Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Donde esta la biblioteca?

Fenomenal!

Just seen ur tweet about Leben not gettin KO of the Night...sucks balls, could of done with that to make another 3 units!

[Vaughany]

UFC 132 Results:

UFC 132 Plays so far:


6.1 units on Dominick Cruz by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;


6.22 units on Wanderlei Silva at +120 to win 7.466 units;

4.853 units on Wanderlei/Leben to not go the Distance at -130 to win 3.733 units;

0.178 units on Leben KO of the Night at +1800 to win 3.204 units;

0.475 units on Leben by KO at +800 to win 3.8 units;


2 units on Wiman at +120 to win 2.4 units;

4.8 units on Wiman/Siver to go the Distance at -120 to win 4 units;

0.067 units on Wiman KO of the Night at +3000 to win 2.01 units;


6.1 units on Stungun by Decision at +170 to win 10.4 units;

3.946 units on Condit/Stungun to go the Distance at -150 to win 2.631 units;


0.782 units on Simpson by Decision at +175 to win 1.369 units;

0.357 units on Tavares by KO at +400 to win 1.428 units;


0.05 units on Winner by KO at +900 to win 0.45 units;


Parlay: 6.24 units on Andre Ward & Bader to win 2.476 units;

Parlay: 0.624 units on Guillard, Not Bader by Submission, Not Leben by Submission, Not Faber by Submission, Condit/Stungun Starts Rnd 2, Wiman/Siver goes the distance, Sotiropolous by decision, & Miller/Henderson goes distance to win 4.783 units;

Parlay: 0.1 units on Barnett by Submission, Condit/Stungun to Decision, & Bader by Decision to win 0.931 units.


Also having following parlay that has some UFC 132 fights involved:

4 out of 6 folds parlay: 0.855 units (0.057 units per line) on Barnet/Rogers to not go the Distance, Sturm by Decision, Bader by decision, Wiman by decision, Stungun/Condit goes the Distance, & Davis/Evans goes the Distance to win 13.815 units.


Also have a risk-free arb involving Bader/Tito which will net me just over 9 units if Bader doesn't win by decision and 27 units if Bader does win by decision (won't be included on my record on here).

Added:

0.4 units on Wiman Submission of the Night at +2800 to win 11.2 units;

Couldn't pass up on this flier at such great odds! Fight is likely to go distance but can't rule out Wiman latching on a guillotine during a scramble which will inevitably happen when Siver tries to get back to his feet. Also dont anticipate there being many submissions tonight which should help.


0.5 units on Njokuani/Winner to go Over 2.5 Rnds at +120 to win 0.6 units;


0.05 units on Njokuani KO of the Night at +1200 to win 0.6 units;


0.05 units on Guillard KO of the Night at +650 to win 0.325 units;


Parlay: 3.111 units on Bowles, Not Dos Anjos by Submission, Guillard, Not Siver in Rnd 1, & Not Leben by Submission to win 3.303 units.

Adding:

2 units on Condit by Decision at +375 to win 7.5 units;

0.312 units on Condit in Rnd 3 at +1600 to win 4.992 units;


2.5 units on Wiman at +110 to win 2.75 units.

Review:

Total stake: 52.62 units (exluding risk-free arb)

Return: 54.403 units

Profit: +1.783 units

Not the lucrative night that I expected but ended up with +11.527 units in total thanks to the Bader/Ortiz arb (which made me 9.774 units) so not as bad as it could of been. The event in general was epic though!

[Chairib]

Fenomenal!

Just seen ur tweet about Leben not gettin KO of the Night...sucks balls, could of done with that to make another 3 units!

I think they all could be KO of the night, no disrespect to Condit because that was a sweet knee. But Leben's KO of Silva is easily the highlight KO of his entire career.

Definitely another shining example of why you shouldn't try to Muay Thai clinch with a taller fighter.

[cheeese]

Even though it sucks for gamblingand his career, at least Wand will always fight like Wand. As soon as he smelled blood he ran in to try to kill and got killed. I'll miss that old school "I don't give a ****" fighting spirit.

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale:-16.766 units
UFC 131:+17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum:+11.474 units
UFC Versus 4:+25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units

Total profit: +363.267 units

[v1y]

Que?

It's a shot against Ladle, who would disagree with the insinuation that dos anjos is a contender (since dos anjos is still quite a few fights away from a title shot), even though in the real world (as you just demonstrated) the term contender is generally used much more broadly than that.

[Vaughany]

It's a shot against Ladle, who would disagree with the insinuation that dos anjos is a contender (since dos anjos is still quite a few fights away from a title shot).

Ah I see, but I was talking about contenders for KO of the Night, not title shot condenders! Although coincidently Guillard and Condit defo are contenders currently!

[v1y]

Ah I see, but I was talking about contenders for KO of the Night, not title shot condenders! Although coincidently Guillard and Condit defo are contenders currently!

Ah k, my bad.

[Ladle]

ah k, my bad.

EPIC fail.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[v1y]

epic? i wouldn't go that far. (let alone bold it)

Besides, dos anjos is definitely a contender. 4-1 run in the ufc, his lone loss is to a definite contender in a fight he was winning.

