I have this as a fairly even fight, is this as a value pick?
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I think its great value. I had Prangley at around EV to +110 so to get him at +160 is a gift IMO. Roger is so green. I don't think he has been tested and he shouldnt be a favourite against a well rounded and experienced opponent such as Prangley. He's never been in deep waters, or put in a bad position and I think he'll be facing some of that in this fight. Prangley has a decent sprawl and okay foot movement and I think its going to be hard for Roger to get inside to shoot in without getting tagged. His standup is mediocre and he keeps his head very straight and stiff. If this stays standing for any period of time, I think Roger is going to be in deep trouble. I'd go bigger but the big line shift is a little worrisome. I know Roger is carrying a lot of hype so thats part of it, but I really didnt expect this to move past the +135 mark.Comment -
Exactly my thoughts. It is nice to see that my eyes aren't playing tricks on me.
He looks very slow on his feet as well, he kind of paws out that jab and his other hand goes down to his waist. I'm just trying to gauge how much I should put on this play.Comment -
Gl tonight bud. I think we are on the right side here at this price.
Adding:
Diaz/Santos Starts Round 3 (-114) 1.71 units to win 1.5 units
Strikeforce - Diaz vs Cyborg Recap:
Diaz/Santos Starts Round 3 (-114) 1.71 units to win 1.5 units
Coy / Souza-Lawler doesnt go the distance 2-fight parlay (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units
Prangley (+160) 1.25 units to win 2 units
If Coy wins, I may arb my parlay with Souza by Decision. It will depend how I'm feeling at that point.Comment -
dang you...now you are making me rethink my bet lol, had 7 u on GracieComment -
lol stay with your gut. It's a close fight and this isnt a big bet for me. I just dont think Gracie deserves to be a -165 to -180 favourite being so unproven and having such holes in his game at this point in his career. Obviously, if he can get it to the ground he has a solid chance to finish it. It should be a good one.Comment -
I agree...I got him at -145, it shot up to -180 REAL fast...never would have bet him that high, but I liked my chances at -145. I dont like any underdogs on the card really..put a very small play on lawler at +175 and thats it besides the Gracie betComment -
do you think Diaz/ Cyborg will go past 2 1/2 rounds?? Bookmaker sucks for Strikeforce props...none whatsoever, this is all they have..its at +110 right now, thinking of putting a unit on it. Souza/ Lawler is +105 at going past 2 1/2 rnds.Comment -
yeah bookmaker releases props late and juiced, if at all. That line has pretty good value though. I've got 1u down on o2.5 as well.
Either one of these two could definitely finish the fight but in a 5 round WW fight +110 is definitely good value.Comment -
I feel better with just starting round 3 but I think those odds are about right for over 2.5. I think there is a good chance this one ends in the 3rd or 4th round. Reason being is that Santos has shown to slow down quite a bit after the first 2 rounds and once that happens, his technique starts to go out the window leaving himself open to more damage. It all depends on how aggressive Diaz gets and much he wants to leave himself open to the counter that Santos likes to make use of.Comment -
I picked it up early and got lawler @ +205Comment -
Not a good start. One last add:
Walker/Lawler-Souza starts round 2 1.5 units to win 1.72 unitsComment -
Strikeforce Results: -2.935 units
Well that was dissappointing. What horrible luck I had last night. First Coy was controlling the fight pretty easily for the first round and then gets caught in the second. Then Cyborg for whatever reason first shoots in for the TD, then rolls DIRECTLY into an armbar and gets subbed with 10secs left in the second round to lose my "starts round 3" bet haha. next!Comment -
I am interested on how you think Jones/Bader will play out. I think Jones is better in pretty much every aspect except for punching power. GL this weekend.Comment -
I can honestly say I'm not sure how its going to play out lol. All I know is that I dont believe Jones should be this big of a fav in this matchup. He has never faced adversity or a guy as strong or powerful as Bader. He won't be able to ragdoll him to the floor or control him like he has vs. his past opponents. I believe Bader is the better wrestler and Im curious to see how Jones will respond to being on his back. As well, I know everyone is in awe of Jones's striking style, but he has lots of holes defensively and leaves himself wide open for counters and power shots if it is timed right. You can only throw so many spinning back elbows before someone watches enough tape to get an idea of when its coming. Can Bader do that? I guess we will see. My biggest concern for Bader is the reach that he is going to have to fight through to get inside and the speed disadvantage. I'm hoping he utilizes some of the leg kicks that he has been showing in the last couple matchups as Jones has been susceptable to them and it will slow him down as the fight goes on. All in all, I agree that Jones should be the favourite, but I think this line is far too inflated. Having said that, I bet 2 units on Bader hoping that I would be able to arb off with Jones. The line is finally starting to move my way so even though I may not be able to make any money off of the arb, I will most likely buy back a little bit so that I dont have a full 2 units on Bader.Comment -
