GL tonight man. I'm also on McDonald, Vasquez and I have Faber in a parlay.
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I think I'm going to try your straddle. Mendes by decision -110, Vazquez by sub is only 20 more +500 so I'll just take Vazquez inside for +480. Another interesting line is Vazquez by ko/tko +1800. Not likely to hit, but I love putting something like that in a parlay the payoff is crazy if you can cash the parlay.Comment -
Ok I got the straddle. What do you think of this parlay.
risk $10 to win $2134.75 5 Team Parlay 64424166-1 11/11/10 5:49pm
Pending 11/13/10 11:00am UFC Fighting 2002 Kris McCray -105* vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Pending 11/20/10 10:45pm UFC Fighting 1202 Matt Hughes +135* vs B.J. Penn
Pending 11/11/10 10:00pm WEC Fighting 2229 J.Vasquez wins by TKO/KO +1800* vs Any other result
Pending 11/11/10 9:00pm WEC Fighting 2402 Joseph Benavidez -210* vs Wagnney Fabiano
Pending 11/11/10 7:00pm WEC Fighting 2608 Michael McDonald -150* vs Clint GodfreyComment -
congrats on the Mayday pick, I added him to a parlay
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nice work,v.......go rattle some pots and pans...i am...
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Yeah, what a great night
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WEC 52 Results:Summary of WEC 52 Plays:
1 unit on McDonald at -121 to win 0.826 units (plus stake);
1 unit on Vazquez at +252 to win 2.52 units (plus stake);
Parlay (3 from 4 folds): 0.6 units on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin, & Sotiropolous(UFC 123) to win 1.912 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on Faber by decision at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake).
BOL all!
Stake: 3.1 units (including pending parlay)
Overall return: 1.826 units (excluding pending parlay)
- 1.274 units
Faber, Mendes and Jabouin all won so my 3 out of 4 folds parlay is looking good and if Sotiripolous wins at 123 I'll have an overall return of 4.338 units resulting in a profit of 1.238 units.
Comment -
Additional UFC 122 Play:
1 unit on McCray at -106 to win 0.943 units (plus stake).
My reasoning behind this play is simply because all of Rocha's wins which look impressive on paper (8 finishes with 7 subs and 1 TKO) have all been against absolute cans! Nearly all the fighters he has faced have 50/50 records with an equal amount of wins and losses. One dude even has a record of 0 and 4. Moreover, Yasin Mengulloglu who Rocha submitted in the second round was even submitted in the first round by a Welsh fighter named Paul Jenkins who has a record of 41 wins and 46 losses...a true 'pub' fighter as we say over here in England! Of course, it's not necessarily Rocha's fault that his opponents are below average as he is based in Germany and thus doesnt necessarily mean that he cant compete at a much higher level. Furthermore, McCray's opponents that he fought before entering TUF arent exactly an impressive list either but at least he showed on TUF some decent BJJ defence against Noke who is a good grappler. I'm expecting a McCray decision win here.Comment -
This can theory has promise, will be tracking it. Another angle that I like in this fight is that they hardly ever throw TUF champions or runner ups to the wolves. They usually give them a couple of gimme fights, so they can milk a few events out of the name recognition that they built on TUF.
Of course I'm not counting TUF champions such as Roy Nelson and Matt Serra, who already were well established pros before TUF.Comment -
Yee this is true to a certain extent, I guess you could argue Bader's first fight against Marrero was set-up for him to get a comfortable win, maybe Andre Winner getting Roly Delgado as well, and perhaps more recently with Schaub, Mitrione and Madsen but I think in their case it's more to do with the heavyweight division not being as stacked as the smaller divisions. But on the whole I think the rest havnt been given gimme fights but obviously not top guys either...Escudero got Cole Miller in his first fight after beating Nover, Pearson got a solid veteran in Riley, Sadollah got Hendricks, Danzig got Bocek, Wilks got Matt Brown, and even Jensen was actually a tough fight for McGhee.
