LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

CJ Wilson on 45-50 pitch count tonight for Texas from what I am gathering.

Yep....he's only going about four innings...no play on the under for me...might actually play the angels if the price keeps dropping.

Starting to lean more and more to the a's moneyline at around -130. Good luck tonight red...please post any more player info you come across. Thanks.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. I will watch for anymore picks you pick.

[guil0000]

Thanks for the early KC play LTA. I bought 8 units because I really knew the price would climb at -106. I just bought back 7 of those at +119 on minnesota making a KC 1 unit play equivalent of +171. Now that's value

[Love The Action]

Fyi...I'm playing the redskins tonight +3.5 as my seventh and final play of nfl 2011 week 3....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1252335-ltas-nfl-plays-p11.html#post11609393

[Redscot]

Which way you lean on the total bro? On the football game that is.

[Love The Action]

Which way you lean on the total bro? On the football game that is.

No lean on the total...i don't see any value. I have it 46, which is right where the line is. I really like the Skins though because I expect this game to come down to the last possession. No matter how tough romo is he can't play all out because of the injury and that will hurt him in the two minute offense. No austin and a limited felix jones and remaining wr corp. I think the skins keep it within 3.5. I am really surprised I was able to get the hook and I just can't turn it down. GL.

[Love The Action]

Btw...no Ryan Braun for the Brewers tonight...liking that under.

[Love The Action]

Nauert the ump in houston...not bad for our under.

[No coincidences]

Nauert the ump in houston...not bad for our under.

Like that under LTA, but Garcia worries me vs. Houston.

[Trivial]

A lot of people taking over. Line is pushing the other way for the Houston game.

[Love The Action]

Like that under LTA, but Garcia worries me vs. Houston.

He's gotten hit this year, but his stats say that was an abberation. Hes only had about six ab's against each hitter...not statistically significant at all...

[No coincidences]

StL/HOU under now +102.

[No coincidences]

He's gotten hit this year, but his stats say that was an abberation. Hes only had about six ab's against each hitter...not statistically significant at all...

I just don't trust that guy in such a huge spot.

[Love The Action]

A lot of people taking over. Line is pushing the other way for the Houston game.

I didnt beat the closer, but im not particularly worried about this particular line move.

[Trivial]

I didnt beat the closer, but im not particularly worried about this particular line move.

Coolio.

[Trivial]

So I have the two picks and the NFL game UNDER. Signing off soon. Good luck to us all.

[Dexter]

Fyi...I'm playing the redskins tonight +3.5 as my seventh and final play of nfl 2011 week 3....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11609393

me to...

[Love The Action]

me to...

Let's get it

[Donnie Brasco]

Killed the royals closer better than 20 cents!

[Love The Action]

Indians/Detroit under is looking great...I just looked at the weather and it looks like all the rough stuff blew over...perhaps I jumped the gun cancelling that one. Hope anyone out there that kept it cashes

[Trivial]

I am hoping for an exact 8 score. :-)

[815Sox]

StL/HOU under now +102.

I am not seeing that at (5dimes), its at -105

Indians/Detroit under is looking great...I just looked at the weather and it looks like all the rough stuff blew over...perhaps I jumped the gun cancelling that one. Hope anyone out there that kept it cashes

The weather has been terrible all day in Northern Illinois, I wouldn't be surprised if some stuff pops up down there. BOL to everyone that kept it, I cancelled it.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/26/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2 CANCELLED

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked) CANCELLED

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Astros under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I really like the Astros +141 as well, but think the under is the safer play. The Stros have actually killed Garcia in the past, but that is small sample size that is statistically insignificant. Garcia is currently pitching as well as he has all year and with the wild card berth on the line, I expect a solid performance. Rodriguez is always solid at home with a pretty great home record over the years. Historically, his H/A splits show a significant advantage in xFIP when pitching at home. As it is, both pitchers have really good advanced stats. I have this one at 6.7 and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one drop to 7 sometime tomorrow. I think we'll see a well pitched game tomorrow and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck..

Play #4

Pirates/Brewers under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

This total has not moved at Pinny all day despite most bets on the over at about a 70% rate. Marcum has dominated the Pirates in his career and his advanced stats are solid. Morton has actually pitched well for the most part this year. This will be his last start and I'm sure he's going to do his best to put forth a nice effort. Ryan Braun is not in the lineup and he has hit Morton the best of any player on the Brewers and I think that helps our under. The Pirates lineup is pretty weak as well and I don't see them getting much off Marcum and the Brewers great bullpen. If Morton can give us a quality start, we should cash this one. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I am looking at two more plays for tonight in the 10 pm games.

[No coincidences]

Indians/Detroit under is looking great...I just looked at the weather and it looks like all the rough stuff blew over...perhaps I jumped the gun cancelling that one. Hope anyone out there that kept it cashes

4-0 in the third.

