Reverend's 2010 MLB

[G's pks]

Well...

It is a funny thing. Marquis just got pulled without retiring a batter. Brewers are up 4-0 with bases loaded with 0 outs in the first inning.

I will stand by you though...better to be safe then sorry by passing.

Risk/reward...discipline will win out in the long run...

[dume walker]

Marquis got chased in the first inning. Score is 5-0 Brewers in the top of the 1st with bases loaded and no one out. So, yeah... It looks like the Brewers were a good pick...

[G's pks]

yeah crazy thing is i feel like theyt are going to in today, but again sometimes better be safe than sorry is the right way to go

Exactly...in the long term the others will learn that...

But hey root for the guys that bet it...

[TNT28]

Wow it's 10-0 now..grand slam just happened. And I was thinking about the night the Brewers put up like 19 runs was it?

[reverend]

Rev if you are passing on the brewers series and taking a total of approximately an eight unit loss, I was thinking if you reread your situational system this might have not even qualified. It mentions taking a top tier team in the first sentence. Also as I mentioned expecting just to win all the time is very hard.

When i worked it out percentage wise last year it worked out to a ratio of about 8 to 16% chance of picking a losing series each time. But as you said this would be a costly loss if being down approximately 8 units om the brewers and if you bet say 9 units to try to show a profit not worth the risk of losing 17 units...Taking a series loss here is probably the safest thing to do. Now watch the brewers win! But better to be safe than sorry.

Also seeing you are adding more than one system obviously your chances of having series losses will increase. Everyone just build around the winnings and back off avoiding to much risk and taking a loss as in this case is fine based on your risk tolerence.

As I said earlier, the Brewers did not fit in my system and I did not play them. Look at it this way you guys should be up enough to avoid or bet a smaller amount on game. In my system the "C" bet involves taking a loss for that particular series to avoid risk. I am sure several times during the year you may have to decide to take a series loss or risk a high amount to show a win. Or adjust your system like I learned last year to accept series losses even with a win in a "C" bet..

For any of you that played the Brewers and are following through good luck..just be careful with risk reward and protect your winnings...very eeasy to give it back in a situation like this.

You bring up a great point I want to discuss. It is very easy in chase systems to create this "revenge" mentality. You lose an A bet or an A and B bet and you feel like the series owes you something. It was very hard for me to pass on this game today (which looks like a bad decision now that the score is 10-0 in the first inning), because I see 9 units that "should be mine" in my mind, but knowing that in the past, I have had a tendency to take on more risk than I should and oftentimes paid for it, today I feel as though I took a step forward as a sports bettor. Whether this was the right call or not, I know that I am still showing a large profit over the young season, and we can move forward with that "locked in."

[Echofox]

I also went ahead and took the Brewers..chased A and B and will let it die there. Looking back it wasn't the best series to take anyway. Gonna stay away from the road plays.

LOL....ummm oops

And thanks Rev for all the insights and posts since the start of the season. This thread has been very informative for me and I will follow it for the rest of the season.

[doublej95]

hopefully it stands up and the brew crew wins. I never meant to take away from reverends thread in saying to follow through with C BETS. I was just giving advice from alot of my system experince. I have laid off of C Bets before because I thought there was no way in Hell a team could win or cover and sure enough i set on the side and sucked my thumb. I went through with the C Bet and even parlayed it with the over. I kinda disagree with the laying off and adding money to the next system series to get back money from the previous system series. Because you can easily be back to facing another C Bet and either having to lay off or play it and end up losing bigger than you should have. The key is money management from the very first bet, have an idea of what theC Bet will cost you if it does go to the C Bet and know what amount you are willing to risk losing.

