LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

Don't get what? You were "feeling generous" about sharing your plays, you said "that's why they call me god" when you beat the closing numbers on every play, then you got buried.

No I didn't get buried, my expected profit was quite large from all those bets

You either win a bet or lose a bet. That is the bottom line.

You need to familiarize yourself with 2 definitions: "expected value" and "variance". If someone goes to a roulette wheel and wins $1000, it's just variance that he won. He was expected to lose, and if he stays and repeats his betting over a longer period he is guaranteed to come out a loser because each bet he makes has a negative expected value.

This is no different. With those bets I made that all beat the true close, I have positive expected value. In any given handful of games the outcome will swing wildly, but over time you will produce a profit.

As far as I can tell, you won with Tampa (maybe), pushed with your big total, lost huge on the O's when they got killed, lost huge on the Braves because of the chalk, lost on the CLE/MIN under, and you have Texas pending. We're supposed to feel graced by your presence over that? Oh I forgot: I'm simply cornering you on "isolated" plays, the way I always seem to do. That's always your response.

It'd be quite easy to lose over a span of 100s of games on edges of a couple percent

I'm sorry, but judging by what you post vs. LTA, he's a better capper. Period. Plus, he has the guts to keep track of his plays here. You can say "I'm not divulging my secrets" all you want, but I still think you're just being cryptic because you're worried days like today would be just as common as it is for everyone else and "we" couldn't call you "god" anymore.

Lol worried about a losing day. Is that serious? I've had plenty of losing weeks and losing months. I'm thrilled you think LTA is a better capper. This isn't a contest to me. What matters to me is that my account is in the black and that's it, period. I have nothing to prove to anyone I could literally care less if you think I'm the best handicapper in the world or the worst

[God1]

You got set up on that play by the books. Period.

nope I actually smoked them. My expected profit on that bet was huge

[No coincidences]

I have nothing to prove to anyone I could literally care less if you think I'm the best handicapper in the world or the worst

Oh really?

And that is why they call me god. Beat EVERY closer sometimes I even amaze myself

[God1]

I really don't know why I waste my time with a guy who bets 20 bucks a game and doesn't understand the most basic gambling concepts

[God1]

Oh really?

Indeed. I'll never understand the need for gratification from an internet message board

[God1]

The most hilarious thing about this is that you are jumping on the wrong part of the variance. You are concerned about the outcome. I actually was on the right side of the variance that mattered, I got lucky but you missed out on where. Beating the true close 5 for 5? That is lucky. And beating 2 of them by 20 cents. That doesn't happen everyday

[No coincidences]

nope I actually smoked them. My expected profit on that bet was huge

Books moved the line to lure in "sharps" who were going against the public bettors that saw Weaver and thought there was no way the Angels would get swept. No true "sharp" put enough money on Baltimore to move the line over 40 cents in their direction.

You keep thinking books are on the level and that you "smoked" them because the market dictated the 40-plus cent swing -- it was a set up.

[Love The Action]

At the end of the day, making profit is all that matters. However, after you place a wager, if the line moves against you, that is a bad wager and if the line moves with you, that is a good wager. We can't control what goes on with the players on the field, but we can control getting a the best price available. As long as you beat the market, you will be a long term winner (assuming proper money management).

I wish everyone would post their plays so we can all learn from each other. But there is no capping contests. It's all about getting better each and every day at what we do and learning as much as possible about our craft.

[No coincidences]

Indeed. I'll never understand the need for gratification from an internet message board

You're right: the constant chest thumping and multiple screen names saying otherwise speaks to the contrary. Good point.

[No coincidences]

At the end of the day, making profit is all that matters. However, after you place a wager, if the line moves against you, that is a bad wager and if the line moves with you, that is a good wager. We can't control what goes on with the players on the field, but we can control getting a the best price available. As long as you beat the market, you will be a long term winner (assuming proper money management).

I wish everyone would post their plays so we can all learn from each other. But there is no capping contests. It's all about getting better each and every day at what we do and learning as much as possible about our craft.

You were 110% correct in questioning his plays on the O's and the Braves. There was no "value" in either one. The 40-plus cent line move in favor of Baltimore wasn't real. It was a head fake by the books so that "sharps" like God could brag about how they killed the closing number but got killed in the process.

As for Atlanta at -184, well, that speaks for itself and the fact that he claims there was "value" there makes me wonder if he's either A) stubborn or B) delusional.

[God1]

Books moved the line to lure in "sharps" who were going against the public bettors that saw Weaver and thought there was no way the Angels would get swept. No true "sharp" put enough money on Baltimore to move the line over 40 cents in their direction.

You keep thinking books are on the level and that you "smoked" them because the market dictated the 40-plus cent swing -- it was a set up.

lol. do you also think the jews were behind 9/11? or that we didn't land on the moon?

You can believe whatever you want I beat the true close by 20 cents. The books could be doing whatever the hell they want to get the final number that doesn't change the fact that beating the true close by 20 cents results in a large profit

[God1]

You were 110% correct in questioning his plays on the O's and the Braves. There was no "value" in either one. The 40-plus cent line move in favor of Baltimore wasn't real. It was a head fake by the books so that "sharps" like God could brag about how they killed the closing number but got killed in the process.

As for Atlanta at -184, well, that speaks for itself and the fact that he claims there was "value" there makes me wonder if he's either A) stubborn or B) delusional.

I'm done arguing with someone who bets 20 bucks on games and has a 1st grade understanding of how sports betting works

Have fun picking your winners and losing to the vig

[No coincidences]

lol. do you also think the jews were behind 9/11? or that we didn't land on the moon?

Nope. You're the one who's naive if you think oddsmakers are always on the level. Either that, or you're too embarrassed to admit you got set up and suckered into a bad play. You've been around long enough to know the 40 cent line move should've told you that. How often do those actually cash?

