was wondering if it was 6.5 like it is now haow many units would you have put on the under?
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What up my friend??Hey I know your not chasin....seen you post the night before next days games!!!!!Breaking Bad night bud!!!!!!Whooooyaaaa......Go gettem Im with ya on picks!!!!
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Watch fellas, history repeats itself today. LTA bounces back in fashion. Yesterday was a pretty bad day for everyone. I chit the bed going 1-10...ouch.
Baby steps get it back 1 game at a time
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Had a great, if not profitable, night at the cottage yesterday. Just got home...we have a few more plays left to make today, although, no huge ones like this afternoon's SD/Philly under play. I have had that game circled on the calendar for a few days. First, I love Stauffer. He is quietly having an excellent season. Then we have Doc Halladay, coming off a start where he only threw a few innings because of the heat. I expect Doc should be at his best today. As we all know, neither offense is that good, but both teams play solid D and SD has a great bullpen. I think this one is a low scoring, close game. I love both pitchers and getting 7 runs is perfect. This was only a 1x or 2x at most play at 6.5. But when I got 7 at the open, I had to jump on it at 6x.
For those of you that have followed my threads, you know I never chase. This play would have been a 6x play whether I had swept the board yesterday or drew blanks like I did.
Nothing I can do about yesterday's card...I would make each of those plays again -- especially the SD play. I will respond to the Homo's post about Philly having an easy win, however, if he watched the game he would know that was untrue. SD was winning in the 8th inning, so I don't know how that could be defined as an easy game. However, it's no big deal to me. That was ONLY a 1.25x play.
Today's under is much more important. Oh well, whatever, some people just don't get it...
Back to today's games. A few more plays to come...here we go.
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absolutely right. lost 5+ units yesterday,
but I was up 4.85 on the week, so it didn't hurt
all that bad. let's get 'em today, LTA. good luck!Comment -
Hey guys, I've been away the last couple of days but back now. See you had a tough 5u loss day yesterday LT but hope you get it back on the under in the Philly game today. Good luck everyone !Comment -
Looks like Philly came to hit and Stauffer does not have his good stuff today. The only downside to this play was Stauffer's poor performance against Philly over a very small sample size. However, it looks like that trend is playing out again. Hopefully, we get a miracle here. However, if not, I am not worried or on tilt or anything like that. I simply go back to the drawing board, stick to my process and stay consistent. July has been a very tough month. However, I still remain over 20 games over .500 on the season with a profit exceeding 20x. These last couple days is not the end of the world...it's just a reality of sports investing. Everyone goes through some tough periods, it's unavoidable. It's how you react that sets you apart from the pack. I stay consistent day in and day out, follow the same capping process everyday and just make my plays. I have proven myself as profitable over the long term, so I know that my consistency will lead to positive units by the end of the season. July has sucked, but it's not over yet and we have three more months to the season. I love the challenge of sports investing and I'm ready to charge full steam ahead and take the challenge of daily capping that Baseball requires. I love it...Comment -
Tony Robbins how are you staying consistent when you play everything for 1 and 2 units and then play a game for 6 units. Your record may be over .500 but your money management/units played per game isn't. No bets if your doing this to make money should be valued that much higher than any other 1. Maybe 2 units max, but 6, really.
It looks like a chase after a bad day, whether it is or not. Just reading the thread, it does.Comment -
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That fuckin homo came in here and jinxed bets!!!!!!!!!!!Go watch gay porn and post your shit in homo room!!!!!Comment -
there is lots of variance in these games right now...making it very difficult to win
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You are wrong, sir. I have made numerous bets over 5x throughout the season, so I do not play everything for 1x to 2x. Please do not make ignorant statements about things you do not know. My scale ranges from 1x to 10x. In fact, that was the 18th play of the season 5x of over. I am currently 10 - 8 in those games now.
Futhermore, if you read the thread, I stated on Saturday morning, before all of the games, that I was making that big play in the Philly game on Sunday. You cannot chase losses when you commit to making a play before the losses occur.
Say what you want...the truth is the truth. Your weak-minded and feeble attempts at getting a rise out of me willl not work.Last edited by Love The Action; 07-24-11, 03:02 PM.Comment -
So if you go 1-1 today you lose -5.9 units. That's great money management. Even a weak mind like me can see that.Comment -
This house is filled up with jaded folks. Continue to do what you do best Lta.
I'm about to give up on this house and go join this other forum.
I can't even use this forum as a recreational area for me. Recreational, like a facebook, all recreational.
Why so serious folks?Comment -
A. I did not say you have a weak mind, I said your weak-minded and feeble attempts will not rattle me.
B. Thanks for the math lesson; and if I went 1-1, with a win on the Philly under, I would have been +5x. What is your point?
I agree that the key to sports investing is money management. However, the key to money management, in my opinion, is placing a higher unit stake on games where there is such +EV based on the factors that you weigh in order to most efficiently and effectively increase your ROI.
