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I'm hoping its a winner! lol.
UFC 118 Recap:
Ken Florian (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units
Andre Winner (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Nick Osipzak (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Miranda (+180) 2 units to win 3.6 units & (+170) 0.75 units to win 1.275 units
Mike Pierce/Penn-Edgar starts round 2/Diaz-Davis starts round 2 - three fight parlay (+105) 2.5 units to win 2.625 units
Still looking at a few prop bets, but this is it for now. I also may add onto a couple of my plays depending on the line movement.
Also adding one play for Bellator. It will most likely be the only one as I want to continue to keep the small shows light because of their variance.
Bellator 26:
Alexey Oleinik (-126) 1.89 units to win 1.5 units
Gl this week to everyone!Comment -
Like your picks here... especially the big play on Florian. Where'd you get him at -105? That's a great line for him. A LOT of people on Miranda in this fight. I haven't seen him. Is it just a play banking on his ability to stay standing and exploit Maia's horrendous boxing?Comment -
I posted the Florian play early in May in this thread when it opened. Happy to beat the movement there!
As for Miranda, I believe he has a lot of attributes that suit him well in this fight. First, he's a large guy - he's 6-4 vs. Maia's 6'0 and he will also have a 3 inch reach advantage. He's extremely athletic, very strong and has great footwork and speed. He has great Muay Thai and solid power - he rocked Harris in their fight and executed some nasty leg kicks. This is going to make it very difficult for Maia to get inside and lock up for any attempt at a takedown. If he does happen to get inside, he's going to have to deal with a guy who is the stronger of the two and who has a great clinch game (see the Loiseau fight). In order to get Miranda into his world, he's going to have to go into Miranda's world and I don't think thats a position that suits him well. Add to this the fact that Miranda is a great grappler - he's a grappler's quest champ, South American wrestling champ, and has won BJJ championships. He's no slouch on the ground. I can't find the video but his fight vs. Ricky Story from a while back is a good example. He was able to outwrestle and outgrapple Story and that says something. Maia obviously has outstanding submissions but he has to get his opponent on the ground to do that. I see ppl referencing the fact that Maia got a trip TD on Sonnen and disposed of him fairly easily once he got him to the ground. Lets get something straight - 8 of Sonnen's 11 losses are by submission. The guy doesnt have any submission defence other than powering out of attempts. He may be a better wrestler than Miranda but he definitely is not better on the ground. Maia really has one way to win this fight - find a way to get it to the ground and pull off a sub. I think the only real way for him to accomplish this is to pull guard and I expect to see him try that on a few occasions in this fight which in turn puts him in danger of falling victim to Miranda's muay thai. On the other hand Miranda has multiple ways to win the fight. As long as he stays patient and doesnt rush things and put himself in bad positions he should win this fight.Comment -
Interesting to note that 5dimes put out round props on Toney/Couture for like 10 minutes and then took them down. Couture in Round 1 was +100, Couture in Round 2 was +225. Im wondering if they got hit hard on one side and are making adjustments or if they arent even going to bother putting them back up. It will be interesting to see if they do put them back out how the lines will have changed on those 2 in particular.Comment -
Very interesting... I saw those odds and was strongly considering a play on Couture in Round 1 at +100.Comment -
Thanks for the write-up on Miranda... seems like some pretty good thinking. I'm still biggest on Florian and Diaz though. I'll have to see some film before making my final decisions on Osipczak and Miranda, though I'm leaning towards them.Comment -
wow i woulda loved to see randy in round1 at +200Comment -
wow kenny at -105 is awesome tooComment -
excellent forum....several things i noticed in my viewing of a few miranda bouts...he`s more of a "close range" striker...doesn`t use the height(which i don`t think is a legit 6'4")....which is helpful to maia(he has to get his hands on miranda to do business)....
also,story`s best weight is 170...
excellent info...enjoy reading the forum...g.l. to all...Comment -
Welcome to the forum rocky!
I agree with both of your points - as I stated miranda's world is heavily based in the clinch, which maia will have to deal with in order to get inside which I believe is a dangerous proposition for him. I also think we will see more of miranda's jab in this fight as well as leg kicks. I'm sure gameplanning was discussed while training with Anderson for the sonnen fight. As for Story, he is definitely more suited for 170, but I still think outgrappling him at 185 says something about Mirandas game. We will see come Saturday!Comment -
just from that one post I can tell rocky is legit
..you looking at any plays for saturday?
