on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**stevex** · 08-22-12, 07:53 PM

I'll take care of posting the plays in on3's absense fellas. I won't be able to post till after I get home from work around 5 EST, but it won't be an issue hopefully. Not to many days left in August so hopefully we can finish off the season +units.

Mets are just atrocious swinging the bat. They've left so many runners on base in this series I can't even keep track of it any more. Hopefully there pitching holds up in these last innings and they can get a run or two.

**Wallco99** · 08-22-12, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by stevex

I'll take care of posting the plays in on3's absense fellas. I won't be able to post till after I get home from work around 5 EST, but it won't be an issue hopefully. Not to many days left in August so hopefully we can finish off the season +units.

Mets are just atrocious swinging the bat. They've left so many runners on base in this series I can't even keep track of it any more. Hopefully there pitching holds up in these last innings and they can get a run or two.

Thanks, steve.

**on3** · 08-23-12, 12:14 AM

UPDATED for 08/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 144-15-0; Profit: -27 units
Filtered System: 46-3-0; Profit: +5.75 units
5/2 chase: 19-3-0; profit: -2 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 93-70; 29-19
Game 2 (B) win = 40-27; 11-11; 11-11
Game 3 (C) win = 13-15; 6-3; 8-3

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 08/23/2012
95-95-95-95
120-117-41-41
123-120-120-120

New Line Filtered
x-x-96-86
134-130-127-186

REGULAR FOR 08/23/2012
(A) TEX -200/+110 bet 95 -- play RL
(A) TB pending line release

Filtered
TEX to win 96

5/2
none

**stevex** · 08-23-12, 12:23 AM

Tough tough night. Its been a rough season overall, but I'm hoping we can get to even.

**on3** · 08-23-12, 12:50 PM

TB -185 to win 95 in addition to the TEX play.

**stevex** · 08-23-12, 04:14 PM

on3 the Texas line is -166 at my book. Do I still play RL or play ML?

**abv** · 08-23-12, 05:40 PM

Pitching change: Darvish -> Oswalt. Tough call because Oswalt (6.04 ERA) is simply terrible but he gets good run support (Texas has won 7 of his 10 starts). Of those 7 wins, 3 were by 1 run.

Texas took 2 of 3 last time the Twins were in town, both 1 run wins.

Diamond (2.95 ERA) has never pitched vs any Texas player and that usually favors the pitcher. However, Texas bats woke up last night and they are the definition of streaky, so who knows what could happen tonight.

The system would clearly call for ML but it's a scary amount to put on Oswalt.

**CrazyCarl** · 08-23-12, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by stevex

on3 the Texas line is -166 at my book. Do I still play RL or play ML?

It's a bit late, but you're supposed to play ML at that price.

**knugen** · 08-23-12, 11:20 PM

More night like this ��

**stevex** · 08-23-12, 11:37 PM

A good night tonight fellas. Much needed after that disaster yesterday. Its looking like we have a big card tomorrow for the system so will all put our heads together since on3 is out. This could be a huge weekend for us if all goes well so lets get it!

Like I stated before, I won't be home till around 5 EST so if somebody else gets the itch and wants to post the plays earlier go right ahead. Other wise I'll post them as soon as I can.

**Wallco99** · 08-24-12, 01:13 AM

I will let stevex make the official post tomorrow, but to help him out, and to give people who wish to bet the games a little earlier, here they are:

Unfiltered

Arizona (-170) - (bet M/L)
L.A. Dodgers (-205/+110) - (bet -1 1/2)
N.Y. Mets (-230/-105) - (bet -1 1/2)
Boston (-180) - (bet M/L)
Chicago White Sox (-170) - (bet M/L)

Filtered

Arizona (-180) - (bet M/L) (currently at o/u 9)
Boston (-170) - (bet M/L) (currently at o/u 9)

* Make sure the lines for the o/u for the filtered games remain at 9 or higher before placing your wagers.
** The lines for Detroit were not out when I posted this, they may be a play as well.
*** Also make sure ALL lines remain above -140 on 5 dimes at time of close or plays will be unofficial

Good luck all.

**hagball52** · 08-24-12, 08:25 AM

Also just a note fyi. The Mets and Diamondbacks are Official plays in the John Morrison system.

**analyzer** · 08-24-12, 10:55 AM

Does anyone have an idea of the bet amounts based on the labby lines?

**MrMannix** · 08-24-12, 04:17 PM

That Chicago play feels shaky too me. White Sox do for a letdown after sweeping the Yanks and now playing a surging M's team. Looks to me like the M's have favorable pitching matchups in all three games too. I'm chasing Seattle to win one in this series.
Good Luck To All!

**Mr. Green** · 08-24-12, 04:19 PM

We missed the Cubs today as a filtered play

**stevex** · 08-24-12, 04:29 PM

Had some car trouble on the way home fellas. Won't be back in time tonight, can somebody update the plays for me

**CrazyCarl** · 08-24-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Had some car trouble on the way home fellas. Won't be back in time tonight, can somebody update the plays for me

Lol.

**abv** · 08-24-12, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Mr. Green

We missed the Cubs today as a filtered play

Only the 5/2 system uses closing lines; Filtered parallels the the Unfiltered system and it opened too low to qualify to either.

**J.M. Disciple** · 08-24-12, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by on3

UPDATED for 08/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 144-13-0; Profit: -4.75 units
Filtered System: 46-3-0; Profit: +5.75 units
5/2 chase: 18-3-0; profit: -12 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 93-70; 29-19
Game 2 (B) win = 40-27; 11-11; 11-11
Game 3 (C) win = 13-13; 6-3; 7-3

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 08/23/2012
x-x-95-x
120-117-41-41
43-40-120-120

New Line Filtered
x-x-96-86
134-130-127-186

REGULAR FOR 08/23/2012
(C) NYM -175 to win 163
(C) LAD +100 to win 160

Filtered
none

5/2
ARZ to win 200

bump. This should serve as a guide line to the amount you should be betting to win for todays games.

