Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

UFC 125 Resolution Play:

2 units on Maynard at -125 to win 1.6 units (plus stake).

Will probably put more on this tomorrow as long as the line stays at -125 on skybet. Will then arb out of the play with a bet on Edgar as well at anything better than +130. I think there is a chance that Edgar may reach +140 to +150 range by fight time.

[stefan084]

wow 122 was great for you--i thought you had hughes last night though--no?

[lasker]

Congrats vaughany, doing great

[Vaughany]

wow 122 was great for you--i thought you had hughes last night though--no?

No, I was originally going to go with HUghes by decision but after seeing BJ Penn's condition and listening to him in interviews I thought better of it! Just had the fight to go to decision.

[Chairib]

Cheers for that man, I thought Sot by decision was the best bet as well and dont regret doing it, could never of known that Lauzon would gas like that as he hasnt had issues with his cardio before (as far as I'm aware). I think George took more risks than he has in previous fights, I believe there were two times were he tried to latch on to an armbar but Lauzon got out and ended up on top. U wer right tho about Joe coming out strong in the first and the fight favouring GSot the longer it went on, shame it just didnt go on for longer and go to decision, I really though Lauzon would be tough and scrappy enough to hold out but I guess I bought in the post-Ruediger hype! Ken Flo managed to finish him so its not really surprising in hindsight that GSot submitted him! Would be awesome if u could do a breakdown of Bocek and Hazelett at some point as well, that's an intriguing fight and Im wanting to go big on Bocek after that performance against Jim Miller. Judging from other forums and online prediction sites such as "Tapology.com" people the slight majority seem to be going with Hazelett, but I guess less hardcore fans know who Bocek is whilst the casual fan knows Hazelett because of his unusual style and crazy submission highlight-reel as well as the fights against Daley (which was co-main event) and Kosheck. Really hoping this helps keep Boceks line down to between -110 and -130.

Good observation, that really wasn't what I've come to expect from George. He was being very aggressive with the subs, kind of think that's why he missed the armbar in the first round because he was rushing a little bit. Just my opinion but this was a statement fight for him. I think he was hoping for a shot at title at the next UFC in Australia.

I thought Creepy Joe would come out strong and try to take the first round and then start to fade. He kind of did the same thing in his fight against Kenflo, but I wasn't expecting that much of a drop off after one round.

Yeah let me watch some more tape on Bocek and Hazelett and I'll get back to you.

[Vaughany]

Good observation, that really wasn't what I've come to expect from George. He was being very aggressive with the subs, kind of think that's why he missed the armbar in the first round because he was rushing a little bit. Just my opinion but this was a statement fight for him. I think he was hoping for a shot at title at the next UFC in Australia.

I thought Creepy Joe would come out strong and try to take the first round and then start to fade. He kind of did the same thing in his fight against Kenflo, but I wasn't expecting that much of a drop off after one round.

Yeah let me watch some more tape on Bocek and Hazelett and I'll get back to you.

Yee I agree, defo a statement fight so that he can put on a great performance for the home crowd and probly get submission of the night! Nice one, look forward to reading it.

BTW, I was on twitter yesterday and was gonna ask Joey Odessa about the Penn/Fitch expected odds and funnily enough came across a tweet he did to @chairib were it seems u already had asked the same question! So im now following u!

[Vaughany]

TUF 12 FINALE PLAY:

1 unit on Bonnar/Pokrajac to decision at +125 to win 1.25 units (plus stake);


UFC 124 Play:

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Additional TUF 12 FINALE Plays:

1 unit on Maia by decision at +150 to win 1.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Hendricks/Story to decision at -120 to win 0.833 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

TUF 12 FINALE Play:

1 unit on Branch at -161 to win 0.621 units (plus stake).

[Shagdogy]

You like Maia by decision better than by sub? Grove seems to make a habit of getting himself into some sticky sub attempts early in his fights before he guts out of them. Problem here is that I can't see him gutting out of a Maia sub. If he gets careless, I think Maia will force the tap or put him to sleep. But... you are the king of "to decision" bets.

[Vaughany]

You like Maia by decision better than by sub? Grove seems to make a habit of getting himself into some sticky sub attempts early in his fights before he guts out of them. Problem here is that I can't see him gutting out of a Maia sub. If he gets careless, I think Maia will force the tap or put him to sleep. But... you are the king of "to decision" bets.

Yeah, I think there's about a 50/50 chance of Maia winning by sub or decision, the Maia by decision play is going to be a hedge with Maia 'Submission of the Night' but those bets havn't been released yet on skybet or paddy!

