UFC 144: Japan

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I haven't bet either side yet. I like Hioki at current prices, and will like him more at close I'm sure.

Betting aside, do you think he can win any way besides stealing a decision? I don't think he can tap or control a bigger, stronger BJJ black belt.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:50 PM

I think he can win a decision without 'stealing' it. I don't think a finish is likely by either fighter.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 06:52 PM

He has to have seriously improved from his last fight. If the dude who fought (and got his ass kicked by) George Roop shows up, no way he earns a W against Bartholomew W.

**Hannibal** · 02-22-12, 01:39 AM

made a big play on tamura @+240
so much value here. Tamura should be the fav imo. He is a solid wrestler, and as someone mentioned, he avoided being subbed by gustavo who has an excellent guard. Even in his loss to Guy he had some good moments on the feet and was able to get on top. Zhang has nothing here except his guillotine.
I see issei winning anywhere this fight goes. He can out box zhang on the feet and control him on the ground.

tamura definitely has the cardio advantage over zhang. He looked comparatively fresh in the 3rd round against Guy, and was still effective with his wrestling. I thought Guy was the noticeably bigger man too.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-22-12, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Hannibal

made a big play on tamura @+240
so much value here. Tamura should be the fav imo. He is a solid wrestler, and as someone mentioned, he avoided being subbed by gustavo who has an excellent guard. Even in his loss to Guy he had some good moments on the feet and was able to get on top. Zhang has nothing here except his guillotine.
I see issei winning anywhere this fight goes. He can out box zhang on the feet and control him on the ground.

tamura definitely has the cardio advantage over zhang. He looked comparatively fresh in the 3rd round against Guy, and was still effective with his wrestling. I thought Guy was the noticeably bigger man too.

I am a Zhang fader. Made decent with Elkins.

Anyone fading Gomi here?

Gabe where are your picks (seriously asking)

I have 3u Page -240
1.2 Okami -300
1u Shields -280
1u Bart +155

all of my breakdowns are in this thread and Mr Vaughany's.
also messed up on my oscar betting grabbed Clooney after he won an award and now the Silent Movie Frenchie is the fav. I lose 2.5u if Clooney wins.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-22-12, 10:21 AM

Might up my Shields bet. This should be a classic Rinse Repeat of Shields/Hendo

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I am a Zhang fader. Made decent with Elkins.

Anyone fading Gomi here?

Gabe where are your picks (seriously asking)

I have 3u Page -240
1.2 Okami -300
1u Shields -280
1u Bart +155

all of my breakdowns are in this thread and Mr Vaughany's.
also messed up on my oscar betting grabbed Clooney after he won an award and now the Silent Movie Frenchie is the fav. I lose 2.5u if Clooney wins.

I like the Zhang fade as well, got it at +260, thinking about adding more. Tamura's fights are so boring that its hard to cap him seriously.

I'm bet the awards pretty seriously, too. Not sure what you mean by your last statement though? Do you mean you hedged out with Dujardin when you didn't like your Clooney bet anymore? In a perfect world Oldman or Bichir gets it anyway.

Only thing I've got at this point is Hazanvicius at -175.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Might up my Shields bet. This should be a classic Rinse Repeat of Shields/Hendo

Don't you think Aki will have better TDD than Hendo did? Particularly the Hendo that showed up that night?

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 01:47 PM

Didn't exactly know where to put this but wow is Jon Jones full of himself. I hope Rashad humbles him.

**bjpenn85** · 02-22-12, 02:31 PM

Me too. He talks to much nonsense. He is not an inspiration to me at all. Just a political correct MF.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 02:34 PM

He comes across to me as very phony and artificial.

Enough with this cocky nonsense about him being an inspiration, and something to aspire to.

**gabe** · 02-22-12, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Gabe where are your picks (seriously asking) I have 3u Page -240 1.2 Okami -300 1u Shields -280 1u Bart +155 all of my breakdowns are in this thread and Mr Vaughany's.

I decided not to post picks anymore, but I'm on the same plays as you are, except no, I will not be fading Gomi. I expect him to use this opportunity to bounce back.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 02:47 PM

I havent looked into Gomi's opponent, but based on the lines it seems as though the UFC is giving Gomi a "favorable matchup" in order to look good in front of his countrymen.

I think the fans and Gomi deserve a showcase night.

**Hannibal** · 02-22-12, 02:56 PM

Rampage
Pettis
Kongo

I feel all three should win comfortably, with kongo likely to win inside the distance.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 03:06 PM

Replace Rampage with Okami Hannibal

**bjpenn85** · 02-22-12, 03:08 PM

According to wiki Mitsuoka holds wins over Hansen, Damm, Tibau, cobb. He has reasonable takedowns as well. His opponent may be beatable but from what i have seen of Gomi lately im not surprised if he loses a close decision.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 03:08 PM

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 03:08 PM

So much for Gomi being the best LW in the world....

**PunisherIND** · 02-22-12, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I havent looked into Gomi's opponent, but based on the lines it seems as though the UFC is giving Gomi a "favorable matchup" in order to look good in front of his countrymen.

I think the fans and Gomi deserve a showcase night.

id be careful using this type of logic. your opinion that this is a "favorable matchup" is based on the betting line. however, the betting line is very likely influenced by a belief that the ufc is throwing a bone to gomi. its a circular argument. and there arent any facts to support this argument, except that the opponent isnt well known. in my experience, you should be careful making these types of decisions without knowledge of the opponent (i've done it myself in the past).

moreover, you can make the same argument for yamamoto-lee and mizugaki-cariaso. i just dont think its a wise position to take.

**PunisherIND** · 02-22-12, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

According to wiki Mitsuoka holds wins over Hansen, Damm, Tibau, cobb. He has reasonable takedowns as well. His opponent may be beatable but from what i have seen of Gomi lately im not surprised if he loses a close decision.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

id be careful using this type of logic. your opinion that this is a "favorable matchup" is based on the betting line. however, the betting line is very likely influenced by a belief that the ufc is throwing a bone to gomi. its a circular argument. and there arent any facts to support this argument, except that the opponent isnt well known. in my experience, you should be careful making these types of decisions without knowledge of the opponent (i've done it myself in the past).

moreover, you can make the same argument for yamamoto-lee and mizugaki-cariaso. i just dont think its a wise position to take.

I would absolutely not make this type of bet without researching this unknown opponent. I was just making a suggestion that this could be a well deserved showcase fight for Gomi on his hometurf. As for me betting on it, I think I will pass unless I see Gomi has a blatant edge through research.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 03:53 PM

Thought this was pretty interesting also.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 03:59 PM

Not as interesting as you might think.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Not as interesting as you might think.

Alright...

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 04:05 PM

I mean its blank, no video.

**Vaughany** · 02-22-12, 04:07 PM

lol

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:09 PM

Fixed it lol

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:10 PM

Ronda Rousey is hot

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 04:12 PM

Yeah, would pay good money to watch her and Meisha, umm, not fight.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:13 PM

Are you implying that you want to see them aggressively fingerblast each other?

**NunyaBidness** · 02-22-12, 04:15 PM

Well, they can start slow and work up to that.

**Vaughany** · 02-22-12, 04:17 PM

With Carano as guest referee

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:17 PM

No, I want them fingerblasting from the get-go.

**Vitooch** · 02-22-12, 04:19 PM

**omalley21** · 02-22-12, 05:59 PM

Whose that?