McCray does look pretty ripped at 170, he was carrying a bit of excess fat in TUF and he should be much more beastly at this weight. Although nothing significant, McCray was born and grew up in Germany so might have an extra buzz about him with the nostalgia of being back 'home'!Comment -
I was way off on saying gimme fights, although the early TUFrs were given Sam Hoger and Elvis Sinosic to cut their teeth on. Fairer to say decent match ups to test them.
Cole Miller and Matt Brown are pretty brutal tests though. Must have pissed off management badly by beating Nover, they wanted him to take off in the worst way.Comment -
Ha yeah, Dana particularly liked Nover! And I think it was pretty clear that the load of middleweights in the Hendo vs Bisping season were very average so UFC knew that Wilks was never gonna set the place on fire, be an exciting fighter and/or be a serious potential contender unlike Bader, Pearson, Winner, etc... whom each covered one of those aspects. And yes the earlier finalists such as Bisping did have easier fights when they entered UFC after TUF but again I think that was mostly due to the fact that there just wasnt as much talent or well-rounded fighters 3 to 5 years ago unlike today.Comment -
UFC 122 Plays Overview:
3 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 4.875 units (plus stake); and 3 units on Kimmons at +185 to win 5.55 units (plus stake);
21.7 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 35.262 units (plus stake); and 21.7 units on Kimmons at +200 to win 43.4 units (plus stake);
2.5 units on Marquardt/Okami to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);
1.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic to decision at -120 to win 1 unit (plus stake);
1 unit on Soszynski at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);
1 unit on McCray at -106 to win 0.943 units (plus stake);
1.3 units on Sadollah by decision at +150 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);
0.25 units on Sadollah Submission of the Night to win 1.75 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on Matyushenko by decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on 'Any under-card fighter getting Submission of the Night' at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake);
0.125 units on Alexandre Ferreira to win by Submission to win 0.5 units (plus stake);
0.825 units on Siver/Winner to go to decision to win 0.55 units (plus stake);
0.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic being 'Fight of the Night' at +500 to win 1 unit (plus stake);
0.5 units on Sakara/Rivera being 'Fight of the Night' at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake);
0.1 units on Rivera KO of the Night at +700 to win 0.7 units (plus stake).
Overall stake for UFC 122: 59.4 units
Guaranteed Return of at least (due to Noke/Kimmons 'Miracle bet'): 64.837 units (if Noke wins) or 73.65 units (if Kimmons wins).Comment -
I'm actually really large on Rocha. I know the record isn't that impressive when you see the other fighters records, but I did see a small clip of him fighting. Rocha appeared to have good takedowns. And the submission skills were slick. I think TUF 11 was one of the worst shows talent wise in the history of the show. I didn't think McCray was impressive at all during the show. The fight with McGee was not very good. It appeared that McGee had not improved very much in his fight with Jensen. I'm thinking that McCray will be in the same boat and not show vast improvement in the time since the show.
Good luck with the other plays.Comment -
What is the explanation for the Noke/Kimmons miracle bet? Aren't you half expecting a notification that the line was a mistake and that the play is invalid? How'd you get both at plus like that?Comment -
Paddypower released their lines and had Noke at 13/8 and Kimmons at 4/9. So I jumped on it, put a max bet that pinnacle would allow at the time of 21.7 units on Kimmons at +200 then put same amount on Noke at 13/8. Planned to put a lot more on but soon as I added another 3 units (as that's all I had left in my paddy account) they changed the line to 4/9 Noke and 13/8 Kimmons! I'm sure they'd of voided it already if they were going to, plus I think they can only void a bet if they've got both lines wrong. Moreover, Paddy have messed up before and I've taken advantage and the bet has always gone through.Comment -
pacquiao fight this wekendComment -
I agree Hoff, tht season was the weakest group of fighters yet with guys like Uscola who had a 15-14 record going in! But McCray did have like 4 fights in a very short period so he was bound to be tired, in pain and not in peak condition in some of those fights. And yes it does appear that Rocha has good takedowns, however these takedowns wer on guys like Mengulluoglu, Kadlubek and David Golberg who have mediocre takedown defence and are predominantly kickboxers, I'd like to think that McCrays wrestling ability, although not at a NCAA level or anything will be enough to prevent any takedowns and also get a few takedowns that steal rounds....as long as he doesn't gas.Comment -
