LTA's MLB Plays

[No coincidences]

Anyway, I love your Arizona and Miami plays today, and yes, I do think the Pirates are worth a look as well. Just my take.

[No coincidences]

-250 with a slumping Boston team is way different than -150 with the best pitcher in the NL and a guy named Kemp IMHO.

I think they're equally bankroll killing long term, but again, that's just me.

[Love The Action]

"Not a tout" Agreed.

"Thread for tracking my own plays..." It totally accept your reasons as stated.

"If you want release times...pay a tout". Totally understand.

"...your getting my plays for free...most posted the night before." I said that specifically. No need to be sensitive.

"Consequently, I really don't care about people missing plays so there's no need to post about it."

Disingenuous. You have your reasons for posting your plays to the world. Altruism is a myth. You have defended your published record in all sports many, many times against thread crashers. There is pride and ego involved with all posters, as there should be. You can only make these statements of record if they are published prior to the games beginning, which you always do. Whether you do it hours before the game or minutes is really your decision. The vast majority are well before game time.

Of course you care about posting plays in time for people to tail. Why would you make this time commitment otherwise? Of course you hoped that most people caught the Bost/Oak Under play at the end of a tough night. Aren't you the poster has responded to negative thread posters before with comments like "I don't understand, why would you hope someone else would lose a bet?" , or words to that effect? Not much difference here. The point is that you want people to win.

I have absolutely no idea if you have ever religiously tailed another capper before. I would take a guess that you have not. If you believe in someone as an intelligent, honest and talented capper, you want to be part of that effort and that community. When you invest a significant portion of your day from work and home refreshing LTA thread pages dozens of times per day in order to see if you have posted a new play ( most times there is not ), and then miss one because you only had a short window to catch it...it can be frustrating. I hope you can sympathize with that, if you have not experienced it first hand.

I know you are often trying to catch a better number...or are debating a play like the SD over bet two nights ago. I know that you are a busy man wearing many hats and are serious about fulfilling all those responsibilities. That is something I (and I'm sure others) respect about you. It is refreshing to me, at least.

You said recently when contemplating your retirement that you were not ready to leave the forum because you wanted to make us some more money. That is not the comment of a public forum capper that doesn't care about us missing plays. Otherwise, just post your plays at the end of the night and tell us why you made the play and we can learn from that, albeit not profit.

I have certainly been one of the most positive, vocal and supportive persons on your threads as I always will continue to be. It takes balls for you to place your plays up every night for the world to see and you deserve public support. Most can never do what you do...myself included. But, in my opinion, there will be times when frustration will pour over onto your pages (sometimes from you). I try to do it in the most respectful style possible and honor your efforts as I see most people here do as well.

Thanks again for all your tireless work...late nights too. You obviously require less sleep than us mere mortal humans.

BOL always.

Catchn

Nice, thoughtful post. Perhaps I should have chosen my words more carefully and as you mention I was in a very frustrated mood after my worst day of the season. I appreciate you and everyone who supports me and contributes to my threads positively. I disagree that altruism is a myth because I love to help and teach. At the same time, I want to be the best in everything I do and this business is no different. I do care and want to help people. However, there are times I am going to make last minute plays for any number of reasons. It's just a fact and there's nothing I can do about it. Should I not post the play if I make it in the last few minutes? I asked that last time this happened and everyone said I should. I completely understand frustration about not getting a winning play, but you also have to understand my frustration with hearing people (not you) bitch about anything and everything. That gets really old really quick for people like me who post plays with no ulterior motives. That's all. Thanks and good luck.

[Love The Action]

Careful on calling Morrow someone who misses a lot of bats nowadays. Swinging Strike % has gone down from 11% for his career to 8.5% this season. He came out strong last outing with 9K's through 6 IP, but that was against SEA, so tough to gauge if it was just a fluke.

