Ladle's MMA Betting

**Educ8d Degener8** · 04-30-11, 05:58 PM

What f*cking book is offering that line on MacDonald by decision? Holy sh*t, I'd a hammered that... it's +190 at 5dimes...

Nice catching that Ladle.

**Vaughany** · 04-30-11, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

What f*cking book is offering that line on MacDonald by decision? Holy sh*t, I'd a hammered that... it's +190 at 5dimes...

Nice catching that Ladle.

Unfortunately can't hammer these lines due to bet limits otherwise I'm sure we'd of both put a lot more on it!

**Vaughany** · 04-30-11, 06:41 PM

Ninja is gassed out...Patrick lookin gooood

**Ladle** · 04-30-11, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

What f*cking book is offering that line on MacDonald by decision? Holy sh*t, I'd a hammered that... it's +190 at 5dimes...

Nice catching that Ladle.

Unfortunately can't hammer these lines due to bet limits otherwise I'm sure we'd of both put a lot more on it!

Yeah, ridiculous line! Would have indeed gone to town on it if Paddy had let me.

Ninja is gassed out...Patrick lookin gooood

Good luck! I like your picks! Ive got ellengrrber rory bocek straight up too

Cheers man! Ellenberger got it done without much trouble!

**Ladle** · 04-30-11, 09:00 PM

Vladdy clobbers Brilz - disaster! Looks like this will be my first losing night. Matyushenko has really refined his stand-up.

**Ladle** · 05-01-11, 07:12 PM

UFC 129 Plays

Amount staked: 84.28

Amount Returned: 82.59

Profit: -1.69 units

Everything was going great until a single play ruined everything: The Janitor cleaned up Jason Brilz in 20 seconds, costing me over 14 units, and resulting in a really disappointing near-break even night.

Matyushenko's stand-up has improved leaps and bounds, but I definitely shouldn't have risked such a large amount of money on that particular fight. Hedges can be absolutely awesome, but only for specific fights (such a Machida/Couture, or Russow/Madsen, where one of the fighters only has a single feasible way of winning). I got far too cocky with the hedges last night, and cost myself a decent profit in the process.

Going forward, I need to keep in mind just how random this sport can be at times. It's definitely been a valuable learning experience, and I feel confident that I can rebound strongly in the next event.

10 units on Lyoto Machida by TKO or decision at -140 to win 7.14 units

Hedged with...

1.93 units on Randy Couture by decision at +518 to win 10 units

In conjunction with...

0.5 units on Lyoto Machida wins SUB of the Night at +1450 to win 7.3 units

1

10 units on Jason Brilz at +110 to win 11 units

Hedged with...

4.8 units on Vladimir Matyushenko by decision at +208 to win 10 units

0.05 units on Jason Brilz wins SUB of the Night +3800 to win 1.9 units

10 units on Nate Diaz at +108 to win 10.8 units

Hedged with...

1.82 units on Rory MacDonald by decision at +550 to win 10 units

2 units on Claude Patrick at -160 to win 1.26 units

3 units on Claude Patrick at -140 2.14 units

2 units on Jake Ellenberger at -165 to win 1.22 units

20 units on Bocek/Henderson goes the distance at +110 to win 22 units

18.2 units on Bocek/Henderson doesn't go the distance at +110 to win 20 units

Progress so far...

UFC Fight Night: Seattle: +40.00 units (11/14 successful bets)
Bellator 38: +1.9 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley: +5.47 units (2/5 successful bets)
Bellator 40: +1.7 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Bellator 41: +3.15 units (1/1 succesful bets)
UFC 129: -1.69 units (5/7 successful bets)

Progress since March 26, 2011: +50.53 units

**cheeese** · 05-02-11, 03:08 AM

Should we start the, "When will Ladle finish a hedge watch?" Nah just kidding around. Good luck to you in the future.

**Ladle** · 05-02-11, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by cheeese

Should we start the, "When will Ladle finish a hedge watch?" Nah just kidding around. Good luck to you in the future.

Thanks. Hedges have always been my most profitable bets, but I got too sporadic with my use of them on this event. Won't happen again!

