Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Havent seen the fights yet, but seemed like the event was crazy. Congrats to all of the dog backers.

141 Castillo, Pearson, Nunes and the Mauler

yeah it was crazy and all the shock outcomes that you wouldnt expect all to happen in one night happened!

Yeah Castillo if he's the dog against Njokuani for sure - be interesting to see that line. Pearson and Nunes will probably be too heavy favourites for me. Gustaffsson's odds are steep as well, think I'll look at Gustaffsson TKO/KO or KO of the Night. Dont think I'll have much on this card. Cerrone/Diaz FOTN will be my main big play probably at +300 or better - but then again it almost seems to easy/good to be true!

[Vaughany]

Tis the season to be generous…

With the holidays upon us, many people look for ways to give back, to share with loved ones and to be selfless and giving. Dana White and Lorenzo Fertitta are apparently no different.

We announced here on BJPENN.COM a few weeks ago that Dan Miller’s son was in desperate need of surgery to replace an abnormal kidney.

With the cost of the procedure being so high, the Miller family set up the “Daniel James Miller Foundation” and everyone from friends and family to the MMA Community took part and tried to provide some relief to them through charitable donations.

With time ticking away, UFC president Dana White as well as CEO Lorenzo Fertitta made substantial donations that will provide the family with all the relief they need and then some.

Miller’s coach, Mike Constantino announced the news to mmajunkie.com:

“Zuffa went above and beyond to make sure that Daniel James Miller and his aunt Kathy, who will be the living donor, will have the absolute best health care and the funding possible to make the surgery happen. In addition to that, Dana and Lorenzo also made a substantial donation to the Daniel James Miller Foundation.”

“I would like to thank Dana and Lorenzo for reaching out to help Dan Miller and his family. Zuffa has proven time and time again that they take care of their own, and they should be recognized for that. These are the things that make being a part of the UFC family so special.”

“…The MMA community really stepped up, and I am very proud to say that I am a part of it.”

[gabe]

Manny's gonna upset Diego.

He was asking who he should fight next (on facebook,) I suggested Diego Nunes and Josh Grispi. I ran into him after his fight with Diego was announced and he said he called Diego out. Must be confident he can win.

[Vaughany]

Manny's gonna upset Diego.

He was asking who he should fight next (on facebook,) I suggested Diego Nunes and Josh Grispi. I ran into him after his fight with Diego was announced and he said he called Diego out. Must be confident he can win.

Should get good odds on him thn, guess he'll be at least +220 or better

[Beelzebubzy]

do you think Volkmann will be a heavy fav over Escudero?

[Vaughany]

do you think Volkmann will be a heavy fav over Escudero?

Be very surprised if he isn't at least -300. If Nick at Bookmaker sets the line which he probably will it will be at least -300 probably -350, if sportbet/5dimes release we might get better!

[gabe]

Be very surprised if he isn't at least -300. If Nick at Bookmaker sets the line which he probably will it will be at least -300 probably -350, if sportbet/5dimes release we might get better!

I feel that could be another possible upset. I would take a shot at Escudero as a big dog. Wouldn't be the first time he's come through as a big dog. And he needs a win REALLY badly, otherwise he's cut again.

[Vaughany]

I feel that could be another possible upset. I would take a shot at Escudero as a big dog. Wouldn't be the first time he's come through as a big dog. And he needs a win REALLY badly, otherwise he's cut again.

I guess nobody can argue that Volkmann has better striking and standing is where it will start obviously so maybe Efrain can pull off a TKO like he did against Cole Miller if Volkmann underestimates him. Volkmann must be a little pissed that he keeps getting low level guys - for me Escudero is a step-down from Castillo and even Antonio McKee. Volkmann will clearly have a bigger grappling and size advantage then Escudero will have striking advantage (if he does at all) so I find it hard to imagine him losing. I'll be looking at Volkmann by Sub prop as his odds will probably be too steep straight up and he'll probably be favoured to win by decision rather than sub so might get some value there. I don't think Escudero would be able to survive like Castillo did if Volkmann snaps on a choke. And as already said, I think Volkmann will go into this a little pissed off and will want to put a stamp on it with a finish.