Adding:
Pierce/Ellenberger 2-fight Parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Cerrone-Kelly Over 1.5 rounds / Griffin-Franklin Starts Round 2 2-fight Paraly (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 126 Recap:
Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesn't go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units
Silva inside the distance (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-129) 2.58 units to win 2 units
Bader (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units
Banuelos (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
Kingsbury (-116) 1.74 units to win 1.5 units
Pierce/Ellenberger 2-fight Parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Cerrone-Kelly Over 1.5 rounds / Griffin-Franklin Starts Round 2 2-fight Paraly (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
That is it for main bets. I will prolly buy back on Bader for around 0.5 to 1 unit. I may also buy back a half unit on Banuelos and I may Hedge my Franklin/Griffin goes the distance with Franklin by KO. I'll decide on these over the next few days as I watch the lines.Comment -
I have 2 on Bader as well, but Jones is at -300 on my book, not a really great hedgeComment -
I tried not to add any flyers as I wanted to stay away from them for this card but I kept looking at these 3 and had to add them. Hopefully one will hit.
Griffin/Franklin FOTN (+325) 0.5 units to win 1.625 units
Cerrone/Kelly FOTN (+600) 0.3 units to win 1.8 units
Torres SOTN (+450) 0.3 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 126 Recap:
Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesn't go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units
Silva inside the distance (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-129) 2.58 units to win 2 units
Bader (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units & Jones (-275) 2.75 units to win 1 unit
Banuelos (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
Kingsbury (-116) 1.74 units to win 1.5 units
Pierce/Ellenberger 2-fight Parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Cerrone-Kelly Over 1.5 rounds / Griffin-Franklin Starts Round 2 2-fight Paraly (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
Flyers:
Griffin/Franklin FOTN (+325) 0.5 units to win 1.625 units
Cerrone/Kelly FOTN (+600) 0.3 units to win 1.8 units
Torres SOTN (+450) 0.3 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
my book is bookmaker...sucks.Comment -
I forgot to mention that I added more on Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3. The Torres by Sub was a mini hedge against most of what I added on it.
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 126 Recap:
Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesn't go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units
Silva inside the distance (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-129) 2.58 units to win 2 units &
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Bader (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units & Jones (-275) 2.75 units to win 1 unit
Banuelos (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
Kingsbury (-116) 1.74 units to win 1.5 units
Pierce/Ellenberger 2-fight Parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Cerrone-Kelly Over 1.5 rounds / Griffin-Franklin Starts Round 2 2-fight Paraly (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
Flyers:
Griffin/Franklin FOTN (+325) 0.5 units to win 1.625 units
Cerrone/Kelly FOTN (+600) 0.3 units to win 1.8 units
Torres SOTN (+450) 0.3 units to win 1.5 units
I should be done lol. GL tonight everyone!Comment -
Good luck Ecco! Lots of plays for you... Looking forward to it!Comment -
Yeah I really didnt want to play any but these stuck out so I decided to give it a go lol.
GL2U2 Shag. Could be a great night or a horrible one lol. Either way it should be an awesome card. But if Belfort wins by Decision, Torres wins by TKO in Round 1 or 2 and Griffin/Franklin ends in round 1, I may go jump into a snow bank haha.Comment -
gl tonight eccoComment -
those fight of the night ones are so tempting, hard to lay off. GLComment -
Haha well lets hope for all of us that these dont come to fruition. Come to think of it, It doesnt matter if Belfort wins by decision, if either of them do that would suck for me!
Tnx buddy, you too.
Definitely! Sometimes I wish I had the control to not even look at them so I'm not tempted lol.Comment
This is gonna be first time in a long time that we've had conflicting bets! 
