1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Tuesday, 7/10/18

    1 MLB Side Tuesday

    Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 258-266-13, +16.29
    Points Awarded:

    Brian Fallon gave LT Profits 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
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    MLB Side & Total Tuesday

    2 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)
    Brewers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

  3. #3
    cjpenn3
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    Few questions for you... Why Marlins?

    How do you see the pitching matchup/side for Nats/Bucs? Jay's/Braves?

    Any value on Ms or Tigers?

    Thanks in advance

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjpenn3 View Post
    Few questions for you... Why Marlins?

    How do you see the pitching matchup/side for Nats/Bucs? Jay's/Braves?

    Any value on Ms or Tigers?

    Thanks in advance
    I only have Milwaukee 53% (-113), Lopez is highly regarded, I debuted him right at average. Chacin I have about 10% below average, he is a prime regression candidate with a 3.63 ERA vs. 4.65 xFIP

    I have Washington 54% (-117) despite having Musgrove above average and Hellickson below average. Nats have big bullpen edge and they are about 5% better in offensive splits.

    Toronto is close to being a play for me, I only get Atlanta 52% (-108). Stroman right around average, Teheran about 15% below average. Bullpen favors Braves though by about 8%.

    I don't like Seattle as of now, I get Angels 59% (-144). Not a fan of Tigers either, I get Rays 61% (-156) assuming Stanek-Yarbrough combo.
    Points Awarded:

    cjpenn3 gave LT Profits 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    RavensFan2k3
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    Thanks for all the insight LT. How do you rate the two pitchers in the Twins/Royals game? And what % do you get for the game?

  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Thanks for all the insight LT. How do you rate the two pitchers in the Twins/Royals game? And what % do you get for the game?
    Both starters are bad, Slegers about 15% below average, Kennedy about 20% below. I still get Minnesota a large 63% (-170) though, Twins have huge edges in bullpen and offense.

  7. #7
    jimminn
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    Brewers fan here and I don't know why you always bet against them . They are a pretty good team. Always read your picks and appreciate your posts.

  8. #8
    hubie69
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    Lt it's great to see somebody on here talking about xFIP. GL today, I'm on the brewers side today 1st 5, but GL

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimminn View Post
    Brewers fan here and I don't know why you always bet against them . They are a pretty good team. Always read your picks and appreciate your posts.
    Because they are overachieving based on my numbers. And it is not just me, Fangraphs has them one game under .500 rest of the year. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...tion=Standings

  10. #10
    ikid2groove415
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    LT you only bet on bad teams?

  11. #11
    pilebuck13
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    Lt no value on Toronto?

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Lt no value on Toronto?
    See Post #4, close to a play.

  13. #13
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by ikid2groove415 View Post
    lt you only bet on bad teams?
    ytd: 258-266-13, +16.29
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 3 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: 5mike5, Brian Fallon, and KDF500

  14. #14
    jjgold
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    Excellent

    Studying LT card

  15. #15
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by ikid2groove415 View Post
    LT you only bet on bad teams?

  16. #16
    deary626
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    LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?

  17. #17
    deary626
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    LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?

  18. #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by deary626 View Post
    LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?
    Model has exactly 11.0, so no.

  19. #19
    cjpenn3
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    What total do you get for tigers Ray's?

  20. #20
    Blackballer
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I only have Milwaukee 53% (-113), Lopez is highly regarded, I debuted him right at average. Chacin I have about 10% below average, he is a prime regression candidate with a 3.63 ERA vs. 4.65 xFIP

    I have Washington 54% (-117) despite having Musgrove above average and Hellickson below average. Nats have big bullpen edge and they are about 5% better in offensive splits.

    Toronto is close to being a play for me, I only get Atlanta 52% (-108). Stroman right around average, Teheran about 15% below average. Bullpen favors Braves though by about 8%.

    I don't like Seattle as of now, I get Angels 59% (-144). Not a fan of Tigers either, I get Rays 61% (-156) assuming Stanek-Yarbrough combo.
    Are the percentages you write and use the implied probability you derive from the moneyline odds or your calculated probability?

  21. #21
    Blackballer
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    ytd: 258-266-13, +16.29
    Numbers never lie, except the phone numbers from some women

  22. #22
    ikid2groove415
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Stop sucking simp

  23. #23
    ikid2groove415
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    Hey i would take the men by his word -

  24. #24
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackballer View Post
    Are the percentages you write and use the implied probability you derive from the moneyline odds or your calculated probability?
    Model odds

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjpenn3 View Post
    What total do you get for tigers Ray's?
    7.8, again assuming Rays are going Stanek-Yarbrough

  26. #26
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    1 MLB Addition

    3 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)
    Brewers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays +118 (Heritage)

  27. #27
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by ikid2groove415 View Post
    Stop sucking simp
    Ass Clown...............

  28. #28
    Blackballer
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    3 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)
    Brewers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays +118 (Heritage)
    You eventually decided to go with Toronto. You see the Blue Jays having the pitching edge toinght in this matchup? Stroman is a work in progress to me after his injury, is he really a reliable pitcher to you?

  29. #29
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackballer View Post
    You eventually decided to go with Toronto. You see the Blue Jays having the pitching edge toinght in this matchup? Stroman is a work in progress to me after his injury, is he really a reliable pitcher to you?
    Already mentioned Toronto starting pitching edge in earlier post, and why would Stroman be work-in-progress? He has nice sized track record plus he has had two good starts vs. one bad start since coming off DL, so injury not a concern.

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