[Redscot]

4-0 in the third.

Detroit is highly motivated (possible home field 1st round) and playing free and easy.

[Trivial]

Got -120 under 8 so I took that.

[Love The Action]

Now I'm a little worried about the Cards/Astros total. It moved a bit to the over and then jumped big time right before the game....that's rarely a good sign but late money is not right every time. It's a bad bet because I got killed by the closer, but hopefully it's still a winner.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/26/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2 CANCELLED

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked) CANCELLED

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Astros under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I really like the Astros +141 as well, but think the under is the safer play. The Stros have actually killed Garcia in the past, but that is small sample size that is statistically insignificant. Garcia is currently pitching as well as he has all year and with the wild card berth on the line, I expect a solid performance. Rodriguez is always solid at home with a pretty great home record over the years. Historically, his H/A splits show a significant advantage in xFIP when pitching at home. As it is, both pitchers have really good advanced stats. I have this one at 6.7 and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one drop to 7 sometime tomorrow. I think we'll see a well pitched game tomorrow and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck..

Play #4

Pirates/Brewers under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

This total has not moved at Pinny all day despite most bets on the over at about a 70% rate. Marcum has dominated the Pirates in his career and his advanced stats are solid. Morton has actually pitched well for the most part this year. This will be his last start and I'm sure he's going to do his best to put forth a nice effort. Ryan Braun is not in the lineup and he has hit Morton the best of any player on the Brewers and I think that helps our under. The Pirates lineup is pretty weak as well and I don't see them getting much off Marcum and the Brewers great bullpen. If Morton can give us a quality start, we should cash this one. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Angels ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I just can't get over the price on this one. -117 for Haren at home is a steal and I don't care who the Angels are playing. Wilson is only going to pitch 3 innings or so, therefore it's basically the Rangers bullpen versus Haren. I expect Haren to be pumped for this game. I don't give motivational angles much weight in baseball, but in this case the Angels are fighting for their lives. Haren has pitched well against the Rangers except for the last couple outtings so it's not like he can't do it. With Wilson being limited, plus having a blister, I think the Angels are the play. When you add that you are getting Haren at -117, it almost makes the Angels a must play. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1x. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Thanks. Best of luck. Mil is not looking good but lets have faith.

[Love The Action]

Thanks. Best of luck. Mil is not looking good but lets have faith.

No...that one's over...

Marcum looks like crap...he's getting shelled...I suppose it was bound to happen considering he has pretty much shut them out over three previous games this year.

Garcia starting to struggle as well...

Definitely not the start I was looking for, but it's still early.

[Trivial]

Ya. I have won games given up before, so I hope for the same tonight.

[fly fisher]

I didn't have time to buy out of the Detroit game so I just rode it out. I was looking good, but then 5 runs in the 8th inning. Great buy back LTA. You are a wise man.

[Trivial]

Looks like the Detroit buyout was good.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/26/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2 CANCELLED

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked) CANCELLED

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Astros under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I really like the Astros +141 as well, but think the under is the safer play. The Stros have actually killed Garcia in the past, but that is small sample size that is statistically insignificant. Garcia is currently pitching as well as he has all year and with the wild card berth on the line, I expect a solid performance. Rodriguez is always solid at home with a pretty great home record over the years. Historically, his H/A splits show a significant advantage in xFIP when pitching at home. As it is, both pitchers have really good advanced stats. I have this one at 6.7 and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one drop to 7 sometime tomorrow. I think we'll see a well pitched game tomorrow and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck..

Play #4

Pirates/Brewers under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

This total has not moved at Pinny all day despite most bets on the over at about a 70% rate. Marcum has dominated the Pirates in his career and his advanced stats are solid. Morton has actually pitched well for the most part this year. This will be his last start and I'm sure he's going to do his best to put forth a nice effort. Ryan Braun is not in the lineup and he has hit Morton the best of any player on the Brewers and I think that helps our under. The Pirates lineup is pretty weak as well and I don't see them getting much off Marcum and the Brewers great bullpen. If Morton can give us a quality start, we should cash this one. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Angels ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I just can't get over the price on this one. -117 for Haren at home is a steal and I don't care who the Angels are playing. Wilson is only going to pitch 3 innings or so, therefore it's basically the Rangers bullpen versus Haren. I expect Haren to be pumped for this game. I don't give motivational angles much weight in baseball, but in this case the Angels are fighting for their lives. Haren has pitched well against the Rangers except for the last couple outtings so it's not like he can't do it. With Wilson being limited, plus having a blister, I think the Angels are the play. When you add that you are getting Haren at -117, it almost makes the Angels a must play. I'm rolling with the Angels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oakland -1 RL (-104) 1x (Locked)

I have the ML at -135 and the closer just about got there. I missed the early jump, so I'll risk the push here at limited juice.

Working on NFL and tomorrow's MLB card for the rest of tonight. Good luck.