Reverend's 2010 MLB

**DustyDiamond** · 07-10-10, 08:36 AM

I thought this system was based on opening lines, not line changes

**JVP3122** · 07-10-10, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I thought this system was based on opening lines, not line changes

Then play Tampa. One could argue that the line for the Rangers/Orioles was posted with a different pitcher, and had said pitcher started then Tampa would be the play. Since Lee was listed as the starter the "opening" line is -310 at Pinny. Just my two cents.

**gtboy** · 07-10-10, 08:47 AM

Based on #s for the pitcher i think TB loses again tonight. Last night i wanted to go TB and i saw the #s between pitchers and change my mind. lucky i did. TB is clearly the better team but the pitchers here will have the last word. I am sticking with tex, but only small bet to regain my loses from the last 2 games.

**df1000** · 07-10-10, 10:02 AM

thank god ther break is coming soon, it may be time to re-calibrate my system.

**DustyDiamond** · 07-10-10, 11:17 AM

It is interesting, even with Lee as the starter according to covers.com Pinny is still listed at -225 as of 11:56 am eastern time

**diegoelmestre** · 07-10-10, 11:23 AM

Think that C bet it's safe today... lose 1 time to baltimore playing at home it was very bad, two humiliationg... three? i dont thinbk that willl happen

**nWalulu** · 07-10-10, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by diegoelmestre

Think that C bet it's safe today... lose 1 time to baltimore playing at home it was very bad, two humiliationg... three? i dont thinbk that willl happen

Agreed...Taking the Rangers again tonight as my C bet. For those that have been playing this all year....how many C bets have there been?

**GGPLAYER** · 07-10-10, 11:30 AM

What the fuc*!!! I live on the east coast and went to bed when it was 4-0. Wake up to this crap! Two days in a row. Ruined a pefect night for me and now the juice is insane. Not happy.

**balls2wall** · 07-10-10, 11:32 AM

morning guys

first let me say that C BETS SUCK!!

LOL

Dusty brought up a good point about opening lines and pitching changes

I don't think we have had a pitching change that has caused that team to jump to the biggest favorite, especially by a huge margin so this situation is a first

As we have said all along, everyone needs to play the plays they are comfortable with since it is their own money. If anyone likes TB then play them as the play. The same goes with Texas.

The difference in units risked for these two plays is 4.5 units.

I am going with Texas as the play. You have arguably the best pitcher in the league going against a guy who was sent down to the minors because of his 8+ era and less than 4 innings per start. With that being said, he has been pitching very well since being sent down.

We also have the better team playing at home vs. a team that has won a mere 23% of their road games and coming off road wins the past two nights.

Baltimore has seemed to be playing much better lately...

Let's hope for Texas getting payback from the past two nights, them not letting Baltimore take the series and getting Lee off on the right foot.

**balls2wall** · 07-10-10, 11:36 AM

Saturday FAV System Play

C Bet: TEX -1rl (-245) risking 19.35 units to win 7.91 units

**balls2wall** · 07-10-10, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

What the fuc*!!! I live on the east coast and went to bed when it was 4-0. Wake up to this crap! Two days in a row. Ruined a pefect night for me and now the juice is insane. Not happy.

I didn't watch the scoreboard, but was expecting to wake up to a win this morning as well.

**nWalulu** · 07-10-10, 11:44 AM

@Balls...How many C bets have you seen this year?

**NastyStuff** · 07-10-10, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

I didn't watch the scoreboard, but was expecting to wake up to a win this morning as well.

I watched it and knew they were going to blow the game after the 5th by the way they were playing...you know that "sinking feeling" you get in your gut as you watch a win slip away?...I sure don't want to have to put Texas on my Cubs and Philly list of "Dangerous to bet on at the best of times..."...let's hope they pull it out today.

**JVP3122** · 07-10-10, 12:03 PM

Hopefully witth Lee pitching today the O's won't have much of a chance to get to the bullpen.

**balls2wall** · 07-10-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by nWalulu

@Balls...How many C bets have you seen this year?

sorry man, I don't really know

unfortunately, I have not played the system the whole year

and wasn't the one tracking it for the first half so I have no record of what the record was before I started tracking it

we have had 3 C bets since I have been tracking with today being the 4th

I recall rev having a few and he actually had a D bet on what I think was the last series he was around for

the last posted record is in post 3020

**NastyStuff** · 07-10-10, 03:43 PM

I sure wish the REV would drop in just to say HI once in awhile...we do owe home alot (no disrespect meant to Balls 2 Wall ...his efforts are greatly appreciated)...but it was the REV who got most of us going on this train of thought and some of us will be in his debt for along time for giving us this system.

**timmyboy34243** · 07-10-10, 05:26 PM

now -370 and -190 on the rl. though it seems right it's hard to back these #'s.

**diegoelmestre** · 07-10-10, 08:26 PM

OMG... Texas losing 3-0 middle 5th :S

**G's pks** · 07-10-10, 10:42 PM

Guys if you really lost 20 units today be careful... You can see how quick 20-0...30-0...whatever can mean absolutely nothing... I am down 3 units in my system on Texas also...going to a "D" I doubt there are really to many seriously risking 40/50 units just to break even... GL guys whatever you do... My system calls for drawing back... Win or lose...on Sunday...this is really a loss...

**dynamitappletini** · 07-11-10, 03:59 AM

Texas opened at -275

I didn't play them last night for the chase bc i felt uncomfortable, but it's the same shit again :-/
Texas getting swept in a 4 game series? probably not but who would have thought it would be 6-1 with Lee?

