Lasker's MMA Picks

ddream1 · 08-27-10, 05:03 PM

gl sir

KCJMAC · 08-27-10, 08:07 PM

Good luck, Lasker, and happy birthday!

I think you've nailed those picks. Only one I'd disagree on is Edgar because I think Penn is preparing to dominate, but that's a minor difference. If Edgar wins I definitely agree it will be by decision, and you have a solid price.

JuicedUp · 08-28-10, 11:43 PM

Congrats guy. Edgar by DEC. lasker is sharp boys.

ddream1 · 08-28-10, 11:53 PM

wow florian really rained on your b-day. what the hell was florian doing tonight. some really nice calls tonight sir your a good capper keep up the great work.

lasker · 08-29-10, 06:25 PM

Ugh. Yeah, Florian rained on my birthday. I had more parlays than I listed here, and most of them busted because of him. He just didn't look quite like himself. He was very tentative, more so than we're used to seeing. In the final 20 seconds or so he knew he was about to lose a decision, was on his feet, and didn't even throw a single punch or kick. But I definitely underestimated the effectiveness of Maynard's wrestling, and should have at least hedged with a small Maynard by decision bet. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Wish Davis would have lasted another minute, but the Diaz/Davis goes to decision pick also missed. Sorry guys, yet another losing night.

Happy about the Edgar by decision and Couture by submission picks, but not pleased overall. Bad streak continues... I'll get em next time

Shagdogy · 08-29-10, 08:15 PM

Florian messed me up as well. Just didn't look good at all. Gonna have to remember that about him in big fights. 0-2 with poor performances. Had Diaz in a parlay that won, just wish I had him straight up as well.

Playmaker · 09-03-10, 11:30 PM

I was curious if you had a lean in the Maynard Edgar Rematch lasker? I see Bodog has Maynard the favorite at -140 and sportsbook.com has it 135 for Maynard...Im leaning towards Maynard because hes the better wrestler and the man has great strength plus the 2nd fight might go the same way as the first with Maynard getting Takedowns and controlling the fight for another Decision..Maynard has an impressive chin as well..

lasker · 09-04-10, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by Playmaker

I was curious if you had a lean in the Maynard Edgar Rematch lasker? I see Bodog has Maynard the favorite at -140 and sportsbook.com has it 135 for Maynard...Im leaning towards Maynard because hes the better wrestler and the man has great strength plus the 2nd fight might go the same way as the first with Maynard getting Takedowns and controlling the fight for another Decision..Maynard has an impressive chin as well..

I agree with you, though it's difficult to bet against Edgar after his last two performances. But yes, I do think Maynard is the rightful favorite because of his wrestling and sheer size advantage. On the feet Edgar can outpoint him all day, but Maynard does have the kind of power that makes it dangerous if Edgar gets clipped just once. This fight really comes down to wrestling, as the first fight did. Edgar's wrestling pedigree is no joke, and you'd have to expect he's going to be preparing his movement and takedown defense non-stop, but will it be enough to negate the size and strength and wrestling skill of Maynard? Maybe for a while, but in a five round fight you'd have to expect Maynard will get the better of it eventually.

Edgar will have the standup advantage and possibly a cardio advantage and the experience advantage of having fought victoriously in five-round fights (vs Penn, no less) twice already. I just don't think it's enough.

Edgar knew that Penn was going to try to shoot on him; he called it in the pre-fight interviews. Yet Penn was able to take Edgar down in the championship rounds, when he was tired. While Penn can be a good offensive wrestler when he tries (which is rare these days), he's just not the same caliber as Maynard when it comes to scoring takedowns. I'm rooting for Edgar and I think he's one of those guys, like Matt Hughes, who just wins. He's smart, he's a very hard worker, and he just finds a way to get the job done. So I hate going against him. But in this fight I think his stylistic disadvantages will be too much to overcome. I like Maynard up to around -180. Edgar can't knock him out, almost certainly can't submit him from the bottom, and will have to be able to take him down or avoid getting taken down for at least three rounds to have a realistic chance of winning a decision.