[G's pks]

You bring up a great point I want to discuss. It is very easy in chase systems to create this "revenge" mentality. You lose an A bet or an A and B bet and you feel like the series owes you something. It was very hard for me to pass on this game today (which looks like a bad decision now that the score is 10-0 in the first inning), because I see 9 units that "should be mine" in my mind, but knowing that in the past, I have had a tendency to take on more risk than I should and oftentimes paid for it, today I feel as though I took a step forward as a sports bettor. Whether this was the right call or not, I know that I am still showing a large profit over the young season, and we can move forward with that "locked in."

Rev I could not of said it better!

It is one game in a very long season... I would say if it wins count it as a win in the system because it is...and just minus the 8 units or whatever the loss is out. Do not let this affect what you are doing... Long, long season and there will be many more wins.

[reverend]

Sunday April 18:

FAV System:

A Bet: Cardinals (-1 RL) 1.87 Units to Win 1 Unit

[reverend]

hopefully it stands up and the brew crew wins. I never meant to take away from reverends thread in saying to follow through with C BETS. I was just giving advice from alot of my system experince. I have laid off of C Bets before because I thought there was no way in Hell a team could win or cover and sure enough i set on the side and sucked my thumb. I went through with the C Bet and even parlayed it with the over. I kinda disagree with the laying off and adding money to the next system series to get back money from the previous system series. Because you can easily be back to facing another C Bet and either having to lay off or play it and end up losing bigger than you should have. The key is money management from the very first bet, have an idea of what theC Bet will cost you if it does go to the C Bet and know what amount you are willing to risk losing.

No worries! I am glad you posted your thoughts and played this series out. I agree with you 100%!

The fact is, we will have a C bet...and i will be playing it most every time. So, i dont want those in this thread to get the idea that just because a C bet comes up, it is time to jump ship!

Great job to those that stuck with the system!

[reverend]

Rev I could not of said it better!

It is one game in a very long season... I would say if it wins count it as a win in the system because it is...and just minus the 8 units or whatever the loss is out. Do not let this affect what you are doing... Long, long season and there will be many more wins.

I wanted to raise the question to those who read this thread, and ask how you think best to "grade" the series for this thread?

First off, I dont want anyone ever to accuse me of trying to pad my record or mislead others! The fact is I passed on the C bet and I loss slightly over 8 units on the A and B bets.

With that said, I also want people to have an accurate view of the 2 systems I play and the units won playing both of them, and if the Brewers win today, I dont think it is accurate to grade the series as a loss...because it wasn't.

So what are your thoughts?

[jolmscheid]

Yeah Rev...don't grade it as a loss...just count it as a win and keep your units won what you actually have....ALSO, I thought you were playing the Yankees on the -1RL today for your fav. system?? Or was that yesterday? Anyways, was just a bit confused because I see that the Cards. are on the fav. system play today...thanks rev

[reverend]

Yeah Rev...don't grade it as a loss...just count it as a win and keep your units won what you actually have....ALSO, I thought you were playing the Yankees on the -1RL today for your fav. system?? Or was that yesterday? Anyways, was just a bit confused because I see that the Cards. are on the fav. system play today...thanks rev

Yankees were the FAV system play yesterday, which was a winner. Today's FAV system play is on the cards.

[doublej95]

Brewers win it is a system win, brewers lose it is a system loss. It's about the System's and not who played it and who didnt.

[reverend]

I am still kinda wondering what caused the large line movement in the Brewers/Nats game today? My original plan was to parlay the Brewers with the Cardinals today, but when the line changed so quickly an hour or so before the game, I stayed away completely.

I am not afraid of normal line movement, but when a favored team becomes the dog and the line moves by close to 25 points an hour before the game, with no starters sitting out, it really makes you wonder...

[jolmscheid]

Thanks Rev

[reverend]

Brewers win it is a system win, brewers lose it is a system loss. It's about the System's and not who played it and who didnt.

what about the units? would you treat them as if it was a series win as well?

this is what i am leaning to right now...

[JW Cash]

Brewers win it is a system win, brewers lose it is a system loss. It's about the System's and not who played it and who didnt.

You are right...it is a system WIN anyway you look at it...


