System Integrity 2011

**soldier1047** · 05-17-11, 09:07 AM

Slapshot, I noticed a few guys played the highest moneyline and 2nd highest moneyline as two seperate chases. Any thoughts on that?

**slapshot** · 05-17-11, 09:40 AM

you mean betting the two biggest favorites for the day, moneyline?
that would have worked out alright this season........but as teams are falling out of contention and prices are reaching -300 and beyond, you need to grow a big pair to chase a even a short losing streak of 3 games.

**peeiempee** · 05-17-11, 10:12 AM

I agree with Slapshot. One thing is you chase 3-4 games at +odds. But playing the -1, you pay huge vig at for example -230 yesterday. If yesterday lost C bet is already close to $1000 if playing to win $100.

**soldier1047** · 05-17-11, 10:21 AM

Thanks for the feedback!

**floridagolfer** · 05-17-11, 10:21 AM

I don't know that these teams necessarily OPENED as the day's second-biggest favorite, but a quick glance through recent weeks appears to indicate that the second-biggest favorite lost six games in a row between April 29-May 4. But I just checked closing numbers.

**soldier1047** · 05-17-11, 10:24 AM

Floridagolfer, thanks for the quick update. I was gonna do some backtesting but I will just drop that project now. Thanks!

**floridagolfer** · 05-17-11, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by soldier1047

Floridagolfer, thanks for the quick update. I was gonna do some backtesting but I will just drop that project now. Thanks!

If you have the time and ability to backtest this, even if it's for half a season, having information is never a bad thing.

**soldier1047** · 05-17-11, 01:44 PM

Ok. Lets see what 2nd highest moneyline can do. I will test this year first.

**atari5200** · 05-17-11, 09:37 PM

Atlanta would've been our much needed winner. Instead we need to watch closely as Felix surrenders 2 runs already in the 1st.

**peeiempee** · 05-17-11, 11:44 PM

That was a brutal beat. Mariners and their lack of run support killed it. Mariners was the right play. Line kept creeping up, while Braves kept creeping down. This system is definately risky this year. I followed it for 2 weeks and profited 3 units. Hopefully 4 units if C bet comes through tomorrow, but the juice gets high taking the -1. I don't know...what do you guys think about the system this year. Is this year the year it fails? Almost more profitable taking the +1.5.

**honeyeater** · 05-18-11, 02:15 AM

Looks like STL

**PALLETIZE** · 05-18-11, 03:39 AM

Starting 3/31 based on Pinnacle opening lines I started a chase on the 1st and 2nd highest favorite of the day with -1 run line. My idea was to split my loses between the 2 each day until they both won at the same time. That happened 6 times between 3/31 to 5/12. The problem was is that between 4/29 and 5/6 number 2 lost 7 times in a row with 1 rain out in the middle. During that time the #1 favorite went 3 and 2 with 3 pushes. During the entire period each system actually hit about 50%. The bottom line is that I believe that this system would work if you had a large enough Bankroll to withstand long losing streaks on either bets,but since I don't I have abandoned it. Instead I am tailing some of the better capers on Covers and Sbr using a Labby and so far seem to be doing well. Just remember, what ever system you decide to use Money Management is the key!

**slapshot** · 05-18-11, 04:53 AM

18-16-11-2 +13.85 units
wednesday
st louis -1 to win 5.15

**floridagolfer** · 05-18-11, 06:13 AM

Seriously, what are the chances that you can back teams that give up four hits in one game and three in the next and you don't cover 1.5 either time? At this rate, we're going to lose some followers before midsummer, and here we are tonight on St. Louis. Don't we all remember a terrible series last year between these two? I do.

**slapshot** · 05-18-11, 07:25 AM

well said....we're not catching any breaks whatsoever right now......

but this is what gambling is all about.....there will be ups and downs...we are not badly hurt by long losing streaks at expensive prices......just the rate we collect wins at is slow and inconsistent during this period......i believe, based on passed seasons, things will turn around for us......need to be patient and disciplined to make this work.

**peeiempee** · 05-18-11, 10:01 AM

well said too slapshot. At least Cards aren't a -230 today.

**Fitz22** · 05-18-11, 12:28 PM

cards = d bet correct? series only goes to d bet or is there a E bet?

**atari5200** · 05-18-11, 09:46 PM

**peeiempee** · 05-18-11, 10:21 PM

Much needed win

**SkivChef** · 05-19-11, 12:03 AM

A 3 way tie for tomorrow's opener?

