LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/25/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked)

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[guil0000]

MLB 9/25/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Your absolutely right that line is not right. I'm hammering it and going for a middle tomorrow

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/25/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked)

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Astros under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I really like the Astros +141 as well, but think the under is the safer play. The Stros have actually killed Garcia in the past, but that is small sample size that is statistically insignificant. Garcia is currently pitching as well as he has all year and with the wild card berth on the line, I expect a solid performance. Rodriguez is always solid at home with a pretty great home record over the years. Historically, his H/A splits show a significant advantage in xFIP when pitching at home. As it is, both pitchers have really good advanced stats. I have this one at 6.7 and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one drop to 7 sometime tomorrow. I think we'll see a well pitched game tomorrow and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[fly fisher]

These are all plays for tomorrow 9/26 right?

I answered my own question. I looked over the pitchers listed to make sure they match up and they all do. Sorry.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

you the man LTA - bol

[Trivial]

I placed the bets, but I have to select starting pitchers for action. So I guess my Detroit wager might get cancelled.

[Love The Action]

I placed the bets, but I have to select starting pitchers for action. So I guess my Detroit wager might get cancelled.

Why? Both jiminez and fister are still listed. I looked for stories about fister getting limited in innings, but didnt see anything. What's up? Thanks.

[Redscot]

Mornin' LTA. I too was a little concerned about how they treat Fister tonight. Can't find anything either indicating limits, so should be good to go. NFL was pretty much a washout for me yesterday, looking forward to a big week of baseball!

Some great games from a fan standpoint going on today. I am rooting for the Cards and Tampa to make it.

If you get a chance LTA, thoughts on Pitt under 8 and Oak over 7. Have the jump on my local for these two but curious how you have them with your model bro.

[Trivial]

Why? Both jiminez and fister are still listed. I looked for stories about fister getting limited in innings, but didnt see anything. What's up? Thanks.

From your own note, "speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there.". If Leyland starts, my bet gets cancelled.

[Love The Action]

Mornin' LTA. I too was a little concerned about how they treat Fister tonight. Can't find anything either indicating limits, so should be good to go. NFL was pretty much a washout for me yesterday, looking forward to a big week of baseball!

Some great games from a fan standpoint going on today. I am rooting for the Cards and Tampa to make it.

If you get a chance LTA, thoughts on Pitt under 8 and Oak over 7. Have the jump on my local for these two but curious how you have them with your model bro.

The more I think about it, the more I think I may cancel that wager. I just looked at the weather update and it went from 30% of rain to 100% chance of rain. Leyland is not going to risk Fister in any rain delay. I rarely cancel wagers and eat the juice, but in this case it is warranted. I am trying to get plus odds on the over and possibly miss osing anything...

As far as the pirates under...i really like it. My model has 7.1. I would play it at 8, but I can only get 7.5 at the moment. I think 8 is a mistake by the book.

I still have to look at the oakland game so I can't really give you an opinion. Loooks good on its face.

Let me know if you hear anything about detriot. Bol

[Love The Action]

From your own note, "speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there.". If Leyland starts, my bet gets cancelled.

Position players...not pitchers. Pitchers need to stay on regular rotations.

[Love The Action]

Damn...i really wanted to take the tex/laa under...but I wanted it at -110 or better. Based on haren getting killed by tex in the past, I thought people would bet the over. Looks like I was wrong as the juice begins to surpass -120. That sucks...maybe we will get a move back up befire ther gsme.

[kingsr]

LTA can u clarify what the plays are for tomorrow ( considering u werre gonna cancel a play)? Cheers.

[Redscot]

Just a side note on the Tigers game. They are still battling for home field in 1st round, I believe they hold the tie-breaker over Texas, so there is motivation for the Cleveland series.

[Love The Action]

LTA can u clarify what the plays are for tomorrow ( considering u werre gonna cancel a play)? Cheers.

I am considering buying out of the cle/det under because of weather concerns. It looks like it went from 30% chance of rain to 100%. I don't play unders when weather is such a factor. If/when I cancel, I will post it. However, it is your call as to what you do. If not for the rain, I still like this play. Gl.

[kingsr]

Thanks bro Just about to watch BB s04e11!

[Love The Action]

Thanks bro Just about to watch BB s04e11!

