UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story
Lots of awesome underdog bets on this card. Spent a fair amount of time writing this up, so hopefully some of you find it useful/interesting.
10.52 units on Cheick Kongo at -165 to win 6.36 units
10.52 units on Cheick Kongo at -175 to win 6.02 units
6 units on Cheick Kongo at -175 to win 3.42 units
2 units on a three-team parlay of Cormier, Bader and Kongo to win 2.86 units
This is easily one of the most generous lines of the year so far, and even at -200, the odds still aren't anywhere near long enough. I guess the line has been tempered by a few things, such as people's inaccurate perception of Kongo as a striker, Kongo's five-year gatekeeper status, and the general love for Pat Barry. All of that is good news for smart bettors, because this is an absolute steal at these odds.
For anyody picking Barry to win tomorrow night, I would advise you to watch Kongo's fight against Paul Buentello. You'll see what happens when Kongo faces a one-dimensional striker. Rather than throwing down and engaging in a stand-up fight, he instead immediately closes the distance and forces Buentello up against the cage. From there, he knees away at his legs before eventually taking him down and beating him up some more. Rinse and repeat for two more rounds until Buentello eventually realises there's nothing he can do about it and taps to thigh strikes. I think we may very well get a similar looking fight tomorrow night, as although Barry is a better striker than Buentello, that's not particularly relevant when you consider the kind of gameplan which Kongo always favours against strikers. Rather, what's relevant is the fact that he's probably equally as deficient in all areas of grappling as Buentello, and that's exactly what Kongo will look to exploit. Blunty put, Barry has given us no reason to think that he could stop Kongo from enforcing his cage-hustle-takedown routine. If Joey Beltran was able to muscle Barry around for periods of their fight, and tag him repeatedly up against the cage, is it even feasible that he can stop Kongo from doing the same - and worse? I don't think it is. Kongo is much bigger than Joey Beltran, much stronger, more powerful, and a better grappler.
It's also worth mentioning that Kongo's top game is underrated, most notably his ground and pound. He linked together a really brutal series of punches and elbows against Mostapha Al-Turk, and the combo was synthesized in such a way that it became practically unblockable. If he can unload the same heavy artillery on Barry once he gets on top, the fight probably isn't going to last long. I probably sound like I'm writing Barry off entirely here, but I genuinely find it difficult to envisage him winning. Of course he's got that puncher's chance, but Barry isn't exactly a one-shot kill artist. Yes, he has capacity to end fights quickly, but it tends to take more than one strike for him to finish someone off. I just can't imagine him getting the opportunity to string together any offense here. Kongo is going to be on him like stink on cheese.
2.5 units on Javier Vazquez at +215 to win 5.38 units
Caught the Sportsbook opener on this one. Vazquez is an super talented featherweight. He's extremely well-rounded: a decent striker with an excellent lead left, a competent offensive and defensive wrestler (though we don't see it too often), and evidently a total stud on the ground. Although Stevenson will be the bigger man, I do consider Vazquez to be the more skilled fighter in most areas. I feel like he might be undervalued here because of his WEC record, but while it stands as 2-3, it actually deserves to be 3-1-1 (he clearly won every single round aginst L.C. Davis, and the final round against Deividas Taurosevicius should have been scored a 10-8). Unfortunately, Vazquez's problem in the past has been his inability to follow a gameplan; as we saw in the Chad Mendes fight, he's far too comfortable fighting off of his back. That may be a problem if Stevenson is able to take him down early on in rounds.
As for Joe Daddy, his back was firmly up against the wall at 155. Just by looking at the guys he beat and lost to, it was clear that he was no longer good enough to get close to another title shot in such a talent-rich division. His chances of being a contender again automatically improve by dropping to 145, but his first fight is against someone who is immensely skilled. Is Stevenson's size advantage really going to stop Vazquez from taking him to task on the feet? Is it going to stop Vazquez from using his underrated wrestling to get takedowns of his own? I don't think so. In addition to that, who knows how Stevenson is going to look after this weight cut. He was very lean at 155, so you've got to believe that he was only cutting muscle to reach 145. Couple that with the wear and tear that goes hand-in-hand with fighting for twelve years, and I think we could potentially see a very physically depreciated Joe Daddy tomorrow night.
