Baseball Crusher Fade 2012

[Spungalo]

Thanks Spugalo. Just joined SBR but have followed you for about two months now. Great work.

Welcome!

[Spungalo]

No plays in 3 days, has this ever happened before with bc?

Almost yearly it seems there is some deal with Crusher. The weird part is he's sending soccer plays but not baseball. I bet someone there is on vacation or something.

[Spungalo]

7/17/12 pick

Tgunn11 said that Crusher sent out a late MLB play yesterday. It was a win for Crusher so despite us not being able to play the fade (which would have been a loss anyway), we will count it as a Crusher win and a system loss

Crusher fade (C bet):
Arizona +155

(Bet 2.08 to win 3.23) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 44-1, +22.35 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.55) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 44-54, +3.35 units

(Bet 2.08 to win 3.23)
Chase-til-you-drop: 44-54, +26.02 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

7/18/12 pick

Crusher fade (D bet):
Seattle +110

(Bet 2.89 to win 3.18) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 44-1, +20.27 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.10) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 44-55, +2.35 units

(Bet 2.89 to win 3.18)
Chase-til-you-drop: 44-55, +23.94 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

7/19/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Arizona +125

(Bet 1 to win 1.25) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 44-2, +17.38 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.25) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 44-56, +1.35 units

(Bet 3.31 to win 4.14)
Chase-til-you-drop: 44-56 +21.05 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

7/20/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Atlanta +135

(Bet 1.74 to win 2.35) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 44-2, +16.38 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.35) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 44-57, +0.35 units

(Bet 3.45 to win 4.66)
Chase-til-you-drop: 44-57 +17.74 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[shooms79]

Good luck...lets do this

[Spungalo]

7/21/12 pick

A bet Baltimore +130

[Spungalo]

7/22/12 pick

A bet LA Dodgers +120

[Spungalo]

7/23/12 play

Crusher fade (A bet):
LA Dodgers +123

(Bet 1 to win 1.23) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 47-2, +21.23 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.23) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 47-57, +4.20 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.23)
Chase-til-you-drop: 47-57 +24.90 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

7/24/12 pick

No time to post it all-- SD +150 is A bet

23-Jul	A	LAD +123	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.23	1.23	1.23	W	48-2	48-57	48-57	22.46	5.43	26.13
24-Jul	A	SD +150	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.50	1.50	1.50

[Spungalo]

7/25/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
NY Mets +150

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 48-2, +21.46 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.50) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 48-58, +4.43 units

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51)
Chase-til-you-drop: 48-58 +25.13 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[tgunn11]

Spungalo, I just found this thread from one of your previous posts in my Crusher thread. How is the fade working out so far this season?

I believe a person can make money by both playing and fading Crusher but because of work cannot find time to test it.

Is baseball the only sport you fade Crusher?

[EVPlus]

Spungalo, I just found this thread from one of your previous posts in my Crusher thread. How is the fade working out so far this season?

I believe a person can make money by both playing and fading Crusher but because of work cannot find time to test it.

Is baseball the only sport you fade Crusher?

tgunn - this season, it's working out for the crusher faders. The longest win streak I have on file is 4 straight from June 8th to the 11th.

HOWEVER - when I checked last year's records, crusher had some extended win streaks.

In september, the longest win streak was 8 or more (there were two dates I couldn't find records for).

In August, the longest win streak was 6 and 5.

In July, the longest win streak was 4.

I didn't have the time or patience to check the earlier months.

Obviously, past results NEVER guarantee future performance; however, if this trend holds, auto-fading crusher may become more and more risky as the season progresses. This actually makes sense to me. After the all star break, trades, and so on, the lines become increasingly sharper and vegas won't give away winners at a low cost. And because crusher is a chalk eater, it follows that his picks win at a higher rate.

[Spungalo]

7/26/12 pick

Crusher fade (C bet):
Cleveland +150

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 48-2, +19.79 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.50) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 48-59, +3.43 units

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51)
Chase-til-you-drop: 48-59 +23.46 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

Spungalo, I just found this thread from one of your previous posts in my Crusher thread. How is the fade working out so far this season?

I believe a person can make money by both playing and fading Crusher but because of work cannot find time to test it.

Is baseball the only sport you fade Crusher?

Hey tgunn my friend-- Yes, I have only tracked Crusher fade in Baseball because I saw an opportunity because of the mid to high juice on 95% of his picks. I made some money doing straight chases in Basketball and Hockey, but will begin to track those as well. I did stretches where I faded his picks, but I remember getting some losses when he went on a hockey run last year.