[Vaughany]

Summary of UFC 140 Plays:


6.25 units on Jones/Machida to End by TKO/KO at -125 to win 5 units;

10.483 units on Jones/Machida to End by TKO/KO at -162.5 to win 6.451 units;

4.167 units on Jones by TKO/KO at +120 to win 5 units;

5 units on Not Jones Inside the Distance at +151 to win 7.55 units;

0.312 units on Jon Jones SOTN at +1600 to win 4.992 units;


10 units on Mir by TKO/KO or DQ at +475 to win 47.5 units;

0.236 units on Mir by TKO/KO at +550 to win 1.298 units;

Parlay: 1.859 units on Nelson by TKO/KO (+140), Benson Henderson (-230), & Mir (-260) to win 7.006 units;

1.568 units on Mir/Big Nog Under 2.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.307 units;

1.933 units on Mir/Big Nog to Not Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.289 units;

1 unit on Mir KOTN at +900 to win 9 units;

0.242 units on Big Nog KOTN at +4000 to win 9.68 units;


8.286 units on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at -161 to win 5.147 units;

7.5 units on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at -150 to win 5 units;*

1.783 units on Nogueira/Ortiz to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.297 units;


17.903 units on Mark Hominick at -280 to win 6.394 units;

8.033 units on Hominick by TKO/KO or DQ at +375 to win 30.124 units;

0.343 units on Hominick by TKO/KO at +400 to win 1.372 units;

0.625 units on Hominick/Korean Zombie FOTN at +800 to win 5 units;


1.568 units on Ebersole/Patrick to Go the Distance at -120 to win 1.307 units;


10 units on Soszynski at -205 to win 4.878 units;


10 units on Attonito at -215 to win 4.651 units;


Parlay: 3.197 units on Not Jabouin by Submission (-1580), Not Makdessi by Submission (-5430), Hamman/Philippou Starts Round (-308), Not Korean Zombie by TKO/KO (-2100), Not Ebersole by Submission (-825), Not Ortiz by Submission (-2825), Not Mir by Submission (-1035), Not Machida by Submission (-5550), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not go the Distance (-600) to win 4.067 units;


Parlay: 1.599 units on Makdessi/Hallman Over 1.5 Rounds (-190), Hominick/Korean Zombie Starts Round 2 (-275), Ortiz/Nogueira Starts Round 2 (-525), Jones/Machida Starts Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 4.489 units.


*Have an arb as back-up my Lil Nog plays. Will make 6.809 units if Ortiz wins (+190) or stake back if Lil Nog wins (-162.5). Also have an arb with Mir/Nog - will make 2.828 units profit if fight goes the distance, or 0.412 units if it doesn't go distance.

Adding:


1.391 units on Bocek at -145 to win 0.959 units.

Adding:


6.394 units on Hominick/Korean Zombie Starts Round 2 (-265), Jones/Machida Starts Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 7.143 units.

UFC 140 Review:


Total loss: -15.065 units


Pending parlay:

Adding:


Parlay: 6.394 units on Ebersole/Patrick to Start Round 2 (-470), Not Ortiz by Submission (-4100), Jones/Machida to Start Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 5.804 units.

Dodged a bullet with this event thanks to Unibet upholding Mir by TKO/KO.

[kmdubya]

Tis the season to be generous…

With the holidays upon us, many people look for ways to give back, to share with loved ones and to be selfless and giving. Dana White and Lorenzo Fertitta are apparently no different.

We announced here on BJPENN.COM a few weeks ago that Dan Miller’s son was in desperate need of surgery to replace an abnormal kidney.

With the cost of the procedure being so high, the Miller family set up the “Daniel James Miller Foundation” and everyone from friends and family to the MMA Community took part and tried to provide some relief to them through charitable donations.

With time ticking away, UFC president Dana White as well as CEO Lorenzo Fertitta made substantial donations that will provide the family with all the relief they need and then some.

Miller’s coach, Mike Constantino announced the news to mmajunkie.com:

“Zuffa went above and beyond to make sure that Daniel James Miller and his aunt Kathy, who will be the living donor, will have the absolute best health care and the funding possible to make the surgery happen. In addition to that, Dana and Lorenzo also made a substantial donation to the Daniel James Miller Foundation.”

“I would like to thank Dana and Lorenzo for reaching out to help Dan Miller and his family. Zuffa has proven time and time again that they take care of their own, and they should be recognized for that. These are the things that make being a part of the UFC family so special.”

“…The MMA community really stepped up, and I am very proud to say that I am a part of it.”

That is good to hear. With the number of times Dan Miller has stepped up on short notice or NOT dropped out of a fight (when he had every reason to) it's good to see the UFC properly repay him and his family.

