System Integrity 2011

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  • GGPLAYER
    SBR MVP
    • 03-26-09
    • 2981

    #491
    Originally posted by slapshot
    there are different variations of this system out there.

    i will play this chase system with these criteria

    * pick the biggest favorite of the day, play them -1
    * minimum of 3 games per day
    * if race for the biggest favorite is a tie….pick game with highest total
    * pinnacle opening lines are used to select the game

    i have researched the last five seasons....to avoid losing streaks is by far the most important thing in playing any system..including this one.

    longest losing streaks based on the criteria above:
    2006 - 5 games
    2007 - 5 games
    2008 - 3 games
    2009 - 5 games
    2010 - 4 games

    my research hasn't indicated that the system is less successful at the start of the season then other periods of the season so the plays starts today.

    if anyone is playing the system differently...feel free to post your strategy.

    Just went back and based on what slapshot posted when he opened this thread I would definitly say Clev is the play tonight.
    Comment
    • allenc85
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-26-10
      • 403

      #492
      I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?
      Comment
      • GGPLAYER
        SBR MVP
        • 03-26-09
        • 2981

        #493
        ^^ Interesting point and great question. I'm still betting Clev though.
        Comment
        • honeyeater
          Restricted User
          • 01-20-11
          • 253

          #494
          Originally posted by allenc85
          I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?
          I know mean and it makes sense- The issue is Slapshot takes each bet individually. As for me this would be my 2nd and I went big on 1 because it was the 4th. So if I sit it out and the fav wins then I start at 1 waiting for 3 loses again. The Indians ARE the 2nd fav but I like the idea of back testing and seeing the odds. I may split it. I really think Slapshots work is great but I have no idea where he got KC?
          Comment
          • soldier1047
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-26-10
            • 332

            #495
            If you do 2nd highest, stick with 2nd highest tomorrow. Some player do this as a seperate chase-chasing both highest and 2nd highest ML. Maybe find out what G1, G2, G3, etc...for this 2nd highest chase?
            Comment
            • slapshot
              SBR MVP
              • 10-27-07
              • 1194

              #496
              cleveland is the second biggest favorite now when i check the lines now again......again, cleveland is the second biggest favorite of nite and for me it's either the biggest fav or nothing at all.....i see it like this, st louis is still the biggest fav of the day but the change to their line-up ruled them out as a play today.

              i suppose this criteria could be added to "the rules" of the systems...."no changes to the line-ups (pitching) after line openings for a game to qualify"

              this is just my take and how i will keep the record here...........it's up to yourself to make up your mind about what your most comfortable with.
              Comment
              • slapshot
                SBR MVP
                • 10-27-07
                • 1194

                #497
                Originally posted by allenc85
                I see that KC opened at -113 and Cleveland at -130, both from Pinnacle... My question is if you were to look at this next year, wouldn't you still see the STL opened as the highest favorite, therefore would back test it playing STL?
                from a back testing point of view....st louis would have been the recorded team and it's flaw impossible to detect in the back testing i have from past years.

                in other words, the back testing i have isn't 100% accurate if you follow my theory of scrapping games with a pitching change.
                Comment
                • honeyeater
                  Restricted User
                  • 01-20-11
                  • 253

                  #498
                  Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                  ^^ Interesting point and great question. I'm still betting Clev though.
                  I ended up taking ST Louis. Is this thread not better then JM MLB? See what can be accomplished when everyone is focused on one system and we are all going the same direction? Gl to CLE (Doesn't look good now)
                  Comment
                  • honeyeater
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-20-11
                    • 253

                    #499
                    Originally posted by slapshot
                    we have a pitching change for st louis.....they in bring someone called lynn....the odds has obviously changed.

                    today's action is cancelled at least for me....if you opt to go for the next biggest favorite it's kansas.....i'm staying away.
                    Thank you Slapshot for all the work you do. As you can see because of the time difference I'll post the fav before you and MOST of the time we agree. Almost always since you showed me how to check Pinnicle through covers. I still have difficulty at times with away favs but you schooled me on that as well. I ended up with STL today because of the "back testing" theory. In any case my question is how did you figure Kansas was the 2nd fav today. Thank you.
                    Comment
                    • jolmscheid
                      Restricted User
                      • 02-20-10
                      • 3256

                      #500
                      Hey honeyeater...what is your record waiting for 3 losses before you start playing?
                      Comment
                      • honeyeater
                        Restricted User
                        • 01-20-11
                        • 253

