Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

UFC 125 play:

1.5 units on Stann by decision at +400 to win 6 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

More UFC 125 plays:

1 unit on Roberts at Evens to win 1 unit (plus stake);

1 unit on Volkmann at +195 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);

4.5 units on Guida at -150 to win 3 units (plus stake) .....this cancels out my 3 units on Gomi at +150!

Hopefully will have expanded my empire of betting accounts by tomorrow and have a Sportbet account set up so will be adding Guida by decision at +200 or better and hedging that with Gomi by TKO/KO at +400 on paddypower! Also will be looking to take Stungun by decision (at +145 on Sportbet hopefully); and Vera by decision at +300 to +350 range which is good value I think. Will most likely cancel out my 7 units on Maynard at -125 as well with 7 units on Edgar at +125 on Pinnacle...don't think I can bring myself to bet against my favourite fighter in Frankie!

[Vaughany]

Just when I thought Paddypower were tightening up on their lines they go and give me these Christmas gifts!:

Sengoku Soul of Fight Play:

3.95 units on Chonan at +162.5 to win 6.419 units (plus stake);

DREAM Dynamite Play:

3.44 units on Zaromskis at +187.5 to win 6.45 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

Just when I thought Paddypower were tightening up on their lines they go and give me these Christmas gifts!: Sengoku Soul of Fight Play: 3.95 units on Chonan at +162.5 to win 6.419 units (plus stake); DREAM Dynamite Play: 3.44 units on Zaromskis at +187.5 to win 6.45 units (plus stake).

How do these guys stay in business?

[Vaughany]

How do these guys stay in business?

ha God knows! Unfortunately they put really low max bets on Sengoku and Dream so not as great as I hoped when I first noticed them. But still, Im confident at least one of those two will win, there is a chance Sakuraba subs Zaromskis tho. Think I'll leave it be and resist arbing out on the two plays. Hopefully Chonan's opponent isnt in great condition as he is late replacement for Hornbuckle and came in 2lbs overweight.

[Vaughany]

Arbing out of my 7 units on Maynard at -125 by taking Edgar at +135 - an Edgar win will give 0.56 units profit (on top of overall stake of 12.6 units) and a Maynard win will give overall stake back...

5.6 units on Edgar at +135 to win 7.56 units (plus stake).

[lasker]

Arbing out of my 7 units on Maynard at -125 by taking Edgar at +135 - an Edgar win will give 0.56 units profit (on top of overall stake of 12.6 units) and a Maynard win will give overall stake back... 5.6 units on Edgar at +135 to win 7.56 units (plus stake).

Well done. A lot of people (including myself just a few months ago) seem convinced that Maynard simply has Edgar's number, but I'm really torn on this matchup and I think arbing out for guaranteed profit is the way to go.

[Vaughany]

Well done. A lot of people (including myself just a few months ago) seem convinced that Maynard simply has Edgar's number, but I'm really torn on this matchup and I think arbing out for guaranteed profit is the way to go.

Yeah, I still think Maynard will probably take the decision but I can't bet against the Tom's River grit! Plus I don't wanna be sitting there for 25 minutes hoping that Edgar loses, I'd rather sit back and enjoy it! Might add a small play on Edgar gettin Submission of the Night as I imagine it will be +1400 or better and worth a pop. Judging from interviews with him, Dante Rivera and Almeida it seems they've been workin hard on guillotines and are relying on his BJJ and scrambles in this fight. Although obviously unlikely, I wouldn't rule out Franky latching on a guillotine in the 4th or 5th round if Maynard gets sloppy with a takedown. He did get Sherk in a tight guillotine in their fight in the 3rd round but I believe he was saved by the bell so you never know!

[urge2kill]

Wow, sick lines on Chonan and Zaromskis.

[Mr.Kitty]

Would you recommend Paddypower? looking to add a sportsbook that offer more props and other events then UFC, like Strikeforce, Dream and K1. Can I change from fractional odds to decimal?