**bjpenn85** · 05-02-11, 12:39 PM

Feel you broh. Losing sucks. Its so easy to make mistakes. I was quite confident in both brilz and bocek. Ive learned that i should at least see a couple of rounds on a fighters weak area pluss stay away from the closest fights. The closest fight almost always goes to decision, and therefor pro bets should be used a lot more on these fights.

**Ladle** · 05-02-11, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Feel you broh. Losing sucks. Its so easy to make mistakes. I was quite confident in both brilz and bocek. Ive learned that i should at least see a couple of rounds on a fighters weak area pluss stay away from the closest fights. The closest fight almost always goes to decision, and therefor pro bets should be used a lot more on these fights.

My real problem was the amount of money I had at stake on a single fight; I would have still come out well ahead if I'd just played a couple of units on Brilz. The hedge really didn't warrant 14.5 units, and I paid the price.

Anyway, I'll only be playing hedges which I consider to be rock solid from now on (a la the Madsen/Russow one from two months ago).

**bjpenn85** · 05-02-11, 01:21 PM

yeah. i have done that mistake several times in the past. I feel like since autumn 2009, i have come a long way when it comes to minimize these types of error. Betting is as much about reducing fuckups as gaining shit. against bocek, i saved my ass with henderson decision. I almost always arb bets, something i didnt do in the past before joining this forum. The upset ko from matyshenko is the type of things you just gotta suck up. There will always be ko upsets.

**Ladle** · 05-02-11, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

yeah. i have done that mistake several times in the past. I feel like since autumn 2009, i have come a long way when it comes to minimize these types of error. Betting is as much about reducing fuckups as gaining shit. against bocek, i saved my ass with henderson decision. I almost always arb bets, something i didnt do in the past before joining this forum. The upset ko from matyshenko is the type of things you just gotta suck up. There will always be ko upsets.

Yes, there certainly will always be unusual outcomes. The key with hedging successfully is being able to identify those fights where the chance of an unusual outcome is very, very remote. In hindsight, the Brilz/Matyushenko fight didn't fall into that category, and so wasn't an appropriate candidate for a 14 unit hedge. It was a frustrating result, but it's going to help me make shrewder hedges in the future.

**The HOFF** · 05-04-11, 01:48 AM

Brilz burned me too. I had a bad night but we both have to look at overall for the year and not our bad single events.

**MMAdisciple** · 05-05-11, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

Vlad isn't a particularly powerful puncher and his ground and pound isn't anything to write home about unless you're Alexandre Ferreira.

Or Jason Brilz

**Ladle** · 05-05-11, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

Or Jason Brilz

I don't know how to interpret this. Either you're trying to be a funny man, or you're an aching douchebag who's attempting to make me look bad by cherry-picking an inaccurate sentence of analysis. Whatever the case, you're failing to amuse me. Maybe next time you can discredit my thoughts before the fight actually takes place. Then again, that didn't end well for you the last time you tried. You just ended up looking like an ill-informed pleb.

**MMAdisciple** · 05-05-11, 03:03 PM

And you look like you have too much time on your hands. Shut up, and learn how to wager. Write-ups don't win fights, idiot.

**MMAdisciple** · 05-05-11, 03:04 PM

And it's about time you change that Maury pic, you're annoying the whole board.

**Ladle** · 05-05-11, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

And you look like you have too much time on your hands. Shut up, and learn how to wager. Write-ups don't win fights, idiot.

You're not a remotely credible poster and everybody on this board knows it. This is evidenced by the fact that I've easily destroyed you in three debates already in my short time here. If any of you would like to see proof of this, look at the second page of my betting thread when MMAdisciple tries to argue that Miranda's best chance of beating Simpson is by TKO. If you'd like further proof, look at the recent thread about Story being able to stuff Alves' takedowns when MMAdisciple tries to claim that Story's "wrestling and effective aggression" will keep the fight close. If you'd like further proof, follow this link: http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...orward-p2.html, where MMAdisciple gets destroyed yet again in a debate over whether or not Brilz won the first round of the Rogerio fight.

I've been given props by pretty much all of the intelligent members on this board over the last month. What good things have they had to say about you? Nothing, because you're a moronic, ill-educated "fan" - who can't debate for sh*t - who'd be better suited to posting on Sherdog with other morons.