[Ladle]

epic? i wouldn't go that far. (let alone bold it)

Besides, dos anjos is definitely a contender. 4-1 run in the ufc, his lone loss is to a definite contender in a fight he was winning.

Dude, don't pollute Vaughany's thread with your crazy contender talk. We hijacked the A-train/Tavares thread for a reason.

[Ladle]

Ah I see, but I was talking about contenders for KO of the Night, not title shot condenders! Although coincidently Guillard and Condit defo are contenders currently!

Ah, yes! Now that's what I call contenders!

[Chairib]

Even though it sucks for gamblingand his career, at least Wand will always fight like Wand. As soon as he smelled blood he ran in to try to kill and got killed. I'll miss that old school "I don't give a ****" fighting spirit.

Though one could make the argument if Wandy really didn't give a ****, he would have agreed to the rematch with Vitor at UFC Brazil.

[rafa martin]

thanks bro!,,, just because is difficult to bet all your props bets and those kind of magic arbs than you do,,,,i just picked cruz, silva and the one that the odds were at 1.16, bader .... i parlayed them but cannot believe how he lost,,oh well! this will make you stronger for next fights
saw you were here in malaga,,,i was there too,,last week but not drinking so much like you did..just taking care of my little kids,,but would be nice to meet you once there.... hope we can arrange a meeting one day.....
will be using paddy power only for your bets..so thanks a lot for what you do master....will you like my sbr points tell me,,,i do not know what to do with them.
best of luck

[Vaughany]

thanks bro!,,, just because is difficult to bet all your props bets and those kind of magic arbs than you do,,,,i just picked cruz, silva and the one that the odds were at 1.16, bader .... i parlayed them but cannot believe how he lost,,oh well! this will make you stronger for next fights
saw you were here in malaga,,,i was there too,,last week but not drinking so much like you did..just taking care of my little kids,,but would be nice to meet you once there.... hope we can arrange a meeting one day.....
will be using paddy power only for your bets..so thanks a lot for what you do master....will you like my sbr points tell me,,,i do not know what to do with them.
best of luck

Yeah Sat night was one of those random nights with many spectacular outcomes! Im sure the next few events will be less undpredictable.

I was in Fuengirola, Puerta Banus and Sotogrande most the time, nice and hot!

[Vaughany]

UFC 133 Plays:


10.265 units on Davis/Evans to go the Distance at -165 to win 6.221 units;

10.576 units on Davis/Evans to go the Distance at -170 to win 6.221 units.


Capped this fight to go distance at -200. Really expect one of the two to scrape a decision, only other possible outcome I can imagine is Evans by TKO/KO so may hedge with that at +400 or better.

[Vaughany]

...

[Chairib]

I actually found his sweep to be more impressive.

[Wrecked]

I thought the Guillard tko was better.
He's definitely going to be the light weight champ soon enough.

[Vaughany]

I actually found his sweep to be more impressive.

Yeah tht was sick...especially against somebody like Stungun with his top-control and balance

[illmatick]

haha, Once I saw that sweep Condit immediately jumped to about -250 in my head. Damn shame we didn't get a chance to bet Condit during live round betting. Would have been a gift going into round 2.

[Chairib]

Yeah tht was sick...especially against somebody like Stungun with his top-control and balance

It was a quick but really interesting sequence of grappling involving both fighters. I originally thought Condit used the butterfly sweep but after watching it a couple of times it doesn't seem to be the case. If you watch closely he decided to trap and control Kim's right hand but he was also using his left leg as the butterfly hook. Meaning the the hook and trapping hand were both on the left and that rules out the butterfly sweep.

[v1y]

edited because this post was unnecessarily dickish.

[Vaughany]

edited because this post was unnecessarily dickish.

[818z_finest]

edited because this post was unnecessarily dickish.

[Vaughany]

...

[jacktheknife]

Is it me, or was Condit pulling the fence?

[urge2kill]

He clearly used the fence to roll.

[Vaughany]

Gotta feeling Siver vs Stephens is on the cards

[kmdubya]

Is it me, or was Condit pulling the fence?

No way. His fingers never got close to getting in the cage. He pushed off and used his feet. No problems with that.

[Wrecked]

^ Agreed

[PunisherIND]

Gotta feeling Siver vs Stephens is on the cards

Vaughany, do you have some insider connections??? This was just reported on mmajunkie:

"Although he said it's not an official "callout" and he has no ill will, Jeremy Stephens has issued a challenge. He wants a fight with fellow lightweight contender Dennis Siver."

[Hannibal]

Maybe it was obvious?
Match two contenders that have been winning...and both guys love to bang. They love to match up guys like this.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, do you have some insider connections??? This was just reported on mmajunkie:

"Although he said it's not an official "callout" and he has no ill will, Jeremy Stephens has issued a challenge. He wants a fight with fellow lightweight contender Dennis Siver."

haha There was a big hint on Lil Heathen's blog the other day, he was watching the fights and taking particular interest in the Siver/Wiman fight.

[Chairib]

he actually asked the UFC for the fight on twitter right after the decision was announced