So I finally spent a little bit of time capping this main event and while I was really hoping to find the reason to bet Stipe confidently as the dog, I just can't do it. I believe he will have the faster, much more fluid hands, but I can't unsee how many punches he takes by seemingly disrespecting the power of his opponents. His chin is solid. He was stung by Overeem but recovered quickly, but I just don't think taking punches period is a good idea in this fight, and I'm not sure how he will adjust. As much as Ngannou doesn't have pure speed in his hands, he's pretty accurate with his power (recently). I really HATE to say it but I'm picking Ngannou by round 1 KO, but there's a good chance I've just been too blind with regards to this matchup to ever really see it with an open mind. I just don't think Stipe gets all the way in or out as cleanly or quickly as he will need to. No bet for me here. I know I'm not seeing this fight clearly.
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Comment -
Hugo - I agree. But will he avoid the power early? I just can't decide. I don't feel like he has shown incredible or even very good striking defense throughout his run.
However, if he makes it out of round 1 I think the tide turns drastically and he gains more and more momentum until he stops Ngannou. I just can't tell myself confidently that Ngannou doesn't punch his fist through the back of his head first. Is there anything that makes you confident Stipe gets through the early portion? Or are you just playing the odds that all of his other advantages trump Ngannou's one way to win?Comment -
His striking defense isn't amazing or anything but Miocic has shown a great chin and the ability to stick and move against a murderer's row of knockout punchers. He was able to dominate fights against huge hitters like Nelson, Hunt, Overeem, and Dos Santos (rematch). Although Ngannou is definitely an athletic step up from those guys, I'm confident Miocic is the much more skilled fighter with a more well rounded skillset. I think he's got the advantages in combination punching, cardio, wrestling, GnP, toughness etc. Although it's totally possible that Ngannou stops Miocic early I'm "playing the odds" that his skill advantages will win the day here.Comment -
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou Picks:
Islam Makhachev Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Julio Arce Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Alexandre Pantoja Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Brandon Davis Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Thomas Almeida Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Gian Villante Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Shane Burgos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Daniel Cormier Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Stipe Miocic Round 1 TKO (Punches)Comment -
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Makhachev vs. Tibau
Tibau (+220) 1u
Tibau Scorecards = No Action (+240) .5u
Tibau Decision (+321) 1u
Fight #2: Barzola vs. Bessette (DEBUT)
Barzola -3.5 (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u
Fox Sports 1 Prelims:
Fight #3: Arce (DEBUT) vs. Ige (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #4: Pantoja vs. Ortiz
Pantoja Scorecards = No Action (-155) 3.1u to win 2u
Pantoja Submission (+480) 2u
Hedge:
Ortiz Round 3 (+2055) .25u
Fight #5: Razak Alhassan vs. Homasi
Razak Alhassan KO/TKO (-117) 4.08u to win 3.5u
Hedge:
Homasi KO/TKO (+420) 1u
Fight #6: Davis (DEBUT) vs. Bochniak
Davis (-123) 3.675u to win 3u
Davis ITD (+369) 1u
Hedge:
Bochniak KO/TKO (+1347) .5u
Main Card:
Fight #7: Almeida vs. Font
Almeida KO/TKO (+297) 1u
Hedge(s):
Font ITD (+235) 1u
Font Submission (+1225) .5u
Fight #8: Villante vs. Barroso
No Bet
Fight #9: Burgos vs. Kattar
Burgos -3.5 (+115) 1u
Hedge(s):
Kattar Decision (+246) 1u
Kattar KO/TKO (+1200) .5u
Fight #10: Cormier (C) vs. Oezdemir
Cormier KO/TKO (+364) 1u
Cormier Round 2 (+425) .75u
Cormier Unanimous Decision (+489) 1u
Cormier Round 3 (+625) .5u
Hedge(s):
Oezdemir Scorecards = No Action (+244) 1u
Oezdemir Round 1 (+707) 1u
Fight #11: Miocic (C) vs. Ngannou
Miocic (+145) 5u
Miocic Round 1 (+575) 1u
Miocic Unanimous Decision (+1050) 1u
Hedge:
Ngannou Decision (+1850) .5u
Straight Parlays:
Burgos/Cormier (+120) 1.5u
Makhachev+Tibau Over 2.5/Burgos (+152) 1u
Pantoja/Davis (+157) 1.5u
Pantoja/Razak Alhassan+Homasi Under 1.5/Davis (+433) .25u
Prop Parlays:
Burgos/Cormier -3.5 (+107) 1u
Pantoja/Cormier -3.5 (+126) 1u
Cormier ITD/Miocic (+307) .25u
Makhachev Decision/Barzola Decision/Arce (+457) .25u
Almeida/Villante/Burgos Decision (+730) .25u
Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+326) 1.25u
Almeida+Font FOTN (+575) 1u
Razak Alhassan Fastest KO/TKO (+600) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+793) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3800) .25u
Multi-Event Parlays:
NoneComment -
Got some
like a lot
plays Hugo. Gl toniteComment -
My card is finished as well.