So, where's the firepower on Sotiropolous?Comment -
UFC 122 Plays Overview:
3 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 4.875 units (plus stake); and 3 units on Kimmons at +185 to win 5.55 units (plus stake);
21.7 units on Noke at +162.5 to win 35.262 units (plus stake); and 21.7 units on Kimmons at +200 to win 43.4 units (plus stake);
2.5 units on Marquardt/Okami to decision at -137.5 to win 1.818 units (plus stake);
1.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic to decision at -120 to win 1 unit (plus stake);
1 unit on Soszynski at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);
1 unit on McCray at -106 to win 0.943 units (plus stake);
1.3 units on Sadollah by decision at +150 to win 1.95 units (plus stake);
0.25 units on Sadollah Submission of the Night to win 1.75 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on Matyushenko by decision at +120 to win 0.6 units (plus stake);
0.5 units on 'Any under-card fighter getting Submission of the Night' at +150 to win 0.75 units (plus stake);
0.125 units on Alexandre Ferreira to win by Submission to win 0.5 units (plus stake);
0.825 units on Siver/Winner to go to decision to win 0.55 units (plus stake);
0.55 units on Winner by decision at +187.5 to win 1.31 units (plus stake).
0.2 units on Soszynski/Reljic being 'Fight of the Night' at +500 to win 1 unit (plus stake);
0.5 units on Sakara/Rivera being 'Fight of the Night' at +400 to win 2 units (plus stake); VOID
0.1 units on Rivera KO of the Night at +700 to win 0.7 units (plus stake). VOID
Total stake: 59.35 units (excludes Rivera/Sakara plays as bets were voided and stakes returned)
Total returns: 76.705
Profit: 17.355 units
Very successful night to say the least! All of the main card fights went as I expected except for Siver/Winner. Winner was too aggressive and desperate to get the KO, the Lentz debacle obviously left him feeling very frustrated and this did not help as it led to him getting too close to Siver and sitting in the pocket. If Siver had of been the fighter coming forward I think Winner would have had an advantage with his counter striking and reach. Rough House are in terrible form and a great fade currently (Hardy, Osipczak, Winner, Pearson have all lost at least once in recent months) and this is mostly due to poor gameplanning, over-zealousness and partly complacency and cockiness. Osipczak will probly get cut now but Winner will be given one more chance I think because of his potential KO power and exciting style.
Looking forward to UFC 123 next weekend now...it has some great potential to win a few more units! Finally gonna get some sleep now after being awake for past 48hrs!Comment -
you sure paddypower won't cancel your noke bet? hopefully they won't... great steal
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Do you have to be foreign to get a paddy power account? Good event by the way!!Comment -
Might as well get the question out of the way: do you tack your freak bank error cash-in onto your career prediction yield?Comment -
I've not had any freak bank error!? What do you mean? If you mean do I include these bets were I get a fighter at generous odds in my prediction record than no I don't, but I do include them on my record on here as this about showing how to make money off MMA rather than tryin to prove that I'm amazing at predicting who will a fight! Of course, getting Claude Patrick at +137.5 and getting Noke at +162.5 doesn't mean I'm great at predicting who will win a fight or anything (although I did state that I was going to take Patrick way before 120 at up to -150). I'd of still made almost 2 units profit last night even if I didnt have the Noke/Kimmons arb bet due to cashing Sadollah by dec, Soszynski and Soszynski by dec, and Marquadt/Okami to decision. At the end of the day, I don't just bet on MMA just for the sake of it, and although it is fun, my main reason is always to make money!Comment -
First UFC 123 Play:
0.1 units on Maiquel Falcao to win in Round 1 at +650 to win 0.65 units (plus stake).
Only a small play but I feel if Falcao is going to beat Harris it will be in the first round. I expect him to come out aggressively looking for the TKO/KO early which will result in either him finishing Harris in the first round OR him not finishing and coming out in the second round a lot slower and possible gassed leading to Harris TKO/KO'ing him late in the second or during the third round, or taking a decision.Comment
