Surprised to see you lay that kind of road juice on Kershaw at Coors, where he has a horrible track record.
-
Comment -
You are insinuating -150 is not a great price. My model has this game at -171 so getting it at -150 is a steal IMHO. The market seems to agree as well. It seems that all you are looking at is past ERA against the Rockies in colorado. However, that is irrelevant. Not only because past performance over a small sample is statistically insignificant, but also because many of the hitters from which those numbers are derived may not even be on the team today. In addition, if you look at the rockies main guys like Tulo, cargo, Helton, etc., none have fared well against Kershaw (also insignificant sample). Only fowler has hit him well. I will take Kershaw over an uninspiring rookie at a steal of a price. It might not win, but in this particular case it's a long term winner based on the market move. GLComment -
Are you suggesting that "value" cannot exist on a favorite?
The market move I reference in in regard to an expected value calculation. I have the dodgers set at -171, I bought them at -150 and they closed at -157. From an expected value standpoint, this is a long term profitable play for me regardless of the outcome.Comment -
Where did I say that? I'm not suggesting that at all. I'm saying -150 or more on the road is a risk to say the least, even with the likes of Kershaw and Verlander and especially in stadiums like Coors Field.
I'm not sure how you could have possibly had the Dodgers set at -171, but that's for you and your "models" to decide. Colorado got hit big early and small late. The "market move" in between is irrelevant given how heavy the public was on LA, and it wasn't enough of a move to be confident in beating the closer IMHO. When you beat a closing line by 7 cents with 80+% of the public on both the ML and RL, that wouldn't exactly help me feel great about my play. But that's just me. I hope the Dodgers rally for you, because I have their TT over 4.5 and they are completely being shut down.Comment -
Thanks. Good luck to you as well. I wish I was not at work and had more time for this discussion. Perhaps we can revisit later when I am not on my phone because I disagree with most of your above post. There is a new era in sports investing with the market more informed than ever. I am basing my comments on math - i.e. an expected value calculation - while you are basing your comments on opinion based off of alleged public betting percentages and antiquated line movement concepts. A little of the "new school" v. "old school" if you will. Very intersting.Comment -
Well if I'm "old school" for laying off a -150 road fave against a similar team talent-wise in a hitter's ballpark where both early and late money are on the other side and the public isn't, so be it. I'd never lay that kind of chalk on the road under those circumstances, regardless of what anything is telling me on paper. But that's just me. Good luck the rest of the night.Comment -
I think that is exactly the point LTA is making here. I think much of the public still plays on those "old school" perceptions, rather than the "new school" train of thought. Using a more statistically based and mathematical model to cap games is a much different approach than using the opinion/feeling based approach. In my mind there is room for "gut feelings" in the new approach, but in general I think it's two very distinct methods, and of you have mathematics on your side to back up your plays it's hard to argue its not a superior system. I just wanted to add some opinion to this discussion, as I'd really like to see more discussions like this one than a lot of the other crap that seems to pop up almost daily. GL to both of you.Comment -
Fair enough but there's pros and cons to every play. I could also list all the reasons why it was a good play. That's not the point though. I'm just saying that there's a revolution in sports betting that is already underway. If you listen to Chad Millman's Behind the Bets, you can hear more about how this business is evolving.
The whole idea of "fading the public" is an antiquated concept. Nowadays, more people are informed about what is going on because of the proliferation of the internet. Line movement angles are only half of the battle, because the betting percentage numbers are unverifiable and there's no way to know what is truly causing the movement. Is it caused by a syndicate or Floyd Merriweather making a million dollar wager? No one really knows except the books, so it's hard to rely on line movement alone.
I'm not knocking "old school" in any way. To me, it doesn't matter what method you use as long as you win long term. In addition, I think line movement angles are very important when deciding how to stake. I was simply pointing out the whole evolution of this business and find it interesting.
Good luck buddy
Comment -
What the hell happened to Yovani Gallardo.Comment -
i didn't mean -ve imply, u r doing great job lta. thanks for ur hard work.Comment -
Posted at 6:07 for a 6:10 start (CST). Doesn't happen too often but it sucks when you don't catch the play and it wins. LTA posts a lot of plays the night before now so you can't complain. It is impossible to catch them all, especially the late plays. I am sure the vast majority of LTA followers did not get this play in time, if that helps.
