiff competition. They dismantled oregon and west va. People will say that a kick return put west va away, and i agree. But special teams and def tds are no fluke for this team. My model had bama by 6.8. I am throwing the model out. Lsu has an intangible. I dont know what it is, but its real. Lsu +5, and +165 for me. Best of luck LTA and all of the contributors to the best forum on sbr, and all the way to pluto as far as i can see!

[Donnie Brasco]

P.s. My model has usc destroying colorado tonight. They are dominant in all adv stats, buffs Are a mash unit, and usc is angry after last week! They cover the 21 by half imo. Public all over colorado??? Anyone else have a strong lean to eastern mich? My model says so. Just curious what u guys had. Thanks!

[No coincidences]

P.s. My model has usc destroying colorado tonight. They are dominant in all adv stats, buffs Are a mash unit, and usc is angry after last week! They cover the 21 by half imo. Public all over colorado??? Anyone else have a strong lean to eastern mich? My model says so. Just curious what u guys had. Thanks!

Where are you seeing this?

[Donnie Brasco]

I meant to say usc, referring to the fact that it did not bother me as far as being a square. Thanks for catching that.

[No coincidences]

I meant to say usc, referring to the fact that it did not bother me as far as being a square. Thanks for catching that.

No problem.

I know USC is the play on paper Donnie, but I find it hard to believe they'll do anything but sleepwalk through this game.

[Trivial]

Wow. How did the Kent State total get to 44? Large Over bet?

[Donnie Brasco]

No problem.

I know USC is the play on paper Donnie, but I find it hard to believe they'll do anything but sleepwalk through this game.

I greatly appreciate ur opinion no coin! But everyone thought the same of fla st last night too. I saw a far better team against junk and took advantage, especially with "sharp" bc money putting it below two scores. This is just superiority vs. impotence. They can sleepwalk to 30+ margin of victory imo! Best of luck as always

[Donnie Brasco]

Just hit usc again -20 @ 5dimes. Maybe huge mistake but i learn the hard way!

[bigkrezca32]

Let me preface this by saying i am not a homer of lsu by any means. In fact i hate them. I am a gator fan having a rough year. Where i think the difference will be made in the bama game is lsu's ability to pressure with 4, and the ability of this secondary to take the ball away. Richardson and mcarron have not seen a defense like this. They are so deep with no dropoff. They are hard hitting as anyone. Special teams edge goes to lsu as well. This will be a battle of field position and lsu's punter is among the best. I know the public loves lsu and all that, but i just dont see it. The traditional stats favor bama, but what surprised me was the edge in advanced stats. Though not much, i think bama was 1 and 1 in f/+ and s/p+, to lsu at 2and 3 respectively if i am not mistaken. Lsu has played stiff competition. They dismantled oregon and west va. People will say that a kick return put west va away, and i agree. But special teams and def tds are no fluke for this team. My model had bama by 6.8. I am throwing the model out. Lsu has an intangible. I dont know what it is, but its real. Lsu +5, and +165 for me. Best of luck LTA and all of the contributors to the best forum on sbr, and all the way to pluto as far as i can see!

Advanced stats show Alabama as a better running team (#2 vs #38 SP+) and a nearly equivalent passing team (#8 vs #7 SP+), combining to make them the more efficient offensive team (#3 vs #15 in total offense SP+).

Defensively, the teams are very similar (Ala #1 vs LSU #2 SP+ rush D, Alabama #14 vs LSU #2 SP+ pass D, Ala #1 and LSU #2 SP+ Total D). Despite LSU being more efficient vs the pass in general, Alabama has the slightly better total D in both standard down situations (#1 vs #3 for LSU) and in passing down situations (#3 vs #7).

Of course, being a Chicago Bears fan, I can't underestimate the importance of special teams. LSU by any measure is the best in the country, by far, in that phase of the game. Advanced stats show LSU has the most efficient special teams unit in the country (4.779 STE for LSU...#2 is Texas at 3.793!!!). Alabama checks in #46 (STE .680)....If this games turns out to be a lower scoring, defensive game, as most expect, this ST advantage could really work in LSU's favor.

