Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[rocky mattioli]

gsp can run...but he can`t hide !



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[Vitooch]

I didn't even plan on betting on that fight.

Maybe not Condit by decision may have been included in a parlay

[TheCalculator]

What a fawkery...

[stefan084]

since Penn/Diaz is now the main event will it be 5 rds? if so maybe jump on Diaz by dec

[proposition joe]

since Penn/Diaz is now the main event will it be 5 rds? if so maybe jump on Diaz by dec

Dana is saying no. Otherwise, I would become quite nervous about my Penn bet.

[Vitooch]

Dana is saying no. Otherwise, I would become quite nervous about my Penn bet.

If they changed it to five rounds, I would pray that the bets we have made for the initial three round fight would be cancelled. If so, Penn's line would improve and I would once again bet on Penn, just for better value.

But they prob won't happen

[sideloaded]

If they changed it to five rounds, I would pray that the bets we have made for the initial three round fight would be cancelled. If so, Penn's line would improve and I would once again bet on Penn, just for better value.

But they prob won't happen

bets would definitely NOT be canceled. Do the sportsbooks refund your bet if the starting quarter back gets hurt?

[TheCalculator]

Speaking of "no refunds"... I had about 30 parlays with GSP and Condit -- and they ARE NOT cancelled. Which really sucks... And of course, they're readjusting the payout. I would of cancelled 95% of them. This is with 5 dimes btw.

[stefan084]

If they changed it to five rounds, I would pray that the bets we have made for the initial three round fight would be cancelled. If so, Penn's line would improve and I would once again bet on Penn, just for better value.

But they prob won't happen

you would be correct to bet Penn again imo

[Vitooch]

bets would definitely NOT be canceled. Do the sportsbooks refund your bet if the starting quarter back gets hurt?

Awful comparison. Changing the structure/format/ of the match is different from an injury.

[Vitooch]

you would be correct to bet Penn again imo

I don't see this fight lasting five, or even three rounds. I've already made a wager on B.J straight up but may also add a fight ending inside the distance bet in case Diaz pulls off a submission or even TKO.

I predict that this fight will be a very exciting brawl, similar to most of Diaz's fights. I can def see someone getting rocked and finished by sub, with Penn more likely the victor IMO.

[TheCalculator]

I'm going with Diaz on this one. I believe Diaz's street fighter's edge will be the deciding factor.

[CTM]

Speaking of "no refunds"... I had about 30 parlays with GSP and Condit -- and they ARE NOT cancelled. Which really sucks... And of course, they're readjusting the payout. I would of cancelled 95% of them. This is with 5 dimes btw.

I hear ya.

I made a 5dimes $100 parlay on Sanchez to finish Hughes, GSP to finish Diaz, and Cain to finish JDS. Within a couple days of placing it, 2 out of the 3 fights were cancelled, but they still wouldn't cancel the parlay So my "parlay" payout was reduced from over 3K to $140, lol.

[Vitooch]

I'm going with Diaz on this one. I believe Diaz's street fighter's edge will be the deciding factor.

It may have given him the edge against the likes of Santos, Noons, and Daley, but I'm not too sure it will prove the difference against the likes of such a well-rounded, skilled, and proven fighter like Penn.

As impressive as Diaz has been of late, his last few opponents just do not compare to Penn's.

Fitch(#2 WW), Edgar (arguably #4 P4P fighter), Sanchez (arguably top 10 WW/LW), Florian (top 10 LW/FW)....

Diaz's last few opponents aren't even in the top 20.

[bjpenn85]

true, but i dont know if sanchez or florian could have traded with daley for fun and KOd him either. It is important to be critical to who a fighter beats but equally how he beats them. Diaz is always game, but BJ is on and off , but he always lacks cardio or fade as the fight progress. i dont think of betting on this matchup as it is 50 50, but i think diaz has the advantage after round 1.

[proposition joe]

true, but i dont know if sanchez or florian could have traded with daley for fun and KOd him either. It is important to be critical to who a fighter beats but equally how he beats them. Diaz is always game, but BJ is on and off , but he always lacks cardio or fade as the fight progress. i dont think of betting on this matchup as it is 50 50, but i think diaz has the advantage after round 1.

Way to have confidence in yourself BJ. Get your shit together, I've got $$$ on you.

[Vaughany]

true, but i dont know if sanchez or florian could have traded with daley for fun and KOd him either. It is important to be critical to who a fighter beats but equally how he beats them. Diaz is always game, but BJ is on and off , but he always lacks cardio or fade as the fight progress. i dont think of betting on this matchup as it is 50 50, but i think diaz has the advantage after round 1.

He doesnt always gas late, he only got better against Sanchez and that was 5 rounds. And finished Florian late

[bjpenn85]

haha

[bjpenn85]

true, he doesnt always shut down. But on more occasions than i like. I def avoid betting on him in this fight. i am my own worst enemy like guillard.

[Vaughany]

At the end of the day, I just got an AMEN from Ben Henderson so all is good!.. @acvaughan87: @SMOOTHone155 CAN I GET AN AMEN?!”always...AMEN...

[Spaceman Spiff]

lol at bendo, " always". Dude really loves him some Jesus.

[Vaughany]

lol at bendo, " always". Dude really loves him some Jesus.

ha yeah I knew he'd bite at something as simple as asking for an "AMEN"!

[Vaughany]

Bellator 55 play:


5.731 units on M'Pumbu at -190 to win 3.016 units.

[proposition joe]

Bellator 55 play:


5.731 units on M'Pumbu at -190 to win 3.016 units.

Great play. -190 is a steal.

[Grabaka]

BOF bro?

Edit...also how do you see hioki by sub paying out?

[Vaughany]

BOF bro?

Edit...also how do you see hioki by sub paying out?

Well Hioki inside distance is +115 so Hioki by Sub will probably be no better than +150 or around that. I'm going to wait and play Hioki Submission of the Night at +400 or better. And what's BOF brah!?

[Grabaka]

Well Hioki inside distance is +115 so Hioki by Sub will probably be no better than +150 or around that. I'm going to wait and play Hioki Submission of the Night at +400 or better. And what's BOF brah!?

BetOnFighting
Thanks amigo

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units.

[TheCalculator]

Nice one -- I did a few of those myself. In some fights -- I think it's almost easier to predict how things AREN'T going to go -- then how they are going to go.

Adding:


Parlay: 6.343 units on Griffin/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-675), Not Siver by Submission (-2120), Not Roop by Submission (-4740), Nelson/Cro-Cop Starts Round 2 (-306), Diaz/Penn Starts Round 2 (-670), & Not Guida Inside the Distance (-1282) to win 6.457 units.

[NinjaDMP]

I'm on M'Pumbu as well, good luck!

[Vaughany]

Nice one -- I did a few of those myself. In some fights -- I think it's almost easier to predict how things AREN'T going to go -- then how they are going to go.

Yeah hopefully the shock finishes (Edgar TKO, Sonnen Sub) are done with for a while!

[TheCalculator]

Sonnen sub wrecked me. I had Lauzon sub + Sonnen decision to win over $100.

[TheCalculator]

Hey Vaughany - I opened up an account at PaddyPower -- just curious why you like them? They're odds aren't super hot. They do parlays though which is strong.

[bjpenn85]

they suck. They limit you once you actually win. Its a killer site until the point they realize you're not good for their business.

[TheCalculator]

they suck. They limit you once you actually win. Its a killer site until the point they realize you're not good for their business.

How deep do they limit you? What's the cap per bet?