[JIBBBY]

Fighting odds on all books - https://fightodds.io/mma-events/4483...s-usman-3/odds

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






145 lbs.: Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1 ) defied the odds and a disastrous start to force Zubaira Tukhugov to a draw in his UFC debut. Subsequent efforts proved more decisive, and he enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a three-fight winning streak.
“The Miracle” fights for the first time in 17.5 months.
Gabriel Santos’ (10-0) run on the Brazilian circuit culminated in a decision over Elvis Silva to win the Future MMA Featherweight title. He then took his talent to LFA, knocking out Marcio Barbosa in his debut before claiming its Featherweight title with a third-round finish of Jose Delano.
He steps in for the gruesomely injured Nathaniel Wood on just over a week’s notice.
This really is just a question of how much the layoff took out of Murphy. If he’s firing on all cylinders, it’s his fight to lose; he’s a faster and more dynamic striker than Santos, who lacks the wrestling to overpower Murphy on the mat the way Tukhugov and Makwan Amirkhani did. What Santos does have, however, is impressive grit and pressure that could give “The Miracle” hell if too much rust piled up.
I feel like being an optimist this time around. Murphy’s just too athletic and destructive for Santos’ decent-but-unspectacular offense to overcome. He’ll find the finish before the third.
Prediction: Murphy via second round technical knockout
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185 lbs.: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Dusko Todorovic

Christian Leroy Duncan (7-0) put together a four-year, 17-6 amateur career before turning professional in 2020. He’s since fought exclusively in Cage Warriors, ultimately knocking out Djati Melan for its Middleweight title in April 2022 and defending it against Marian Dimitrov seven months later.
His five professional knockouts include two via spinning techniques and one via flying knee.
After knocking out Michel Pereira, Dusko Todorovic (12-3) Todorovic capped off a perfect (9-0) professional start by grinding out Teddy Ash on Contender Series. He currently sits at 3-3 in the Octagon, most recently stopping Jordan Wright in their Oct. 2022 “Fight of the Night.”
He is one inch shorter than Duncan at 6’1.”
On paper, Todorovic’s grueling slog is a decent counter to Duncan’s free-flowing style, which leaves plenty of openings for “Thunder” to get in on his hips and take the Englishman’s athleticism out of the equation. In practice, I’m not convinced; Todorovic went 0-for-4 on takedowns against a notoriously poor grappler in Wright, and though Duncan did have some early issues with Melan’s takedowns, his power and dynamism ultimately won out.
I just don’t trust Todorovic to not get overwhelmed by Duncan’s offbeat offense before he can get some proper attrition going. Duncan clips him with a flying and/or spinning thingamajig late in the first.
Prediction: Duncan via first round technical knockout
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Edwards, Usman Share UFC 286 Poster


125 lbs.: Jake Hadley vs. Malcolm Gordon

Despite missing weight on Contender Series and reportedly butting heads with the staff, Jake Hadley’s (9-1) rear-naked choke finish of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran, Mitch Raposo, earned him a UFC contract. Though he fell to the resurgent Allan Nascimento in his Octagon debut, he returned to the win column six months later by choking out Carlos Candelario.
His pro finishes are split 5/2 between submissions and knockouts.
Malcolm Gordon (14-6) rebounded from two straight Octagon defeats with sizable upsets of Francisco Figueiredo and Denys Bondar. Then came top prospect, Muhammad Mokaev, who handed Gordon his second career submission defeat.
“X” will enjoy a one-inch reach advantage.
This one comes down to whether Hadley can stay composed. He figures to have the edge in boxing and offensive wrestling, but Gordon has more than proven his ability to turn a single slip-up into disaster. If Hadley leaves himself open to a reactive takedown or gets lazy from the top, he’s in for a rough night.
After that learning experience against Nascimento, I’m willing to give “White Kong” the benefit of the doubt. So long as he doesn’t get overeager, he should outwork Gordon on the feet for a wide decision.
Prediction: Hadley via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina

After more than half a decade in the Octagon, a 4-1 run capped by a split decision over Andrea Lee put Joanne Wood (15-8) on the brink of a title shot. She’s just 1-4 since, including consecutive rear naked choke losses in her last two bouts.
Five of her six stoppage wins have come by (T)KO.
Luana Carolina (8-3), an early Contender Series graduate, began her UFC tenure with a unanimous decision over Priscila Cachoeira. Her Octagon record has since evened out at 3-2, wins over Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez sandwiched between stoppage losses to Ariane Lipski and Molly McCann.
She’ll enjoy a 3.5-inch reach advantage.
The question here is whether Wood is done as a top Flyweight or as a fighter in general. As ugly as her recent record is, none of those losses came against poor opposition; the worst was that questionable decision over Lauren Murphy, whom I’d still rate well above Carolina.
Considering Carolina’s performance against Molly McCann, I’d say Wood still has enough left in the tank to get past her. “Meatball’s” consistent ability to both land on Carolina and hit takedowns despite the height and reach difference suggests that the much more technically adept Wood can do the same. If “Jojo” can still pull the trigger, she should cruise to victory with combination striking and top control.
Prediction: Wood via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Jai Herbert vs. Ludovit Klein

