How much do you know bout Sung Jang...how confident are u he'll win?
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His nickname is the Korean Zombie, thats I all needed to bet on him. But in all seriousness I think he has most of the advantages in this matchup. I've seen all of his Sengoku and Deep fights and he is really impressive for a 23 year old. His only loss was against Kanehara and I personally think he won that fight. He will have a solid advantage on the ground in this fight. He has the better takedowns and submissions. The mian advantage Garcia will have is his power and strength, but he tends to have a weak gas tank and i expect him to be mouth-wide-open after a furious first round pace. Jung is no slouch on the feet either. He's shown improvement and I think he can handle himself in this one. The longer this fight goes the better for him and I expect him to get a decision or late submission. I obviously liked him better at +146, but I'd still play him at EV or higher. Its a normal size bet for me, mostly due to the fact that its his first fight in the US and he's still a young kid so I'm not sure what his nerves will be like.Comment -
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keep up the great insight and work sirComment -
Thanks guys. I'm gunna try and do some writeups tonight or tomorrow if i have time.
Still debating if I want to do some sort of parlay with Aldo or not. Leaning to stay away from the fight and just enjoy it, but thinking along the lines of Aldo/Jorgenson/Mendes. Gotta think about it for a bit. Usually dont like the big fav parlays.Comment -
One more Add:
Aldo/Pettis/Mendes 3-fight parlay (-140) 2.5 units to win 1.75 units
WEC 48 Recap:
Donald Cerrone (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Jorgensen (-190) 3.8 units to win 2 units
Sung Jung (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Njokuani (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units
Aldo/Pettis/Mendes 3-fight parlay (-140) 2.5 units to win 1.75 unitsComment -
Not gunna have time for writeups today.
Flyer Hedge on the last parlay:
Faber wins by decision (+900) 0.25 units to win 2.25 units
Final Add:
Cerrone/Henderson Over 3.5 rounds (-106) 1.59 units to win 1.5 units
WEC 48 Recap:
Donald Cerrone (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Jorgensen (-190) 3.8 units to win 2 units
Sung Jung (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Njokuani (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units
Aldo/Pettis/Mendes 3-fight parlay (-140) 2.5 units to win 1.75 units
Cerrone/Henderson Over 3.5 rounds (-106) 1.59 units to win 1.5 units
*HEDGE* Faber wins by decision (+900) 0.25 units to win 2.25 unitsComment -
Unreal decision in the Jung fight...so pissed at that.
One last add....aldo line came down a bit.
Jorgenson/Aldo 2-fight parlay (-135) 2.025 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Njokuani epic fail! Im counting on Aldo now to save me!Comment -
Forgot with that last Jorgensen/Aldo parlay i added the same hedge i had before of 0.25 units on Faber by decision (+900) to win 2.25 units.Comment -
Need Aldo to salvage my night....not a pretty card for me lol.
Adding Aldo/Faber over 2.5 rounds (+120) 1.5 units to win 1.8 units......Comment -
WEC 43 Results:
+0.31 units
Last fight saved the night for me cashing the 2 parlays and the over 2.5 rounds. Still bitter about the Korean Zombie fight....don't understand how Garcia can be given 2 rounds. Oh well, on to the next card.Comment -
UFC 113:
Shogun Rua (+160) 2.5 units to win 4 units
Sam Stout (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Josh Koscheck by submission (+299) 2 units to win 5.98 units
also posted this before:
Josh Koscheck (-219) 3.28 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Also Adding:
Kimbo/Mitrione Over 1.5 rounds (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
I wouldn't be so sure about Kos finishing him by sub, if he does finish it will probably be by TKO on the ground after a ton of GNP late but this is a 3 round fight and Daley is very explosive and good at defending submissions. If you wanna see him on his back defending for long periods watch his fight with Shields. Granted, Shields doesn't have much power on his punches but he is a much better grappler than Kos and about the same size. Daley also has a very underrated and solid chin, Kos will probably try to grapple him too much and give up position in scrambles.