                        #501
                        Originally posted by jolmscheid
                        Hey honeyeater...what is your record waiting for 3 losses before you start playing?
                        With this system this year I want to say the most I've gone (I chase) is two more games (so to 5). But I think there may have been a 6. Maybe not. SO I've never lost and I just DBL my second bet (since it's usually at least $1-$1). How many wins? I really don't know. I don't keep track. I'd have to look at my account and see how many -1.5 I played in a row. It must be over 10 this year.
                        Comment
                        • honeyeater
                          Restricted User
                          • 01-20-11
                          • 253

                          #502
                          So CLE lost and as of now unless STL performs a miracle the have outright lost the game. In a strange way this accually makes me feel good. Because now I know that today was a true loss and tomorrow will be a true #6 meaning BIG BET TIME!
                          Comment
                          • honeyeater
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-20-11
                            • 253

                            #503
                            So I know everyone is either asleep or drunk in the US but I am pretty certain it's BOS for Friday (US)- I'm playing now.
                            Comment
                            • slapshot
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-27-07
                              • 1194

                              #504
                              Originally posted by honeyeater
                              Thank you Slapshot for all the work you do. As you can see because of the time difference I'll post the fav before you and MOST of the time we agree. Almost always since you showed me how to check Pinnicle through covers. I still have difficulty at times with away favs but you schooled me on that as well. I ended up with STL today because of the "back testing" theory. In any case my question is how did you figure Kansas was the 2nd fav today. Thank you.
                              you're reading the lines right....kansas wasn't the 2nd biggest favorite...a mistake on my part simply.
                              Comment
                              • slapshot
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-27-07
                                • 1194

                                #505
                                25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

                                friday
                                Boston -1 to win 5.33

                                arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.
                                Comment
                                • floridagolfer
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-19-08
                                  • 2757

                                  #506
                                  It's Arizona at my site. Good luck to everyone.
                                  Comment
                                  • GGPLAYER
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-26-09
                                    • 2981

                                    #507
                                    Originally posted by slapshot
                                    25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

                                    friday
                                    Boston -1 to win 5.33

                                    arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.


                                    Sorry to be the guy who is questioning everything but yes I do see Bos opened slightly larger than AZ on Covers. BUT they both opened at -175 on Pinny and according to your tie-breaker rule go with the team with the larger total. AZ game opened at 9 and Bos at 8.5. I have no problem going with Boston because I have 2 other systems which have AZ as a play tonight so I could use the extra action to dig myself out of the economic hole I'm in.
                                    Comment
                                    • teecee
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-18-09
                                      • 6298

                                      #508
                                      now arizona is in contention for highest moneyline of the day? jeez louise. hope it hits florida.
                                      Comment
                                      • GGPLAYER
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-26-09
                                        • 2981

                                        #509
                                        Originally posted by honeyeater
                                        I ended up taking ST Louis. Is this thread not better then JM MLB? See what can be accomplished when everyone is focused on one system and we are all going the same direction? Gl to CLE (Doesn't look good now)

                                        I honestly wish I came back to this thread and read what Slapshot wrote about not playing at all. Th are the worst night for me because I leave work early and I am out of pocket the whole night. I have to lock in my bets before I leave and go with it. I am just breaking one of my golden rules lately and that is not to press and/or win it all back at once. I basically have burned thru a months worth of winnings so I'm starting from scratch. FYI- I was on Minny last night just like you for the same reasons.
                                        Comment
                                        • slapshot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-27-07
                                          • 1194

                                          #510
                                          Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                          Sorry to be the guy who is questioning everything but yes I do see Bos opened slightly larger than AZ on Covers. BUT they both opened at -175 on Pinny and according to your tie-breaker rule go with the team with the larger total. AZ game opened at 9 and Bos at 8.5. I have no problem going with Boston because I have 2 other systems which have AZ as a play tonight so I could use the extra action to dig myself out of the economic hole I'm in.
                                          no, both did not open at -175.....arizona did but not boston.

                                          if you check covers and the line history there, you can see boston opened at -178.
                                          Comment
                                          • GGPLAYER
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-26-09
                                            • 2981

                                            #511
                                            I did check Covers and saw that it was -178. I said that in my other post. I also check the line history for Pinnacle on SBR Odds and Bos opened at -175. Not here to argue. Like I said I'm on both at this point.






