on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[GGPLAYER]

what system is that? A's usually suck, but I have to give them some credit this year; way better then expected, but im on texas well. Texas should be money all season if you manage it right.

System Integrity

[on3]

I thought plays were based on opening lines not midday or closing. Colorado opened below -145 so if they're a play then Yankees and Phillies should be as well. What's the actual method were going by for picking series because it seems like opening lines have gone out the window?

just as we can demote plays if a line starts at -150 and drops 20 cents, we can promote plays if the odds dictate. if they are fringe plays, we usually rely on the o/u filter.

[on3]

System record 41-4-0; 10-0-0; 1-0-0
Units -19; +10; +5
1 unit = $20

5/18

#46 -- ny mets @ TOR -160 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#47 -- pittsburgh @ DET -230/-115 (A) -- o/u 7 -- play RL
#48 -- cinci @ NYY -165 (A) -- o/u 9.5 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
#49 -- boston @ PHI -160 (A) -- o/u 7

Game 1 win = 25-21; 7-3
Game 2 win = 15-6; 3-0; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-4; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

50-x-x-50
50-65-67-53
85-152-126-134

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

TOR to win 50
DET to win 50
NYY to win 50
PHI to win 53

NYY to win 20

[Win89]

just as we can demote plays if a line starts at -150 and drops 20 cents, we can promote plays if the odds dictate. if they are fringe plays, we usually rely on the o/u filter.

Ok so were not holding plays solely to the opening of -145. Thanks it was a little unclear with some of the previous plays we've had but I see now.

[jturn49]

here's to another big Friday.

[on3]

Come on Phi dont mess with my sweeeeeeeep

[xgame]

sweets Friday.

[oklahoma]

[WVU9494]

Bravo from the clown that followed this thread religiously until the last 2 Fridays!!!!!!!!!

[Nino7]

And i missed both updated plays....zZz

[john360180]

Great work all the way from Sydney Australia.

[J.M. Disciple]

System record 41-4-0; 10-0-0; 1-0-0
Units -19; +10; +5
1 unit = $20

5/18

#46 -- ny mets @ TOR -160 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#47 -- pittsburgh @ DET -230/-115 (A) -- o/u 7 -- play RL
#48 -- cinci @ NYY -165 (A) -- o/u 9.5 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
#49 -- boston @ PHI -160 (A) -- o/u 7

Game 1 win = 25-21; 7-3
Game 2 win = 15-6; 3-0; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-4; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

50-x-x-50
50-65-67-53
85-152-126-134

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

TOR to win 50
DET to win 50
NYY to win 50
PHI to win 53

NYY to win 20

11.15units won today bringing the system back into the black with a nice sweep. I would still caution people with the heavy lines to lower their unit sizes until your personally in the black again.

Congrats

[eric14tsui]

Home sweep home! Thanks on3.

[on3]

see you guys monday.

System record 45-4-0; 11-0-0; 1-0-0
Units -9; +11; +5
1 unit = $20

5/19-5/20

no plays

Game 1 win = 28-21; 8-3
Game 2 win = 15-6; 3-0; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-4; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

x-x-x-x
x-65-67-x
85-152-126-134

Labby Line (filter)

x-x-x-x

[boycali01]

i missed the updated plays

[knugen]

on3, what do u mena with your units stats when you write -9; +11; +5??

[Wallco99]

11.15units won today bringing the system back into the black with a nice sweep. I would still caution people with the heavy lines to lower their unit sizes until your personally in the black again.

Congrats

You have a different idea of "black" than we do.

[Wallco99]

on3, what do u mena with your units stats when you write -9; +11; +5??

Units won/lost for non filtered, filtered, and the 5/2 is what's represented by each one of those numbers.

[knugen]

Thx wallco!

[Wallco99]

Thx wallco!

No problem. You're welcome.

[dlunc3]

JMD..

sorry to bring this up in this thread, but my pms are disabled...

is it true that atari is down approx 50 units in the past 3 weeks? what a turn around, last i had looked he was killing it..

[J.M. Disciple]

JMD..

sorry to bring this up in this thread, but my pms are disabled...

is it true that atari is down approx 50 units in the past 3 weeks? what a turn around, last i had looked he was killing it..

You asked this a couple pages back and I answered.... I dont know the aprox units down, but i would not doubt that #. We adjusted our unit sizes to half to keep from going bust. Very unfortunate season. Seems like your better off flipping a coin this season then picking some of the favorites. Just as I "promoted" him in the past I am not getting anything out of it as I said in the past so I do not hide when he loses either. The way things are going might take an entire month from today before his lines are cleared. Even then with unit sizes cut in half already will take aprox whole season to show a small profit.

so now only thing I will promote is System integrity Labby players up aprox 8 units. Chasing with that system leaves you in the negative. Last season would of been break even at best if you were chasing and labbying would of won aprox 38 units.


Hows your business going? Climbing back into the black yet?