0.5 units on Christian Morecraft at +225 to win 1.12 units
1.5 units on Christian Morecraft +250 to win 2.75 units
Another hugely undervalued dog. Although I favour Mitrione in this fight due to the considerable striking advantage (Morecraft tends to wade in with his chin exposed when trying to close the distance), this line should absolutely be closer. Mitrione's defensive wrestling hasn't looked good in any of his fights where it was put to the test: he lost the first round to a nearly dead Marcus Jones because he was taken down multiple times, and also lost the first round to Joey Beltran due to getting out-wrestled. Neither of the aforementioned fighters are particularly good grapplers, and Morecraft's wrestling has seemingly improved leaps and bounds since entering the UFC. As well as that, unlike Beltran and Jones, he's very active on top. He put a beating on Struve and McCorkle from guard and side control, and pulled off a nifty pass to mount against Struve. He's also proven that he's fairly submission-savvy, strangling Diekmann immediately upon taking him down, and - more recently - impressively choking out McCorkle with a standing guillotine choke. I think this is pretty significant as Mitrione's submission defense hasn't properly been tested yet.
Of course, Mitrione is improving rapidly from fight to fight, and training under the tutelage of Tom Erikson is only going to be a good thing for his wrestling. That said, given everything we've seen from both fighters at this point in time, everyone should be all over Morecraft at these odds.
1 unit on Matt Brown at +215 to win 2.15 units
Yet another seriously undervalued dog. John Howard is flat-out overrated due to his UFC record and I'm assuming that's what's contributed to the inaccurate line here. Howard actually deserves to be 1-5 in the UFC: he got the fat end of the stick in decisions against Chris Wilson and Tamdan McCrory, and he would have lost to Dennis Hallman if it wasn't for Josh Rosenthal's absolutely awful stand-up towards the very end of the final round, which led to Hallman getting clobbered. Essentially, his only legitimate win within the UFC is against Daniel Roberts. While I do favour Howard in this fight due to the power advantage - which is really the only outstanding aspect of his game - the line here certainly deserves to be closer.
Matt Brown hasn't had much success in the UFC as of late, but there's no doubt that he's a gamer. While his submission defense has been his achilles heel in recent fights, that's not something he has to be concerned with against Doomsday. I think Brown's best shot at victory here is starting fast; he has a history of absolutely housing his opponents in the first round, and if he comes out with the same aggression that has brought him so much success in the past, I like his chances in this one. As well as that, I think Brown has more offensive grappling skills than advertised. He cruised straight to mount against Brian Foster, gained mount on James Wilks through the use of his guillotine, and was even able to take Dong-Hyun Kim down. Would definitely like to see some of that on display in this fight, especially in light of Howard's dubious grappling ability.
2.2 units on Nate Marquardt at +120 to win 2.64 units
Story is the flavour of the month right now, and that's what I attribute to Marquardt being undervalued here. Although Chael Sonnen provided the blueprint on how to beat Marquardt, I'm not sure if Story is a skilled enough wrestler to be able to follow that blueprint; I think he lacks the technical acuity and explosive first step. As for Marquardt, I feel like he's the bigger, more well-rounded striker who can out-kickbox Story whilst keeping his distance. Also, while his defensive wrestling has got him in trouble in the past, I think the Okami fight showed us that he's taken steps to improve that aspect of his game. I doubt Story is going to able to secure many clean takedowns, and as Marquardt will be the bigger, stronger man, I like his chances of winning the clinch battle up against the cage (which is where Story really shines). Nate The Great at better than even money is an excellent bet in my opinion.