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

Guys if you really lost 20 units today be careful... You can see how quick 20-0...30-0...whatever can mean absolutely nothing... I am down 3 units in my system on Texas also...going to a "D" I doubt there are really to many seriously risking 40/50 units just to break even... GL guys whatever you do... My system calls for drawing back... Win or lose...on Sunday...this is really a loss...

great advice as always G

hopefully the D bet pulls through today, if not the great start is totally wiped out

I had a bad feeling heading into the all star break for some reason

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by dynamitappletini

Texas opened at -275

I didn't play them last night for the chase bc i felt uncomfortable, but it's the same shit again :-/
Texas getting swept in a 4 game series? probably not but who would have thought it would be 6-1 with Lee?

I am very glad to see you stayed away yesterday

I hope many did, but TX looked good on paper so I am afraid not many did

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I thought this system was based on opening lines, not line changes

I think your way of looking at it may be correct and not just because that play won and the official posted one didn't

I hope you went with your initial gut feeling and went with TB

please tell me you did

**jessetopolski** · 07-11-10, 08:07 AM

cliff lee harvey oswalt. worst era in ballpark texas stadiummmm

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 08:24 AM

guys, I feel bad about yesterday

We could have gone with TB or Texas because of the early pitching change

that has never really come up before

a decision had to be made and I obviously made the wrong one based on the outcome of yesterdays games. It may or may not have been the right one technically.

it appeared most here liked Texas as well as myself so I went with that

I am sorry. The one good thing about tracking these plays is that there was no guilt on my part since I didn't really have any input on the plays since they were set in stone 95% of the time. If it would have been an A bet yesterday I wouldn't feel as bad.

Technically as far as what the correct answer would be for that situation I can see both sides of the argument. I wish the answer was more obvious so there wouldn't have been a need to make the decision.

Oh well, it is done and we can't go back. I feel bad, but I can't beat myself up over it any more. Time to move on

hopefully the D bet pulls through today

it would be a shame for this to lose on the last day before the all star break

anyone on the D bet today please tread with caution

**JVP3122** · 07-11-10, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

guys, I feel bad about yesterday

We could have gone with TB or Texas because of the early pitching change

that has never really come up before

a decision had to be made and I obviously made the wrong one

it appeared most here liked Texas as well as myself so I went with that

I am sorry. The one good thing about tracking these plays is that there was no guilt on my part since I didn't really have any input on the plays since they were set in stone 95% of the time. If it would have been an A bet yesterday I wouldn't feel as bad.

Technically as far as what the correct answer would be for that situation I can see both sides of the argument. I wish the answer was more obvious so there wouldn't have been a need to make the decision.

Oh well, it is done and we can't go back. I feel bad, but I can't beat myself up over it any more. Time to move on

hopefully the D bet pulls through today

it would be a shame for this to lose on the last day before the all star break

anyone on the D bet today please tread with caution

You did nothing wrong. The line opened up with one pitcher on the books, and then it changed when the other pitcher was announced. Actually, at Bookmaker, they even took the line down when Lee was announced. They re-opened it and Texas was by far the biggest favorite. It was just a weird unfortunate situation that killed the series. I would have liked to have been a little further up when I started following TA, but it wouldn't be my luck if I was actually in a good position for the second half of the season. Good luck with the Rangers on the D bet today, guys. I'm sitting this one out and licking my wounds. Hopefully TA can help me win some of it back after the break.

**G's pks** · 07-11-10, 09:38 AM

what is the listed "D" bet amount and before the game starts is there anyone using this risk/reward ratio?

Just wondering if anyone before the results are in will say they are following the systems risk/reward ratio on this one?

**df1000** · 07-11-10, 09:59 AM

i like tampa as my fav today. they have a good record against cleveland.

**arizona40** · 07-11-10, 10:04 AM

Good luck today on the "D" bet folks. I will be rooting for ya!!!!

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

what is the listed "D" bet amount and before the game starts is there anyone using this risk/reward ratio?

Just wondering if anyone before the results are in will say they are following the systems risk/reward ratio on this one?

the play will be listed in a few minutes and will be roughly 55 units

all I can tell you is that I am not playing it

I can't speak for anyone else

**DustyDiamond** · 07-11-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

I think your way of looking at it may be correct and not just because that play won and the official posted one didn't

I hope you went with your initial gut feeling and went with TB

please tell me you did

I went with Texas last night, I fought against myself over and over, but Texas looked like a sure winner on paper. Oh well that's gambling. On to a D bet.

**DustyDiamond** · 07-11-10, 10:25 AM

Texas opened at -290 as the fav.

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by df1000

i like tampa as my fav today. they have a good record against cleveland.

good luck DF. The way texas has been screwing the system that may be the best thing to do

Texas has gotten the system into this jam this week and now they could bring it crashing down with a loss today. I hope they pull through to keep this thing going.

BOL

**balls2wall** · 07-11-10, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I went with Texas last night, I fought against myself over and over, but Texas looked like a sure winner on paper. Oh well that's gambling. On to a D bet.

Great attitude dusty

I was really hoping you were gonna tell me you went with TB though

BOL today

**G's pks** · 07-11-10, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

the play will be listed in a few minutes and will be roughly 55 units

all I can tell you is that I am not playing it

I can't speak for anyone else

Nothing wrong with being honest... Very easy for some to say they win every day when they just enter a thread after the game to criticize or say they won by doing something else... As I said in my thread... this is a series where the odds are a nightmare! The key to these systems is to win by the "B" game...anything past that you can wipe out a good season... I have decided in my thread even if Texas wins... I am not counting it as a win... but if they lose it definitely goes in...