Vaughany · 09-04-10, 09:46 AM

Im jus hoping Edgar/Maynard to decision is -150 or better, at least 75% chance that it goes to decision IMO. I cant bet against Franky but I do think if anybody can beat him at light-weight its surely Maynard.

Shane · 09-04-10, 01:44 PM

I'd be shocked to see a decision any lower than -150. A decision seems like the only plausible way for this fight to end, unless they clash heads and one of them cuts real bad.

Vaughany · 09-04-10, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Shane

I'd be shocked to see a decision any lower than -150. A decision seems like the only plausible way for this fight to end, unless they clash heads and one of them cuts real bad.

As its five rounds I'm hoping tht will push a better line.

GoldenYAK · 09-06-10, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Ugh. Yeah, Florian rained on my birthday. I had more parlays than I listed here, and most of them busted because of him. He just didn't look quite like himself. He was very tentative, more so than we're used to seeing. In the final 20 seconds or so he knew he was about to lose a decision, was on his feet, and didn't even throw a single punch or kick. But I definitely underestimated the effectiveness of Maynard's wrestling, and should have at least hedged with a small Maynard by decision bet. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Wish Davis would have lasted another minute, but the Diaz/Davis goes to decision pick also missed. Sorry guys, yet another losing night.

Happy about the Edgar by decision and Couture by submission picks, but not pleased overall. Bad streak continues... I'll get em next time

Never bet against the undefeated all american wrestler.

Jordan23 · 09-07-10, 01:51 AM

You know what's really funny? This may have been mentioned before but I'm going to say it anyways. I really see Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard like I see Cain Velasquez vs. Brock Lesnar.. A smaller wrestler with better skills vs. a bigger wrestler with a size and power advantage.

lasker · 09-10-10, 02:07 AM

never thought of it that way, but interesting comparison. Since I now despise Gray Maynard for ruining my potential profits, I have no problem thinking of him as the lightweight Brock Lesnar

lasker · 09-10-10, 08:00 PM

Ok, this is getting ridiculous. Tonight will be a winning night.

David Heath -215 (Bookmaker). Hutcherson will have nothing for Heath, who should be better in all areas. If he gets into trouble on the feet, I don't think he'll have much trouble getting the fight to the ground and controlling or finishing the fight from there. 5u to win 2.33u

Luciano Azevedo +350: Most people seem to assume Azevedo will just get taken down and controlled en route to an umpteenth McKee decision victory. Perhaps. But at these odds I have to take a chance. McKee is 40, bored with fighting (by his own admission), already thinking and talking about retirement, and very arrogant. He is facing the only man to beat Jose Aldo -- granted, in 2005, but Aldo was 7-0 and just running through everyone in the first round, even back then. He also beat Din Thomas just before Thomas beat Clementi, Guida, and Stephens in succession. He's a tough, tough guy, and unlike his opponent he sounds very motivated for this fight. Unlikely to hit, but I think there's value here at +350. 2u to win 7u

Jesse Taylor -290: I see some people here are on the other side here, but I just don't think Taylor loses this. He's an easy guy to dislike, and normally I'd root against him along with everyone else, but I need him to make me money here. I think Taylor will struggle against people with very good jiu-jitsu, but Watson is not one of those. I don't care if he's been talking about wanting to stand and bang -- if he does, he'll take things down the moment he realizes he's not getting the better of it (unless he's too badly rocked or knocked out by that point). His wrestling is on another level, and I expect him to grind out a decision win fairly easily here. 4u to win 1.38u

I have a lean on Nickels, too, but I'll just leave it at that without betting this one. Have to go. GL all

lasker · 09-11-10, 12:42 PM

+1.71u Heath and Taylor won, Azevedo lost.

lasker · 09-11-10, 06:50 PM

Brock Larson -190: 4u to win 2.1u

Danillo Villefort +285 2u to win 5.7u

lasker · 09-12-10, 12:34 AM

Larson loses, but Villefort comes through with the upset. +1.7u

A huge night of upsets, wow.... Favorites Jardine, Larson, Villasenor, Sokoudjou, Darabedyan, and Spratt all lost. A $1 parlay of their opponents would have paid thousands

. Jardine has now lost five fights in a row. I wonder if he's done. He was never a world-beater, but I didn't think he'd end up in this situation.