1.4 units on Rich Attonito at -115 to win 1.22 units
Was hoping to see Attonito as the underdog here, but I'll take him at -115. I feel like he's a decent enough wrestler to sprawl and brawl on Roberts, and get a few well-chosen takedowns of his own once Roberts gasses out - incidentally, a very similar strategy to the one he employed against 'Sapo' Natal. Simply put, unless Ninja can get an early submission, I really don't like his chances here. Firstly, Attonito has decent cardio and is a competent boxer. Both of those attributes are going to really pose some problems for Roberts, chiefly because Ninja's striking and gas tank looked woefully deficient against Claude Patrick a little under two months ago. I doubt he's had adequate time to make any significant improvements in either of those areas in such a short period of time. Secondly, although Roberts is the superior submission grappler, Attonito showed in the Branch fight that he can survive on the ground against a legit black belt. Even though Branch is more of a positional grappler, he's also a lot bigger than Daniel Roberts, and a lot of his game plan in that fight revolved around overpowering Attonito up against the fence and dragging him to the mat from there (keep in mind that Attonito formerly fought at 185). Roberts won't enjoy the same size advantage that Branch did, as Attonito will be the slightly bigger man. I think we see him really put it on Roberts if this fight gets out of the first round, possibly leading to a stoppage.
2.2 units on Nik Lentz at +175 to win 3.85 units
I think the most salient point about this fight is that the area in which Lentz excels and thrives is the same area in which Oliveira is totally deficient. It's difficult to assess just how threatening Oliveira is capable of being from guard against a strong top position grappler, but you've got to believe that Lentz has been working on his submission defense all camp long. Oliveira's bottom game is very crafty, so there's certainly a chance that he could catch Lentz with something at some juncture, but at +185, that's a chance I'm more than happy to take. Also, it's worth noting that Lentz doesn't necessarily need to engage Oliveira in a ground fight; he could just as easily force him up against the cage and maintain control there, like he did for prolonged periods against Andre Winner. Obviously it might lead to a separation, but it's the safer route against a submission specialist, so I think it might be something which we see Lentz make use of repeatedly (in his pursuit to legitimise himself as the lightweight equivalent of Jon Fitch).
Lots of awesome underdog bets on this card. Spent a fair amount of time writing this up, so hopefully some of you find it useful/interesting.
10.52 units on Cheick Kongo at -165 to win 6.36 units
10.52 units on Cheick Kongo at -175 to win 6.02 units
6 units on Cheick Kongo at -175 to win 3.42 units
2 units on a three-team parlay of Cormier, Bader and Kongo to win 2.86 units
This is easily one of the most generous lines of the year so far, and even at -200, the odds still aren't anywhere near long enough. I guess the line has been tempered by a few things, such as people's inaccurate perception of Kongo as a striker, Kongo's five-year gatekeeper status, and the general love for Pat Barry. All of that is good news for smart bettors, because this is an absolute steal at these odds.
For anyody picking Barry to win tomorrow night, I would advise you to watch Kongo's fight against Paul Buentello. You'll see what happens when Kongo faces a one-dimensional striker. Rather than throwing down and engaging in a stand-up fight, he instead immediately closes the distance and forces Buentello up against the cage. From there, he knees away at his legs before eventually taking him down and beating him up some more. Rinse and repeat for two more rounds until Buentello eventually realises there's nothing he can do about it and taps to thigh strikes. I think we may very well get a similar looking fight tomorrow night, as although Barry is a better striker than Buentello, that's not particularly relevant when you consider the kind of gameplan which Kongo always favours against strikers. Rather, what's relevant is the fact that he's probably equally as deficient in all areas of grappling as Buentello, and that's exactly what Kongo will look to exploit. Blunty put, Barry has given us no reason to think that he could stop Kongo from enforcing his cage-hustle-takedown routine. If Joey Beltran was able to muscle Barry around for periods of their fight, and tag him repeatedly up against the cage, is it even feasible that he can stop Kongo from doing the same - and worse? I don't think it is. Kongo is much bigger than Joey Beltran, much stronger, more powerful, and a better grappler.
