Eccocide's MMA Picks

**terpkeg** · 01-13-11, 10:02 PM

Nice lines you grabbed there. I got Franklin/Griffin dist too, may straddle with Franklin by KO/TKO.

What do you think about Phan/Garcia? I took Phan at -115 earlier, going back to the well for another beating betting against Garcia.

**Eccocide** · 01-13-11, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Nice lines you grabbed there. I got Franklin/Griffin dist too, may straddle with Franklin by KO/TKO. What do you think about Phan/Garcia? I took Phan at -115 earlier, going back to the well for another beating betting against Garcia.

Yup thats a good straddle that I was debating as well. It's IMO the only other possible outcome. However, whenever I do hedge it seems I just end up wasting units lol so it depends on how enticing the line is.

I wanna watch the first fight again before I say anything concrete, but I lean Phan. I do think Garcia is going to be more determined this time around. He only had a couple of weeks to prepare for the last fight and he has been training ever since for the rematch. He should be very focused and prepared this time around which makes it a little more tricky.

**Eccocide** · 01-19-11, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFN 23:

Dunham/Barry 2-fight parlay (+108) 2 units to win 2.16 units

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFN 23:

Wiman/Miller goes the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units

I don't see much value in this card. The undercard fights are priced pretty much where they should be and no props are standing out all that much to me. I was waiting to see if I could get Mitrione/Hague under 2.5 somewhere around -125 but the line has moved the other way and is currently at -155.

Adding:

Edwards/Brenneman 2-fight parlay (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Hominick inside the distance (+225) 0.5 units to win 1.125 units

UFN 23 Recap:

Dunham/Barry 2-fight parlay (+108) 2 units to win 2.16 units
Wiman/Miller goes the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Edwards/Brenneman 2-fight parlay (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Hominick inside the distance (+225) 0.5 units to win 1.125 units

**illmatick** · 01-19-11, 11:50 PM

Edwards/Brenneman 2-fight parlay (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units

love it. gl this weekend ecco.

**illmatick** · 01-19-11, 11:52 PM

...

**Eccocide** · 01-20-11, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Edwards/Brenneman 2-fight parlay (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units

love it. gl this weekend ecco.

Tnx Ill, GL2U2!

**Jordan23** · 01-20-11, 06:43 PM

Good luck on your picks. Hope you cash it!

**Eccocide** · 01-21-11, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Jordan23

Good luck on your picks. Hope you cash it!

Thx Jordan, hope you weekend goes well.

**Eccocide** · 01-22-11, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFN 23 Recap:

Dunham/Barry 2-fight parlay (+108) 2 units to win 2.16 units
Wiman/Miller goes the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Edwards/Brenneman 2-fight parlay (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Hominick inside the distance (+225) 0.5 units to win 1.125 units

One last play:

Mitrione-Hague Under 2.5 / Edwards / Guymon 3-fight parlay (+354) 0.4 units to win 1.416 units

**Jordan23** · 01-22-11, 10:38 AM

Good luck tonight man.

**Shagdogy** · 01-22-11, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

I don't see much value in this card.

I agree Ecco. Good job showing the restraint and sticking to a few you were liking. I need to take some lessons in self control! Good luck tonight!

**Eccocide** · 01-22-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I agree Ecco. Good job showing the restraint and sticking to a few you were liking. I need to take some lessons in self control! Good luck tonight!

Thx Shaggy, GL as well. Yeah this is a small card for me. 126 is prolly going to be the opposite as I already have a lot of plays running through my head for that one and only half the odds for the card have been released

.

**Eccocide** · 01-23-11, 10:21 AM

Well I was on my way to a great night and then Dunham got rocked early and couldn't recover. I knew it was over once Guillard was able to get back to his feet on the TD. Dunham still looked visibly shaken. Only regret is not betting Mitrione/Hague Under 2.5 as I loved that play for the past 2 weeks but didnt want to lay the juice. Instead I put it in a longshot parlay and it lost lol. Oh and I shoulda put more on Hominick inside the distance. I knew he'd stomp Roop b/c of Roops horrible defence but the fact that they are friends held me back from going bigger. Anyways, a positive night is a positive night.

UFN 22 Results: +1.725 units

**Poppa Catfish** · 01-23-11, 10:30 AM

Well done

**Jordan23** · 01-23-11, 11:28 AM

Good job on a positive night!

**Eccocide** · 01-23-11, 12:13 PM

Tnx guys. Looking forward to the next card.

**Vaughany** · 01-23-11, 12:40 PM

Good to bounce back from 125 positively!

I see above you mentioned that you'll be going much bigger on 126...what are your thoughts?! Liking Romero over Kingsbury? He's bound to be at least -200, and Pierce is probably going to be at least -275 against Robertson Id imagine so im not sure about value on this undercard. Im liking Taylor over Ruediger but I think he might not be too much value as he'll be favourite after Lauzon's destruction of Ruediger.

**lasker** · 01-23-11, 12:46 PM

Yet another positive night, Ecco. Well done

**Shagdogy** · 01-24-11, 11:35 AM

Nice work Ecco. Looking forward to the 126 plays.

You have any initial thoughts regarding silva/belfort? I see the line tightening up a little bit, and I'm considering Silva here at -265 or so, but that's kinda heavy. Wondering what you feel about this fight?