[racistrapist]

That is good to hear. With the number of times Dan Miller has stepped up on short notice or NOT dropped out of a fight (when he had every reason to) it's good to see the UFC properly repay him and his family.

Zuffa is still owned by d-bags...don't let one kind gesture make you think otherwise

[bjpenn85]

I think its pathetic that he has to make a foundation. UFC should just pay him all he needs straight up. I totally agree. They are not saints at all.

[Vaughany]

Zuffa is still owned by d-bags...don't let one kind gesture make you think otherwise

One kind gesture you say?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Dana-White-pays-for-infant-s-life-saving-surgery?urn=mma-298359

[Poppa Catfish]

One kind gesture you say?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cag...urn=mma-298359

Bullshit, Dana White is a high powered wizard, he has all the tools to cure the ailment, he just didn't want to. So Evil.

[Vaughany]

I think its pathetic that he has to make a foundation. UFC should just pay him all he needs straight up. I totally agree. They are not saints at all.

So does every other owner of every organisation pay for all of his staff's personal problems? For instance, if a toilet cleaner at Sky has a son who needs surgery do you think Rupert Murdoch covers that? A lot of owners wouldnt do what Dana and Fertitta do because they are worried about being taken advantage of, like what's to say that another fighter doesnt now contact Dana and say his brother's son has a dodgy ticker and needs surgery, can you pay for it?

[Vaughany]

Bullshit, Dana White is a high powered wizard, he has all the tools to cure the ailment, he just didn't want to. So Evil.

[Poppa Catfish]

So does every other owner of every organisation pay for all of his staff's personal problems? For instance, if a toilet cleaner at Sky has a son who needs surgery do you think Rupert Murdoch covers that? A lot of owners wouldnt do what Dana and Fertitta do because they are worried about being taken advantage of, like what's to say that another fighter doesnt now contact Dana and say his brother's son has a dodgy ticker and needs surgery, can you pay for it?

All well and true. Of course this is assuming that Zuffa was approached with this problem in the first place. Or am I forgetting that Dana White is omnipotent? Who knows really, not really worth speculating on some of this stuff.

It however is a whole lot of fun watching Josh Thomson troll the hell out of people on facebook

[Poppa Catfish]

I should add that all we really know is that they contributed what would appear to be a large sum of money.

Those bastards!

[Vaughany]

All well and true. Of course this is assuming that Zuffa was approached with this problem in the first place. Or am I forgetting that Dana White is omnipotent? Who knows really, not really worth speculating on some of this stuff.

It however is a whole lot of fun watching Josh Thomson troll the hell out of people on facebook

ha yeah, I laughed at his recent status... "I have a question... What's the point of bein a lesbian if your just gonna date a girl that looks like a guy?"!

[Poppa Catfish]

My friend lays in to him pretty good.

[bjpenn85]

The two employees you compare is a toilet cleaner and a cage fighter? ok. i wont even comment that. ok i will...but...lissen dan miller in his daily work is exposed for significant health risk. The ufc does make big money of that. It is Dan Millers personal choice to do that, but that doesnt make the ufc less responsible to provide him, in my opinion. Another aspect is that Dan miller represent a perfect employee. Its natural that the ufc do compensate him, for the quite difficult situation Dan miller has ended up in. It doesnt hurt the sport either. Just pay Dan Miller the got damn money he deserves. Its a bout moral, and its about responsibility.

[Vaughany]

The two employees you compare is a toilet cleaner and a cage fighter? ok. i wont even comment that. ok i will...but...lissen dan miller in his daily work is exposed for significant health risk. The ufc does make big money of that. It is Dan Millers personal choice to do that, but that doesnt make the ufc less responsible to provide him, in my opinion. Another aspect is that Dan miller represent a perfect employee. Its natural that the ufc do compensate him, for the quite difficult situation Dan miller has ended up in. It doesnt hurt the sport either. Just pay Dan Miller the got damn money he deserves. Its a bout moral, and its about responsibility.

Yes they are extreme examples, but for an employee it shouldn't make a difference whether you are a toilet cleaner or a cage fighter though, my point is that a boss can't give preferential treatment to somebody in his business just because they are in a higher position. Are you saying that a toilet cleaner doesn't deserve to have costs covered by his boss because of his role, but Dan Miller does because he's a cage fighter? Yes, Dan Miller is exposed to significant health risk, but it's his kids that are ill, not him. Yes, an argument of course can be made that he should be paid a lot more, but then if they pay him more then the UFC will have to pay everybody else more in relation.