You can believe whatever you want I beat the true close by 20 cents. The books could be doing whatever the hell they want to get the final number that doesn't change the fact that beating the true close by 20 cents results in a large profit

I would love to see proof of that, but as usual, you won't be able to provide it.

[God1]

Nope. You're the one who's naive if you think oddsmakers are always on the level. Either that, or you're too embarrassed to admit you got set up and suckered into a bad play. You've been around long enough to know the 40 cent line move should've told you that. How often do those actually cash?



I would love to see proof of that, but as usual, you won't be able to provide it.

oh wow. I didn't think you could possibly say anything more ignorant but this one is it. The proof is that the books are still in business lol. I guess it really doesn't surprise me that you don't understand that

[No coincidences]

I'm done arguing with someone who bets 20 bucks on games and has a 1st grade understanding of how sports betting works

Have fun picking your winners and losing to the vig

You just don't impress me. I don't think you're any better than a lot of guys around here record-wise or profit-wise. I'm sorry if that offends you and causes you to insult me, but it is what it is and you obviously aren't going to change.

"That's why they call me god."

[No coincidences]

oh wow. I didn't think you could possibly say anything more ignorant but this one is it. The proof is that the books are still in business lol. I guess it really doesn't surprise me that you don't understand that

I've beaten the true close by more than 20 cents a lot this year in baseball. Truth be told, it's no different profit wise than any other play.

Again, if you can prove me wrong with actual statistics, I'd love to see it.

[God1]

I've beaten the true close by more than 20 cents a lot this year in baseball. Truth be told, it's no different profit wise than any other play.

Again, if you can prove me wrong with actual statistics, I'd love to see it.

dude, the proof is that the books are still in business. it's pretty hilarious that you don't understand this

Is this guy really trying to argue that pinnacle closes are extremely inefficient lol

[No coincidences]

oh wow. I didn't think you could possibly say anything more ignorant but this one is it. The proof is that the books are still in business lol. I guess it really doesn't surprise me that you don't understand that

The books are "in business" by gobbling up sharp and public money alike and balancing it out as much as possible. They're "in business" because you made a huge bet on Baltimore today and got buried accordingly.

While you were patting yourself on the back for beating the true close by over 40 cents, the books were counting your cash.

[No coincidences]

dude, the proof is that the books are still in business. it's pretty hilarious that you don't understand this

They wouldn't be "in business" if they were only taking and trapping small-time public money. I'm assuming you are -- or at least think you are -- the opposite of that. Well congratulations. Here's your Baltimore guillotine.

[God1]

LTA has just got to be shaking his head at this. Asking for proof that beating the true close is profitable

[God1]

That baltimore bet was one of the best bets I've made this month bud. Have fun betting your 20 bucks a game and losing

[No coincidences]

LTA has just got to be shaking his head at this. Asking for proof that beating the true close is profitable

I'm not saying that beating the true close isn't important. It absolutely is.

The fact that you think you made the bet of the month by beating a true close in a game that swung 40 cents makes me question your ability to reason logically. Take a step back and think for a minute on that one. You honestly think sharp money moved the ML 40 cents at one point in the O's favor because they wanted to be on Baltimore?

One of two things happened: 1) either you believe the books are on the level and a "real" sharp bet the O's down to +144, then started hammering the Angels at a much better price, or the books swung the line in one direction to get people believing they were making a "sharp" bet by taking Baltimore.

Either way, you don't pat yourself on the back when you take a team that opens at +184, drops to +144 and closes at +161. Again, think about it.

[Redscot]

This is good shit fella's. I learn from these debates. Wish you both success

[No coincidences]

This is good shit fella's. I learn from these debates. Wish you both success

I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I know if I bet a team at +184, the line plummets 40 cents, then increases 17 cents before close, I'm not saying it's the best bet I've made all week. There's something not right about that kind of movement: either on the level or trap-wise.

[Redscot]

I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I know if I bet a team at +184, the line plummets 40 cents, then increases 17 cents before close, I'm not saying it's the best bet I've made all week. There's something not right about that kind of movement: either on the level or trap-wise.

That definitely stands to reason. I am a relative neophyte in line reading/analyzing so I absorb all this. Always looking to gain more knowledge on the betting angles.

As a side I have been experimenting with just beating the non-juiced closer (Pinny) the last week or so, with mixed results. I have the advantage of a slow moving book and have played 40 plays in this time frame and beaten the closer on 34 of them. Has been pretty much break even, partly because my book compensates for his slow ass by heavy juice. Gonna keep tracking and see what happens.....

[Love The Action]

I expect the Cards/Philly under to start dropping in price over the next hour and close at -110 or more...GL

[Blackroc78]

i want to get some action on tonight game, what are your thoughts? anyone for the cards?

[Love The Action]

i want to get some action on tonight game, what are your thoughts? anyone for the cards?

Look above...I'm on the under for 5x...one of my biggest plays this year....GL

[Blackroc78]

Ah, my mistake! thx

[Blackroc78]

BOL to you

[Love The Action]

BOL to you

You too!

[italianbandit]

Buying a team at +185 and waking up to a -150 on the other side is a goldmine regardless of the outcome. If you played this for a dime then you have the option of buying the other side for a big profit.

[No coincidences]

Buying a team at +185 and waking up to a -150 on the other side is a goldmine regardless of the outcome. If you played this for a dime then you have the option of buying the other side for a big profit.

That's exactly what someone did.

Bought the O's line down, then hammered the Angels at a more reasonable price.

[God1]

That's exactly what someone did.

Bought the O's line down, then hammered the Angels at a more reasonable price.

[No coincidences]

What was the final score again?