Also, I've heard a few people say this in the early going (quoted from fangraphs),
"The Jays broadcaasters have spent a lot of time talking about how Jays pitchers are being encouraged to pitch to contact and get groundballs instead of Ks in order to keep pitch counts down. They want their starters to get 21 outs at all costs."

Getting outs via the GB instead of K's obviously equates to a better chances for a hit and therefore more runs. Just something to keep in mind going forward.

Other than that, I booked ARI and MIA last night, glad to see you're on it as well. Panda is supposedly doubtful for today according to @sportsinsights, so I threw another 1/2 unit on the game.
Keep up the good work.

It's still too early to make any conclusions. His swstr% is down but gb/fb is up as you mention. That is not a bad trade odd IMHO. However, I am confident that by the end of the season morrow has similar numbers for this season as compared to his career. Thanks and good luck.

[theHoneyBadger]

Im surprised the juice is this low on the birds considering how hot they've been. I like pittsburgh as well in this spot, Westbrooks peripherals are a bit shaky, while it looks as if bedard has actually been unlucky. +143 just doesnt seem like enough value

[Dexter]

Well if I'm "old school" for laying off a -150 road fave against a similar team talent-wise in a hitter's ballpark where both early and late money are on the other side and the public isn't, so be it. I'd never lay that kind of chalk on the road under those circumstances, regardless of what anything is telling me on paper. But that's just me. Good luck the rest of the night.

its not paper - its a computer program. why cant you seem to ever grasp that about how LTA makes his plays? lol

[No coincidences]

its not paper - its a computer program. why cant you seem to ever grasp that about how LTA makes his plays? lol

You know what I mean. "On paper" is referring to the same thing -- would you be more comfortable with "on screen"?

Dex, I know how many times you've questioned what an A1 or an A3 is telling you. You comment beforehand that you don't like it despite what the system says. LTA says I'm being rigid and narrow-minded because I'm walling off certain juice on certain types of plays, but can't you argue you guys are doing the same thing by being slaves to your models regardless of how "off" a given game or number seems to be?

[Dexter]

Nice, thoughtful post. Perhaps I should have chosen my words more carefully and as you mention I was in a very frustrated mood after my worst day of the season. I appreciate you and everyone who supports me and contributes to my threads positively. I disagree that altruism is a myth because I love to help and teach. At the same time, I want to be the best in everything I do and this business is no different. I do care and want to help people. However, there are times I am going to make last minute plays for any number of reasons. It's just a fact and there's nothing I can do about it. Should I not post the play if I make it in the last few minutes? I asked that last time this happened and everyone said I should. I completely understand frustration about not getting a winning play, but you also have to understand my frustration with hearing people (not you) bitch about anything and everything. That gets really old really quick for people like me who post plays with no ulterior motives. That's all. Thanks and good luck.

yup - yesterday was my worst nightmare as well. not 1 winner in bases and an A3 loss with 2 outs in the 9th.

but its a new day and the sun is shining...haha

[Dexter]

You know what I mean. "On paper" is referring to the same thing -- would you be more comfortable with "on screen"?

Dex, I know how many times you've questioned what an A1 or an A3 is telling you. You comment beforehand that you don't like it despite what the system says. LTA says I'm being rigid and narrow-minded because I'm walling off certain juice on certain types of plays, but can't you argue you guys are doing the same thing by being slaves to your models regardless of how "off" a given game or number seems to be?

im too emotional and too much of a degenerate gambler (see ncaa hoops thread) to not be a "slave" to my automated plays.

i actually didn't read all the posts back and forth between you to....if i find a few hours later i will. lol

[Love The Action]

The main problem I have here is the idea it was a +EV play based on your models. I think if you have a model indicating a -150 road fave in a hitter's park with evenly-matched teams for all intents and purposes is a +EV play, maybe it's your projections that are off. You may crunch numbers a hell of a lot more than I do LTA, but you will never convince me a play like this is +EV. And even though your bets are based in "fact" and mine are more "opinion," that doesn't mean your model doesn't have flaws or blind spots.