My problem with thinking money can be made following crusher is the 4-game chase can knock out a bankroll easily (if odds -150 on each play and chasing to win back previous bet plus 1 unit):
-1.5 units - (2.25 units + 1.5 units) - (7.88 units + 1.5 units) + (21.95 units + 1.5 units) = a loss of 38.08 units
So to get that back with playing -150 odds, one would have to win 39 systems? If 4 system losses, it would take 156 wins to win it back, so that would be a losing season. otherwise, you could profit (especially with only 1 or 2 system losses).

However, with basketball (avg odds -110) I think it is quite possible to profit from Crusher, and maybe from fading. I will of course be tracking both systems this coming Football, Hockey and Basketball seasons and we shall see!

Unless I screwed up the math (quite possible, I am working and trying to do this with another spreadsheet of data open for work), that is tough to do, very tough in fact.

Let me know what you think, my friend. Glad to see you over at rx forum. I will be moving this thread over there once the season ends. This place here is nuts.

[Spungalo]

7/27/12 pick

A bet: Tampa Bay +150

Bet 1 to win 1.50 units on all 3 systems

[Spungalo]

7/28/12 pick

B bet: Colorado +140

Bet 1.72 to win 2.41 on 1st and 3rd systems
Bet 1 to win 1.40 on 2nd (flat fading) system

[Spungalo]

7/29/12 pick

C bet: Milwaukee +130

Bet 2.32 to win 3.02 in 1st and 3 rd systems
Bet 1 to win 1.30 in flat fade system

[Spungalo]

7/30/12 pick

Crusher fade (D bet):
Minnesota +125

(Bet 2.86 to win 3.58) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 49-2, +17.26 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.25) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 49-62, +1.93 units

(Bet 2.86 to win 3.58)
Chase-til-you-drop: 49-62 +20.93 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

7/31/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Miami +140

(Bet 1 to win 1.40) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 50-2, +20.84 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.40) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 50-62, +3.18 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.40)
Chase-til-you-drop: 50-62 +24.51 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

8/1/12 pick and month-by-month fade stats

Crusher fade (B bet):
Philadelphia +125

(Bet 1.80 to win 2.25) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 50-2, +19.84 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.25) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 50-63, +2.18 units

(Bet 1.80 to win 2.25)
Chase-til-you-drop: 50-63 +23.51 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

Per System Totals
		MONTH	SYS1	SYS2	SYS3
		April	12.60	5.37	12.60
		May	7.57	-0.26	7.57
		June	17.46	7.76	21.13
		July	2.38	-5.58	2.38

[Spungalo]

8/2/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Toronto +122

(Bet 1 to win 1.22) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 51-2, +22.09 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.22) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 51-63, +3.43 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.22)
Chase-til-you-drop: 51-63 +25.76 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

8/3/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Baltimore +150

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 51-2, +21.09 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.50) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 51-64, +2.43 units

(Bet 1.67 to win 2.51)
Chase-til-you-drop: 51-64 +24.76 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[shooms79]

It would be curious to see how this proceeds in 2h. My usualy patterns bet dogs 1h, and favs (or at least teams that are suppose to do well) 2h. I also tend to ride hot teams more and fade cold ones. BOL

[Spungalo]

8/4/12 pick

C bet

Toronto +140

Bet 2.2 to win 3.08 on systems 1 and 3
Bet 1 to win 1.4 on flat fade

[Spungalo]

8/5/12 pick

A bet: LA Angels +100

Bet 1 to win 1 on all 3 systems

[Spungalo]

8/6/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Oakland +140

(Bet 1.72 to win 2.41) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 52-2, +21.50 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.40) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 52-66, +1.83 units

(Bet 1.72 to win 2.41)
Chase-til-you-drop: 52-66 +25.17 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

8/7/12 pick

C bet: Miami +140

[Spungalo]

8/8/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Oakland +118

(Bet 1 to win 1.18) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 53-2, +22.99 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.18) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 53-67, +2.23 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.18)
Chase-til-you-drop: 53-67 +26.66 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

8/9/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Cleveland +120

(Bet 1.83 to win 2.20) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 53-2, +21.99 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.20) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 53-68, +1.23 units

(Bet 1.83 to win 2.20)
Chase-til-you-drop: 53-68 +25.66 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[RiverRat12]

Spungalo: I think oakland won the night before and cleveland should be an A bet.

[Spungalo]

Rock on RiverRat! You are absolutely right. Sorry about that! I will correct in this next post.

[Spungalo]

8/10/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Kansas City +120

(Bet 1 to win 1.20) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 55-2, +25.37 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.20) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 55-67, +4.61 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.20)
Chase-til-you-drop: 55-67 +29.04 units
(from here on out, the # of units in chase-til-you-drop will be different from the BC Fade System Record above, since we keep chasing in this system despite a system loss)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

8/11/12 pick

B bet: Texas +130

Bet 1.77 to win 2.30 on systems 1 and 3
Bet 1 to win 1.3 on system 2