Last week I said that if LSU got 3.5 or more, I'd take LSU with the points....now, I'm leaning Alabama with the home field advantage.

In reality, I probably won't bet this game but will rather sit down and simply enjoy watching the 2 best teams in CFB.

[Dexter]

big weekend LTA - glad to see you on some of my larger plays.

[peterrr]

what do you think about the TCU / Wyoming UNDER 57.5? Weather is expected to be bad so this might be a good pick

[riffraff24]

Glad you posted that kent teaser! I locked it in last night. GL man thanks for the picks!

[lfep]

Two Q's LTA:

1. What are you most "confident" in, your teaser or Kent -1 plus the under in a parlay? I guess the obvious is the teaser since it covers you pretty well, but you're doing it separately, what's your take on parlaying Kent -1 plus the under?

2. If you were to rank your plays (outside of the two you've won) what would it look like?

Great job this week and thanks as always.

PS - just a little background, I usually play Friday games to load up on extra BR for Saturday/Sunday, although if I just don't like something on Friday, I don't play it, but I've been looking at the Kent St. game all week! For example, I'm staying away from the USC game, way too many variables. If it were on a Saturday, I might.

[rcjiii]

Kent State OU has risen a point to 44. Took some on LTA's advice. Looks pretty solid to me. Still considering the -1 1/2. Is anyone else enthusiastic about KS, giving the points?

[lfep]

Oooo, looks even better ar 44.

I REALLY want to do a 3-pick parlay of Kent -1.5, Kent Under and 1H USC -13 (looks better than the -22 and the O/U), but I'm considering the teaser just to be on the safe side.

[Love The Action]

Be careful with that Washington-Oregon OVER.

Based on what?

[Love The Action]

Nov 04CFB [312] KENT STATE +12-110 (B+13)
Nov 04CFB [312] TOTAL u55½-110 (B+13) (CENTRAL MICHIGAN vrs KENT STATE)
Nov 04CFB [313] USC -8½-110 (B+13)

Risking 70.00 USD To Win 50.00 USD

The 4th pic is open, I will probably use it on OKSU Saturday.

Good luck...im not a fan of those types of plays because of the poor odds...

[Love The Action]

LTA good morning ...I've been on a roll , and could really use your insight on this one.Im looking for some opinions .. what do you think

I've been playing 3 team teasers during the week days with great success ,I hit my 3 team 12pt teaser again last night,thats 4 straight 3 team 12 point teasers .....tonight I like USC to smash on Colorado , so -8 sounds good....I like Central Florida (the better team +13 to cover).....here's were I'm kinda stuck ..I do like over 31 in the CF/Kent game...or do I go under 53?...or is there a better route as far as the #3 goes ...Im locked in on the other two........what do you think...I play these to win $500 each... Any help or opinions would be very much appreciated ....GL tonight either way LTA....keep getting that money !!!

Im on the under...good luck

[Love The Action]

Let me preface this by saying i am not a homer of lsu by any means. In fact i hate them. I am a gator fan having a rough year. Where i think the difference will be made in the bama game is lsu's ability to pressure with 4, and the ability of this secondary to take the ball away. Richardson and mcarron have not seen a defense like this. They are so deep with no dropoff. They are hard hitting as anyone. Special teams edge goes to lsu as well. This will be a battle of field position and lsu's punter is among the best. I know the public loves lsu and all that, but i just dont see it. The traditional stats favor bama, but what surprised me was the edge in advanced stats. Though not much, i think bama was 1 and 1 in f/+ and s/p+, to lsu at 2and 3 respectively if i am not mistaken. Lsu has played stiff competition. They dismantled oregon and west va. People will say that a kick return put west va away, and i agree. But special teams and def tds are no fluke for this team. My model had bama by 6.8. I am throwing the model out. Lsu has an intangible. I dont know what it is, but its real. Lsu +5, and +165 for me. Best of luck LTA and all of the contributors to the best forum on sbr, and all the way to pluto as far as i can see!