And you look like you have too much time on your hands. Shut up, and learn how to wager. Write-ups don't win fights, idiot.

Your ignorance is absolutely astounding. When did I say that write-ups win fights? I just enjoy breaking down fights, it generally helps me make better informed bets, and others have been appreciative of my analysis. Also, I'm absolutely positive I've turned a better profit over the last two months than you have. Where's your betting thread, you flesh-waste? Somebody as stupid as you would probably struggle to turn a profit on one event per year.

And it's about time you change that Maury pic, you're annoying the whole board.

Bukowski is here to stay. You should probably leave though, because from now on, I'm going to expose you as a complete moron at every single opportunity I get. I was actually being kind to you on all the other occasions.

In summary, I genuinely find it hilarious that you come on here and discredit my opinion after a fight has happened because you're butt-hurt that I made you look stupid in three separate debates. You're truly a low-life, as well as an ignorant POS.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

And you look like you have too much time on your hands. Shut up, and learn how to wager. Write-ups don't win fights, idiot.

Firstly, we didn't see Ladle laying in to you after Aaron Simpson dominated Miranda for 3 rounds, when you argued that Simpson would gas out and that he gets tagged too much and that Miranda would TKO/KO him.

Secondly, write-ups dont win fights - what does that even mean!? What write-ups do is show reasoning and the thought-process behind picks which is going to help make Ladle a lot more money in the long-term, especially in comparison to somebody that takes the piss out of a play after the outcome and without offering any of their own insight in to the fight. It's all the more ironic that you had picked Brilz in the contest that Hoff created!!!

**Chairib** · 05-05-11, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Firstly, we didn't see Ladle laying in to you after Aaron Simpson dominated Miranda for 3 rounds, when you argued that Simpson would gas out and that he gets tagged too much and that Miranda would TKO/KO him.

Secondly, write-ups dont win fights - what does that even mean!? What write-ups do is show reasoning and the thought-process behind picks which is going to help make Ladle a lot more money in the long-term, especially in comparison to somebody that takes the piss out of a play after the outcome and without offering any of their own insight in to the fight. It's all the more ironic that you had picked Brilz in the contest that Hoff created!!!

write ups r 4 homoz

**Vaughany** · 05-05-11, 04:23 PM

As we're on the subject of hedges! What you think about the Hamill/Rampage fight? I can only envisage the fight going the distance or Rampage TKO/KO'ing Hamill. We all know Rampage has a solid chin, I guess there is a chance that Hamill gets Rampage down and GnP's him but it's very unlikely. With this in mind, makes sense to play fight going distance at -120 hedged with Rampage by TKO/KO at +250 or other way round of course. Other option is to go with Rampage KO of the Night hedged with distance but then there is a chance ther could be a couple KO's on this card with the Struve/Browne fight, Stann could KO Santiago, Nelson KO Mir, Thiago Alves with a flying knee a la Hughes fight could always happen as well, maybe even Maynard God Forbid finishing Edgar this time!

Also, could definitely see one of the prelim guys gettin Submission of the Night...Barao, Macdonald, Grove and Palaszewski all have a strong chance...don't see many potential sub wins on main card.

**Vaughany** · 05-05-11, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

write ups r 4 homoz

ha yeah, bet he loved your GSP/Shields breakdown, u even had photos tho which is the gayest of all!

**Ladle** · 05-05-11, 04:52 PM

It's all the more ironic that you had picked Brilz in the contest that Hoff created!!!

write ups r 4 homoz

Anyway guys, back to betting talk. What's the over/under on MMAdisciple returning to this thread to respond? Here's my write-up on the situation:

MMAdisciple is a pussy and is currently cowering beneath his keyboard. He will run away from this thread just like he ran away from every other argument he was blatantly losing.

I'm also considering a play on "MMAdisciple never posts on this board again after getting so thoroughly embarrassed".

As we're on the subject of hedges! What you think about the Hamill/Rampage fight? I can only envisage the fight going the distance or Rampage TKO/KO'ing Hamill. We all know Rampage has a solid chin, I guess there is a chance that Hamill gets Rampage down and GnP's him but it's very unlikely. With this in mind, makes sense to play fight going distance at -120 hedged with Rampage by TKO/KO at +250 or other way round of course. Other option is to go with Rampage KO of the Night hedged with distance but then there is a chance ther could be a couple KO's on this card with the Struve/Browne fight, Stann could KO Santiago, Nelson KO Mir, Thiago Alves with a flying knee a la Hughes fight could always happen as well, maybe even Maynard God Forbid finishing Edgar this time!