Jai Herbert (12-4) finished his Cage Warriors tenure with four straight knockout wins, only to suffer stoppage losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano in his first two Octagon bouts. He’s since rebounded with a 2-1 run, a comeback knockout loss to Ilia Topuria sandwiched between losses to Khama Worthy and Kyle Nelson.
He’s knocked out nine pro opponents and submitted one other.
Though he started his UFC run strong with a 76-second knockout of Shane Young, consecutive losses to Mike Trizano and Nate Landwehr sent Ludovit Klein (19-4) from Featherweight to Lightweight. The move has paid dividends, as he went on to win decisions over Devonte Smith and Mason Jones.
“Mr. Highlight” gives up six inches of height and five inches of reach to Herbert.
Klein’s last two Featherweight bouts revealed a distinct allergy to pressure, especially if wrestling is involved. Luckily for him, that shouldn’t be an issue here. He’s up against another long-range striking specialist, and with free rein to use his fearsome kicks, Herbert’s in for a rough time against a technically superior kickboxer.
Though Herbert’s height and reach do pose a threat, he failed to consistently keep shorter men in Trinaldo and Topuria off of him, while Klein is no stranger to being the smaller fighter. Add that to Herbert’s historical durability issues and you’ve got the ingredients for “Mr. Highlight” to live up to his name.
Prediction: Klein via first round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Juliana Miller vs. Veronica Hardy

A 2-1 pro start and impressive grappling résumé sent Juliana Miller (3-1) to TUF 30, where she beat Claire Guthrie and Kaytlin Neal to earn a spot on the Finale. There, she pounded out Brogan Walker to finish off Team Nunes and claim tournament victory.
Two of her three finishes have come in the first round.
Veronica Hardy (6-4-1) finally broke out of a three-fight UFC skid by tapping Polyana Viana with a 69-second bonus-winning armbar of Polyana Viana. She then moved up to 135 to fight Bea Malecki, turning in an admirable effort but ultimately falling to her much larger foe.
She fights for the first time in almost exactly three years.
Unless Hardy has fundamentally reinvented herself as a fighter during her time away, she’s short on options. She’s long struggled with determined takedown artists and lacks the power to decisively punish Miller’s awkward standup. Miller’s jiu-jitsu pedigree means Hardy can’t rely on a repeat of the Viana reversal.
While Miller’s unlikely to make a dent in the increasingly competitive Flyweight elite due to her striking issues, she’s got more than enough tools in her arsenal to overwhelm the historically underwhelming Hardy. Long stretches of top control secure her second UFC victory.
Prediction: Miller via unanimous decision


145 lbs.: Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Jack Shore (16-1) followed his successful Cage Warriors run with five consecutive Octagon victories. This set up a pivotal clash with Ricky Simon, who clubbed-and-subbed the Welshman to send him from 135 to 145 pounds.
“Tank” stands two inches shorter than Makwan Amirkhani (17-8) and gives up one inch of reach.
“Mr. Finland” battled his way to a 6-2 UFC start highlighted by post-fight bonuses for his finishes of Andy Ogle and Chris Fishgold. He’s since dropped four of five, most recently suffering a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to Jonathan Pearce in London.
All but one of his 13 professional finishes have come via submission.
Shore has everything he needs to take Amirkhani apart: strong takedown defense, a quality engine, and good hands. All signs point to a repeat of Amirkhani’s loss to Pearce, which saw Amirkhani find early success with his powerful wrestling before crumbling under “JSP’s” pace.
The extra 10 pounds are definitely a concern, especially against someone with such a physical style, but Shore’s grappling fundamentals are stout enough to weather Amirkhani’s early onslaught until “Mr. Finland’s” legendarily poor gas tank gives out. Sprawl-and-brawl turns into sprawl-and-maul as Shore survives a rough start to batter Amirkhani into submission.
Prediction: Shore via third round technical knockout
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155 lbs.: Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales

Chris Duncan’s (9-1) first Contender Series bid ended in disaster thanks to a vicious left hook from Viacheslav Borshchev. His second a year later looked similarly doomed, but “The Problem” came back to knock Charlie Campbell stiff and walk away with a UFC contract.
Seven of his eight professional stoppage wins came via knockout.
Omar Morales (11-3) went from upsetting Harvey Park on Contender Series to defeating Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez in his first two Octagon appearances. The momentum wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a 1-3 skid.
“Venezuelan Fighter” steps in for Michal Figlak on little more than one month’s notice.
The hits Duncan absorbed against Borshchev and Campbell weren’t flukes; he has some serious defensive liabilities and is just slow in general. Odds are he won’t make too dramatic a rise through the ranks before hitting his ceiling, but he should at least be a bit too much for Morales. “Venezuelan Fighter,” who never quite managed to live up to the potential he showed against Park, figures to give Duncan the sort of gritty kickboxing match where “The Problem’s” power and offensive craft shine.
Duncan’s shown enough vulnerability that a dialed-in Morales has a shot at out-techniquing him for a decision win. More likely, though, Duncan’s aggression and output carry him to either a decision or a late stoppage if Morales’ chin is still feeling the effects of that Uros Medic fight.
Prediction: Duncan via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Sam Patterson vs. Yanal Ashmoz

An almost-perfect (5-0-1) run in Brave CF earned Patterson a Contender Series berth in 2022. Though he suffered an early knockdown against Vinicius Cenci, a second round-rear naked choke earned “The Future” both a win and a UFC contract.
His nine professional finishes include five submissions, three of which came via guillotine.
Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) racked up three quick wins in 2017 before spending nearly four years on the sidelines. He shook off the rust with a pair of (T)KO finishes in 2021, then defeated Dennis Hughes in an unsuccessful bid to join the 2022 PFL season.
He is the shorter man by five inches.
This seems like a case where Ashmoz has the right style to give Patterson issues, but can’t execute it well enough to get the win. Though not quite Stefan Struvian in his inability to maximize his height and reach, Patterson regularly allows shorter men to find striking and wrestling success against him, which plays into Ashmoz’s hands. Ashmoz just isn’t technical enough with his brawling or sufficiently overpowering with his takedowns to make the most of those opportunities, especially when Patterson has the gas tank to consistently get out of tight spots and deliver consistent offense..
Even if Ashmoz can get inside of Patterson’s rangy kickboxing, he has Patterson’s counters to deal with on the feet and his guillotine to deal with on the mat. Odds are that Ashmoz gets a little too eager to drag Patterson to the ground and exposes his neck to those Slenderman arms.
Prediction: Patterson by second-round submission
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125 lbs.: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho

After building up hype with a 23-0 amateur career and strong professional start, Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) announced his arrival at the world stage with a 58-second submission of Cody Durden in his UFC debut. His perfect record remained intact courtesy of wins over Charles Johnson and Malcolm Gordon, the latter of which netted “The Punisher” his fourth professional submission win.
He’ll enjoy a 1.5-inch reach advantage.
Jafel Filho entered the Contender Series on the heels of four straight stoppage wins, one of them over future Contender Series graduate, Vinicius Salvador. “Pastor” ultimately made it five with a left hook knockout of Roybert Echeverria that snapped the latter’s unbeaten record and punched Filho’s ticket to UFC.
All of his wins save his second have come inside the distance, eight of them via submission.
No matter what they bring to the table in terms of offense, Mokaev’s opponents all face one simple question: can they stop Mokaev from controlling them for 15 minutes? For Filho, the answer is no; he’s a potent submission artist and chain wrestler with sneaky power in his hands, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he can avoid the grinding fate that befell Johnson and Gordon.
Though Filho can finish out of nowhere, Mokaev’s disinclination to take unnecessary risks means that “Pastor’s” opportunities to find his neck or chin will be few and far between. As much as I’d like to see Mokaev make the effort to put on a dominant performance, odds are he neutralizes Filho against the fence for another comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Mokaev via unanimous decision

[GunShard]

[JC2008]

Here's some actual real event discussion since this board is not what it was years ago. What happened?

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/u...sman-3.4282543

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'd love to see Leon win again but he will likely have to flatline Usman again to get his hand raised.

Usman seems like a strong play here coming off a loss with revenge on his mind.

[Allure]

Here's some actual real event discussion since this board is not what it was years ago. What happened?

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/u...sman-3.4282543

Thanks. Didn't know Sherdog has a forum. No need to waste any time here anymore, this place is dead.

[JC2008]

Thanks. Didn't know Sherdog has a forum. No need to waste any time here anymore, this place is dead.

No problem! Literally every event there is 10+ pages of discussion it seems and another thread where everyone posts their best bets which is pretty cool. Jibbby. Come on over!