Overall, obv a tough day today but you take the good with the bad. Skimming over other winning players posting tonight on this site and others tells me that the sharps took it in the shorts tonight. SA/Utah over was a favorite sharp play.
I'm just pissed I didn't play that game over in the second half.
GLLast edited by Catchn_Picks; 05-02-12, 10:08 PM.Comment -
I have missed 3 plays in 2 days, all winners. Between this and basketball and my3 picks I am 0 for my last 11.
Comment -
I don't know why you're simplifying the argument to that. I never said this was a line movement bet, or a "fading the public" bet. I don't do that. I check public percentages, yes, but that's not the only reason I'm on a play. My reasons for not even considering the Dodgers -- or any team for that matter in this spot -- are based solely on the fact that I believe laying that kind of chalk in baseball for a road team is a losing bet long-term period -- regardless of the numbers that pointed you in the direction of taking it.Fair enough but there's pros and cons to every play. I could also list all the reasons why it was a good play. That's not the point though. I'm just saying that there's a revolution in sports betting that is already underway. If you listen to Chad Millman's Behind the Bets, you can hear more about how this business is evolving.
The whole idea of "fading the public" is an antiquated concept. Nowadays, more people are informed about what is going on because of the proliferation of the internet. Line movement angles are only half of the battle, because the betting percentage numbers are unverifiable and there's no way to know what is truly causing the movement. Is it caused by a syndicate or Floyd Merriweather making a million dollar wager? No one really knows except the books, so it's hard to rely on line movement alone.
I'm not knocking "old school" in any way. To me, it doesn't matter what method you use as long as you win long term. In addition, I think line movement angles are very important when deciding how to stake. I was simply pointing out the whole evolution of this business and find it interesting.
Good luck buddy
I simply pointed out the fact that everyone and their grandmother was on LA both ML and RL today, while early and late money obviously pointed in Colorado's direction. I don't need a site to tell me the public was on LA. But even if they weren't, I don't find any value in laying -150 or more on the road with any team in any situation -- let alone in a game at Coors Field between two teams that are obviously evenly matched for all intents and purposes.
Just wanted to clarify I'm not saying "you should take Colorado because the public is on LA." Rather, the idea that there was obviously some heavy resistance to the Dodgers -- in that, I wholeheartedly disagree that the market agreed with the play.Comment -
As I've said before, I am not a tout. This thread is for tracking my own personal plays for my own review of what I am doing right and what I am doing wrong. It is intended for my own benefit and to help others learn some things that maybe they didn't already know. If you want release times and personal notifications and all that crap, go pay a tout. Otherwise, you are getting my plays for free, more than 90% of which are posted the night before. Consequently, I really don't care about people missing plays so there's no need to post about it.Last edited by Love The Action; 05-03-12, 12:12 AM.Comment -
Lta, bol tomorrow, nice card
Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012 Recap
1 - 3 = -4.16
MLB 2012 Regular Season
59 - 46 - 7 = +10.85x
The natural ups and downs of a baseball season....good luck on Thursday.Last edited by Love The Action; 05-03-12, 01:18 AM.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/3/2012
Play #1
Marlins ML (-107) 1x (Locked)
We have Anibel Sanchez facing off against Vogelsong who I continue to fade on sides and totals as I do expect his regression to continue. Sanchez is beloved by the advanced stats which is providing a nice price for a superior pitcher. I have the Marlins set at -114 giving us 7 cents of value in this spot and I am rolling with the Marlins for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Cubs/Reds under (8) 1x (Locked)
Dempster going against Bailey and Dempster has dominated this Reds team throughout his career. Bailey has been up and down, but has the ability to be a solid start who has already posted 1.5 WAR type seasons. That's not bad for such a young player. The Cubs lineup is inconsistent and I expect a solid performance from both pitchers considering Eddings is the ump with his strong under lean and lifetime strike rate above 63%. I have this game set at 7.01 giving us almost a full run of value and requiring a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Blue Jays/Angels under (7) 1x (Locked)
Both Morrow and Haren have solid numbers against these lineups, with outstanding advanced numbers overall. Both guys miss a lot of bats and can also get some ground balls. I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into the game and limit the other teams' offense. I have this game set at 6 even and it's going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I don't expect this one to get that high and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Solid picks ltaComment -
Thx for the plays LTA..Comment -
You are missing my point and I didn't know we were having an argument. I assumed we were having a discussion about the bigger picture of the evolution of the sports betting industry, while you continue to inexplicably discuss my LA play. Again, that was a +EV play regardless of what you "believe" about laying a certain price on a road fave. You continue to base your discussion in opinion, while I am stating a fact that it was a +EV play according to the mathematical formula for expected value. http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...e-its-use.html
You seemed to take offense to me "simplifying" your previous comment as a "fading the public" strategy. Well, your comment above sure sounds like you are fading the "public".....