[Vaughany]

Additional TUF 12 FINALE Plays:

3.4 units on Brookins at -137.5 to win 2.473 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Watson at -150 to win 0.667 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Paixao at -175 to win 0.571 units (plus stake).

[kiefynugs]

Damn. Bookmaker has had maynard at -150 for a while and I thought that was great value. -125 is theft!

[RaiderNation MMA]

cant see kos knocking out gsp anytime soon, but i guess its great value

i dont like branch, but i do like maia and hendricks for sure

gl

[Vaughany]

cant see kos knocking out gsp anytime soon, but i guess its great value

i dont like branch, but i do like maia and hendricks for sure

gl

Neither can I, but it's the only way that Kos could possibly win so I'm now covered if I want to put GSP in multiple parlays such as in with Thiago Alves and Joe Daddy to help boost their odds.

[Vaughany]

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 1.2 units on Wilkinson, Stevenson, Thiago Alves, & GSP to win 2.439 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Another TUF 12 Finale Play:

2.5 units on Brookins/Johnson to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake).


Will be looking to add Brookins Sub of the Night and Maia Sub of the Night (confident it will be one of those two), and maybe Johnson KO of the Night just to reinforce the Brookins to win and Brookins/MJ to decision straddle even more! Also, Garcia by decision depending on the odds and if props for that fight are made available.

[rocky mattioli]

was impressed to find out that brrokins lasted into the 3rd with aldo...

[Vaughany]

was impressed to find out that brrokins lasted into the 3rd with aldo...

He's also the only guy who's actually managed to tag Aldo with a punch I think! Aldo came out in the second round with a knot above his eye. Also only person to get a takedown (reversed) and have top-position!

[rocky mattioli]

Another TUF 12 Finale Play:

2.5 units on Brookins/Johnson to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake).


Will be looking to add Brookins Sub of the Night and Maia Sub of the Night (confident it will be one of those two), and maybe Johnson KO of the Night just to reinforce the Brookins to win and Brookins/MJ to decision straddle even more! Also, Garcia by decision depending on the odds and if props for that fight are made available.

v.....question....the 8 submission wins on brookins` resume...coupled with all 4 of johnson`s losses being via sub...isn`t worrisome for you?....

wouldn`t have bothered asking,but,2.5 units is fairly substantial for you....

thanks....

[Vaughany]

v.....question....the 8 submission wins on brookins` resume...coupled with all 4 of johnson`s losses being via sub...isn`t worrisome for you?....

wouldn`t have bothered asking,but,2.5 units is fairly substantial for you....

thanks....

Yep very true Rocky! But I have got 3.4 units on Brookins to win at -137.5 as well which I think I put further up the page. The fight to go to decision bet is a hedge in case MJ takes a decision. That way if Brookins wins and wins by decision I'll be making big profit margin but will still be gettin a lot of my stake back from the single play on Brookins if Johnson does take the decision. I also intended to add Brookins 'Submission of the Night' as well but doesnt look like any of my books are going to be offering those types of props which is a bit annoying as I think Maia or Brookins would be gettin sub of the night for sure.

[rocky mattioli]

Yep very true Rocky! But I have got 3.4 units on Brookins to win at -137.5 as well which I think I put further up the page. The fight to go to decision bet is a hedge in case MJ takes a decision. That way if Brookins wins and wins by decision I'll be making big profit margin but will still be gettin a lot of my stake back from the single play on Brookins if Johnson does take the decision. I also intended to add Brookins 'Submission of the Night' as well but doesnt look like any of my books are going to be offering those types of props which is a bit annoying as I think Maia or Brookins would be gettin sub of the night for sure.

you`re a cagey,devil........glad i asked.....


keep up the good work,sir.....

[snake11eyes]

Where the heck did you get Brookins at -137.

[Vaughany]

Looks like I'm not gonna be able to grab Brookins 'Sub of the Night' or Maia 'Sub of the Night' as I'd hope which could end up messing up two of my big straddles. I've also bought back on Chivitchian against Watson as I think Watson might struggle to get this to the ground. Could really do with Brookins getting a decision win! BOL to everybody!