I like Rampage by TKO/KO hedged with the fight to go the distance, as I can't see how Hamill finishes Rampage. Sure, he knocked Munoz out cold, but Munoz was dropped by Okami and Grove, and staggered by Catone. My only concern with the Rampage wins KO of the night play is that - in spite of Rampage's power - Hamill is fairly durable and it could take a flurry of shots to put him away; I think there's potential for a more clear-cut knockout in some of the other fights. As you alluded to, Browne could one-shot Struve a la Roy Nelson/JDS, Stann can definitely short-circuit Santiago's flimsy chin and Nelson can probably put Mir away with one of those overhand rights.

Also, could definitely see one of the prelim guys gettin Submission of the Night...Barao, Macdonald, Grove and Palaszewski all have a strong chance...don't see many potential sub wins on main card.

Largely agreed, though I definitely think Santiago can submit Stann in light of what Soszynski was able to do to Stann. Might be worth making a play on a couple of the undercard guys you mentioned if the odds are right.

**Kaladarus** · 05-05-11, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by chairib

write ups r 4 mma handicapping forums

fyp

**Dalek Jast** · 05-05-11, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by chairib

write ups r 4 homoz

This post promotes an inaccurate and highly prejudiced view of mma fans as a race of crazed homophobic tyrants! Do not read this thread any further or you will be exterminated! Obey! Obey!

Also, this thread is the gayest thing Dalek Jast has ever seen. So gay! So gay!

**corcoran65** · 05-05-11, 09:00 PM

I am going to place a bet on this fight going the distance hedged with rampage by TKO. only was i see thiis fight ending besides by dec is rampage by ko. Rampage has to good of a chin and neither is too much off a ground threat

**Camdemonium** · 05-06-11, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

And you look like you have too much time on your hands. Shut up, and learn how to wager. Write-ups don't win fights, idiot.

Where are your picks or do you just troll?

**The HOFF** · 05-23-11, 12:39 AM

Not much going on the last month and your thread has drifted to page 2. I'll bump this to the main page so I can find it!

Ladle anything locked in for 130 yet?

**Ladle** · 05-23-11, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Not much going on the last month and your thread has drifted to page 2. I'll bump this to the main page so I can find it!

Ladle anything locked in for 130 yet?

Yeah man, I've placed a few bets. Alves at -185, Browne at -105, Santiago at +121 (which I'll be hedging with Stann wins KO of the night), Nelson at +121 and a flier on Nelson by decision at +450. Thinking of hedging Rampage/Hamill goes the distance with Rampage by KO, but I need to check the odds. Will probably crank out some analysis over the next week.

**Vaughany** · 05-23-11, 07:32 AM

Not sure if u've seen it yet but Paddy have released props for Browne/Struve...rather generous fight not going distance prop!

**Ladle** · 05-23-11, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Not sure if u've seen it yet but Paddy have released props for Browne/Struve...rather generous fight not going distance prop!

Cheers for the heads up. I just checked and it's currently at -200. Pretty good value.

**Vaughany** · 05-23-11, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by Ladle

Cheers for the heads up. I just checked and it's currently at -200. Pretty good value.

Oh I maxed out on it at -162.5 so probably contributed to the line movement. -200 still good compared to -400 on 5dimes!

**Ladle** · 05-23-11, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Oh I maxed out on it at -162.5 so probably contributed to the line movement. -200 still good compared to -400 on 5dimes!

How much did they let you put on it?

**Vaughany** · 05-23-11, 10:58 AM

£67 or something like tht, at work so just quickly clicked max bet and placed it then logged off!

**Ladle** · 05-23-11, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

£67 or something like tht, at work so just quickly clicked max bet and placed it then logged off!

Very sly.

For 131, I have money on Mr. dos Santos. Do you think I should hedge with Carwin by KO at +220 on Paddy now, or wait for the KO of the night prop? I'm also wondering if the 5dimes opener will be better.