The thing is that Shields could control him really well and though he did get mount when Daley was able to scramble he had the bjj skills to hold on and reverse or sweep Daley if he was getting out or on top. If Kos stays in half gaurd and holds him down he can take this easy by wearing out Daley but I don't think he will. He'll either shoot right away or bang right away either way he won't finish Daley in early and will burn a lot of energy. I expect Daley to bide his time for his explosive combos but Kos can just take him down over and over. So for me its gotta be Kos losing a decision gassing in the first round and losing 2 and 3, or not gassing and taking the decision. Depends on how stupid he fights.
sorry for the long break down, I'm pretty excited for this fight though and Kos is a good look at that lineComment -
Made a mistake in what I posted in terms of units - its 1.5 on Koscheck by submission - I have him straight up to win 1.5 units. That way if he wins but not by sub I break even on the fight. Messed that up...So should be:
UFC 113:
Shogun Rua (+160) 2.5 units to win 4 units
Sam Stout (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Josh Koscheck by submission (+299) 1.5 units to win 4.485 units
Josh Koscheck (-219) 3.28 units to win 1.5 units
Kimbo/Mitrione Over 1.5 rounds (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
Hey Westerner, thanks for your thoughts. I'll get more into why I like that prop in my writeups, but I'm not sure what you liked from Daley in the Shields fight in terms of his ground/guard. He was easily taken down by Shields, even when Shields was gassed in the 2nd. Once he was on the ground, Shields was able to pass guard to side control, then to mount almost at will. From there Shields did what he pretty much has shown over his last few fights and was content with pitter patter GNP, and going for an armbar every once in a while. It was the only sub he tried in that match and he eventually got it even though Daley had to know it was coming since Shields kept telegraphing it. Daley had no hip movement, didnt try to buck and the only reason he didnt give up his back is because Shields has no power from the top. I think you will see him give up the back much more easily agaisnt Koscheck's GNP and I think there's a solid chance for Kos to set in a RNC at these odds. I just like the value in the play. I will agree, Kos is very unpredictable when it comes to his strategy - if he tries to stand and bang it might be a short night for him. He knows he's close to a title shot and I think he will fight smart and use his wrestling to get this down to the mat quickly.
As for the Kimbo/Mitrione prop bet, its on 5dimes. Thats where all of my prop bets are from.Comment -
its also good KOS backed off his statements earlier about going toe to toe with semtex, and now says he is looking to finish with a RNC. After I read that I now feel a lot better about backing him.
kos :
"So if you’re a betting man, you better go to Vegas right now, and put money on Josh Koscheck because now that the guy has pissed me off, I can guarantee you that I’m gonna go in there and wrestle his ass down and rear naked choke him in round one. There you have it. I’ll probably beat him up a little bit before I choke him out, but in round one, he’s getting choked out. And that’s what he’s gonna have to sleep with over the next week – ‘How the hell am I gonna stop from getting taken down and put on my ass?’"Comment -
Well I think that Daley took Shields really lightly because of his lack of stand up and methodical style. He's a kickboxer so he won't really respect someone unless they can at least make him feel a bit threatened from a damage standpoint (he probably thinks grappling is for fags to an extent lol). BUT there are things he does have, which are an extremely strong upper body, explosiveness, good control of distance and film to watch of Alves beating Kos in a way he could also do. I don't know what kind of dog daley is or maybe he's even, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see him scramble up to his feet a lot like Alves did and in between punishing Kos with kicks and straight/left hook combos. The question is how disciplined Daley will be because he has does get a bit Manhoefish and wades in feet planted swinging wide, easy to takedown then. I look at his shit talking campaign with Kos as a indication of how seriously he's taking the fight though, and he comes from a good smart camp that should maximize his chance. I don't think that line is very generous to KosComment -
UFC 114:
Dong Hyun Kim (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
Dan Lauzon (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 unitsComment -
UFC 116:
Tuchscherer (+220) 1 unit to win 2.2 units
I need some ppl to go hammer down that Akiyama line so I can drop some units on Wanderlei!!!Comment -
UFC 118:
Ken Florian (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 unitsComment -
gl sir!!!! love the stout playComment -
stout looks solid, thinking about a stout by decision play at plus moneyComment -
lol yup, I hope it plays out this way. Kos needs to stay focused.Comment -
Stout is a personal favourite of mine. Been watching him for years here in Canada. I look for him to put on a impressive show tomorrow.
Terp - I guess I made the mistake of playing it early. Not sure why I thought the line would go the other way but I miscalculated there. Oh well!Comment -
Some bookkeeping before I start:
MMA YTD: +11.49 units
Its been a good year so far. Really, I have had 2 dreadful events which have brought down my profits– WEC 47 where I lost 2 parlays for 4 units and the last Strikeforce where I lost my parlay for 5 units with the Hendo loss. Anything outside of the UFC has been bad luck for me lol. Anyways, onto the writeups for UFC 113.