It's also worth mentioning that Kongo's top game is underrated, most notably his ground and pound. He linked together a really brutal series of punches and elbows against Mostapha Al-Turk, and the combo was synthesized in such a way that it became practically unblockable. If he can unload the same heavy artillery on Barry once he gets on top, the fight probably isn't going to last long. I probably sound like I'm writing Barry off entirely here, but I genuinely find it difficult to envisage him winning. Of course he's got that puncher's chance, but Barry isn't exactly a one-shot kill artist. Yes, he has capacity to end fights quickly, but it tends to take more than one strike for him to finish someone off. I just can't imagine him getting the opportunity to string together any offense here. Kongo is going to be on him like stink on cheese.
2.5 units on Javier Vazquez at +215 to win 5.38 units
Caught the Sportsbook opener on this one. Vazquez is an super talented featherweight. He's extremely well-rounded: a decent striker with an excellent lead left, a competent offensive and defensive wrestler (though we don't see it too often), and evidently a total stud on the ground. Although Stevenson will be the bigger man, I do consider Vazquez to be the more skilled fighter in most areas. I feel like he might be undervalued here because of his WEC record, but while it stands as 2-3, it actually deserves to be 3-1-1 (he clearly won every single round aginst L.C. Davis, and the final round against Deividas Taurosevicius should have been scored a 10-8). Unfortunately, Vazquez's problem in the past has been his inability to follow a gameplan; as we saw in the Chad Mendes fight, he's far too comfortable fighting off of his back. That may be a problem if Stevenson is able to take him down early on in rounds.
As for Joe Daddy, his back was firmly up against the wall at 155. Just by looking at the guys he beat and lost to, it was clear that he was no longer good enough to get close to another title shot in such a talent-rich division. His chances of being a contender again automatically improve by dropping to 145, but his first fight is against someone who is immensely skilled. Is Stevenson's size advantage really going to stop Vazquez from taking him to task on the feet? Is it going to stop Vazquez from using his underrated wrestling to get takedowns of his own? I don't think so. In addition to that, who knows how Stevenson is going to look after this weight cut. He was very lean at 155, so you've got to believe that he was only cutting muscle to reach 145. Couple that with the wear and tear that goes hand-in-hand with fighting for twelve years, and I think we could potentially see a very physically depreciated Joe Daddy tomorrow night.
0.5 units on Christian Morecraft at +225 to win 1.12 units
1.5 units on Christian Morecraft +250 to win 2.75 units
Another hugely undervalued dog. Although I favour Mitrione in this fight due to the considerable striking advantage (Morecraft tends to wade in with his chin exposed when trying to close the distance), this line should absolutely be closer. Mitrione's defensive wrestling hasn't looked good in any of his fights where it was put to the test: he lost the first round to a nearly dead Marcus Jones because he was taken down multiple times, and also lost the first round to Joey Beltran due to getting out-wrestled. Neither of the aforementioned fighters are particularly good grapplers, and Morecraft's wrestling has seemingly improved leaps and bounds since entering the UFC. As well as that, unlike Beltran and Jones, he's very active on top. He put a beating on Struve and McCorkle from guard and side control, and pulled off a nifty pass to mount against Struve. He's also proven that he's fairly submission-savvy, strangling Diekmann immediately upon taking him down, and - more recently - impressively choking out McCorkle with a standing guillotine choke. I think this is pretty significant as Mitrione's submission defense hasn't properly been tested yet.
Of course, Mitrione is improving rapidly from fight to fight, and training under the tutelage of Tom Erikson is only going to be a good thing for his wrestling. That said, given everything we've seen from both fighters at this point in time, everyone should be all over Morecraft at these odds.
1 unit on Matt Brown at +215 to win 2.15 units
Yet another seriously undervalued dog. John Howard is flat-out overrated due to his UFC record and I'm assuming that's what's contributed to the inaccurate line here. Howard actually deserves to be 1-5 in the UFC: he got the fat end of the stick in decisions against Chris Wilson and Tamdan McCrory, and he would have lost to Dennis Hallman if it wasn't for Josh Rosenthal's absolutely awful stand-up towards the very end of the final round, which led to Hallman getting clobbered. Essentially, his only legitimate win within the UFC is against Daniel Roberts. While I do favour Howard in this fight due to the power advantage - which is really the only outstanding aspect of his game - the line here certainly deserves to be closer.