This statement is pure opinion, not to mention rigid and inflexible. Just because you don't believe "value" exists in a -150 road fave, does not make it so. To be so rigid and inflexible in your strategies completely forecloses yourself from potential profit. It's not like I run around betting -150 faves whether at home or on the road. My average juice paid this season on sides and totals lies below -107. However, when I see clear value on a superior pitcher, with an offense behind him that is better against lefties than the offense he is facing and it's in a spot against a rookie pitcher at Coors, well I am not going to shy away from laying -150. This is especially true when my model has that play set over 20 cents higher based on the off-the-charts pitching advantage.
Well, your comment in your second paragraph above seems to contradict the idea that you were not talking about fading the public. Regardless, however, I don't understand your comment about the "market" agreeing or disagreeing with the play. None of us have any idea what is driving the market or where the money is coming from, so there's no way to know what position the market is taking. Again, when I mentioned "market move" in my original post, I was simply referencing the fact that the market moved in my favor after I locked in the play at -150. Just because that game (a) opened at -155, (b) dropped to -148, (c) was bet all the way up to -164 and (d) closed at -157, does not indicate any huge lean in any direction. All that back and forth action was most likely arbs forcing the market up and down. Personally, I don't see how you can legitimately say that the market had a lean on this play in either direction and you may have misinterpreted my earlier comments if that is what you understood them to be about.Last edited by Love The Action; 05-03-12, 01:13 AM.Comment -
Play #4
Diamondbacks ML (-106) 1x (Locked)
I like Kennedy in this spot over Detwiler, despite the fact that I respect what Detwiler has done so far this season. I think the D-backs lineup is set up nicely to oppose Detwiler and I expect Kennedy to be sharp. Here's another short road favorite where I think we are getting 7 to 8 cents of value as I have AZ set at -114 and I am rolling with the Diamondbacks for 1x. Good luck .
Play #5
Indians/White Sox under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)
Pinny is juicing the hell out of the over at 8 right now and my local move up to 8.5, albeit at -120. That is the most I will generally play for a MLB total and in this case I think it's a good move. The wind will be blowing out to the left field corner, but with both pitchers ability to get ground balls (Masterson more so than Danks), I do not expect the weather to be too much of a problem. I actually think we may see the juice on this play turn around with the under getting juiced slightly at 8 before this one closes. I have this game set at 7.19 and getting this at 8.5, albeit an expensive 8.5, makes sense as we can now cash on a total of 8 and it takes a final score of 9 to beat us. The umpire is Eric Cooper who is pretty neutral as far as O/U results but who generally has a strike rate above 63%. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Does anyone else like the Pirates today? Obviously they have not fared well against the cards this year but Westbrook is due for a small regression and Bedard has been pitching well. I would like to get +155 or more and would like to see a big stl bat out of the lineup.Comment -
Careful on calling Morrow someone who misses a lot of bats nowadays. Swinging Strike % has gone down from 11% for his career to 8.5% this season. He came out strong last outing with 9K's through 6 IP, but that was against SEA, so tough to gauge if it was just a fluke.
Also, I've heard a few people say this in the early going (quoted from fangraphs),
"The Jays broadcaasters have spent a lot of time talking about how Jays pitchers are being encouraged to pitch to contact and get groundballs instead of Ks in order to keep pitch counts down. They want their starters to get 21 outs at all costs."
Getting outs via the GB instead of K's obviously equates to a better chances for a hit and therefore more runs. Just something to keep in mind going forward.
Other than that, I booked ARI and MIA last night, glad to see you're on it as well. Panda is supposedly doubtful for today according to @sportsinsights, so I threw another 1/2 unit on the game.