[Vaughany]

Chonan lost by early KO so gonna slightly hedge my Zaromskis play with:

1.146 units on Sakuraba at +187.5 to win 2.149 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Would you recommend Paddypower? looking to add a sportsbook that offer more props and other events then UFC, like Strikeforce, Dream and K1. Can I change from fractional odds to decimal?

Yes Sir! They had both Dream and Sengoku available and as you'll see above I got Zaromskis and Chonan as underdogs...although Chonan has gone and lost! I find paddy to be the easiest site to use as well and never had any problems. The props are good as well but they seem to be tightening up on the odds recently, but then I did get Stann by decision at +400 which I havnt seen any better anywhere else. But yeah I'd say its the best European booky for MMA

[Mr.Kitty]

Yes Sir! They had both Dream and Sengoku available and as you'll see above I got Zaromskis and Chonan as underdogs...although Chonan has gone and lost! I find paddy to be the easiest site to use as well and never had any problems. The props are good as well but they seem to be tightening up on the odds recently, but then I did get Stann by decision at +400 which I havnt seen any better anywhere else. But yeah I'd say its the best European booky for MMA

Ok thanks! do they have any friend referral program? if so I can sign up through that and you get some cash/bonus/free play for helping me. I will probably decide tonight which sportsbook I sign up too, because I want to bet on Dream/Dynamite event.

[Vaughany]

Ok thanks! do they have any friend referral program? if so I can sign up through that and you get some cash/bonus/free play for helping me. I will probably decide tonight which sportsbook I sign up too, because I want to bet on Dream/Dynamite event.

Nah unfortunetly they dont do a referral program! Be good to have somebody else on here who uses Paddy as well tho! At the moment they're the only site in UK I know of that is offering full Dream line-up.

[Poppa Catfish]

Chonan lost by early KO so gonna slightly hedge my Zaromskis play with:

1.146 units on Sakuraba at +187.5 to win 2.149 units (plus stake).

Good hedge. I know Sakuraba is hanging on by a thread, but Zaro has huge gaping holes in his game. I don't know if I'm betting with my heart again, but I am starting to lean towards Sak at +190.

[Vaughany]

Good hedge. I know Sakuraba is hanging on by a thread, but Zaro has huge gaping holes in his game. I don't know if I'm betting with my heart again, but I am starting to lean towards Sak at +190.

Yeah if he's smart he will dive in straight away or clinch with Zaro and look for a sub. And even if he doesnt sub Zaro and it goes to decision he'll get the nod for sure. So Zaro will have to TKO/KO Sak within 10mins which isnt that easy.

[Poppa Catfish]

A great opportunity to do that is when Zaro throws that lazy jumping mess of a knee of his. It is so predictable and sloppy. If he can pick his spots and circle away from the high kick he should be ok. Still hard to put money on a man who is a shell of his former self.

Also Zaro is pretty reckless, I'm not ruling out him diving in on Sak.

[Vaughany]

Can I change from fractional odds to decimal?

Forgot to say yes you can change to decimal (towards bottom of left-hand side of page)!

[Mr.Kitty]

Forgot to say yes you can change to decimal (towards bottom of left-hand side of page)!

Ah, I found it, thanks for the help! and good luck with your picks

[ufcmma36]

zaromskis seems too fight pretty awesome in japan. He should get the head kick K.O.!

[Vaughany]

zaromskis seems too fight pretty awesome in japan. He should get the head kick K.O.!

Yee 4 and 0 record I believe...hopefully he does, really dont wanna be goin in to UFC125 with losses!

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 125 plays:

3 units on Stungun by decision at +155 to win 4.724 units (plus stake);

1.3 units on Vera by decision at +424 to win 5.5 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.325 units on Tavares, Grispi, Vera, & Edgar/Maynard Over 4.5 Rounds to win 1.684 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.648 units on Gomi/Guida Starts Round 3, Diaz/Kim goes distance, & Edgar/Maynard goes distance to win 1.455 units (plus stake);

0.065 units on Edgar to win in Round 5 at +4000 to win 2.6 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Just when I thought Paddypower were tightening up on their lines they go and give me these Christmas gifts!:

Sengoku Soul of Fight Play:

3.95 units on Chonan at +162.5 to win 6.419 units (plus stake);

DREAM Dynamite Play:

3.44 units on Zaromskis at +187.5 to win 6.45 units (plus stake);

1.146 units on Sakuraba at +187.5 to win 2.149 units (plus stake).

Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite Results:

Total stake: 8.536 units

Total return: 9.89 units

Profit: +1.354 units

Always good to go in to a big event with a bit of profit in the bag!

[rocky mattioli]

zaromskis +187.5?....what ass-backwards book put that line up?....how are they still in business?....

i wouldn`t even bother wagering on the fights....just wait for these hedges (they seem to put out consistently lousy lines) and laugh all the way to the bank....

good job...you have a really great thing going there....makes one consider relocating to the u.k...

[Vaughany]

zaromskis +187.5?....what ass-backwards book put that line up?....how are they still in business?....

i wouldn`t even bother wagering on the fights....just wait for these hedges (they seem to put out consistently lousy lines) and laugh all the way to the bank....

good job...you have a really great thing going there....makes one consider relocating to the u.k...

ha yeah but after every time I think that surely they aren't going to make the same mistake again or at least it wont be for a while until they do make a mistake or just get it wrong! Even if they did do it every month I'd still do normal bets just because Im a degenerate! Plus the books in Europe put low maximum bets on except sometimes with the big UFC events so dont make as much guranteed profit as you'd think through these miracle bets!

[rocky mattioli]

ha yeah but after every time I think that surely they aren't going to make the same mistake again or at least it wont be for a while until they do make a mistake or just get it wrong! Even if they did do it every month I'd still do normal bets just because Im a degenerate! Plus the books in Europe put low maximum bets on except sometimes with the big UFC events so dont make as much guranteed profit as you'd think through these miracle bets!

it pays you to be very sharp watching those openers...that can be work....

well done(as usual)..

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 125 Plays:

7 units on Maynard at -125 to win 5.6 units (plus stake);

5.6 units on Edgar at +135 to win 7.56 units (plus stake);

3 units on Stungun by decision at +155 to win 4.724 units (plus stake);

1.3 units on Vera by decision at +424 to win 5.5 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Stann by decision at +400 to win 6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stann at +160 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

4.5 units on Guida at -150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

3 units on Gomi at +150 to win 4.5 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 1.92 units on Diaz/Kim goes distance & Guida by decision to win 6.22 units (plus stake);

0.64 units on Davis/Stephens Over 2.5 rounds at +160 to win 1.025 units (plus stake);

0.64 units on Baroni/Tavares Over 2.5 rounds at +170 to win 1.09 units (plus stake);

0.128 units on Thiago Silva quickest TKO/KO at +1100 to win 1.409 units (plus stake);

0.128 units on Diaz to win in Rnd 3 at +1270 to win 1.627 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.325 units on Tavares, Grispi, Vera, & Edgar/Maynard Over 4.5 Rounds to win 1.684 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.648 units on Gomi/Guida Starts Round 3, Diaz/Kim goes distance, & Edgar/Maynard goes distance to win 1.455 units (plus stake);

0.065 units on Edgar to win in Round 5 at +4000 to win 2.6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Roberts at Evens to win 1 unit (plus stake);

1 unit on Soto at +113 to win 1.13 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Volkmann at +195 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis at +252 to win 1.26 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Diaz KO of the Night at +2500 to win 1.25 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Grispi Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 2.4 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Guida Submission of the Night at +800 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Leben KO of the Night at +650 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Vera KO of the Night at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake).

Too hungover from last night's shenanigans to really give any sort of extensive reasoning behind my plays! Davis reaching +252 has enticed me in to a small play. Yes he got tooled by Diaz but not many people mention that he actually rocked Diaz and floored him early in the first round but Diaz survived because of his great chin. Many are saying that Davis' weight cut will of killed him but he was walking around at 170 weeks ago and he weighed in comfortably. Only concern is that although he will now have a size advantage, will he actually utilise it by pressuring Stephens in the clinch or by executing takedowns? Highly unlikely of course seeing as he likes to stand and bang, but at least he wont be at as much of a reach disadvantage as he was at welterweight. This being said, I'd of taken Stephens up to -175 probably.