**slapshot** · 05-19-11, 04:40 AM

19-16-11-2 +19 units

today we have close call, looking at pinnacle at covers, oakland and cincy opened at -172.....however st louis opened at -175 which make them the play.

just a side note....if we were to follow sbr odds, stl wouldn't have been the play.....
thursday
st louis cardinals -1 to win 1

**floridagolfer** · 05-19-11, 06:28 AM

At my site, I actually have three teams (Oakland, St. Louis and Cincinnati) that opened at the same number. I'm going with St. Louis.

Good luck whichever way you go.

Also note that there are afternoon games on today's schedule.

**Fitz22** · 05-19-11, 08:56 AM

looks like it's either Reds or Cards based of -200 opening and the same total as the other game has a 7.5 total....

so which is it?

**atari5200** · 05-19-11, 09:41 AM

i feel like we're pushing it with the cards again, A's and cards will come strong today. I'm with the system and slapshot all the way til the end of this profitable season.

**floridagolfer** · 05-19-11, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by Fitz22

looks like it's either Reds or Cards based of -200 opening and the same total as the other game has a 7.5 total....

so which is it?

There are a few good theories on what people use to break ties, but there no absolutes that address this. I think most people use one of two options: the game that has the higher total, going on the belief that a high-scoring game benefits the favorite; or which of the co-opening highest favs attracts more interest once the lines start to change. The thinking there is that if two teams open at -200, the one that is bet up to -225 has a better chance to cover than one bet down to -175. But there's no right or wrong; it's a personal preference. Good luck.

**allenc85** · 05-19-11, 10:42 AM

My two cents - this year I've tracked the top favs and waited until they've lost two in a row and then started to chase them on the RL. It's only produced 18 plays so far with a 9-9 record (+9 units), with 1 rain out in there somewhere, and there was a week when I couldn't track it where I believe I missed a play that would have been a win. I just track the top line like y'all do, and play it when it gets to a C bet via the -1.5 RL, and then do the same for the second favorite and I've only reached a D bet (which would be y'alls F bet) once and most of them have cleared the line in my first or second game.

Just a suggestion, it won't end up as many units as yall will, assuming neither system loses, but it makes for a lot smaller wagers/chases and usually a decent amount of wins...

**soldier1047** · 05-19-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by allenc85

My two cents - this year I've tracked the top favs and waited until they've lost two in a row and then started to chase them on the RL. It's only produced 18 plays so far with a 9-9 record (+9 units), with 1 rain out in there somewhere, and there was a week when I couldn't track it where I believe I missed a play that would have been a win. I just track the top line like y'all do, and play it when it gets to a C bet via the -1.5 RL, and then do the same for the second favorite and I've only reached a D bet (which would be y'alls F bet) once and most of them have cleared the line in my first or second game.

Just a suggestion, it won't end up as many units as yall will, assuming neither system loses, but it makes for a lot smaller wagers/chases and usually a decent amount of wins...

It is a good strategy. I have been going in at game C with -1 runline. I am gonna backtest 2nd highest.

**allenc85** · 05-19-11, 12:24 PM

the second highest was the only one that has struggled so far... it was the one that reached a d bet (or f bet if you start game 1)... but seeing as how the top two are sometimes interchangeable depending on how you break the tie it is usually a pretty good bet. and also, you generally get a better number by 10-15 points

**floridagolfer** · 05-19-11, 09:32 PM

Oh my God! Stop the presses! We got an A win.

Red Sox (home vs. the Cubs) are easily the play for Friday.

**slapshot** · 05-20-11, 04:57 AM

20-16-11-2 +20 units
friday
boston -1 to win 1

the other big favorites, oak and cin both lost yesterday....can't believe we caught a break

**slapshot** · 05-21-11, 03:23 AM

21-16-11-2 +21 units
saturday
toronto -1 to win 1
is morrow really that great?

**soldier1047** · 05-21-11, 09:20 AM

System is looking good!

**floridagolfer** · 05-21-11, 08:16 PM

Figures we'd get two Game A wins in a row on the day the world comes to an end.

**slapshot** · 05-22-11, 07:38 AM

22-16-11-2 +22 units
sunday
ny yankees -1 to win 1

**peeiempee** · 05-22-11, 11:35 AM

Let's keep this streak rolling!!!