Tailed Hugo on some Stipe plays
Stipe by DEC (+966) 0.25 units
Stipe R1 (+550) 1 unit
Stipe ML (+155) 2 units
Stipe STARTS Round 2 (-116) 2 units
Barzola -3.5 (-130) 1.5 units
Tibau by DEC (+292) 1 unit
Cormier -3.5 (-250) 2.5 units
Almeida ML (-115) 2 units
Kattar ML (+185) 1 unit
Davis ML (-125) 2 unitsComment -
UFC 220 Picks:
Makhachev, decision.
Barzola, decision.
Arce, TKO.
Ortiz, decision.
Alhassan, TKO.
Davis, decision.
Almeida, TKO.
Villante, decision.
Burgos, decision.
Cormier, sub.
* Ngannou, KO.
* I put Miocic in my ToutMaster picks because I'm so on the fence with this fight that I just took the extra points. I'll post my bets in a bit. Not much I really like tonight.Comment -
Mak keeing steamed. Tibau ML up to +255Comment -
First play for me is:
Makhachev & Barzola parlay. I think Makhachev will really start to pour it on Tibau after the first round. I think Barzola will be busier and be able to mix in some TD's on Bessette.Comment -
I'm on a lot of dogs today.
Kattar, Bochniak, Lima
Very small plays on Ortiz, Homasi, and Tibau
I took chalk on Villante and Ngannou
This event feels very odd. Not much consensus and I'm not seeing a lot of things other people are seeing (e.g., a lot of good cappers I know are confident about Davis).Comment -
I'm probably going to look at Bochniak live after R1. I still think Davis cardio isn't that good and Bochniak could lay and pray on himComment -
UFC 220 Bets:
Davis -140, 1.4u
Burgos -195, 1.95u (missed the good line, but taking the shot anyway)
Cormier/Villante parlay +121, .83u
Cormier/Arce parlay +121, .83u
Barzola/Makhachev parlay -109, 1.09u
That's it for now folks. Good luck.Comment -
Here we go good luck fellas.. I'm going with the first 3 dogs winning ITD.. Tibau got first up... Small stuff though.. $50 a pop on each...
$50.00 $420.50 Pending 1/20/18 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2005 Tibau wins inside distance +841* vs Not Tibau inside distance Comment -
Tibau is a freak.Comment -
Tibau by DEC would be a great start. I really think he wins the grappling/strength part of this fight and I'm not sold on Islam's striking at all even though I don't trust Tibau's chinComment -
andddd thats whyComment -
Wow Islam starched him. I did not see that one coming.Comment -
First KO victory for Islam since 2011. What a way to start the night.Comment -
Caught him cold and on the chin.. Oh well.. Tibau got dropped big time..Comment -
I guess I shouldn't have bought off my Mak bet and just trusted myself. Oh well. Barzola wins and it's all good. Let's turn on that pace, Enrique.Comment -
I think bessette wins this fightComment