                                            Line History:
                                            Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox



                                            MONEYLINES
                                            06/02 16:57 +164 / -175
                                            06/02 17:01 +167 / -178
                                            06/02 17:11 +170 / -181
                                            06/02 22:38 +173 / -185
                                            06/03 06:18 +178 / -190
                                            06/03 09:10 +183 / -195
                                            06/03 10:14 +181 / -193
                                            06/03 13:29 +183 / -195
                                            Comment
                                            • slapshot
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-27-07
                                              • 1194

                                              #512
                                              in situations like this covers used to break the tie.....at least that's how i play the system......tail or develop your own strategy that you are comfortable with.
                                              Comment
                                              • Notorious_Donk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-29-11
                                                • 2689

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by slapshot
                                                25-21-14-2-2 +20.67 units

                                                friday
                                                Boston -1 to win 5.33

                                                arizona was close but boston opened as a bigger favorite according to covers.
                                                Do you use a site where they have -1 run lines? Or do you create them yourself?
                                                Comment
                                                • GGPLAYER
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-26-09
                                                  • 2981

                                                  #514
                                                  Originally posted by slapshot
                                                  in situations like this covers used to break the tie.....at least that's how i play the system......tail or develop your own strategy that you are comfortable with.
                                                  Cool.....thanks for taking the time to respond to me. Really not trying to be a pain in the ass but I am just seeing things one way and want to be sure I'm in step with what everyone is doing. I was a little thrown off yesterday when KC was thrown out there at first as the next highest odd game of the day so I thought I would bring to everyones attention what I was seeing today. You run a nice drama free thread here and I don't want to rock the boat. If you have been using Covers and that is the tie breaker that's what I will roll with. Boston owes me a little anyway after getting sweep by the North Siders this week. Thanks again man.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GGPLAYER
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-26-09
                                                    • 2981

                                                    #515
                                                    Originally posted by Notorious_Donk
                                                    Do you use a site where they have -1 run lines? Or do you create them yourself?

                                                    To the best of my knowledge there is not a site which will offer you a -1 RL. You need to create it by betting enough on the ML to cover a RL loss. Make sense. I'll give you a real world example on tonights game:

                                                    Right now I have RL Even and -195 ML on one of my books. Say you want to win $100, you would break it up like this:

                                                    ML bet $98 to win $50
                                                    RL bet $50 to win $50

                                                    So if they win 2-0 you get $100. If they win 2-1 you push and lose nothing. If they lose 0-1 you lose $148. But keep in mind if you just bet ML to win $100 you would lose $195.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • soldier1047
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 10-26-10
                                                      • 332

                                                      #516
                                                      Here is the -1 Runline formula.

                                                      Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                                                      Hope this helps.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • slapshot
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-27-07
                                                        • 1194

                                                        #517
                                                        no bad blood has been stirred GGPLAYER.....we're all here to win and help each other out in the process.

                                                        reason for being a bit of a stickler on these rules is consistency..............all systems are created to take the analysis out of the pick selection, it should be a completely automatic procedure backed up with real world historical data.

                                                        lets focus on the game now, we need this win badly.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Notorious_Donk
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-29-11
                                                          • 2689

                                                          #518
                                                          Yes I know how to create the -1 run line. I was just wondering if you guys use a site that has a -1 run line, but I don't think there are any. Thanks anyway guys.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • goodone
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 05-15-11
                                                            • 60

                                                            #519
                                                            Originally posted by soldier1047
                                                            Here is the -1 Runline formula.

                                                            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                                                            Hope this helps.
                                                            It helped indeed, thanks soldier!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • slapshot
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 10-27-07
                                                              • 1194

                                                              #520
                                                              -1 is available at pinnacle but with the limitation that you can't be american.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • smclaurin2
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 04-06-11
                                                                • 35

                                                                #521
                                                                5 dimes allows a ton of alternate lines, including -1. That's what I am playing with this system.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • smclaurin2
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 04-06-11
                                                                  • 35

                                                                  #522
                                                                  Gotta love the solo homer in the 8th to go up by 2! Nice win. Boston again tomorrow?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • slapshot
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-27-07
                                                                    • 1194

                                                                    #523
                                                                    8-6 boston.......just what the doctor ordered.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • honeyeater
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 01-20-11
                                                                      • 253

                                                                      #524
                                                                      I never get emotional but I had 20% on this one because it was a 6. Man Boston really made that one close!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • honeyeater
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 01-20-11
                                                                        • 253

                                                                        #525
                                                                        Now according to your system Slapshot we should see at least 4 wins in the next 6 games yes?
                                                                        Comment
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