**Eccocide** · 01-25-11, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Good to bounce back from 125 positively!

I see above you mentioned that you'll be going much bigger on 126...what are your thoughts?! Liking Romero over Kingsbury? He's bound to be at least -200, and Pierce is probably going to be at least -275 against Robertson Id imagine so im not sure about value on this undercard. Im liking Taylor over Ruediger but I think he might not be too much value as he'll be favourite after Lauzon's destruction of Ruediger.

Well I already have 4 bets locked in that I've posted for the card and I have my eye on 2 more prop bets that are up right now. I'm just waiting to try and get a little more favourable number. I actually like Kingsbury if I can get him as a decent dog. His standup and reach will give Romero problems on the feet and Kingsbury's TDD has been getting better with his work at AKA. Romero also likes to telegraph his TD's and really doesn't do a whole lot to set them up with strikes. As well, Kinsbury will have the cardio advantage, especially once it goes past the halfway point. I'm liking Pierve but as you said his number will prolly be pretty high. He may be parlay material.

Originally posted by lasker

Yet another positive night, Ecco. Well done

Tnx Lask!

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Nice work Ecco. Looking forward to the 126 plays.

You have any initial thoughts regarding silva/belfort? I see the line tightening up a little bit, and I'm considering Silva here at -265 or so, but that's kinda heavy. Wondering what you feel about this fight?

I have it not going the distance in a parlay already. Other than that, I will prolly be making a play on Silva inside the distance. I just think this is a bad spot for Vitor. He's coming off of a 16 month layoff and he hasnt had a fight at 185lb in over 2 years. His timing is going to be off due to the ring rust and hand speed can only get you so far. Add to that the fact that he has recently switched camps and left Shawn Tompkins to go back to Xtreme Couture, and I just don't know how prepared and focused he will be. I also think Anderson is going to come out with something to prove after his last performance.

**Vaughany** · 01-26-11, 05:46 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Well I already have 4 bets locked in that I've posted for the card and I have my eye on 2 more prop bets that are up right now. I'm just waiting to try and get a little more favourable number. I actually like Kingsbury if I can get him as a decent dog. His standup and reach will give Romero problems on the feet and Kingsbury's TDD has been getting better with his work at AKA. Romero also likes to telegraph his TD's and really doesn't do a whole lot to set them up with strikes. As well, Kinsbury will have the cardio advantage, especially once it goes past the halfway point. I'm liking Pierve but as you said his number will prolly be pretty high. He may be parlay material.

Yeah I'd forgotten about the beat-down that Romero took from Petruzelli in the first round of their fight!

**Shagdogy** · 01-26-11, 10:50 AM

I would say that Petruzelli's striking is a little more crisp than Kingsbury's, but Kingsbury definitely has some power. I could see this fight turning kind of ugly half way through with both guys showing fatigue. But I agree with ecco that Romero will struggle with the takedowns, if not early, definitely once the fight goes a little deeper. Gotta lean Kingsbury here.

**Eccocide** · 01-26-11, 05:40 PM

Adding:

Silva inside the distance (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-129) 2.58 units to win 2 units

UFC 126 Recap (So Far):

Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesn't go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units
Silva inside the distance (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Torres/Banuelos Starts Round 3 (-129) 2.58 units to win 2 units
Bader (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units
Banuelos (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units

I was expecting to be able to buy back for the middle on Bader when I played this at the opener but it doesn't look like the line will move enough. I'd be more comfortable with around 1.25-1.5 units on him but I will still with it for now.

**Eccocide** · 01-26-11, 06:07 PM

Strikeforce - Diaz vs Cyborg:

Coy / Souza-Lawler doesnt go the distance 2-fight parlay (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units

**Eccocide** · 01-27-11, 11:17 PM

TFC 16:

Wagner (+440) 0.5 units to win 2.2 units

Just a very small value bet.

**Jordan23** · 01-27-11, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

TFC 16: Wagner (+440) 0.5 units to win 2.2 units Just a very small value bet.

We saw what happened the last time Timmeh weighed 654 pounds.

**Eccocide** · 01-28-11, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Jordan23

We saw what happened the last time Timmeh weighed 654 pounds.

lol exactly. And it looks like there's some others out there that are with me as the line is dropped to around +350.

**Jordan23** · 01-28-11, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

lol exactly. And it looks like there's some others out there that are with me as the line is dropped to around +350.

That's some serious line movement. Up to +330 now. Good luck tonight.

**urge2kill** · 01-28-11, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

lol exactly. And it looks like there's some others out there that are with me as the line is dropped to around +350.

I'm with you at +440. Only .33 units though. Kicking myself for not betting more.

**Eccocide** · 01-29-11, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

TFC 16:

Wagner (+440) 0.5 units to win 2.2 units

Just a very small value bet.

I knew it was over when Wagner came out to Wait and Bleed and Sylvia wouldn't look him into the eyes

.

TFC 16 Results: +2.2 units

Shoulda bet more!

**urge2kill** · 01-29-11, 12:20 AM

Cash that shit!

**xelance** · 01-29-11, 12:23 AM

great hit! I never would have bet Tim, but didnt take Abe as the dog

**Vaughany** · 01-29-11, 12:30 AM

**Eccocide** · 01-29-11, 12:31 AM

Tnx guys. Let's get em tomorrow!

**Eccocide** · 01-29-11, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Strikeforce - Diaz vs Cyborg:

Coy / Souza-Lawler doesnt go the distance 2-fight parlay (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units

Adding:

Prangley (+160) 1.25 units to win 2 units