How you can say this is a winning bet long term -- regardless of what it says on paper -- just baffles me, but to each his own I guess. Just seems like common sense to me that if your models are pushing a play on a -150 road fave in this particular spot, you still lay off. I feel like I'm having a similar argument that I did with our buddy last season who tried to convince me laying -250 with Boston at home late in the season against Baltimore was the best and surest bet you could make. Then he chased, and Boston got swept. To borrow a phrase from paco, these are human beings we're betting on and I think common sense sometimes needs to supersede the play your computer is pushing you toward.

It seems like you dont even read my responses sometimes and keep repeating yourself over and over. No one is going to pick 100% winners nor will any model. That is impossible. My goal is to spot value and get the best prices as evidenced by beating the closer. When you do that consistently enough, you will be profitable. I am beating the closing number over 75% this season and my model has been proven to predict market movement accurately over thousands of plays. As I have said many times, I do not blindly follow my model but use that to identify value plays which then require further analysis. You mention that Colorado and LA were similar but the stats disagree with you. The Kershaw advantage was huge and you gloss over it. In addition, LA is the better offensive team against lefties as evidenced by the advanced numbers. Again, just because you don't believe value can exist at -150 or more does not make it so. I don't play -150 faves often - only a handful of times a year - but when it's Kershaw versus a scuffling rookie pitcher and a statistically better offense behind him with value spotted by my model, I am not afraid to pull the trigger. We can agree to disagree becauseit here is no point in discussing a play from yesterday that just as easily could have won as lost. Good luck on your plays today, let's hope we can get some winners on Miami and az.

[Kurtz]

Danley is behind the plate for Reds/Cubs NOT Eddings.

[Pluthero]

Does anyone else like the Pirates today? Obviously they have not fared well against the cards this year but Westbrook is due for a small regression and Bedard has been pitching well. I would like to get +155 or more and would like to see a big stl bat out of the lineup.

I don't at all. Bedard has been pitching well, but not as good as Westbrook although we probably both agree that Bedard is the much better bet long term.
I don't think the Pirates are close at all to the Cardinals in any other aspect of the game. Also, USAToday says that McCutchen will probably sit this one out to rest...so there's that.

[No coincidences]

It seems like you dont even read my responses sometimes and keep repeating yourself over and over. No one is going to pick 100% winners nor will any model. That is impossible. My goal is to spot value and get the best prices as evidenced by beating the closer. When you do that consistently enough, you will be profitable. I am beating the closing number over 75% this season and my model has been proven to predict market movement accurately over thousands of plays. As I have said many times, I do not blindly follow my model but use that to identify value plays which then require further analysis. You mention that Colorado and LA were similar but the stats disagree with you. The Kershaw advantage was huge and you gloss over it. In addition, LA is the better offensive team against lefties as evidenced by the advanced numbers. Again, just because you don't believe value can exist at -150 or more does not make it so. I don't play -150 faves often - only a handful of times a year - but when it's Kershaw versus a scuffling rookie pitcher and a statistically better offense behind him with value spotted by my model, I am not afraid to pull the trigger. We can agree to disagree becauseit here is no point in discussing a play from yesterday that just as easily could have won as lost. Good luck on your plays today, let's hope we can get some winners on Miami and az.

I don't want to keep going around and around about this particular play, but I'll just say this (because it's what caught my eye in the first place): do you or don't you think linesmakers built all of LA's "advantages" into the line? Do you or don't you think it was odd that the line barely moved off of its open if you had LA at -171? As for saying it "just as easily could have won as lost," I couldn't agree more. But we're not talking about a -110 here or even a -120. Wouldn't you rather be on the dog if the best you can say about the play is it "just as easily could have won as lost"?