I would have used G's method of playing the C Bet but with a small loss.....The more I look at that method...the more I like it....

I backtested that method to my own chase sequence and actually ended
up with more profit because of NOT taking a full series loss at the C Bet

Thanks G !

[G's pks]

I wanted to raise the question to those who read this thread, and ask how you think best to "grade" the series for this thread?

First off, I dont want anyone ever to accuse me of trying to pad my record or mislead others! The fact is I passed on the C bet and I loss slightly over 8 units on the A and B bets.

With that said, I also want people to have an accurate view of the 2 systems I play and the units won playing both of them, and if the Brewers win today, I dont think it is accurate to grade the series as a loss...because it wasn't.

So what are your thoughts?

It would without a doubt still be a series win with the 8 units taken out. Safety first to last out the season...

[G's pks]

You are right...it is a system WIN anyway you look at it...


I would have used G's method of playing the C Bet but with a small loss.....The more I look at that method...the more I like it....

I backtested that method to my own chase sequence and actually ended
up with more profit because of NOT taking a full series loss at the C Bet

Thanks G !

You are welcome my system of money management is something I developed after being buried early in the year last year...

A simple version could be something like this (of course very conservative like the system)

Place your average first bet whatever the unit size, if a loss you do not have to double...place second bet if you want double if not enough to cover first bet plus a small profit. If the second bet loses...go back to your "A' bet amount for your "C" bet. If it wins it covers your "A" bet loss and leaves you with only the "B" bet amount...just a small loss.

If it loses obviously you have lost a ton less than constantly doubling up.
It could go like this 1, 2, 1...would only be a 4 unit loss for three games.
If the "C" wins just a 2 unit loss...a lot more conservative but should help get you through the season...tons less risk, but also possibly smaller profit...but should keep you in the game...
If anyone needs to see how it works...in my thread you can view the whole last season including the failed double down and large loss on the Phillies being swept 4 games at home in my thread from last year linked in this years thread. Then the change over and the safer version with winning results.

[doublej95]

what about the units? would you treat them as if it was a series win as well?

this is what i am leaning to right now...

Yes Rev I would credit the units won just like any of your other system wins. I can't remember without having to look back but I believe it was for 1.5 units. Like I said before it's not about how I, you or anyone else bet the system it's about how the System played out.

[dyeguy]

Rev, I know exactly what you mean about feeling like the series owes you something and placing a C bet simply out of emotion. I agree that you take a step forward as a bettor any time you over come your emotion and make a logical decision. My thought today was, would I be more upset if I made the bet and lost or if I didn't make it and they won? The answer for me was the first choice. Protecting the wins we already have is more important when you don't feel right about a bet.

[doubleleg]

good stuff

[reverend]

Rev, I know exactly what you mean about feeling like the series owes you something and placing a C bet simply out of emotion. I agree that you take a step forward as a bettor any time you over come your emotion and make a logical decision. My thought today was, would I be more upset if I made the bet and lost or if I didn't make it and they won? The answer for me was the first choice. Protecting the wins we already have is more important when you don't feel right about a bet.

very well said!

[reverend]

Yes Rev I would credit the units won just like any of your other system wins. I can't remember without having to look back but I believe it was for 1.5 units. Like I said before it's not about how I, you or anyone else bet the system it's about how the System played out.

this is how i will be grading the brewers series. if the C bet wins today, it will be a series win, +1.5 units.

we are keeping track of the 3 various systems in this thread.


lets get ready for next week now!

[G's pks]

what about the units? would you treat them as if it was a series win as well?

this is what i am leaning to right now...

You would have to treat the units as a loss and minus out of the situational system because that is what you played. Also minus out of the total winning amount. Everyone is betting different amounts and has different records keep your accurate. System win yes, unit win no, because you still in reality lost 8 units.