Summary of TUF 12 Finale Plays:

3.4 units on Brookins at -137.5 to win 2.473 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Brookins/Johnson to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Bonnar/Pokrajac to decision at +125 to win 1.25 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Maia by decision at +150 to win 1.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Hendricks/Story to decision at -120 to win 0.833 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Branch at -161 to win 0.621 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Garcia/Nam Phan Over 2.5 Rounds at -114 to win 0.877 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Paixao at -175 to win 0.571 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Watson at -150 to win 0.667 units (plus stake);

0.665 units on Chivitchian at +151 to win 1.004 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Campuzano & Hendricks by decision to win 1.659 units (plus stake);


TUF 12 Finale & UFC 104 Parlay:

Parlay (Trebles from 4 folds): 1.2 units on Wilkinson, Stevenson, Thiago Alves, & GSP to win 2.439 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Where the heck did you get Brookins at -137.

Skybet my friend...they released all the lines even before bookmaker or 5dimes etc...! And they had it at -120 initially but I was to slow to pounce on that before it changed! They've now got it at -200. They also had McKenzie as underdog at +120 so was hoping to get both him and Wilkinson both at plus odds but unfortunately by the time Pinnacle, bet365 and paddypower had released their lines McKenzie had gone down to -110 or something. Really need to sign up to bookmaker or 5dimes soon so that I can take full advantage of the opening lines and grab more 'miracle' bets!

[snake11eyes]

I wish I could sign up for skybet, pinnacle, and paddy so I could take advantage of some miracle bets. We have a lot of the same plays so I hope we do well. The only difference between us is I think Johnson (probably the only one) is going to sneak away with a decision. Good luck tonight buddy.

[Vaughany]

I wish I could sign up for skybet, pinnacle, and paddy so I could take advantage of some miracle bets. We have a lot of the same plays so I hope we do well. The only difference between us is I think Johnson (probably the only one) is going to sneak away with a decision. Good luck tonight buddy.

ha gd to hear, tho I've got Brookins/MJ to go to decision so wont be a total disaster if he does sneak a points win!

[Vaughany]

Looks like I'm not gonna be able to grab Brookins 'Sub of the Night' or Maia 'Sub of the Night' as I'd hope which could end up messing up two of my big straddles. I've also bought back on Chivitchian against Watson as I think Watson might struggle to get this to the ground. Could really do with Brookins getting a decision win! BOL to everybody!

Summary of TUF 12 Finale Plays:

3.4 units on Brookins at -137.5 to win 2.473 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Brookins/Johnson to decision at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Bonnar/Pokrajac to decision at +125 to win 1.25 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Maia by decision at +150 to win 1.5 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Hendricks/Story to decision at -120 to win 0.833 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Branch at -161 to win 0.621 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Garcia/Nam Phan Over 2.5 Rounds at -114 to win 0.877 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Paixao at -175 to win 0.571 units (plus stake);

1 unit on Watson at -150 to win 0.667 units (plus stake);

0.665 units on Chivitchian at +151 to win 1.004 units (plus stake);

0.5 units on Campuzano & Hendricks by decision to win 1.659 units (plus stake);

Total stake for TUF 12 Finale: 13.065 units

Total return: 22.621 units

Profit: +9.556 units

Total Profit since August 26th: +63.03 units

[kiefynugs]

Damn you killed it. I wish I'd had more courage on Brookins, it was a small play for me and I ended up down a couple units just from paixao.

[Vaughany]

Damn you killed it. I wish I'd had more courage on Brookins, it was a small play for me and I ended up down a couple units just from paixao.

Cheers bro! Unlucky man, I'm sure if I had Bookmaker as one of my accounts I'd of put at least 2.5 units on Paixao at -130 when the line was first released so was actually fortunate that I could only get him at -175 as I didn't think that that was great value so only put a unit on him.

[Eccocide]

Nice night man. Lets keep er going next weekend!

[phillybadboy]

good luck this weekend dude, i got st pierre last leg in parlay, st piere 1x, amir khan 1x , kahn vs maidana over 9.5 rounds -110 1x

[Chairib]

You seen any odds on the Bocek/McLovin fight yet?

[Vaughany]

You seen any odds on the Bocek/McLovin fight yet?

Nope not yet, should think they may come out on bookmaker or 5dimes in a few hours tho, usually Tuesday evening (UK time) that they come out.

[Vaughany]

UFC 124 plays so far:

2.5 units on Miller/Oliveira to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);

2.5 units on Bocek at Evens to win 2.5 units (plus stake);

2 units on GSP by decision at +150 to win 3 units (plus stake);

0.166 units on Koscheck by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.494 units (plus stake);

0.563 units on Alves/Howard 'Fight of the Night' at +750 to win 4.223 units (plus stake).