UFC 113:
Shogun Rua (+160) 2.5 units to win 4 units
Well I’m not quite sure what to type here as my feelings haven’t changed much since I did my write-up for Shogun in the first fight. All the last fight did was confirm what I already believed. I’m not going to get into too many specifics as I believe this fight has been analyzed to death but here are my general thoughts. In the first fight, Shogun implemented a beautiful gameplan to counter what Lyoto likes to do best. He took away his movement and base using kicks to the legs and body which took a massive toll on Lyoto, especially late in the fight. Because of this, Lyoto didn’t have the same burst or reactionary time that he relies on to dictate the fight. Will the fight go the same way? No, obviously not. Both guys will have different strategies based on what they learned from the first fight. However, the fundamentals for this fight still hold true IMO. Shogun has the more diverse standup of the two. He can mix in kicks, knees and punches with ease to keep Lyoto off balance and second-guessing his time of attack. I also look for Shogun to do more of what I expected of him in the first fight – work for the clinch and soften Machida up on the inside. As well, I expect him to mix in some takedowns as I believe Machida is going to be more tentative to defend against the kicks. I’m not saying that Machida has a bad ground game or clinch – what I am saying is that I believe Shogun has the edge in both areas. One of the most telling things from the first fight was that Lyoto wasn’t prepared to deal with someone who was as patient as Shogun. Machida was for the most part flat footed in his offense and he didn’t seem to be able to get his timing and range together. The major worry I have for Shogun is that he may get too aggressive because he will have the bad judges decision in the back of his mind. If he can remain calm and be patient in this fight, I think it’s his fight to lose.
Josh Koscheck (-219) 3.28 units to win 1.5 units and Josh Koscheck by Submission (+299) 1.5 units to win 4.485 units
I’ve already talked about this fight in the thread but I’ll kind of speak to what I have already stated. I honestly don’t think Koscheck will have any problem getting this fight to the ground if he wants to. PPL keep speaking of Daley’s improved TDD and ground game but I haven’t seen anything to show me he has changed. Take a look at his fights against Nick Thompson and Jake Shields and tell me where Daley has shown he can stuff a shot from a guy like Koscheck. He’s barely had to stop a takedown since he has entered the UFC as Hazelett decided he was going to have a standup war for some odd reason. His boxing is pretty solid but his only real weapon is his left hook, although he does have some decent leg kicks. Koscheck has obviously shown the knack for trying to prove his ego by standing with guys that he shouldn’t be standing with, but I think with a title shot on the line he will choose the smart gameplan and take Daley out of his comfort zone. Neither guy is known for their endurance, so this one could get sloppy in the late second and 3rd rounds if it gets that far. But if that’s the case, I’ll feel all the more comfortable to be on the side of the vastly superior wrestler who can fall back on his bread-and-butter anytime he wants. I pretty much see this fight going the same way as GSP/Hardy. Leading up to that fight we saw Hardy who is from Team Roughhouse (same camp as Daley) talk about how he had done so much to counter GSP’s wrestling, be able to get back to his feet, stuff the shots, etc, etc. How did that work out? Same deal here. Daley has solid boxing as does Hardy, but he doesn’t know what to do once on he’s put on his back. I look for Koscheck to get it down to the ground, work his vicious GnP and eventually get a RNC after Daley gives his back up. I’ve structured my bet is such a way that If Kos wins but doesn’t win by submission I break even. If he wins by submission as planne then it’s a nice payout. If he loses – well then it might be an ugly night for me lol. I just couldn’t pass up the value in him by submission at +299. It is already down to +208 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop a little more. After I broke it down by percentages of how Koscheck would win the fight, it was a no-brainer for me to go this route.
Sam Stout (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
I love this matchup stylistically for Stout. He has excellent Muay Thai with uncanny accuracy. His boxing has looked great in his last couple fights and he even showed in his last fight against Joe Lauzon that he has tremendously improved his TDD and his ability to get fights back to his feet. Stephens is heavily reliant on his power punching and throws everything he has into every strike. As he does this, he leaves himself very exposed to numerous counters and combos from a guy with Stouts ability. Stout has also shown that his chin is rock solid and he can take a punch - although I don’t think it’s a good idea to test his luck against Stephens’ bombs too often. Stephens has solid jiu-jitsu, but unfortunately for him, his takedowns and wrestling are lacking and I think Stout can brush them off fairly easily. If this turns out to be a war of attrition, I have no problem being on Stout’s side as I have never questioned the guy’s heart. He leaves everything he has in the cage and I expect him to do the same tomorrow night. I’m hesitant to believe that Stout will finish this fight, but I think he will put on a Muay-Thai clinic on his way to a decision victory.
Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione Over 1.5 rounds (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
The obvious general perception of this fight is that you have 2 brawlers who will want to slug it out, and the one who connects flush first is going to win in a toe-to-toe war in the first round. This might happen, but I’m leaning in another direction. I’ll start with Kimbo first. Even though he’s a converted “street fighter”, he’s never been one to come charging forward with reckless abandon. He has shown some patience in the cage and this was most evident in his last fight versus Houston Alexander. He stayed in the pocket, kept his defense tight and picked his spots. He also threw in a couple takedowns, but I don’t expect to see him do that at any sort of regularity. I also think his power is overrated. He hasn’t knocked anyone out cleanly since he started MMA, and guys have been able to take some solid shots from him. His punching technique isn’t necessarily designed for power as he punches rather flat footed or off the heel of his feet rather than being on the ball of his feet. As for Mitrione – I also think his power is overrated. He may have knocked Marcus Jones out in his last fight, but Marcus has horrible striking defense and his chin is extremely suspect. If you take a look at his fights on the show, especially the one against Scott Junk, you can see that he throws very lazy punches, although they still pack a punch due to his size. I think his strategy in this fight will be to keep the distance and use some of the leg kicks he has demonstrated in his recent fights to take away Kimbo’s chicken leg base. All in all, I see the first round as a feel out round with both fighters trying to employ their gameplans, neither of which will involve pushing a fast pace or looking to slug it out.
Adding…
Patrick Cote (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit
This is a little bit of a stretch for me as Cote has been out for such a long time that its hard to predict where his head will be after the way his last fight ended and what kind of ring rust he will experience. However, this line has moved so much that I couldn’t pass it up. This is more a line value/feeler play so I kept the size small. Belcher is legit and has looked very good recently. His kickboxing is top-notch and he has all of the tools to win this fight. But from what I have read and heard, Cote’s training camp has gone very well and he looks extremely confident. He’ll be fighting in his home town and he’ll have the entire crowd on his side which will give him the momentum before the fight even starts.
UFC 113 Recap:
Shogun Rua (+160) 2.5 units to win 4 units
Sam Stout (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Josh Koscheck by submission (+299) 1.5 units to win 4.485 units
Josh Koscheck (-219) 3.28 units to win 1.5 units
Kimbo/Mitrione Over 1.5 rounds (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
Patrick Cote (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit
GL tomorrow!Comment -
Like Stout and Cote. I'm not going to bet Cote because I get burned badly be people coming back ffom injuries and layoffs. Kos by submission is an awesome bet and I was debating a play on it. Machida for me !!Comment -
JUst to give you a little impetus to bet Cote I gotta say Belcher is a very slow starter and is notorious for not pushing the pace, also he's got a range advantage but he doesn't use it well, and Cote got a monster chin on him so he shouldn't get overwhelmed early. Also, Cote generally improves a lot fight to fight and his boxing is fairly sharp with heavy enough power to KO anyone in the division. Its a really good match up especially if he's a dog.Comment -
I think you're dead on but also what other people are missing is that right after the first time Shogun got Machida against the fence in the clinch and kneed his thighs, he immediately lost his zip on his movements. Time after time Shogun was able to get to that position and abuse Machida, but he could only do it because he is the stronger and more explosive fighter. When they traded leg kicks, or kicks for punches, even when they would both land clean Shogun landed harder. So I think it comes down to Shogun being a better athlete basically.
Also its worth mentioning that when you train in a position more you dont gas as bad when you're there in a fight, because breathing rhythms are different when you do different things. I think Machida spends a lot of time standing and doing reaction drills, movement drills etc. while Shogun has had more years doing more diverse training, so when he got Machida in the clinch and when he attempted takedowns you could see that even though Shogun would spend as much or more energy than Machida, Machida was more gassed after that than Shogun. Anyway, too much talking. I hope I don't make anyone nervous who bet Machida.
Let the chips fall where they may! we are less than 20 hours out!Comment -
Adding a small play on Grant. Cant pass him up at +350
TJ Grant (+350) 0.5 units to win 1.75 unitsComment
