New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**Formulawiz** · 06-29-11, 08:36 AM

ML plays today. Fav must be < -140

MIN, SD?, LAA?, STL?,

**Enkhbat** · 06-29-11, 09:57 AM

Why the question marks Formulawiz? what does it mean?

**Small Timer** · 06-29-11, 10:16 AM

Lots of plays again today on BPR, hopefully a better day. BOL

**Tommygunn** · 06-29-11, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Filters; I have been using with P/T

IP: Less then a differential of 20IP to be considered play.
P-Power 20pts Higher
T-Power 100pts Higher
Pitch-DF Lower
Team- DF Lower
PR-Runs?
No Play if > -150

Take a look at LAA today,
IP Diff <-20
P-Power >+20
T-Power >+100
Pitch-DF And Team DF Even but PR Runs
favor LAA at 0, so I made LAA a play today.

SFG, is a perfect P/T Play today, all the # are in line.

NYM, if the Pitch-DF were higher, I would drop the NYM today,
due to the fact that the PR-Runs, doesn’t favor the NYM.
BOL

So all of these parameters need to be in line too???

Pitch-DF Lower
Team- DF Lower
PR-Runs? Lower

Thats not what the sportrends page says. the sportrends page says as long as you have a 20 point P overlap and a 100 point T overlap it's a play. If only a 20 P overlap then only a half unit play.

**Tommygunn** · 06-29-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Why the question marks Formulawiz? what does it mean?

You have to watch the line. you must have a 25 cent diff from the sportrends proj. line and not be >-140. he puts the question marks next to those teams that are close to not having a 25 overlay or are close to >-140

**barts185** · 06-29-11, 11:56 AM

Is there a typo in the free play today?

Take San Diego W/Stauffer over Kansas City W/Chen NO PLAY if COL < -145

Should it be that San Diego has to be -145 or worse?

**joeytunes** · 06-29-11, 12:15 PM

Sa????

**Formulawiz** · 06-29-11, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Why the question marks Formulawiz? what does it mean?

It means right now not a play. Must wait to see the ML before start of game.

**Tommygunn** · 06-29-11, 02:18 PM

Brew SA??

**BrewMaster** · 06-29-11, 02:48 PM

Guys, sorry I've been in meetings all day again. Something critical has come up in my company and I may not have the time to dedicate to SA over the next couple days. If someone could post the SA plays, I can track it and update the record/units when I find time at home.

**gryfyn1** · 06-29-11, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Guys, sorry I've been in meetings all day again. Something critical has come up in my company and I may not have the time to dedicate to SA over the next couple days. If someone could post the SA plays, I can track it and update the record/units when I find time at home.

Im not positive, but it looks like the plays are

NYM (+108 or better)
Phi (-150 or better, max odds for filter)
Pit (+121 or better)
SF (-150 or better, max odds for filter)
Tex (-150 or better, max odds for filter)

i aslo see KC(EV or better) and Cle (max) as plays but they've already started, any able to check these results

**BrewMaster** · 06-29-11, 07:15 PM

Scientific Approach 29Jun11:

CLE- 173
STL, -246
PHI, -232
SF, -169 (NP >-144)
TEX, -172 (NP >-147)
OAK, -137 (NP >-112)

Filtered (KC, WAS, MLW, CWS)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

Will update record and units when I can. Sorry I couldn't get this out today guys.

**gryfyn1** · 06-29-11, 07:23 PM

just out of curiosity, why did you not include the Mets and the Pirates?

**agos** · 06-30-11, 03:54 AM

best of luck today !!

**Formulawiz** · 06-30-11, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by barts185

Is there a typo in the free play today?

Take San Diego W/Stauffer over Kansas City W/Chen NO PLAY if COL < -145

Should it be that San Diego has to be -145 or worse?

The play was SD yesterday. COL was obviously an error

**Formulawiz** · 06-30-11, 05:06 AM

ML system went 3-0, +3 units

YTD 74-40, 24.65 units

**ShivaBowl** · 06-30-11, 06:14 AM

06/29/11
TPR system 0-0
No Plays Yesterday
Start Date 05/01
57-68 –14.73u

H/A system 1-0
Start Date 05/29
37-24 +8.69u

P/T Power Plays 2-1
Start Date 06/12
16-13 +2.94
Working

**ShivaBowl** · 06-30-11, 06:38 AM

TPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
TOR 1.2
BOS 1.7 No Play Bos L/2

H/A System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PHI
CWS

P/T Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PHI
SFO
CWS

S/A Plays
PHI, No Play if PHI > -127
SFO, No Play if SFO > -112
CWS, No Play if CWS > -104
STL, No Play if STL > -277
PIT, No Play if PIT > -211
TEX, No Play if TEX > -169

**Formulawiz** · 06-30-11, 06:58 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

TOR

**ShivaBowl** · 06-30-11, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

So all of these parameters need to be in line too??? Pitch-DF Lower Team- DF Lower PR-Runs? Lower Thats not what the sportrends page says. the sportrends page says as long as you have a 20 point P overlap and a 100 point T overlap it's a play. If only a 20 P overlap then only a half unit play.