Good luck all!

[phillybadboy]

good luck lookin forward to maynard edgar

[Poppa Catfish]

Stann by decision. I can feel it


Followed you on this one

[Poppa Catfish]

What an absolute beating!

Ok I know Randy is Captain America, but I think its more fitting for Stann. Even is lingo is from the 1940's. "Golly Gee Willikers that Leben sure is a toughy, I'll tell you what." Like he has been frozen in ice for several decades

[Vaughany]

What an absolute beating!

Ok I know Randy is Captain America, but I think its more fitting for Stann. Even is lingo is from the 1940's. "Golly Gee Willikers that Leben sure is a toughy, I'll tell you what." Like he has been frozen in ice for several decades

haha yeah he is Steve Rogers in disguise! Pretty disgusted with myself for not goin bigger on a single play on him to win wen he was +160
Should of put more units on that and less on Stann by decision in hindsight...stupid error!

[Vaughany]

UFC 125 Review:

Summary of UFC 125 Plays:

7 units on Maynard at -125 to win 5.6 units (plus stake);

5.6 units on Edgar at +135 to win 7.56 units (plus stake);

3 units on Stungun by decision at +155 to win 4.724 units (plus stake);

1.3 units on Vera by decision at +424 to win 5.5 units (plus stake);

1.5 units on Stann by decision at +400 to win 6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Stann at +160 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

4.5 units on Guida at -150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

3 units on Gomi at +150 to win 4.5 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 1.92 units on Diaz/Kim goes distance & Guida by decision to win 6.22 units (plus stake);

0.64 units on Davis/Stephens Over 2.5 rounds at +160 to win 1.025 units (plus stake);

0.64 units on Baroni/Tavares Over 2.5 rounds at +170 to win 1.09 units (plus stake);

0.128 units on Thiago Silva quickest TKO/KO at +1100 to win 1.409 units (plus stake);

0.128 units on Diaz to win in Rnd 3 at +1270 to win 1.627 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.325 units on Tavares, Grispi, Vera, & Edgar/Maynard Over 4.5 Rounds to win 1.684 units (plus stake);

Parlay: 0.648 units on Gomi/Guida Starts Round 3, Diaz/Kim goes distance, & Edgar/Maynard goes distance to win 1.455 units (plus stake);

0.065 units on Edgar to win in Round 5 at +4000 to win 2.6 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Roberts at Evens to win 1 unit (plus stake);

1 unit on Soto at +113 to win 1.13 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Volkmann at +195 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Davis at +252 to win 1.26 units (plus stake);

0.05 units on Diaz KO of the Night at +2500 to win 1.25 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Grispi Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 2.4 units (plus stake);

0.2 units on Guida Submission of the Night at +800 to win 1.6 units (plus stake);

0.3 units on Leben KO of the Night at +650 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Vera KO of the Night at +1200 to win 1.2 units (plus stake).

Total stake: 35.744 units

Total return: 38.839 units

Profit: 3.095 units

[ddream1]

no surprise sir, well done, seriously u r very talented, along with Ecc, lask, ill and others. u guys are doing solid solid work

[Vaughany]

no surprise sir, well done, seriously u r very talented, along with Ecc, lask, ill and others. u guys are doing solid solid work

Cheer bro, could of been so much better tho! This was supposed to be my trump card and was expecting make at least 6 units profit...made a big school boy error in not putting more on Stann straight up so always another lesson to be learnt! Not gonna make the same mistake with Hominick on the next card, planning to go reasonably big on him at reasonable odds... -200 hopefully.

[lasker]

UFC 125 Review:



Total stake: 35.744 units

Total return: 38.839 units

Profit: 3.095 units

You never have a losing night, do ya? Good work Vaugh, especially on leading the Stann brigade. Excellent call.