And Sokoudjou... that guy just sucks. I hope nobody layed -380 on a fighter as unreliable as he is, even if his opponent was Houston Alexander. He had all the talent and potential in the world, but they say he lacks the work ethic.

lasker · 09-15-10, 12:04 AM

Marquardt points handicap -3½ (+130): 2.5u to win 3.25u

Stylistically, I feel this is a bad matchup for Palhares. Marquardt should prove to be the bigger, more durable and superior athlete. He'll be able to keep it standing -- at least for most of the fight -- and there's no doubt that he's the more diverse and dangerous striker. Palhares has good takedowns, but if he does manage one I think Marquardt will be able to stand right back up or survive long enough on the ground. Palhares took Hendo down just once in their fight, and I actually think Marquardt's wrestling is better suited to MMA than Hendo's. Sonnen took him down but he is one of the very best wrestlers in all of MMA. Marquardt's takedown defense should be the key here, but if it hits the ground he won't be a fish out of water.

A KO/TKO is a real possibility, but I'm expecting Nate to win by decision. Palhares seems to have a great chin. I think Marquardt might be a bit cautious since he's coming off of a humiliating loss and wants to work his way back into title contention (not to mention the fact that one really needs to strike cautiously against a guy like Palhares, for fear of getting taken down. So I think Marquardt by decision is likely, but I see more value in this bet. For anyone not familiar with points handicaps, this bet means that I need Marquardt to win by stoppage or a decision where he wins by a margin of 4 points or more after tallying all the judges scorecards.

I'll add more tomorrow.

lasker · 09-15-10, 12:24 AM

Also, Palhares wins by TKO/KO at +2075 seems to be a good value bet. Very unlikely to hit, but these odds represent a less than 5% chance, which I think is too low. I'm generally not one for straddles, but this seems too good to pass up. Might just include it in a couple "get rich quick" parlays. Palhares does not have crisp striking but he packs a lot of power in his wild punches. Also, he could get mount and rain down punches from there en route to a TKO victory.

lasker · 09-15-10, 09:45 AM

Rafael Natal -185: 3u to win 1.62u

Natal has to have sick jiu-jitsu to be a 4th degree blackbelt under Vinicius Magalhães. I saw his fight over an out-of-shape Travis Lutter (surprise surprise), and even though anyone can look like Anderson Silva when striking against Lutter, he still impressed me with his standup. Most fights hit the ground at some point, and if this fight ever does it's going to be bad news for Attonito. I think Natal will just be too much for him.

Fresh off of his brilliant victory at the U.S. Open, I think Rafa will follow up on his success with a submission victory in the 2nd round.

lasker · 09-15-10, 01:07 PM

Miller wins by three round decision: +175 2u to win 3.5u

I expect Tibau to fade in the second and especially third round. Miller is the kind of opponent who will make him work hard for every takedown, and who can fight a very physical, gritty and exhausting type of fight. Tibau's conditioning will be a question here. Seems unlikely that Miller finishes him, though it is certainly possible and I think it's more likely than Tibau finishing the fight. I'm going to bet Miller wins in round 3 +1300 in some get-rich-quick parlays, but those are just for a buck or two each.

lasker · 09-15-10, 01:09 PM

Oliveira/Escudero FOTN award winner: +400: 1u to win 4u

These lightweights are full of energy, have highly contrasting styles and I would be shocked if this isn't an exciting fight. Escudero should get the better of the standup, Oliveira will be very active on the ground but Escudero has good submission defense... should be a scrappy fight, and I'm liking this bet.

Shagdogy · 09-15-10, 05:04 PM

hm... like that prop bet for FOTN. Might tail you there. Also keeping my eye on Miller by decision. Think it's a good possibility. Nice write-ups.