Anyway, I'll let the dead dog lie now and not talk about this particular game anymore. The reason I keep bringing it up is because it seemed out of character to the plays you normally make -- that's why I asked about it so much.

[Love The Action]

Danley is behind the plate for Reds/Cubs NOT Eddings.

They must have switched out....eddings was at first yesterday. That sucks...

[Love The Action]

I don't at all. Bedard has been pitching well, but not as good as Westbrook although we probably both agree that Bedard is the much better bet long term.
I don't think the Pirates are close at all to the Cardinals in any other aspect of the game. Also, USAToday says that McCutchen will probably sit this one out to rest...so there's that.

Mccutchen is in but Beltran is out for the cards....

[Love The Action]

I don't want to keep going around and around about this particular play, but I'll just say this (because it's what caught my eye in the first place): do you or don't you think linesmakers built all of LA's "advantages" into the line? Do you or don't you think it was odd that the line barely moved off of its open if you had LA at -171? As for saying it "just as easily could have won as lost," I couldn't agree more. But we're not talking about a -110 here or even a -120. Wouldn't you rather be on the dog if the best you can say about the play is it "just as easily could have won as lost"?

Anyway, I'll let the dead dog lie now and not talk about this particular game anymore. The reason I keep bringing it up is because it seemed out of character to the plays you normally make -- that's why I asked about it so much.

Yes, but opening numbers are often inefficient otherwise your beloved line movement would not exist.

No, it went as high as -164 before dropping.

No, in the end it was closer than I thought but it was still a +ev play as evidenced by the formula I linked you to.

[Pluthero]

Mccutchen is in but Beltran is out for the cards....

Good to know. That takes it from a play on the Cards to a no play for me.

[Love The Action]

I am playing the pirates...posting now

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/3/2012

Play #1

Marlins ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

We have Anibel Sanchez facing off against Vogelsong who I continue to fade on sides and totals as I do expect his regression to continue. Sanchez is beloved by the advanced stats which is providing a nice price for a superior pitcher. I have the Marlins set at -114 giving us 7 cents of value in this spot and I am rolling with the Marlins for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cubs/Reds under (8) 1x (Locked)

Dempster going against Bailey and Dempster has dominated this Reds team throughout his career. Bailey has been up and down, but has the ability to be a solid start who has already posted 1.5 WAR type seasons. That's not bad for such a young player. The Cubs lineup is inconsistent and I expect a solid performance from both pitchers considering Eddings is the ump with his strong under lean and lifetime strike rate above 63%. I have this game set at 7.01 giving us almost a full run of value and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Blue Jays/Angels under (7) 1x (Locked)

Both Morrow and Haren have solid numbers against these lineups, with outstanding advanced numbers overall. Both guys miss a lot of bats and can also get some ground balls. I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into the game and limit the other teams' offense. I have this game set at 6 even and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't expect this one to get that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks ML (-106) 1x (Locked)

I like Kennedy in this spot over Detwiler, despite the fact that I respect what Detwiler has done so far this season. I think the D-backs lineup is set up nicely to oppose Detwiler and I expect Kennedy to be sharp. Here's another short road favorite where I think we are getting 7 to 8 cents of value as I have AZ set at -114 and I am rolling with the Diamondbacks for 1x. Good luck .

Play #5

Indians/White Sox under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the hell out of the over at 8 right now and my local move up to 8.5, albeit at -120. That is the most I will generally play for a MLB total and in this case I think it's a good move. The wind will be blowing out to the left field corner, but with both pitchers ability to get ground balls (Masterson more so than Danks), I do not expect the weather to be too much of a problem. I actually think we may see the juice on this play turn around with the under getting juiced slightly at 8 before this one closes. I have this game set at 7.19 and getting this at 8.5, albeit an expensive 8.5, makes sense as we can now cash on a total of 8 and it takes a final score of 9 to beat us. The umpire is Eric Cooper who is pretty neutral as far as O/U results but who generally has a strike rate above 63%. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Pirates (+148) 1x (Locked)

I wanted a better number but I have this set at +139 which still provides us with some nice value and I think Bedard pitches well today. This a nice spot for the bucks to steal a day game on getaway day without the red hot Beltran in the lineup. I am rolling with the pirates for 1x. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

This just in from Rotoworld, FWIW:


Pablo Sandoval was diagnosed Thursday morning with a
fractured hamate bone in his left hand.