**J.M. Disciple** · 08-24-12, 05:22 PM

If I was running the labby lines I would just average everything out. Based on the "to win 163" on mets yesterday at -175 they would of lost $285. Which leaves $1,022 in play over the 9 #s on the line (51.1 units)

So if i was running the line(s) I would just average it all out which makes it

113-113-113-113
113-113-113-113
113

A-B-C do not matter cause of the short back tested period they all have about the same win percentage, so based on a $20 unit size and special thanks to wallco for posting the plays each bet should be to win 5.65 units.

The filtered plays should be to win
Arz $96
Bos $86

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________
I will let stevex make the official post tomorrow, but to help him out, and to give people who wish to bet the games a little earlier, here they are:

Unfiltered

Arizona (-170) - (bet M/L)
L.A. Dodgers (-205/+110) - (bet -1 1/2)
N.Y. Mets (-230/-105) - (bet -1 1/2)
Boston (-180) - (bet M/L)
Chicago White Sox (-170) - (bet M/L)

Filtered

Arizona (-180) - (bet M/L) (currently at o/u 9)
Boston (-170) - (bet M/L) (currently at o/u 9)

* Make sure the lines for the o/u for the filtered games remain at 9 or higher before placing your wagers.
** The lines for Detroit were not out when I posted this, they may be a play as well.
*** Also make sure ALL lines remain above -140 on 5 dimes at time of close or plays will be unofficial

Good luck all.

________________________________________ ________________________________________ __________
This is just a guideline since stevex couldn't make the post. If stevex wants to average out the lines shouldn't be too hard to adjust the record, labby, and any other math tomorrow.

Good Luck Everyone

**stevex** · 08-24-12, 05:26 PM

HUGEEEE night tonight fellas. We need these BAD!

**stevex** · 08-24-12, 05:26 PM

Thanks for having my back J.M.!

**J.M. Disciple** · 08-24-12, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Thanks for having my back J.M.!

besides averaging, just make sure you keep it similar to how On3 does his labby. Balance A loss (1/2) on line A and (1/2 line B). Do not add any new numbers to the line.

**lapi7** · 08-24-12, 11:05 PM

Just as a matter of trivia.
I have MLB closing line stats going back to 1988.
I'm just starting to check but I am willing to covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101307405&pa ge=113# that no team since 1988 or perhaps in history has lost in the following manner:

1) All 5 games played AT HOME

2) The home team is favored by -150 to -235 or more IN EVERY GAME

3) The home team has scored an grand TOTAL of only 6 runs in all five games giving them an average of only 1.2 runs PER GAME

4) The home team is playing the two WORST TEAMS in the entire MLB roster of both AL and NL

4) So far the only team that I can find IN HISTORY to boast such a miserable (perhaps rigged or cheating) record is the New York Mets.

They've already lost 5 in a row at home to Colorado and one to Houston so far. If Houston sweeps them over the next two games then an internal investigation should be launched immediately because I know of Pee-Wee league teams that could win some of these games.

Something smells rotten in the Citi Field.

**J.M. Disciple** · 08-25-12, 12:29 AM

Looks like this system picked up 1 unit tonight overall, but the labby lines will indeed get heavier with 3 wins and 2 losses should be 8 #s in play tomorrow totally $1,000 or 50 units.

STEVE I suggest posting the plays asap since work stuff gets in the way, just post the stuff the night before.

**lapi7** · 08-25-12, 05:43 AM

Something's VERY "screwy" with the Mets !!!

Even w Dickey on the mound...THE METS WILL LOSE !!!

I'm betting every last dollar I have on Houston today !!!

**tomahawk93** · 08-25-12, 01:28 PM

Filter play on AZ Plus 5/2?

What is the filter amount of AZ? 136 per the last post with the labby? Do we add part of the 96 from last night?

Also is AZ a 5/2 for 100?

**knugen** · 08-25-12, 02:05 PM

This dickey guy screw this up for us

**CrazyCarl** · 08-25-12, 02:43 PM

No offense, but why in the world is this SteveX guy updating the plays?

And I use 'updating' very lightly...

**knugen** · 08-25-12, 02:56 PM

On3 are out for some days

**CrazyCarl** · 08-25-12, 02:58 PM

Were JMD and other posters out too is more what I'm asking.

**stevex** · 08-25-12, 03:05 PM

CrazyCarl. Just for you buddy

Mets -1 1/2
Arizona ML

Not to hard is it? Tool

**stevex** · 08-25-12, 03:05 PM

Both B bets. Since that's prob. your next question.

**CrazyCarl** · 08-25-12, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by stevex

CrazyCarl. Just for you buddy

Mets -1 1/2
Arizona ML

Not to hard is it? Tool

I know how to find the plays, but if you're the one taking over the plays, you should post them.. you know, before the games start.

Tool.

**Wallco99** · 08-25-12, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

Were JMD and other posters out too is more what I'm asking.

Let's see...the plays were ALL posted yesterday. The one's that lost, well..

.. we play them again. The one's that won....go ahead, see if you can guess.... that's right, we don't play them again. Maybe tomorrow, you could be one of those "other posters" that you mention, instead of waiting around for someone else to post that which should be obvious at this point in the season. stevex CLEARLY stated that he would post the plays when he had time, and would most likely be after the games started. If that isn't good enough, then go back two sentences and re-read.

signed
One Of The "other posters"