i wonder where Capt Chaos vanished to. The guy had great insight on fighters coming up in the ranks since he used to do color commentary for fights.
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imo by his body language hes coming in for a pay day... which really sucks because in his prime he was one of the best pure mma fighters out there skill wise.... he said in an interview hes been dabbling in coffee, gyms and other stuff and i think he just needs some pay cheques by the looks of it.... of course hell alway love fighting but i think deep down he knows his prime is over, so maybe he just wants some fan friendly fights and make some cash..... really hoping he wins because he was one of my fav fighters in mma for a long time... but to many question marks in this scrap for me to betComment -
Cyborg by violent stoppage..Comment -
4 figure Max bet for me on Vettori at -220Comment -
I hit 3u at -235 and thought it would climb. Was wrong. I think Vettori should take this fight over in rounds 2 and 3. Outside of very wide, sloppy, counters, Akhmedov has almost no striking game to speak of and Vettori just dealt with Miranda's vastly more varied and fluid striking game with surprisingly effective defense and a sharp, accurate left hand, so I think he will carry the striking exchanges other than a big single strike that lands maybe once a round for Akhmedov.
As far as grappling, Akhmedov has a very strong squeeze when he gets his hands locked on a double leg or body lock and is good at finishing those takedowns but he's not as good at securing them. Alhassan got to his feet multiple times on athleticism alone. Meanwhile Vettori dealt with the strength of ACJ very well and had enough scrambling chops to get back to his feet, or at least avoid being pinned flat on his back for streches of time, and he even had some decent top control time and GNP in the second round. I expect Akhmedov to land TDs early but have trouble securing them, and then later not have the gas to attempt or finish nearly as many in rounds 2 or 3.
Finally, Vettori is high volume, high pace, and makes his opponents work to keep up. Miranda actually did a good job of finding a second wind in the 3rd round of their fight but I don't think Akhmedov has a second wind. I think he will be gassed by the volume/pressure of Vettori by early to mid second round and Vettori will totally outwork him the rest of the way with high volume, more crisp strikes, and potentially by getting top position by reversing a tired, sloppy shot of Akhmedov.
Vettori is the young up and comer here and it looks to me like he only needs to avoid losing a decision to lay n pray, and he's a pretty good scrambler. So far this is my only play on this card.Comment -
Omari has a poor gas tank so I'm interested what he looks like at 185 but vettori is a legit prospect to me.Comment -
My fav fight on the card is Jury vs Glenn. Glenn is toughComment -
As of 12/27/17 at 5 Dimes
Holly Holm by TKO: +1305
Holly Holm by DEC: +425
Cyborg by TKO: -139
Cyborg by SUB: +1125
Let me first say, these odds are about as dumb as a book can make em'...I would be very surprised if the fight ended without falling under one of these props. Now as much as a Holly fan as I am lemmie say this, she is probably in my opinion going to get wrecked, I mean this is recipe for having her pretty lil' blonde head smeared all over the octagon.
Unless...she fights Holm like she fought Evinger, then this is a very decent possibility for Holly to upset.
Cyborg should hold most of the advantages here, she will definitely have the better wrestling and ground game, Holly has no clue about either, although she can be troublesome to get down, but for someone like Cyborg, I don't think it will be as hard for her as it has been for others. If she does go down, this is about as bad a spot as you can be in, for Holm.
Striking I look at from two aspects for these gals...
Brawling and power in close will be Cyborg's advantage, she can use the clinch, use her massive power, trips and throws, and not worry so much about footwork of Holm. If she uses pressure, and that patented Cyborg barrage o' death punches, Holly drops. Prolly just as bad a spot for Holly as being on the ground.
At distance though, footwork and punching accuracy and speed will be Holly's advantage...depending, on how Cyborg reacts to it. Holly has had a lot more fights that used her kick than just the Rousey and Correia fight, but those are probably the most well known and both illustrate the danger from them, not so much the power, as the manner in which they were thrown.
If you look at the kick thrown in the Rousey KO, she was pretty much a stiff punch away from getting KO'ed anyway, not that it wasn't a powerful, and quickly thrown kick, but without question, that fight could have been finished at that point by any number of ways.
