I'm only referring to the Hale line. I think he'll close +120ish.
Hale already -130.
Hale already -130.
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While you're here, I meant to ask. How do you feel about Kelly sizing vs flat betting methods in regards to MMA and sports betting in general? I've seen some arguments against Kelly online, and although I disagree, I don't have the knowledge to disprove them myself. Figured I'd ask you. I'm aware that Kelly is optimal, however.Comment -
Fletcher/Parke goes the distance and Pierce/Baczynski goes the distance small: +300
Fletcher/Parke goes the distance small: +145
Gonna play Pearson/Sotiropoulos goes the distance if the odds hit positive money.Comment -
The sport makes no difference, kelly staking is always optimal.
Any anti-kelly arguments you're hearing are probably from touts or people selling a system, or just straight schmucks. I've never met a professional bettor or even card counter who didn't swear by kelly. Some people will say Kelly has too much variance, but you can set your kelly multiplier to whatever you want. 1/4 is pretty common.
If you have specific arguments against it, I can try and debunk them.Comment -
This one is the most notable I've come across, although even I can see some of the issues with it.Comment -
Sotiropoulos/Pearson goes the distance: +105.Comment -
If things don't go your way, you might need to look into an apartment, instead. #apartmentofwinnerzComment -
I'm a turbo bankroll nit. I probably bet less than at least a few guys on the forum as a whole, but I'd be very surprised if there were many who have a bigger bankroll. All dat bankroll management brah.
I think it's a reasonable possibility. 60-65%. Some pretty good value at +money.Comment -
Sure. To be brief: Pearson is a better striker, but I don't think he hits hard enough to finish Sotiropoulos with any great degree of consistency. He very well could hit George with a right hook and put him out, and George may very well catch Pearson in a sub, but honestly, I see this fight being more of a grapplefest than most people expect. Pearson attempts a lot of takedowns, which many seem to be discounting, and when he fails on takedowns, he's very content to hold his opponent against the fence for extended periods of time. He's very strong in the clinch. Sotiropoulos is similar, but he's much more aggressive with his attempts and tries harder to get the fight to the ground. They both have reasonably strong gastanks, especially Sotiropoulos; I'd expect him to have an edge there.
I expect some uneventful striking exchanges in which Pearson outpoints Sotiropoulos, followed by extended periods of clinching and cage work in what will turn out to be a very boring main event. 60-65% of the time, at least. A late Sotiropoulos submission or an early Pearson KO are also possibilities. Pearson wins in round 2 is a strong play.Comment -
Mendes/Meza starts round 3 small: +135
So far, my bets look like this:
Mendes/Meza starts round 3 small: +135
Fletcher/Parke goes the distance and Pierce/Baczynski goes the distance parlay: +300
Fletcher/Parke goes the distance: +145
Sotiropoulos/Pearson goes the distance: +105
Brad Scott +160 small
Norman Parke +105 moderate-large
Manny Rodrigues small +160
Matt Mitrione small +210
Jamie Varner small -110
Poirier large -170
Colton Smith moderate +230
Ross Pearson moderate +115
Lombard/Poirier parlay, moderate
Moderate arb on Del Rosario/Barry
Beltran +300 small
Jansen -165
Hale -155
Big weekend. Hope for the best guiz.Comment -
Cashed my arbs, and Beltran, although it was a small bet, it's always a good feeling to cash a +300 ticket.Comment -
Did Kenny really just say that Chad "lay and pray" Mendes is knocking guys out left and right because he finished two massive cans in a row? Good lord. The UFC really IS giving him these guys on purpose.
Also, my "starts round three" doesn't cash. Unfortunate, but somewhat expected.Comment -
^Great call.
Bit more on Scott at +225, adding an arb with Sotiropoulos at +170.
EDIT: Good God Whitaker's hair is awful.Last edited by MD; 12-14-12, 10:13 PM.Comment -
Lost small-moderate on Scott (was originally small, but I added more at +225), lost small on the Mendes o/u and Rodriguez plays, lost small on Sotiropoulos/Pearson goes to decision, lost small on Hale.
Won fairly large on Norman Parke straight up, fairly large on that parlay and distance play (together, not individually), won moderate on Pearson at +115, cashed moderate on the Beltran play at +300, and of course my arbs cashed.
Huge night for me, profits-wise. Small bet on Beltran cashed very well, I got some good arbs, and I won all of my big and moderate plays and cashed very, very nicely. Plus, I got to see Pearson absolutely embarrass Sotiropoulos.