Sandoval missed six weeks (41 games) last season with a similar injury. It's an incredibly though blow to the Giants, who already have enough trouble scoring runs and were counting on "Kung Fu Panda" for much of their offense. The 25-year-old third baseman owns a .316/.375/.537 slash line in 24 games played this year. Conor Gillaspie is expected to take his roster spot.




As if the Giants didn't need more hitting.

Unders, Unders everywhere.

[r1kkie]

Any1 else having problem to access pinnaclesports?

[LordCC]

Any1 else having problem to access pinnaclesports?

I was when I tried earlier around late morning/noon hour. I haven't had a chance to go back since, so I am not sure if it is working again.

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice hit on Cincy Under LTA.

[Brooklyn]

Any1 else having problem to access pinnaclesports?

Pinny is down for quite some time for me as well.

[ghislaine]

oh no, please don`t fight nocoin and LTA.... I don´t feel all safe and warm and snuggly anymore
You are both however absolutely ingenious !!! Keep it up LTA, I look out for Your write ups everyday in hopes of learning more.

[theHoneyBadger]

I am playing the pirates...posting now

[Catchn_Picks]

Helluva hit...ballsy indeed. Pitt as a dog on the road to STL.

[Catchn_Picks]

I have no idea how this helps anyone...just thought it was interesting...pulled this info on the W/L record of teams in their next starts after their pitcher threw a no hitter.

Plenty of pics posted on sites of Weaver and Haren drinking late in Costa Mesa after the No no.

But hell, Mickey Mantle was often drunk during the game.



LIST OF NO-HITTERS SINCE 2000

April 4, 2001	Hideo Nomo	Baltimore Orioles	3-0	W 2-1	Under
May 12, 2001	A.J. Burnett	San Diego Padres	3-0	L 10-4	Over
September 3, 2001	Bud Smith	San Diego Padres	4-0	L 6-1	Under
April 27, 2002	Derek Lowe	Tampa Bay Rays	10-0	L 3-2	Under
April 27, 2003	Kevin Millwood	San Francisco Giants	1-0	L 4-2	Under
June 11, 2003	Houston Astros Team *	New York Yankees	8-0	W 6-5	Over
May 18, 2004	Randy Johnson	Atlanta Braves	2-0	L 6-4	Over
September 6, 2006	Anibal Sanchez	Arizona Diamondbacks	2-0	L 6-2	Under
April 18, 2007	Mark Buehrle	Texas Rangers	6-0	L 6-4	Over
June 12, 2007	Justin Verlander	Milwaukee Brewers	4-0	W 3-2	Under
September 1, 2007	Clay Buchholz	Baltimore Orioles	10-0	L 3-2	Under
May 19, 2008	Jon Lester	Kansas City Royals	7-0	L 2-1	Under
September 14, 2008	Carlos Zambrano	Houston Astros	5-0	L 6-1	Under
July 10, 2009	Jonathan Sanchez	San Diego Padres	8-0	L 2-1	Under
July 23, 2009	Mark Buehrle	Tampa Bay Rays	5-0	W 4-2	Under
April 17, 2010	Ubaldo Jimenez	Atlanta Braves	4-0	L 4-2	Under
May 9, 2010	Dallas Braden	Tampa Bay Rays	4-0	L 5-4	Over
May 29, 2010	Roy Halladay	Florida Marlins	1-0	W 1-0	Under
June 25, 2010	Edwin Jackson	Tampa Bay Rays	1-0	W 5-3	Under
July 26, 2010	Matt Garza	Detroit Tigers	5-0	L 3-2	Under
May 3, 2011	Francisco Liriano	Chicago White Sox	1-0	L 3-2	Under
May 7, 2011	Justin Verlander	Toronto Blue Jays	9-0	L 3-2	Under
July 27, 2011	Ervin Santana	Cleveland Indians	3-1	L 12-0	Over
April 21, 2012	Philip Humber	Seattle Mariners	4-0	L 7-4	Over
May 2, 2012	Jered Weaver	Minnesota Twins	9-0	???	???