[LBfightlife]

Wow it really did die down over here, hope all are well.

Thinking Dolidze, he looked amazing last few times out, impressed by his hands and ground game

[JC2008]

Wow it really did die down over here, hope all are well.

Thinking Dolidze, he looked amazing last few times out, impressed by his hands and ground game

Yeah man! I'm not gonna lie, I miss the days when it was Jibbby vs. Joshknows46; Hugo posting every week, etc. but yeah. The true OG's should come over to Sherdog if you want some real analysis on the fights instead of this shell of what used to be.

The odds on a Doldize decision are really good. That is one fight I may just stay away and enjoy. The start time's also been bumped up a half hour as well.

[JIBBBY]

Going with Usman by decision. Embrace the wrestling grind. Don't think Leon will get lucky again and land that head kick.

[JC2008]

Going with Usman by decision. Embrace the wrestling grind. Don't think Leon will get lucky again and land that head kick.

Are you doing anything with the early action?

[JIBBBY]

Yeah man! I'm not gonna lie, I miss the days when it was Jibbby vs. Joshknows46; Hugo posting every week, etc. but yeah. The true OG's should come over to Sherdog if you want some real analysis on the fights instead of this shell of what used to be.




The odds on a Doldize decision are really good. That is one fight I may just stay away and enjoy. The start time's also been bumped up a half hour as well.

Many moons ago! Lol.. I remember the back and forth. Fun times on SBR.

[JC2008]

Many moons ago! Lol.. I remember the back and forth. Fun times on SBR.

Yes! Each event page was pages long and the forum activity was extremely high.

[JIBBBY]

Early start time GL everyone!

[UncleChael]

“Look at me now. P4P headshot dead. That’s it”. #AndStill

[JC2008]

Anyways, for some actual pbp:

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/u...4283414/page-4

[JIBBBY]

Body shot kill. That was weak, you miss weight then you get dropped like that. Send that brother to Bellator. He's not worthy.

[JIBBBY]

Dusko was fighting scared from the start. That's what you get. I think he faked the knee injury to get out.

Another Bellator send. GTFO!

[JIBBBY]

Will post to myself I have no pride!

Bisping cracking me up with the stand up and sit down then stand up again and raise the hands to get the cheers from the English crowd everytime.. LOL!

[UncleChael]

You always bet on the hometown dog.

[JIBBBY]

You always bet on the hometown dog.

Unc where you been all these years? Glad to see still around and breathing!

[JC2008]

Jibbby why don't you post your wagers anymore since there's only 7 people here now? Santos is LIVE in this next fight. +140.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby why don't you post your wagers anymore since there's only 7 people here now? Santos is LIVE in this next fight. +140.

No one asks so why do it? I got no gambling challengers anymore on SBR to give me shit like Joshknows to get my competitive juices flowing.

I share once in a while here and there.

[mackave]

joshknows, holy shit haven’t heard that name in forever

[JIBBBY]

I thought Santos won that decision. Home town judging strikes again. Robbery!

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby why don't you post your wagers anymore since there's only 7 people here now? Santos is LIVE in this next fight. +140.

I had Santos as well. Bad gig there.

[JIBBBY]

You always bet on the hometown dog.

May be onto something here!

[JC2008]

Yeah that was a greasy decision and Santos ML was -1117 between rounds 2 and 3; keep an eye on UK fighters if they're down. Might be able to get more value still.

[JIBBBY]

Black out arena.. Only in England! LOL!

Get the lighters flicking!

[JC2008]

How do you guys feel about the over 1.5 in the Shore/Amirkhani fight? Obviously a minor sprinkle on Makwan sub r1 +1600. Perhaps a LIVE bet on Shore near the end/end of round 1 between the start of round 2? The over 1.5 in this Mokaev/Filho fight was almost free money. Mokaev decision +170 looking crispy boys. And Filho's ML as a hedge explains itself but dude probably needs a flash sub to win. (now that I said this, Mokaev will prob sub his ass in round 3) lol.

[JIBBBY]

How do you guys feel about the over 1.5 in the Shore/Amirkhani fight? Obviously a minor sprinkle on Makwan sub r1 +1600. Perhaps a LIVE bet on Shore near the end/end of round 1 between the start of round 2?

IDK? Shore is hard to bet against even on the over round bets especially in England. I expect Shore to win this fight convincingly.

[Headsterx]

Mojave/Filho going the distance. So disappointing.

[Headsterx]

No way!!! That was so close!

[Headsterx]

Mo won’t walk for days.

[JIBBBY]

Good luck with that knee going forward. Win may have cost him months in rehab.