Keep up the good work.Last edited by EXhoosier10; 05-03-12, 08:42 AM.Comment -
The main problem I have here is the idea it was a +EV play based on your models. I think if you have a model indicating a -150 road fave in a hitter's park with evenly-matched teams for all intents and purposes is a +EV play, maybe it's your projections that are off. You may crunch numbers a hell of a lot more than I do LTA, but you will never convince me a play like this is +EV. And even though your bets are based in "fact" and mine are more "opinion," that doesn't mean your model doesn't have flaws or blind spots.
How you can say this is a winning bet long term -- regardless of what it says on paper -- just baffles me, but to each his own I guess. Just seems like common sense to me that if your models are pushing a play on a -150 road fave in this particular spot, you still lay off. I feel like I'm having a similar argument that I did with our buddy last season who tried to convince me laying -250 with Boston at home late in the season against Baltimore was the best and surest bet you could make. Then he chased, and Boston got swept. To borrow a phrase from paco, these are human beings we're betting on and I think common sense sometimes needs to supersede the play your computer is pushing you toward.Comment -
Don't you think if the Dodgers were the right play this would've closed a hell of a lot higher than -157 from a -155 open? Don't you think the 7 cent drop immediately after the opening number was released is worth considering, or the 4 cent drop late, given how obviously popular LA was going to be with Kershaw on the hill against a no-name rookie? If your model has this at -171, why didn't it get a heck of a lot closer to that number before first pitch to justify the number in your system?
I normally agree with most of your plays -- not that it matters much, because I'm no expert. I was just shocked to see you make this one because common sense should and would steer you away. I've honestly never seen you lay that kind of chalk on a road fave before. Do you place every bet where your model indicates value, or are you selective?Comment -
"Not a tout" Agreed.
"Thread for tracking my own plays..." It totally accept your reasons as stated.
"If you want release times...pay a tout". Totally understand.
"...your getting my plays for free...most posted the night before." I said that specifically. No need to be sensitive.
"Consequently, I really don't care about people missing plays so there's no need to post about it."
Disingenuous. You have your reasons for posting your plays to the world. Altruism is a myth. You have defended your published record in all sports many, many times against thread crashers. There is pride and ego involved with all posters, as there should be. You can only make these statements of record if they are published prior to the games beginning, which you always do. Whether you do it hours before the game or minutes is really your decision. The vast majority are well before game time.
Of course you care about posting plays in time for people to tail. Why would you make this time commitment otherwise? Of course you hoped that most people caught the Bost/Oak Under play at the end of a tough night. Aren't you the poster has responded to negative thread posters before with comments like "I don't understand, why would you hope someone else would lose a bet?" , or words to that effect? Not much difference here. The point is that you want people to win.
I have absolutely no idea if you have ever religiously tailed another capper before. I would take a guess that you have not. If you believe in someone as an intelligent, honest and talented capper, you want to be part of that effort and that community. When you invest a significant portion of your day from work and home refreshing LTA thread pages dozens of times per day in order to see if you have posted a new play ( most times there is not ), and then miss one because you only had a short window to catch it...it can be frustrating. I hope you can sympathize with that, if you have not experienced it first hand.
I know you are often trying to catch a better number...or are debating a play like the SD over bet two nights ago. I know that you are a busy man wearing many hats and are serious about fulfilling all those responsibilities. That is something I (and I'm sure others) respect about you. It is refreshing to me, at least.
You said recently when contemplating your retirement that you were not ready to leave the forum because you wanted to make us some more money. That is not the comment of a public forum capper that doesn't care about us missing plays. Otherwise, just post your plays at the end of the night and tell us why you made the play and we can learn from that, albeit not profit.
I have certainly been one of the most positive, vocal and supportive persons on your threads as I always will continue to be. It takes balls for you to place your plays up every night for the world to see and you deserve public support. Most can never do what you do...myself included. But, in my opinion, there will be times when frustration will pour over onto your pages (sometimes from you). I try to do it in the most respectful style possible and honor your efforts as I see most people here do as well.
Thanks again for all your tireless work...late nights too. You obviously require less sleep than us mere mortal humans.
BOL always.
Catchn
Last edited by Catchn_Picks; 05-03-12, 09:07 AM.Comment -
-250 with a slumping Boston team is way different than -150 with the best pitcher in the NL and a guy named Kemp IMHO.Comment