This season has been awesome...last night was great

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/26/11

Play #1

Royals ML (-107) 1x (Locked)

I actually want to play this for more, but I'm hesitant after getting burnt playing the Royals on the road. However, we have a pretty huge pitching mismatch for a great price. I have this one at -118 for the Royals and I see this price closing around -120. Paulino dwarfs Slowey in advanced stats pretty much across the board. When you add a better lineup and comparable bullpen, as well as the hotter team, I will take that every team when the price is right. The price is right here and I'm rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2 CANCELLED

Indians/Tigers under (8) 1x (Locked)

We cashed on this matchup a couple weeks ago and we'll roll with it again. You got two guys with a WAR over 5 in Fister and over 3 in Jiminez. The Indians' lineup is banged up and speculation is that Leyland will start resting some guys here and there. The wind will be blowing in, but there is a chance of rain. I'm going to take a shot despite weather concerns and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals/Astros under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I really like the Astros +141 as well, but think the under is the safer play. The Stros have actually killed Garcia in the past, but that is small sample size that is statistically insignificant. Garcia is currently pitching as well as he has all year and with the wild card berth on the line, I expect a solid performance. Rodriguez is always solid at home with a pretty great home record over the years. Historically, his H/A splits show a significant advantage in xFIP when pitching at home. As it is, both pitchers have really good advanced stats. I have this one at 6.7 and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one drop to 7 sometime tomorrow. I think we'll see a well pitched game tomorrow and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2 CANCELLED Indians/Tigers under (8) CANCELLED by betting the over (8)(-105)(Locked)

I bet the over 8 at -105 rather than wait for even odds. This way I pay minimal juice for cancelling. This is the first time all year I had to do this, but there was a big change in the weather forecast where it went from 30% chance of rain to 100% and it will almost certainly rain tonight with delays. I do not play unders when there is 100% chance of rain as
that creates too many variables with rain delays. Its up to you guys whether you cancel. I like the under if not for the rain. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow ...the juice on the tex/laa under is at -130 and -125 at my 2 books...that's crazy. Hopefully it shifts later. I can't imagine a 6.5 total involving the rangers.

[Donnie Brasco]

Thought on nyy +190?!?! & phills/ braves over 7? Being juices & -120.

[Donnie Brasco]

Juiced at -120 i meant

[Trivial]

Position players...not pitchers. Pitchers need to stay on regular rotations.

Gotcha. Thanks

[Love The Action]

Donnie....i lean under in the braves game, but that one has weather issues too. As far as your yankee question, I would not bet against shields at home. He should have beaten the yanks in ny last week if not for his bullpen letting him down. GL in whatever you choose.

[Donnie Brasco]

What site u get weather from? Regular weather site?

[Trivial]

Thanks. So I bought out of the Detroit game also for -105.

So is it just KC ML and Astros UNDER. So 2 plays today. Thanks!

[Trivial]

Is it just the 2 for today? Will chek back later. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

Yes...only plays remaining are the royals ml and astros under. Perhaps a few more later.

Any weather sites work. I prefer wunderground for mlb.

[Donnie Brasco]

Thx. Gonna back wanndy at home, line moving his way. Good luck, looking forward to more of ur plays if u havem!

[Trivial]

Just added to my list Florida, Oakland and Texas all UNDER.

[Love The Action]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1252335-ltas-nfl-plays-p11.html#post11605835

Just posted some early week 4 nfl plays. GL.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. Any comments on my 3 picks? I think ypu said you liked one of them?

[No coincidences]

Surprised you're not on the Cubs/Pads under LTA. Seems like one of the best plays on the board.

[No coincidences]

KC ML skyrocketing LTA.

[Redscot]

CJ Wilson on 45-50 pitch count tonight for Texas from what I am gathering.

[Love The Action]

Triv - those plays look ok. I lean marlins ml and a's ml probably more than those unders, but the texas under looks good (lots of juice though).

NC - I don't really like that cubs/pads under. I know both tt's are juiced under, but latos just threw 130 pitches, coleman has pitched well of late but his advanced stats are still poor overall and its hard to trust the cubs bullpen on such a low total. My model has 7 for that one, so I don't really see the value.

Good luck on your plays guys.