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thanks for the kind words...small player...i do it for the enjoyment....
of course,i believe that couture will have to completely forget to engage his brain to blow this gift dana is giving him....he`s uber parlay material,imo.....as was marcos maidana(boxing in argentina) before his odds went completely off the charts...
if he stands with toney for more than a few nano-seconds,then they should make couture "valedictorian of the asshole school"....i just don`t believe randy`s that stupid(although he didn`t show a great fight i.q. vs liddell in parts II & III)...
i have some leans,but,there are an awful lot of hometown fighters fighting on this card...always makes me queasy going against hometown fighters in fights that may go to the cards...
osipczak catches my eye...if you go back and check the rbr`s with both osipczak and soto vs riddle,osipczak seemed to be the superior fighter....he was taken down but he reversed several times and did damage with his striking...riddle appears to be a superior version of soto(grappling-wise..maybe soto has better jits)...and osip had the benefit of being "stood up" from bottom position pretty quickly by the judges at home...
of course that was in britain...this is in soto`s hometown...
tricky business picking these fights...Last edited by rocky mattioli; 08-26-10, 11:46 AM.Comment -
Soto's from New Jersey, no? Florian and Lauzon are the only fighters who are actually from Massachusetts I believe. Osipczak should get the win, he beat Story IMO so that combined with a win over Riddle in theory makes this a comfortable win over Soto...but we all know its not always tht simple unfortunately!
Welcome to the forum anyway bro!Comment -
Thanks man! It's full of ups and downs but thats what makes it exciting
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That's my only worry for Nick in this fight. In his fights vs. both Riddle and Story he made little attempt to try and get the fight back to his feet. He seemed more than comfortable staying on his back, working for subs and looking for sweeps. He is obviously confident in guard, but that can get you in trouble with the judges. That's my biggest concern for this fight - him being active from his back, working constantly and yet the judges automatically go with the guy who has top position. However for me, I don't think Soto is at the same level as Riddle or Story in terms of wrestling. He isn't a big hulking wrestler for the division and he isn't overpowering. He's more of a grinder and I think Nick will be able to handle the grappling much better against Soto in comparison to the other two. As well, Soto tends to gas late in fights. He showed this in his fight with Riddle as well as against Craig Kaufmann. Nick's conditioning is excellent and he made Riddle pay once Riddle blew his load going into the 3rd round.
Well 5Dimes finally put the lines back out. First I saw it they dipped Couture in round 1 to -150. It sits at -175 now. Im not super excited about that prop at that price. +100 was much more enticing. Couture in the second round is +465 which rubs me the right way, but I dont want to force anything. Going to think about it some more and probably wait till after the weigh-ins to decide if I want to throw a feeler out on it.Comment -
Just going to add a hedge of sorts in case the night goes very wrong and both Florian and Miranda lose lol.
UFC 118:
Maia by sub/Maynard by decision/Couture inside the distance/Mike Pierce 4-fight parlay 0.5 units to win 5.9 units.Comment -
Going to take a little of what I won from last night and try to hit some longshot props that I think have some value.
Pierce quickest TKO (+1100) 0.25 units to win 2.75 units
lauzon quickest sub (+1600) .25 units to win 4 units
I normally don't mess with these types of props cuz it's almost wasting units, but I think couture has driven up the value In the other ppl.Comment -
good point, I waited too long to play Osip so I'm probably going to play the quickest tko prop with him, I see Nick making him pay for those sloppy telegraphed takedown attempts he was using in those two videos you showed me, guy showed zero confidence in his stand-up.
looked like he was just repeatedly lunging in with his right while simultaneously shooting in for a takedownLast edited by illmatick; 08-27-10, 11:12 AM.Comment -
I like the lauzon quickest sub prop. I'm going to get that now. Couture definitely has something to do with it.Comment -
I've got the same hedge on my list, but without the Maynard bit so it doesn't pay as handsomely... and the only way I'll play Pierce is in a parlay, or if I can get Pierce by decision -- have done a bit of homework on that one and plan to do a small write up if time permits.Comment -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eccocide
Just going to add a hedge of sorts in case the night goes very wrong and both Florian and Miranda lose lol.
UFC 118:
Maia by sub/Maynard by decision/Couture inside the distance/Mike Pierce 4-fight parlay 0.5 units to win 5.9 units.
Maia by sub/Maynard by decision/Couture inside the distance/Mike Pierce 4-fight parlay 0.5 units to win 5.9 units.
that`s excellent work...just using the maia/couture leg of the par gets you better than a 2-1 return at 5 dimes....
thanks for posting...Comment -
Ecco, will 5dimes or the book you use allow you to put lauzon by quickest sub into parlays.Comment -
Thanks. That sucks were not allowed to use any quickest ko/tko or sub in any type of parlay.Comment -
This could be the bitterness of having Mo lose last weekend AND Lashley, but does anyone think there's even the SLIGHTEST chance Toney upsets here?Comment -
Thanks man. I'm pretty confident that Maia will have to sub Miranda to win. I can't see him taking a decision on the scorecards if it goes that far. With Maynard, its the opposite. I find it very hard to believe he can finish Kenny. So if my 2 larger bets lose, I'm pretty confident in this hedge hitting and recouping most of both bets combined.
ED already responded but ya, they allow parlays all all props except for quickest sub/tko and FOTN.
There is always a chance but I think its very unlikely. Lashley was ridiculously overpriced for a guy who is totally unproven, one dimensional and had only fought cans. King Mo didn't stick to the gameplan and got punished for it. Couture is a very smart fighter, knows exactly what he needs to do and knows exactly what he needs to avoid. Toney has no MMA experience and has the cliche punchers chance. But as I said, I wouldnt put my bankroll on Couture. Its a fight and anything can happen.Comment