[reverend]

You would have to treat the units as a loss and minus out of the situational system because that is what you played. Also minus out of the total winning amount. Everyone is betting different amounts and has different record keep your accurat. System win yes, unit win no, because you still in reality lost 8 units.

G, maybe i should have 2 different places in my sig that show the systems numbers, and then my personal numbers. because i agree with you, about the 8 unit loss, but at the same time, the system did not lose 8 units.

[G's pks]

this is how i will be grading the brewers series. if the C bet wins today, it will be a series win, +1.5 units.

we are keeping track of the 3 various systems in this thread.


lets get ready for next week now!

If you do it this way you may want to note this is the system record and not your actual plays just so people are aware when they read the thread.

[reverend]

If you do it this way you may want to note this is the system record and not your actual plays just so people are aware when they read the thread.

i agree

[G's pks]

G, maybe i should have 2 different places in my sig that show the systems numbers, and then my personal numbers. because i agree with you, about the 8 unit loss, but at the same time, the system did not lose 8 units.

It may get confusing that way...it will be hard enough with you playing different systems...part of the reason I am not playing more than one system yet. But its your thread...do what works best.

[JW Cash]

You are welcome my system of money management is something I developed after being buried early in the year last year...

A simple version could be something like this (of course very conservative like the system)

Place your average first bet whatever the unit size, if a loss you do not have to double...place second bet if you want double if not enough to cover first bet plus a small profit. If the second bet loses...go back to your "A' bet amount for your "C" bet. If it wins it covers your "A" bet loss and leaves you with only the "B" bet amount...just a small loss.

If it loses obviously you have lost a ton less than constantly doubling up.
It could go like this 1, 2, 1...would only be a 4 unit loss for three games.
If the "C" wins just a 2 unit loss...a lot more conservative but should help get you through the season...tons less risk, but also possibly smaller profit...but should keep you in the game...
If anyone needs to see how it works...in my thread you can view the whole last season including the failed double down and large loss on the Phillies being swept 4 games at home in my thread from last year linked in this years thread. Then the change over and the safer version with winning results.

G......

What would your approach be for ...when you have a 2 or 4 unit loss at Bet C..

...to divide that loss or to absorb it with upcoming future series.....

For instance.....divide up a 4 unit loss into the next 5 or 7 series to eventually
get back the loss....


If one has a good strike rate for Bet A and Bet B......this money management technique would seem to have some merit............

[G's pks]

G......

What would your approach be for ...when you have a 2 or 4 unit loss at Bet C..

...to divide that loss or to absorb it with upcoming future series.....

For instance.....divide up a 4 unit loss into the next 5 or 7 series to eventually
get back the loss....


If one has a good strike rate for Bet A and Bet B......this money management technique would seem to have some merit............

I would keep the bet sizes exactly the same as they were before the 4 unit loss... The system over the long run should absorb it... The series that go to "C" bets should not be causing ulcers.

[G's pks]

Also JW I played chases years ago..John Morrison did not invent crap! The next point is remember if you have played a chase before...by mid June these lines will seem small. The books will start jacking them up making a series loss devastating at -300 odds like June through october... That is why safer smaller amounts on chases work so much better.

The other day someone talked about starting with $100 and turning it into $300. He mentioned wanting to increase his bet size to .7 of a unit or $70 a bet. if you are doubling up it would look like this with one series loss, 70 on A, 140 on B, and 280 on C. That is 490!!! Obviously more than he has in his account and he would be wiped out...people adjust your bet sizes so you are not reloading every week like some of these guys that think it is standard to pay the bookie every week.

[mlb]

Great points Rev and G's.. I'm doing a small chase among other plays and just building it into all my plays ... Like for example today I only put a little more on the Brewers than I lost in the first game so I still almost lost everything I lost in yesterday's game, but hell I made profit other areas so it's not worth the risk...

great info and keep trucking conservatively... we're still in April boys .. no one should be wiped out

[reverend]

Congrats to those who backed the brewers today on the C bet!