Playmaker · 09-15-10, 07:39 PM

GL Lasker...I think Nate the Great finds a way to win as well

lasker · 09-15-10, 08:01 PM

Thanks guys. Miller came through with the decision win. I was worried the judges would rob him, as it was fairly close, but Miller was the deserving winner. Now just need Marquardt to win (and wouldn't mind Oliveira either, as I included him in some parlays). Unfortunately Natal lost.

lasker · 09-16-10, 12:31 AM

+2.75u for the night on this thread, third straight event with modest winnings, but a great night for me personally because of a parlay that hit at greater than 200-to-1 odds:

Marquardt wins in round 1: +425 / Oliveira wins in round 3: +1300 / Miller wins by 3 round decision: +175

I had 15 such parlays (each for $1), all variations on wins for the three fighters above, and luckily one of them hit

Attached Files

lasker · 09-16-10, 11:20 AM

No plays for tonight's Bellator card. Grove looked a lot more impressive than Oleinik in their respective Bellator debuts, but Oleinik could easily catch him in a sub if it hits the ground. Oleinik's ground game is on another level. Normally I would bet Oleinik as the dog here, but he was so unimpressive in his debut against Hayes that I can't bring myself to do it.

As for the other fights, Konrad should beat Grabowski but I don't want to lay -470 on such a green fighter facing an undefeated opponent. And I don't know the other fighters well enough to make a play.

lasker · 09-16-10, 12:34 PM

UFC 119: Jeremy Stephens wins inside distance +244: 2u to win 4.88u

In no way do I believe Stephens should be the underdog to Guillard. Stephens by submission in the second round.

Vaughany · 09-16-10, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by lasker

UFC 119: Jeremy Stephens +140

In no way do I believe Stephens should be the underdog to Guillard. Stephens by submission in the second round.

I agree, I like Stephens in this one. He's at +110 on Paddypower and +125 on bet365 currently so im holding off at the moment as he's at +145 on most U.S books. May straddle it with Guillard by decision tho, and Im not sure Stephens will submit him...are you thinking a guillotine?

lasker · 09-16-10, 12:53 PM

Maybe, or otherwise a rear-naked choke. I guess I'd have to agree that a submission is the least likely method of victory, but if a prop bet comes out for Stephens by submission I think I'll be all over if the odds are long enough. Stephens has been working with Dean Lister and has a number of other high level jiu-jitsu practitioners in his camp, and he made it clear after his win over Stout that it's an area of his game that he's focusing on right now. Guillard never had good submission defense, and probably never will. For some reason I envision Stephens rocking him in the midst of a wild flurry and then finishing with a submission. But of course a decision win or TKO are probably more likely. I wouldn't be surprised if Stephens mixes things up with some takedown attempts, and I hope he does since it will probably give him better chances in the standup as well. Guillard has a tendency to fade after the first round. All told, I just can't see why Guillard is favored here.

Vaughany · 09-16-10, 01:09 PM

Yeah that could happen for sure if he catches Guillard and follows up and as you say might be some value in the prop as will probly be +700 range. Have you seen his video blogs on youtube, seems like he has great focus and is a cool dude. Also utilising Martin Rooney's conditioning methods which can only help his cardio.

snake11eyes · 09-16-10, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by lasker

All told, I just can't see why Guillard is favored here.

My guess is Stephens prides himself on his standup and likes to keep fights standing. Probably a bad idea against Guillard in my opinion. Guillard is faster, stronger, more explosive, basically just a better athlete. If the fight stays on the feet Guillard has the advantage. Not saying the odds are correct, but I can see why books have him as the favorite.

Educ8d Degener8 · 09-16-10, 01:19 PM

Guillard has looked much improved and focused lately. Heading out for vaca, so not sure i'll be able to study properly for this one, but that match is one on the card that sparked my interest...

GL

lasker · 09-16-10, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah that could happen for sure if he catches Guillard and follows up and as you say might be some value in the prop as will probly be +700 range. Have you seen his video blogs on youtube, seems like he has great focus and is a cool dude. Also utilising Martin Rooney's conditioning methods which can only help his cardio.

Haven't seen them, but I'll take a look. Yep, cardio is another important reason that i think he should be favored here. I'm going to put a couple units on Stephens to win straight up as well (right now I just picked him inside the distance), since the fight may well go to decision with Stephens winning the second and third rounds.