Thanks anyway TomG,
BOL

**BrewMaster** · 06-30-11, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by gryfyn1

just out of curiosity, why did you not include the Mets and the Pirates?

They were not a negative value which is a criteria to have for an SA system play.

**BrewMaster** · 06-30-11, 08:29 AM

Record and units to be updated later today.

Scientific Approach 30Jun11:

STL, -302
PIT, -236
TEX, -194

Filtered ()
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**HoulihansTX** · 06-30-11, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

[COLOR=#4b0082] Units Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall (132-114)54% +14.45 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 29
Bullpen Projection System

Cleve 5.62 W (+100)
Atl 4.66 W (+140)
Cincy 4.60 W (+160)
Yanks 4,18 W (-145)
Balty 3.76 L (+115)
Dodgers 3.39 L (+135)
SF 3.21 L (-130)
Philly 1.85 W (-110)
TX 1.63 W (-130)
Oak 1.47 L (-110)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(138-118)54% +17.05 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 30
Bullpen Projection System

CWS 3.90
Philly 1.48
Toronto 1.46

No Play
Balty np L2 5.65
Oak np >-150 1.51
Houston np L2 1.03

**ShivaBowl** · 06-30-11, 10:27 AM

What is going on in here? Why aren't we posting, all the line plays? Why aren't the line plays being posted correctly?
I should not have to do the M/L System and the S/A system.
We are using Sportrends Systems why cant we post the line plays using Sportrends format?
EX: No Play If <+->
I am putting 100% in to this thread and you should be doing the same, half ass is unexceptionable.
Please post all the plays and let us worry about the published money line and your 140 ,150 filters.
Thanks

**Tommygunn** · 06-30-11, 11:14 AM

Complimentary Selection for 6/30/2011

Take St Louis W/Garcia over Baltimore W/Matusz NO PLAY if BAL < -110

**Tommygunn** · 06-30-11, 11:18 AM

Why are Brew and Shiva's SA Approach plays different???

**joeytunes** · 06-30-11, 11:39 AM

i agree shiva

**joeytunes** · 06-30-11, 11:40 AM

its a great thread lets keep it

**BrewMaster** · 06-30-11, 04:23 PM

Sorry guys, I made a mistake. It's PIT that's the play, not TOR. My mistake.

I leave out the plays like CWS, SF and PHI because their lines are not close to their required criteria. If you check the closing lines for all 3 of those plays, you'll see that Shiva's filter thereafter would all deem them NO PLAYS. I do this to simplify the list but I can certainly post them if the ST guys want me to (Shiva, Formulawiz, Houli).

Again, PIT is the play. Not TOR.

**Tommygunn** · 06-30-11, 04:42 PM

Thanks for the clarification Brew.

**Mr.Carrot** · 07-01-11, 07:14 AM

Just a quick ask if sportrends write

Take St Louis W/Garcia over Baltimore W/Matusz NO PLAY if BAL < -110

it is a play on St.Louis or on Baltimore? I still dont understand well, if ...take XXX over YYY... means play on XXX or not :-)

**barts185** · 07-01-11, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by Mr.Carrot

Just a quick ask if sportrends write

Take St Louis W/Garcia over Baltimore W/Matusz NO PLAY if BAL < -110

it is a play on St.Louis or on Baltimore? I still dont understand well, if ...take XXX over YYY... means play on XXX or not :-)

Take XXX over YYY means the play is on XXX.

The line parameter is different and can sometimes be on the team you're playing on, and sometimes be on the other team.

In this case, the play is on STL, but is not a play if BAL is better than -110. This one seemed odd since BAL was a dog all day.

But take today's as another example.

Take Florida W/Sanchez over Texas W/Ogando NO PLAY if TEX < -175

The play is on FLA as long as TEX is not better than -175.

I'm presuming you are already aware of the way the < and > symbols are used, which is not mathematically correct and instead have their own meanings. For example, today, it's not a play if TEX is better than -175 (so -174 is not a play, -176 is a play) while if you read it as a math symbol, it would mean the opposite.

**Mr.Carrot** · 07-01-11, 08:31 AM

Thanks Bart, I played on the team with the line parameter until yesterday, so I had about 10 winners in a row :-D
Yesterday I was surprised that play should was on Balti so I skipped :-)

I dont care about NO PLAY if..., I always play the game used labourache :-)

**Formulawiz** · 07-01-11, 08:37 AM

NO ML plays yesterday.
YTD 74-40, 24.65 units

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

TOR -130 to -140
CWS -125 to -140

**HoulihansTX** · 07-01-11, 09:11 AM

Hey guys I'm having computer trouble. I'm going to have to post the plays around 9am.