Each game is different. However, if I have ten of my criteria satisfied in one play and only 5 of those satisfied in another, I am not going to play those at the same stake because that would needlessly limit my potential profit. The play that has satisfied the most amount of my capping factors and criteria, above and beyond the filters that make it a play to begin with, gets the biggest stake in my MM scheme. Today, that play was the Phillies under -- which only missed by one run due to some early scoring. No big deal, I just move onto the next play and wait to search out my next big 5x+ play.
My plays 5x and above are rare and I only have made 18 of such plays out of over 500 plays this MLB season so far. Generally, in basketball for example, I have won 60% or more of my high staked wagers. This allows me to capitalize as much as possible on my initial investment. Plus, I am in no danger of being unprofitable any time soon. I have more than doubled my original BR investment of 100x since last October in all sports (most documented right here on SBR). Therefore, I have no problem playing aggressively where I believe there is such positive expected value that aggressive play is warranted.
If you simply flat bet, you are limiting your potential profit. Yes, you also limit your risk, however, I am not in a situation where I need to limit my risk. I am in a very comfortable position, both as far as my overall BR and my MLB record.
Finally, my plays are for me and for no one else. I post on here in order to help out as much as I can, however, I do not ask that people tail me or follow my unit stakes. My wagers are strategically made to maximize my own BR. I am not a wannabe TOUT, unlike some people on here who try to tout their website or wannabe service, so I really don't care if people tail, fade, criticize or whatever. I have proven to be profitable in all sports over a large sample size and despite this horrible month of July, I will continue to pick winners more than I pick losers. I wonder if you can say the same...Comment -
No worries Brosuf...I think most on here, and especially in my threads, are generally positive posters.
I have no intentions of stopping to do what I do best. It's human nature, everyone loves you when you are picking winners and hates you when you are struggling. All I know is that, based on my history, I will not struggle forever. I have been profitable for for 7 out 10 months since October. I was due for a down month. However, I am now due for a kick-ass month and have no doubts that hot streak is right around the corner.
I hope you decide to stay at SBR. I find you to be on the funniest posters on the forum and I appreciate your contribution. Good luck in the future
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Good luck with the plays. We firmly agree to disagree on how to bet each game. Which is fine it's a free country.Comment -
LTA, Little tip...
When the haters come in (Which have been few and far between a testament to your success) just reply :
"Thanks for your post, Good luck to you too"
This way your both 1.Ignoring them and 2. Killing them with kindness....
Trust me they will disappear cos they dont get the attention they seek.Comment -
Its too easy to be a keyboard tough guy when you have 0 credit. LTA brush em off. Dont allow idiots to rent space in your mind. Those who read your posts and whether or not they are agreed they are guaranteed to be a daily read.Comment -
Thanks guys..
Colorado is down 3-0. However, I took the Rockies here because Owings is a long reliever and is not stretched out enough to pitch into the late innings. This leaves the game to the AZ bullpen who is struggling a bit at the moment. The available guys in AZ's bullpen are at a 6+ERA in their last five games. Plus, they have gotten a little more work than normal lately. I made the Rockies the -1RL play because I expected Jiminez to keep the game close on the road and then the Rockies to score in the late innings against the AZ bullpen. Let's see if the Rockies come back to reward our faith in them...GLComment -
Just got in and see you have some nice things going this afternoon. Was on ya with the KC under, we should have had it yesterday too! Jimenez surprised me today, he had been turning it around.
Keep up the good work my man, the hater's only show up where they smell success
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Leaning Braves and the under in the late TV game.
Small under lean in the Texas game, but I have not checked out the "wind tunnel" effect yet...Comment -
Late steam on the Braves...I may make that a 0.50x play before gametime.Comment -
MLB Recap
7/23/11
0 - 5 - 1 = -6.1x
7/24/11
4 - 2 = - 3.6x
MLB Season 2011
293 - 272 = +18.44x
Geez...the end of July can't come soon enough. Let's end July on a high note. Good luck to everyone this week!Comment -
Cincinnati was the right pick, props on those who bet on them.Comment -
I need to review this game more deeply, but the Angels are looking like a solid play on the ML.
The under in NY/Seattle looks interesting, despite Vargas' recent struggles (probably a no play though because of the Yanks success against lefties). I never lay -200, but this Yankee game intrigues me. Perhaps we go with a -1RL play with that one. I believe the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years.
The over in TB/Oakland intrigues me with both pitchers having a nice WHIP and ERA, but poor FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA.
Just some early thoughts...we'll get back to it tomorrow morning.Comment -
just wondering... Seattle has lost ALOT of games, yes, they suck. They certainly aren't due for a win... but they can't go on losing forever. They had a couple of good nights with the bats, while the pitching has gone downwards... isn't it better to lay off SEA.... especially with NYY bats struggling??Comment -
I really like the under NYY/SEA game and will probably play it as 1 of my 2 game parlay, which will also have the under in the NYN/CIN. Both Will be Under 8.5. I will wait till my morning post as I need a couple more updated stats yet before locking it in. GL LTAComment -
good luck LTA... stilll good to be + units at this point!Comment -
Good luck LTA, I hope you get back to cashing winners today. These losing streaks are tough to deal with, but like you say it's about consistency - your hard wok will start paying off again soon.
Leaning Angels too, let's get this one!
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New week on the slate LTA, do your thing. BOL.
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