MD's House of Winnerz

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-26-13, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by MD

You're not getting what I'm saying. Compare him to how he was in the Martinez fight. He looked like a completely different fighter. No one commented on it, but he literally looked like he had taken two years off to train. He was just fighting a guy who everyone underestimates, while he himself was riding on some hype. The Makdessi who fought Cruickshank would have levelled the Cruickshank who fought Martinez.

The Makdessi fight was insane. I got lucky on that one

MD · 07-26-13, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

The Makdessi fight was insane. I got lucky on that one

Lucky in what way?

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-26-13, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by MD

Lucky in what way?

IIRC, I was on Makdessi and thought he would steam roll through

MD · 07-26-13, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

IIRC, I was on Makdessi and thought he would steam roll through

I wouldn't say you were lucky. Makdessi is two levels above how I thought Cruickshank would look, and a level above how he did look. Makdessi gave up the first round, but controlled it after that.

**mmaed** · 07-26-13, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by MD

Cruickshank's camp is about as bad as camps get at the top level, but if you saw his last fight, you should know that it doesn't matter.

I really doubt that it'll hit the ground on Edwards' terms either.

I just watched Cuickshank vs Makdessi. Cuickshank did look pretty damn good. Makdessi is very good on the feet. I guess I'll watch a little more tape on Edwards. I am leaning towards Cuickshank in this one. His pace is pretty high Edwards is turning 37 in November.

**mmaed** · 07-26-13, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by MD

I wouldn't say you were lucky. Makdessi is two levels above how I thought Cruickshank would look, and a level above how he did look. Makdessi gave up the first round, but controlled it after that.

Cuickshank did pretty well in the second round. He lost it pretty clearly but he landed some good shots. The third round was more of a domination.

MD · 07-26-13, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Cuickshank did pretty well in the second round. He lost it pretty clearly but he landed some good shots. The third round was more of a domination.

I don't agree with that. Third round was completely dominant, but the second was extremely close in my opinion.

**mmaed** · 07-26-13, 06:00 PM

Yeah it was pretty close but I thought Makdessi was starting to turn the tide of the fight towards the end with his punching combinations. I tried to find tape on Edwards but I couldn't really get anything. My ufc vault subscription isn't that great, they only give you half the fights. Anyways I read play by plays on his fight with Ferguson and Flagg. Ferguson seemed to be landing on him quite a bit. Flagg somewhat. I am starting to get the feeling that Cuickshank should be able to win this one. I just took him for ko of the night at +1500. I will probably put something on him straight as well. I am already on Castillo for 2 units and I'm a little worried about it. Means has a good deal of power. I am just hoping that Castillo can get him down and hold him down. Aside from that I kinda like Julie Kedzie to mix it up and win but I don't like betting WMMA + Germaine is a very experienced kickboxer coming from a good camp. Outside of that I will probably be on Masvial and DJ. DJ should be too slick for Moraga and I think Masvidal should be able to mix it up. Though I am a little worried Cheisa can pull something off with his wrestling and submission game. He was pretty quick to latch onto Anton Kuivanens back and get that chokehold in. I think Masvidal is a better all around fighter than Anton but I just not sure where to cap Chiesa abilities. He hasn't beaten anyone that great but he has beaten everyone he has fought.

**mmaed** · 07-26-13, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by MD

I don't agree with that. Third round was completely dominant, but the second was extremely close in my opinion.

Alright, are you on Cuickshank over Edwards?

**mirinquads** · 07-27-13, 10:06 AM

Shank gon wrestle the thugjitzs master.

**mmaed** · 07-27-13, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Shank gon wrestle the thugjitzs master.

That kinda worries me. His thugjitsu aint bad.

MD · 07-27-13, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Alright, are you on Cuickshank over Edwards?

Yeah, I'm on Cruickshank.

MD · 07-27-13, 12:59 PM

Tonight's plays:

Mighty Mouse large, Cruickshank moderate, Guillard moderate, Rory MacDonald moderate-large, Castillo moderate (I have a bunch of money on the decision pro, too, though, so this is a reasonably big play for me). Also, an ass-load of props, as always.

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-27-13, 01:28 PM

Where you at with kedzie GVR?

I got the same plays. Small on Castillo (one alpha male parlay) I don't trust his chin but should wrestle here

large on Mighty Mouse as well. My vag might itch and I might hedge(arb)

MD · 07-27-13, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Where you at with kedzie GVR?

I got the same plays. Small on Castillo (one alpha male parlay) I don't trust his chin but should wrestle here

large on Mighty Mouse as well. My vag might itch and I might hedge(arb)

My big hedge is Moraga KotN +2100.

I'm on GDR small.

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-27-13, 01:43 PM

Yeah I played KOTN for him and Cruikshank

**mmaed** · 07-27-13, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by MD

Tonight's plays:

Mighty Mouse large, Cruickshank moderate, Guillard moderate, Rory MacDonald moderate-large, Castillo moderate (I have a bunch of money on the decision pro, too, though, so this is a reasonably big play for me). Also, an ass-load of props, as always.

With means rough weight cut aren't you worry he will tire and get subbed or ko'd? Castillo doesn't seem to sub guys that much but I have a suspicion Means BJJ aint all that.