Correia on the other hand demonstrated Holly's true lethality with kicks, this was a well setup, blinding fast, low fake that switched high. It actually seem to have less power than the Rousey kick if you look at it, but one thing about kicks, because of how they impact and the laws of physics being what they are, they don't have to be hard or thrown with brutal intensity. That said, Holly has always been good with kicks, especially mixing them into her striking combos.
So, if Cyborg pressures early which Rousey did, and cuts off the octagon which Rousey failed miserably to do, I see a TKO within' 2 rounds, and honestly more likely the first. Take Holly's distance, put her against the fence, beat the hell outta her, and melt her face. If the take down is open, even better, land it, and repeat the same as above, or just submit her since she has no clue what to do on the floor.
Unfortunately, Cyborgs last fight had pressure, but paced slow pressure, and hard, but calculated timed strikes, over three rounds. Impressive to watch yes, but a true recipe for disaster.
Cardio is literally the last thing I am worried about in this fight. Both of these women have it, both of them will last 5 rounds easy.
Holly got wailed on by Germaine de Randamie, who doesn't exactly throw soft punches, though not as powerful as Cyborg's either, but she still didn't get KO'ed. Holly on the other hand doesn't exactly throw the hardest punches either, so Cyborg's cro-magnon style head should wear any of those with ease, while she will probably need a barrage of hard hitting strikes for the finish, instead of a one-punch walk-away finish. Holly can take damage, question will be how much and how quick.
The longer this thing goes, the more Holly will adapt, and look to setup that finishing kick to the head, which could probably end Cyborg's night, or kill a caveman. Now Cyborg has never been knocked out, but she has lost to Jorina Baars in a 5 round Muai Thay fight, Lions 14, and in that loss she was dropped more than once, by kicks/knees to the head. Nearly four years since that fight, which means Cyborg is more skilled than ever, but the brain isn't a fine wine that gets better with age, when it comes to absorbing trauma.
I gotta say this fight should end early, within' 2 rounds for Cyborg, but if it starts round 3 and above I will be looking for a Holm win via, TKO/DEC.
My gut says though, Holly gets made into UFC paste by Cyborg, TKO.Comment -
Don't overthink this shit IMO......
Cyborg
Nurgamedov
Cavillo
Roundtree
Juicy but will flat collect
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Incredibly juicy, even by my standards and I bet a lot of favs. A few thoughts:
1) I wouldn't be too confident in Nurm. He fights at most once a year and this is his biggest test arguably ever.
2) I agree Rountree should win but think the line is about where it should be. I see more value on Vettori.
3) Love Calvillo but havent decided how much I like her in this matchup yet. Need to dig into that one. I recall feeling let down by her last contest.Comment -
It is hard to say. He's compiled a solid 7-2 stretch in the UFC but most of his wins are over bums (Gomi, De La Torre etc.) while he lost to both of the top 15 guys he's fought recently (Cerrone and Charles Oliveira). This should be a good litmus test to see where Jury's at since I think Glenn is not a bum but also not a top guy at FTW.Comment -
Thanks for this. I was going to post a breakdown but looks like you hit most of the major points.
The other things I have marked down:
Vettori is making significant improvements every fight out whereas Omari at this point looks like a finished product.
Vettori looks to have gained a good amount of mass in order to be a bigger MW. Compare his UFC debut where he looked kind of small to his last fight. And then look at recent pics where he looks about 200 lbs. This may be a double edged sword because his cardio may be affected, but it looks like Omari won't be able to bully Vettori due to the size disadvantage. So there's a good chance Vettori can outfight and not expend too much energy while shrugging off takedown attempts, especially later in the fight.Comment -
I think that fight comes down to Magny's approach. Many of his wins over his 10-1 streak from February 2014 to March 2016 came by simply weathering the early storm and outlasting guys who are known to fade (Garcia, Lim, Silva, and Lombard). That doesn't seem like a likely way to beat Condit, a fighter known for his high output and excellent cardio. Instead, I think Magny should take advantage of Condit's abysmal TDD by going to an offensive wrestling heavy gameplan like he did against somewhat similar style matchups in Means and Gastelum.
If I were Condit's coaches, I'd suggest that he focus on leg kicks as those were Magny's undoing in both the Larkin and Dos Anjos fights. Condit has a good offensive guard so if Magny gets TDs, he will have to watch for Triangles and Armbars from bottom. Although Condit has yet to secure a submission in the UFC, he had 13 submissions on the regional scene, including quite a few from Full Guard Bottom against decent competition.