[bjpenn85]

1. A boss can give a preferential treatment to somebody. Soldiers in the middle east get that. Even the most suspect regime actually gives that, am i not right? The toilet cleaner should get compensation or preferential treatmens, if he deserves to. In your example, where you didnt come up with an example...well he shouldnt.
2. One kid died, one is very ill. Do you mean that this matter doesn't significantly affect dan millers health?
3. I agree, he and a lot of fighters, especially the fighters outside the very top should be paid more. Maybe then they wouldn't even beg for money in the first place. An operation they cant afford for a sick child....like i said in the beginning...its pathetic.

[Vaughany]

1. A boss can give a preferential treatment to somebody. Soldiers in the middle east get that. Even the most suspect regime actually gives that, am i not right? The toilet cleaner should get compensation or preferential treatmens, if he deserves to. In your example, where you didnt come up with an example...well he shouldnt.
2. One kid died, one is very ill. Do you mean that this matter doesn't significantly affect dan millers health?
3. I agree, he and a lot of fighters, especially the fighters outside the very top should be paid more. Maybe then they wouldn't even beg for money in the first place. An operation they cant afford for a sick child....like i said in the beginning...its pathetic.

Yes you are right that certain types of employee get preferential treatment, but technically speaking in theory they shouldn't and that is where I'm coming from. And yes obviously Dan Miller is seriously affected by this, it's impossible to imagine the levels of stress he must be going through and amount of pressure on his shoulders. My point is that he won't be the first person to go through something like this and wont be the last...that is why Dana and Lorenzo contributing should be commended as you can't expect them to do it for every single charity case out there. But yes, if he cant afford the surgery because he isn't getting paid enough by his company - Zuffa - then u are absolutely correct, of course they should be paying. But then it's a hotly debated subject matter whether fighters get paid enough, and we don't know the full disclosed amounts that they get anyway.

[bjpenn85]

True. I am not disagreeing with anything of what you just said.

[Burgo]

There's no way theses fighters are getting what they are worth

This is what happens when there is a near monopoly on the top 200 - 300 mma fighters

[BIGDAY]

ha yeah, I laughed at his recent status... "I have a question... What's the point of bein a lesbian if your just gonna date a girl that looks like a guy?"!

And on the other topic, of course I'm glad Zuffa steped up in this situation. However, a business is a business. Zuffa and the UFC donate to many causes and charities, this should be looked at the same. I do believe they should be praised as this is above and beyond their lengthy list of charity work. They are also sticking their neck out for future criticism from public if another fighter's family has complications. I simply look at what they did as a generous act, nothing more, nothing less. In fact, if I was in Miller's shoes, I would look at it as a donation and not as a check from my boss. And I think he is handling it well.

[Vaughany]

UFC 141 plays:


2.395 units on Overeem/Lesnar to End by TKO/KO at -187.5 to win 1.277 units;

1.547 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Be Under 1.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.289 units;

0.466 units on Overeem to Win in Round 1 at +275 to win 1.282 units.

[Beelzebubzy]

UFC 141 plays:


2.395 units on Overeem/Lesnar to End by TKO/KO at -187.5 to win 1.277 units;

1.547 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Be Under 1.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.289 units;

0.466 units on Overeem to Win in Round 1 at +275 to win 1.282 units.

so you are ruling out a triangle by Lesnar? Hmmmm.

[Vaughany]

so you are ruling out a triangle by Lesnar? Hmmmm.

ha Nope, an arm-triangle is certainly possible, and a Overeem guillotine is also very possible - we shouldn't forget that he choked out Belfort earlier in his career - he is still the better submission artist even if Lesnar is clearly the better wrestler. I've got Lesnar inside distance as well. I don't see how this goes the distance so I'll happily play both inside the distance.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

Parlay: 0.644 units on Melendez (-310), Fitch (-220), Overeem Inside the Distance (-123), & Aldo (-245) to win 2.517 units;


6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +175 to win 11.263 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +161 to win 10.362 units.

[Vaughany]

FEAR FACTOR IS BACK! Some light entertainment and comedy presenting from Rogan!... http://videobb.com/watch_video.php?v=hJnVzhweQkA5

[gabe]

First two Fear Factor eps are up on Hulu

[Vaughany]

yeah I just posted the first one...I watch shit through sidereel

[Vaughany]

I really hope these contestants are actors! The fat black dude is comedy!