[SlickRick1382]

^^^

I had posted previously in Road Dog the list of results after perfect games. Interesting that after No Hitters, teams usually lose while after perfect games the results are exactly the opposite and you usually don't fade a team coming off a perfect game.


Regardless of that trend I think this no hitter was what the Angels needed from a morale stand point. The team has been struggling mightily and this may boost the clubhouse's morale for the time being.

Hopefully we can get decent value in the future on the Angels while books are adjusting them and bringing them down from the ridiculous -200 range in many games and have a good May. At least that's what I'm looking for.

[Catchn_Picks]

^^^

I had posted previously in Road Dog the list of results after perfect games. Interesting that after No Hitters, teams usually lose while after perfect games the results are exactly the opposite and you usually don't fade a team coming off a perfect game.


Regardless of that trend I think this no hitter was what the Angels needed from a morale stand point. The team has been struggling mightily and this may boost the clubhouse's morale for the time being.

Hopefully we can get decent value in the future on the Angels while books are adjusting them and bringing them down from the ridiculous -200 range in many games and have a good May. At least that's what I'm looking for.

Really well stated Rick...thanks.

[Love The Action]

Wow...2 run throwing error in the Toronto/Angels game really hurt. Come on Trumbo....

[pacocn]

Lta, nice day today

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/3/2012 Recap

4 - 2 = +2.22x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

63 - 48 - 7 = +13.07x

Good luck on Friday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/4/2012

Play #1

Brewers/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5 even giving us one run of value and it's going to take a final score of 7 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Yesterday, I was having a discussion with one of my friends who happens to be a financial planner. This is one of my very few friends who actually knows that I invest in the sports markets and we started to talk about the similarities between his managing of 401K's, other retirement funds and general stock market investments to my investments in the sports markets. He also will make occasional sports wagers so he understands the business, but does not invest seriously in sports. Throughout our discussions the similarities between the two industries were striking and just reenforces my point that we should all approach this business as though we are trading stocks or as if we were our own financial advisor.

Both investment strategies require intelligence, discipline and money management to be successful. In addition, both the sports investor and financial specialist needs to understand market principles, including but not limited to the market efficiency concepts. If people operated their sports investments just like their financial advisor operates their other investments, most would be more successful in sports markets.

Throughout our discussion, it became clear that the main obstacle in sports "gamblers" as opposed to "investors" is the degeneracy in making "action" wagers and parlay wagers which are not correlated and have no positive expected value. I pride myself on not making a play unless I have distinct and discernible edge. Likewise, in financial markets, the stock trader or hedge fund manager only makes those trades that he has researched thoroughly and feels as though has has an edge on the rest of the market. Consequently, if most people approached sports investing with this mindset, they would be much more successful.

This conversation really confirmed my belief that we should all approach this business as though we were financial experts in the stock market or similar field. To that end, I started reading a few articles on the similarities and though I would share. Here are the links for your reading pleasure. Enjoy!

http://www.thinkingbettor.com/sports-betting-efficient-market/

http://beyondthebets.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=1959

http://www.betstarter.com/SportsBetting/BettingAsInvestmentArticle.asp

http://blogmaverick.com/2004/11/27/my-new-hedge-fund/ (see even Mark Cuban agrees LOL)

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/11/ff_midas/all/1