Hopefully the good times will continue tomorrow night.Last edited by MD; 12-14-12, 11:13 PM.Comment -
Really hoping for a Poirier win tomorrow; I'm large on him straight, and he's the last leg of these parlays:
+102, and +320, approximately.Pending 2 Team Parlay Win 12/14/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -210* vs Rousimar Palhares Pending 12/15/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Dustin Poirier -260* vs Jonathan Brookins Pending 5 Team Parlay Win 12/14/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -210* vs Rousimar Palhares Win 12/14/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Chad Mendes -1300* vs Yaotzin Meza Win 12/14/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Mike Pierce -325* vs Seth Baczynski Win 12/14/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Mike Wilkinson -205* vs Brendan Loughnane Pending 12/15/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Dustin Poirier -260* vs Jonathan Brookins
Was on the wrong side in the Wilkinson fight, though.Comment -
Matt Mitrione small +210
Jamie Varner small -110
Poirier large -170
Colton Smith moderate +230
Lombard/Poirier parlay, moderate
Del Rosario/Poirier parlay at just under +100, large.
- 12/15/2012 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Shane del Rosario* -240 vs Pat Barry
- 12/15/2012 7:30 PM UFC Fighting 1702 Rustam Khabilov* -230 vs Vinc Pichel
- 12/15/2012 5:30 PM UFC Fighting 1952 Tim Elliott* -165 vs Jared Papazian
+220 approximately, somewhere in that region. Small.
If Poirier wins, it's going to be an absolutely massive weekend for me regardless of how my other bets go. About as big as weekends get.
I added more to Mitrione, and will possibly add a bit more closer to fight time if the odds improve.Last edited by MD; 12-15-12, 08:43 AM.Comment -
Edited in more plays.Comment -
Good luck MD!Comment -
No, in that case he should change it to "MD's house of pickz not playz".
I used the pickz/playz system to build my fortune back when I booked with that jew phaget joey oddessa in new york. We would settle up every week in this joo deli in brooklyn. One day I walked in and told the heebs behind he counter "Gimmie a ham and cheese sandwich".
They started glaring at me and said they don't serve that here. I slammed my hands down on the countertop and said "This is a deli and you don't got ham and cheese? You better go around he corner to the ko-reans and get me some oscar meyer and kraft singles". Little joo ran off real quick to get the fixins".
It was then I spotted Odessa. He was hiding in the corner hoping I would see him. Even though the entire restaurant was starting at me he said "hey defacto didn't see you buddy". I told him "cut the shit jooboy, i had the dodgers last night, pay up".
"You had the Dodgers? I thought you were pickin em not playin em". "No I was playin em". It was then he handed me a pre counted wad of bills in the amount of my winnings and I say "If you thought I was picken em why did you have it ready for me!". I whacked him in the head with the wad of bills, it was only meant to be a playful smack but he was knocked out face first into his mazza ball soup.
- Ham and Cheese to Go by DeFactoCripplerComment -
goooooooood lord
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outstanding!Comment -
lol that was the point.
but i really wouldn't expect you to understand such nuances when you talk to one person who is blowing smoke up your ass with different handles.
you really used to be a sweet kid crassus, back when you were literally betting $1 per fight. but then you just changed "$" to "unit" and became the best capper on the internet (according to the writers blowing smoke up your ass atleast)
If I told you to "go home and get your focking shinebox", would I be quoting from goodfellas?Comment -
Oh I'm sure I missed all sort of subtle nuances in your post, I'm sure it was all brilliant commentary. Cmon now you can do better then that can't you, don't you remember when I didn't bet at all and I was simulating everything? Hell, remember when I thought when dealing with a 50/50 fight the best case would be to parlay BOTH fighters with two "locks"?
And it's best capper on SBR. Get it straight now.Comment -
To be fair, punisher said he knew of no better advice on the internet than JC, vaughan, BJpenn and you. Serious.
I mean, BJpenn is solid, and I have pinched v's pecker through his burberry raincoat numerous times, but best on the internet?
Tell me crassus, how come every time I want a lawyer they are ALWAYS busy? ALWAYS, unless they are a criminal laywer and you're in jail. But we have laywers here who take the time out of their "busy" day to pinch the peckers of kids and tell them they are the best on the net.
24 hours a day I can get a high five emoticon reply from a real lawyer!Comment -
I take it back, one of the four best cappers on the internet. Badass.
I would imagine it's because lawyers don't do anything for free, I personally pay Punisher a TON of sbr points for the smiley faces on my thread. It's a business after all.
Question for you, you seem to have a ton of problems with the community here (and being the dirty manlet kids we are who can blame you) so how would you fix it? How ever do we gain the respect we all so desperately crave?Comment