Fight Goes the Distance (-115) does feel like a good bet here since I see Condit winning a close striking battle if it stays standing and Magny winning if he can get TDs and secure top position without getting caught in a bottom submission. I also like Magny Decision (+320) since I think that's his most likely path to victory here. Betting wise, I don't think it's a fight to go huge on because of questions about Condit's mindset and how Magny will approach the fight.Comment -
Yeah he was off for a long time. Generally, I don't put as much stock into layoffs as most cappers. I'd prefer to see a decline in a fighter with my own eyes rather than speculating about how they may have changed for better or worse after taking time off. The exception to this approach is when a fighter comes in against a fast starting power puncher after a layoff (especially after being KOed recently) because I think it takes some time to re-adjust to the pace and feel of fighting and that dangerous punchers can take advantage of this before the returning fighter has time to settle in. Examples of this include Rousey vs. Nunes and Machida vs. Brunson.Comment -
Have a bad feeling about Condit. I dont think he has championship plans. He came for the payday and that could result in a very shitty performance.Comment -
I don't think it looked bad at all. Definitely not compared to Akhmedov anyway. Miranda did get a bit of a 2nd wind in round 3 of their fight and Vettori slowed but he was very busy in that fight and stayed competitive through that 3rd round while fighting with a lead.Comment -
Just catching up on this event now.. Watching UFC tonight shows now....Comment -
Write ups coming in.. MMA MANIA - Prelims
135 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Mark De La Rosa
Tim Elliott (14-8) made a strong return to UFC’s ranks by giving Demetrious Jonson a quality test, then defeated Louis Smolka in what was basically a 15-minute scramble. Less than two months later, he faced Ben Nguyen, who took advantage of his reckless grappling to choke him out in just 49 seconds.
He was last booked to fight just weeks ago against Pietro Menga, who flubbed his weight cut so badly he had to be hospitalized.
Mark De La Rosa (9-0) — husband of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 competitor Montana De La Rosa — picked up a pair of regional titles to earn a shot at the Legacy FC Bantamweight belt last year. He ended up no-showing the fight and heading to Combate, where he picked up a pair of submission wins.
Five of his nine wins have come by submission.
Legacy shenanigans aside, De La Rosa is an excellent pickup for UFC. He’s quick and slick on the feet, plus more than capable on the mat. Elliott has struggled with mobile strikers before, including Ali Bagautinov and the aforementioned Johnson, and is stepping up in weight, which initially had me leaning toward an upset.
On closer examination, however, De La Rosa has weighed in below the Bantamweight limit multiple times. In addition, he visibly slowed against Arthur Oliveira last year when the Brazilian kept the pressure on him. If nothing else, Elliott makes opponents work, and he’s more than durable enough to walk through De La Rosa’s best. He survives a rough first round to put the pace on him in two and three.
Prediction: Elliott via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Marvin Vettori vs. Omari Akhmedov
First-round finishes of veterans Jack Mason and Igor Araujo punched Marvin Vettori’s (12-3) ticket to UFC, which he made the most of by submitting Alberto Uda in his promotional debut. Antonio Carlos Junior proved too much to deal with his next time out, but he did manage to overwhelm “Shoeface’s” fellow TUF: “Brazil” finalist, Vitor Muranda, in June.
He owns eight wins by submission and another two by (technical) knockout.
Omari Akhmedov’s (17-4) impressive UFC start (3-1) gave way to consecutive knockout losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski, both of which saw Akhmedov start strong but fade badly in the later rounds. The Dagestani grappler has since gotten back on track with decisions over Kyle Noke and Abdul Razak Alhassan, defying 2:1 odds to beat the latter.
He owns seven wins by form of knockout and has earned two “Fight of the Night” bonuses in UFC.
If this fight was at Welterweight, I’d take Akhmedov in a heartbeat. Vettori doesn’t pack enough heat in his hands to crack Akhmedov’s shaky jaw and is ostensibly on the wrong end of the wresting battle. Fifteen pounds is nothing to shake a stick at, though, and two solid performances can’t erase the memory of Akhmedov’s cardio failures.
Still, heavy hands and heavy hips go a long way. It’ll be close and probably packed with some wild scrambles, but Akhmedov spends enough time controlling the clinch and punching from top position to edge out the win.