Matt Brown hasn't had much success in the UFC as of late, but there's no doubt that he's a gamer. While his submission defense has been his achilles heel in recent fights, that's not something he has to be concerned with against Doomsday. I think Brown's best shot at victory here is starting fast; he has a history of absolutely housing his opponents in the first round, and if he comes out with the same aggression that has brought him so much success in the past, I like his chances in this one. As well as that, I think Brown has more offensive grappling skills than advertised. He cruised straight to mount against Brian Foster, gained mount on James Wilks through the use of his guillotine, and was even able to take Dong-Hyun Kim down. Would definitely like to see some of that on display in this fight, especially in light of Howard's dubious grappling ability.
2.2 units on Nate Marquardt at +120 to win 2.64 units
Story is the flavour of the month right now, and that's what I attribute to Marquardt being undervalued here. Although Chael Sonnen provided the blueprint on how to beat Marquardt, I'm not sure if Story is a skilled enough wrestler to be able to follow that blueprint; I think he lacks the technical acuity and explosive first step. As for Marquardt, I feel like he's the bigger, more well-rounded striker who can out-kickbox Story whilst keeping his distance. Also, while his defensive wrestling has got him in trouble in the past, I think the Okami fight showed us that he's taken steps to improve that aspect of his game. I doubt Story is going to able to secure many clean takedowns, and as Marquardt will be the bigger, stronger man, I like his chances of winning the clinch battle up against the cage (which is where Story really shines). Nate The Great at better than even money is an excellent bet in my opinion.
1.4 units on Rich Attonito at -115 to win 1.22 units
Was hoping to see Attonito as the underdog here, but I'll take him at -115. I feel like he's a decent enough wrestler to sprawl and brawl on Roberts, and get a few well-chosen takedowns of his own once Roberts gasses out - incidentally, a very similar strategy to the one he employed against 'Sapo' Natal. Simply put, unless Ninja can get an early submission, I really don't like his chances here. Firstly, Attonito has decent cardio and is a competent boxer. Both of those attributes are going to really pose some problems for Roberts, chiefly because Ninja's striking and gas tank looked woefully deficient against Claude Patrick a little under two months ago. I doubt he's had adequate time to make any significant improvements in either of those areas in such a short period of time. Secondly, although Roberts is the superior submission grappler, Attonito showed in the Branch fight that he can survive on the ground against a legit black belt. Even though Branch is more of a positional grappler, he's also a lot bigger than Daniel Roberts, and a lot of his game plan in that fight revolved around overpowering Attonito up against the fence and dragging him to the mat from there (keep in mind that Attonito formerly fought at 185). Roberts won't enjoy the same size advantage that Branch did, as Attonito will be the slightly bigger man. I think we see him really put it on Roberts if this fight gets out of the first round, possibly leading to a stoppage.
2.2 units on Nik Lentz at +175 to win 3.85 units
I think the most salient point about this fight is that the area in which Lentz excels and thrives is the same area in which Oliveira is totally deficient. It's difficult to assess just how threatening Oliveira is capable of being from guard against a strong top position grappler, but you've got to believe that Lentz has been working on his submission defense all camp long. Oliveira's bottom game is very crafty, so there's certainly a chance that he could catch Lentz with something at some juncture, but at +185, that's a chance I'm more than happy to take. Also, it's worth noting that Lentz doesn't necessarily need to engage Oliveira in a ground fight; he could just as easily force him up against the cage and maintain control there, like he did for prolonged periods against Andre Winner. Obviously it might lead to a separation, but it's the safer route against a submission specialist, so I think it might be something which we see Lentz make use of repeatedly (in his pursuit to legitimise himself as the lightweight equivalent of Jon Fitch).
Wish I would have tailed!
I guess cause it wasn't in with the rest of your plays. I didn't want to try Brenneman at 320, but I would have at 710. Nice picks last night.
Nice job man. Kongo's beard saved my bacon too! I thought it was over.