**mmaed** · 07-27-13, 02:13 PM

Can anyone make a case for Chiesa winning? I am thinking about betting Masvidal. My main concern now is him gassing. I am having trouble getting an idea of what his takedown defense is like though. I watched parts of his fight against Melendez but I didn't see Melendez shooting for takedowns. I know he was taken down by Paul Daley in their fight. Paul of course is much more threatening with the hands and opened up the takedown that way. Chiesa's standup is not very good but if he can push him up against the cage I am worried he might muscle him down.

**mmaed** · 07-27-13, 02:22 PM

Well he stuffed Wilcox in their fight and he was a division 1 wrestler.

MD · 07-27-13, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Can anyone make a case for Chiesa winning? I am thinking about betting Masvidal. My main concern now is him gassing. I am having trouble getting an idea of what his takedown defense is like though. I watched parts of his fight against Melendez but I didn't see Melendez shooting for takedowns. I know he was taken down by Paul Daley in their fight. Paul of course is much more threatening with the hands and opened up the takedown that way. Chiesa's standup is not very good but if he can push him up against the cage I am worried he might muscle him down.

I don't like Masvidal at all here, I played Chiesa ITD at +445. Masvidal should win pretty easily with his skillset, but he's an idiot, and Chiesa is very clever. An arrogant, skilled fighter with low fight (and general) IQ, fighting a hard-working, less skilled, less talented fighter with high IQ who is going to give it his all until the end? Yeah, I think the line's kind of off.

**scottsins** · 07-27-13, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by MD

Tonight's plays:

Mighty Mouse large, Cruickshank moderate, Guillard moderate, Rory MacDonald moderate-large, Castillo moderate (I have a bunch of money on the decision pro, too, though, so this is a reasonably big play for me). Also, an ass-load of props, as always.

Thanks for your picks. I don't post here a lot, but I cyber-stalk the sh1t out of this thread (no homo). Anyway, will you be posting these other props you haven't listed?

BOL

MD · 07-27-13, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by scottsins

Thanks for your picks. I don't post here a lot, but I cyber-stalk the sh1t out of this thread (no homo). Anyway, will you be posting these other props you haven't listed?

BOL

No prob, always glad to help out.

There's a lot to post, I have 30+ bets on this card. I got Guillard decision +400, I really like that prop. Uh... Albert SotN +800 is another favourite. Andrade +3.5 +240 is probably the best prop I've seen on the card in my opinion, but it's dropped considerably now. Still probably value in it, it should be +100 at worst.

**mmaed** · 07-27-13, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by MD

I don't like Masvidal at all here, I played Chiesa ITD at +445. Masvidal should win pretty easily with his skillset, but he's an idiot, and Chiesa is very clever. An arrogant, skilled fighter with low fight (and general) IQ, fighting a hard-working, less skilled, less talented fighter with high IQ who is going to give it his all until the end? Yeah, I think the line's kind of off.

Yeah he has the skills to win. I did read that he Masvidal was did pretty well in NAGA back in the day but it was on an underground forum so who knows. Why do you think Masvidal is stupid?

**Crassus** · 07-27-13, 02:45 PM

I'm only against you on the Cruikshank fight, with you on the rest, good to see.

**scottsins** · 07-27-13, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by MD

No prob, always glad to help out.

There's a lot to post, I have 30+ bets on this card. I got Guillard decision +400, I really like that prop. Uh... Albert SotN +800 is another favourite. Andrade +3.5 +240 is probably the best prop I've seen on the card in my opinion, but it's dropped considerably now. Still probably value in it, it should be +100 at worst.

Thanks again.

**Catchn_Picks** · 07-27-13, 03:24 PM

gl MD with your card...should be fun...see ya in the live fight threads I hope.

MD · 07-27-13, 04:39 PM

Adding a small-moderate bet on Herman -175.

Can't believe I had to sweat that GdR fight. Anyone who gave that fight to Kedzie should quit watching MMA.

MD · 07-27-13, 05:10 PM

Adding a small bet on Voelker +315. One of the toughest guys in the WW division and is being undervalued here. Expecting him to lose, though.

MD · 07-27-13, 05:44 PM

I have more than I thought I did on Guillard as I forgot to count my bets on Pinnacle and Sportsbook. I'm moderate-large on him here. Hit that +130 opener too, which was pretty slick. I think he should be -230 here.

**bjpenn85** · 07-27-13, 06:00 PM

Nice hit on guillard. He comes through easily.

MD · 07-27-13, 06:03 PM

Thanks buddy. I have a lot on Castillo here, so hopefully he pulls through and I don't lose all of the profits I just made on the Guillard fight.

**scottsins** · 07-27-13, 06:47 PM

Cash that Masvidal ITD!

**getlucky2win** · 07-27-13, 07:41 PM

Rory by dec +214 sounds pretty gd

**scottsins** · 07-27-13, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by scottsins

Cash that Masvidal ITD!

My apologies. When I wrote down your plays from an earlier post, I actually wrote it down wrong and accidentally bet the "wrong" guy ITD. Wasn't trying to be a d1ck.

MD · 07-27-13, 08:01 PM

No problem, nice cash on Masvidal. I was expecting Masvidal to win but I think Chiesa was being severely undervalued.

Anyway, adding a bit more of a hedge to my Rory Mac play. Tiny on Ellenberger wins in round 1 +1000.