Good luck donnie...i think there is more to it than that, but not sure if I'm playing this one quite yet...got a little more work to do

[Love The Action]

Wow. How did the Kent State total get to 44? Large Over bet?

80% of all bets on the over deluged the books this morning. They are just evening out the action. I expect late money on the under dropping this back to 43 or less. GL Triv

[Love The Action]

big weekend LTA - glad to see you on some of my larger plays.

Same here. Good luck Dex

[Trivial]

80% of all bets on the over deluged the books this morning. They are just evening out the action. I expect late money on the under dropping this back to 43 or less. GL Triv

GL to you my main man. You deserve this. I picked a bad time to get sick and not wagering. Just following and learning. Your hard work is paying off.

[Love The Action]

Advanced stats show Alabama as a better running team (#2 vs #38 SP+) and a nearly equivalent passing team (#8 vs #7 SP+), combining to make them the more efficient offensive team (#3 vs #15 in total offense SP+).

Defensively, the teams are very similar (Ala #1 vs LSU #2 SP+ rush D, Alabama #14 vs LSU #2 SP+ pass D, Ala #1 and LSU #2 SP+ Total D). Despite LSU being more efficient vs the pass in general, Alabama has the slightly better total D in both standard down situations (#1 vs #3 for LSU) and in passing down situations (#3 vs #7).

Of course, being a Chicago Bears fan, I can't underestimate the importance of special teams. LSU by any measure is the best in the country, by far, in that phase of the game. Advanced stats show LSU has the most efficient special teams unit in the country (4.779 STE for LSU...#2 is Texas at 3.793!!!). Alabama checks in #46 (STE .680)....If this games turns out to be a lower scoring, defensive game, as most expect, this ST advantage could really work in LSU's favor.

Last week I said that if LSU got 3.5 or more, I'd take LSU with the points....now, I'm leaning Alabama with the home field advantage.

In reality, I probably won't bet this game but will rather sit down and simply enjoy watching the 2 best teams in CFB.

Good stuff (go Bears! )

[Love The Action]

what do you think about the TCU / Wyoming UNDER 57.5? Weather is expected to be bad so this might be a good pick

Lean over, but I need to do more work on this game. GL

[Love The Action]

Two Q's LTA:

1. What are you most "confident" in, your teaser or Kent -1 plus the under in a parlay? I guess the obvious is the teaser since it covers you pretty well, but you're doing it separately, what's your take on parlaying Kent -1 plus the under?

2. If you were to rank your plays (outside of the two you've won) what would it look like?

Great job this week and thanks as always.

PS - just a little background, I usually play Friday games to load up on extra BR for Saturday/Sunday, although if I just don't like something on Friday, I don't play it, but I've been looking at the Kent St. game all week! For example, I'm staying away from the USC game, way too many variables. If it were on a Saturday, I might.

All plays are rated by unit. If they are all 1x plays, then I like them equally. If I rate them higher than 1x, that is how you know I might like one play more than another.

I dont play parlays for real money because parlays are the easiest way to give your money to the books. I would rather grind out profit. With that said, however, correlated parlays are one of the few sharp parlay wagers. Good luck

[Love The Action]

GL to you my main man. You deserve this. I picked a bad time to get sick and not wagering. Just following and learning. Your hard work is paying off.

Hope you are feeling better

[Donnie Brasco]

Good luck donnie...i think there is more to it than that, but not sure if I'm playing this one quite yet...got a little more work to do

Way i see it, i covered the 3&4 in a game i expect to be very close. Not really trying to sway anyone. I wish we could all win. Unfortunately some will and some won't. Im sure im wrong, so fade away. For more fade material i am on vandy +14, washington +16.5, usc -21, 20, kentucky over 44, iowa state under 60.5, Tcu under 57.5, ucla +9, Oregon st +21, Louisiana laff -5.5!Gents