[dlunc3]

You asked this a couple pages back and I answered.... I dont know the aprox units down, but i would not doubt that #. We adjusted our unit sizes to half to keep from going bust. Very unfortunate season. Seems like your better off flipping a coin this season then picking some of the favorites. Just as I "promoted" him in the past I am not getting anything out of it as I said in the past so I do not hide when he loses either. The way things are going might take an entire month from today before his lines are cleared. Even then with unit sizes cut in half already will take aprox whole season to show a small profit.

so now only thing I will promote is System integrity Labby players up aprox 8 units. Chasing with that system leaves you in the negative. Last season would of been break even at best if you were chasing and labbying would of won aprox 38 units.


Hows your business going? Climbing back into the black yet?

Sorry I missed your previous answer, I am not around this thread as much anymore.. But yea, im not hating by any means, bc I know he killed it in NBA and was doing well to start mlb... was just curious if it were true or not.

Like you said, a lot of poeple and systems have been getting killed so far this yr.. I was personally up 65 units at the beginning of May.. Ive now lost all of that and am trying to battle back, down 15 units right now... been ugly. Im working on trying to adapt to this odd season that has sprung upon us thusfar.

Good to see this system is making a turn for the best the last two weeks.

BOL boys

[The HOFF]

MAY 21
Orioles vs Red Sox
Yankees vs Royals
Rays vs Blue Jays
Athletics vs Angels
Mariners vs Rangers
Marlins vs Rockies
Phillies vs Nationals
Reds vs Braves
Astros vs Cubs
Brewers vs Giants
Pirates vs Mets
Cardinals vs Padres
D-Backs vs Dodgers

[on3]

System record 45-4-0; 11-0-0; 1-0-0
Units -9; +11; +5
1 unit = $20

5/21

#50 -- colorado @ MIA -165 (A) -- o/u 8
#51 -- san diego @ STL -180 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#52 -- kansas city @ NYY -167 (A) -- o/u 9.5 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
tampa bay might be a play, watch for the update.

Game 1 win = 28-21; 8-3
Game 2 win = 15-6; 3-0; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-4; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

20-20-20-20
20-50-52-20
85-152-96-74

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

MIA to win 40
STL to win 40
NYY to win 40

NYY to win 20

[abv]

I've got a management question for on3. So I was on vacation during the disastrous Boston series a few weeks back and missed those last 2 plays, saving quite a bit a cash, so my lines have been quite a bit smaller than the board's recently. The way it has worked out, as I tend to manipulate my labby the same way you do just with different numbers, my bottom line has been 50.60-77.53-75.41-80.17 where the board has 85-152-126-134. Since the bottom line has stayed the same for a while, I've only been knocking off numbers from the top two, usually playing for about 2/3 of what the board here has been playing so the x-65-67-x is x-38.92-40.12-x for me.

If I made the same moves as you, creating 6x$20 numbers from the 65,67,126,134 numbers that I have, leaving the first two numbers from the bottom line in tact, I would end up with this:

20 - 20 - 20 - 20
20-29.94-31.14-20
50.60-77.53-30.23-23.31

However if I were to take my complete labby total and divide it into the board's, then distribute proportionally, I would end up with a labby like this:

11.56-11.56-11.56-11.56
11.56-28.90-30.06-11.56
49.13-87.86-55.49-42.77

Should I just be thankful that I can play smaller for the same desired eventual winnings or have the wagers gotten small enough to where I can be aggressive and play for the same units the board does? Today for example I would be wagering to win about $90 rather than the $140 the board is if I decide to go with the second labby. Is the safer play the smart play? Thanks

[on3]

^ yes, i would maintain your lines and proceed with the same structure. it looks like youre set up well.

[darkmatter117]

Yanks-Royals O/U has dropped to 8.5. Limit would have to confirm, but I assume the backtests for 5/2 used closing lines. Just something to be aware of.

EDIT: Looks like it closed at 9, though.

[juice050]

yanks suck

[thelimit0310]

Covers has the closing O/U on the Yanks series at 8.5. They are not a 5/2 play.

[on3]

per thelimit, NYY is not a 5/2 play. but we will be playing them filtered.

System record 47-4-0; 11-0-0; 1-0-0
Units -8.5; +9.5; +5
1 unit = $20

5/22

#52 -- kansas city @ NYY -175 (B)
#53 -- minnesota @ CHW -150 (A) -- o/u 8.5

Game 1 win = 30-22; 8-4
Game 2 win = 15-6; 3-0; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-4; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

x-x-20-53
x-50-52-33
85-152-96-74

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-43

NYY to win 83
CHW to win 53

NYY to win 53

[jcygts6]

Lets go pinstripes!

[oklahoma]

Whitesox start 3game series against Twins tonight, opened at -170.

[on3]

Whitesox start 3game series against Twins tonight, opened at -170.

thanks buddy, just updated. CHW currently at -150ish

[J.M. Disciple]

Whats the best site to use for opening lines for a back test? Covers.com is all based off closing lines correct?