Prediction: Akhmedov via split decisionComment -
Turbo and Shagy nailed it all and more.
My summation, in short, is a younger guy on the rise Vs. an older guy on the decline. First fight on the card, I feel like the UFC wants Vettori to win, and this matchup favors him. Vettori ITD, U 2.5. Playing it straight though mostly, have a few hundred ($345) parlayed with Cyborg though (-350) at -115.
Also on
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)12/26/17 23:57 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 337.14Result: Pending
UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Holly Holm vs Cristiane Cyborg12/31/17 00:15 EST
Cristiane Cyborg -350
UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov12/30/17 23:45 EST
Edson Barboza +240
STRAIGHT WAGER12/26/17 23:57 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 240.00Result: Pending
UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov12/30/17 23:45 EST
Edson Barboza +240
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Finally getting a good look at this Nurm/Barboza fight and it really is intriguing. Obviously it's a striker vs. grappler matchup, but trying to extrapolate who will be able to dictate the fight based on previous matchups is tough...
On the one hand, Barboza has excellent TDD. He fights from long range with some of the fastest kicks in the UFC, and his TDD is predicated on keeping this range. Because of his kick threat, he is usually successful at dictating the range, and he generally keeps if not improves his control of range throughout all 3 rounds because he makes an investment in roughing up the lead leg. By forcing long range shots, Barboza usually has to contend with single and double leg shots, and he does a good job of seeing them coming and using his speed/athleticism to get away to space as soon as possible. He seems to prioritize TDD so much that he doesn't waste one second staying close to a shooting opponent. He is particularly good at pushing the head, turning, and running out of single leg attempts.
On the other hand, Khabib simply does not fail to get takedowns, BUT he generally does so from inside the pocket. The few times Khabib can be seen getting stuffed on TD attempts, it is when he shoots from outside and doesn't finish a single or double leg attempt (things that Barboza is particularly good at defending). However, he never quits at one TD attempt and chains his takedowns very very well. If he does fail on the first, he very often ends up in deep against the cage with bodylock or clinch with super high under hook, and from this position he almost always lands the TD. Khabib throws TONS of feints on the feet, knowing his opponents will be concerned with the takedowns, but he is actually pretty low volume in terms of actually committing to strikes on the feet.
There is no sense in breaking down the ground game in this fight. If you think it's going to end up there, then just bet Khabib. If not, then your money is on Barboza. So the only question is where will this fight take place and it seems like a difficult question to answer since both fighters have solid skills to help them dictate position. I would lean Khabib since wrestlers usually win out when the main factor is dictating position, but it's not a super strong lean.
It seems pretty obvious to me that the value in this betting line is on Barboza. I'm not necessarily favoring him, but I think he definitely has a better than 30% chance.Comment -
Thanks Jibbs. I'm not really sure why the MMA Mania write-up is discounting Vettori so much. He has already shown some pretty decent skills and he has improved in every fight IMO. I feel like he has better promise, better size, and only has to contend with one threat from Akhmedov.
The question for me is whether moving up a weight class will be a detriment to Akhmedov because he doesn't have to be as disciplined with his diet and cardio, or if it will be an improvement for him by preserving his strength and energy. I do have some slight concerns about steroid use by Akhmedov and if it looks like he makes a jump up in this fight, I will probably feel that's even more so likely. I guess it depends how he looks, but that's probably my biggest concern betting against him is that he comes in like an unleashed animal and has the performance of his career.Comment -
He didn't look too bad in the fight against Shoeface. He defended well throughout the 3rd round. It's just he didn't have any chance to mount any offense.
He did slow down noticeably in the Miranda fight. Not sure why but maybe it was his new striking style. It certainly looked like he was doing something new in the striking department. This combined with maybe nerves maybe why he slowed down earlier than usual.
If you watch Vettori's earlier fight it looks like he looks to grapple most. His striking was often used just to close distance and clinch. This might explain why he got more tired in a mostly kickboxing match with Miranda but didn't get quite as tired with what people would consider a more grueling grappling battle with Shoeface.
I'm guessing with moving to the states and training at Kings recently will help with his cardio issues.Comment -
I like to think of this as "still becoming energy efficient in the striking". When fighters start to develop more well-rounded games they incorporate phases that they didn't have to use against lower level opposition. This can often lead to an adjustment period where they have to learn how to manage their energy within the new phase of the fight.Comment
