The New No Home Series Sweep Thread

jolmscheid · 04-03-10, 06:59 PM

Sting...can you let us know when the thread is up and

plan of action? Thanks

trevlyn1983 · 04-03-10, 07:50 PM

Not that great at spreadsheets but what you think ?

Attached Files

MLB Betting1.xlsx (51.1 KB, 201 views)

JW Cash · 04-03-10, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Yes, I replied to your post right after asking exactly how you would spread out the losses. I thought it was a great idea on your part! Just want to make sure that we implement it the way you are talking about...

..no problem man....

I have different ways to divide the risk to maximze the profit...

I strongly believe in the compounding effect as soon as profit is realized...that
way profit grows very fast...

I DONT do a straight 3 game chase...again to reduce risk..

If lose Bet A... I start the recovery right away.....

You can really build up units that way ...and again WITHOUT THE RISK of a straight chase... and if you compound the profit...
well, the sky's the limit...

But the most important factor.....is the Strength of the Play...

trevlyn1983 · 04-03-10, 08:48 PM

I was thinking . Not sure if its a good idea or what .. You think doing a small parlay on the teams your chasing that has a homestead at the same time would be decent bets too ? .

bretb27 · 04-03-10, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by stingyrivers

Hey guys...

let's get this rolling....

the other thread got closed based on how this system is blasphemy to people on here and they cant control themselves but to invade and knock people....

so this is the new place to continue building the system for the season, backtesting it, and discussing the plays for the year... let's prove them all wrong and make this a winner....

either way.... good luck

For newcomers, there should be a breakdown of the system here so you know what we all are working on.... first, it has an A, B, C three game chase involved, if you dont like that and are against this type of play, move on, no point in telling us, we all know the potential pitfalls....

we are betting that: certain home teams will not get swept in a 3 or 4 game series.... as well as certain road teams will not sweep on the road a 3 or 4 game series... the plays are from opening day until Sept 1 when the system ends....

the reason we essentially are working on this and playing this strategy this year... it has been backtested for the past 4 seasons in a prior thread, and showed a profit each year....

all I can say is according to the rules of this system, if you made this series chase on Bos, NYY, LAA, LAD, CWS and TB at every home series last year, you were 114 - 0 and if you faded Pitt, Wash, KC, Hou, SD on the road last year you were 100 - 0

this seems to offer a lot of potential...

let's all have a good year and fun with this too

so you're saying none of those teams swept or got swept? i'm a red sox fan and i'm pretty sure they were swept a coupe times... and i know they swept the yankees beating them 8 in a row at one point... am i misunderstanding?

dyeguy · 04-03-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by JW Cash

..no problem man....

I have different ways to divide the risk to maximze the profit...

I strongly believe in the compounding effect as soon as profit is realized...that
way profit grows very fast...

I DONT do a straight 3 game chase...again to reduce risk..

If lose Bet A... I start the recovery right away.....

You can really build up units that way ...and again WITHOUT THE RISK of a straight chase... and if you compound the profit...
well, the sky's the limit...

But the most important factor.....is the Strength of the Play...

So, can you give us an example of what that looks like when you start the recovery right away on a B bet?

reverend · 04-03-10, 10:43 PM

for those looking to reduce risk and not mind giving up some opportunities...the below strategy has been briefly mentioned and i have tested it as well.

only play a series if the home/road team has 6 straight games. then bet the team on the -1 RL and be willing to chase for 4 games. this greatly reduces the risk compared to the ML juice.

reverend · 04-03-10, 10:44 PM

the 6 games allow you to have a push on the -1 RL and still give you the games to win the series with

reverend · 04-03-10, 10:58 PM

Trying to narrow down my picks for the first round of series...

1st Tier:

Yanks @ Boston
Phils @ Wash (Road)
SD @ AZ
Clev @ CWS
Bal @ TB

2 Tier:

Tor @ Tex
Min @ LAA

I really love those top 5 plays!

As far as the 2nd tier plays, I believe that Toronto is going to be one of the weakest teams in the league this year, but I am just not sure about backing Texas' rotation. Same goes with the LAA game, knowing that Minny can hit, and knowing LAA is without Lackey this year, I can see myself laying off of these 2 games due to the questions I have about the home teams pitching staffs.

But I will be pleased to start 5-0!

jolmscheid · 04-03-10, 11:00 PM

Same here Rev! Are you doing the ML or the -1 RL?

reverend · 04-03-10, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Trying to narrow down my picks for the first round of series...

1st Tier:

Yanks @ Boston
Phils @ Wash (Road)
SD @ AZ
Clev @ CWS
Bal @ TB

2 Tier:

Tor @ Tex
Min @ LAA

I really love those top 5 plays!

As far as the 2nd tier plays, I believe that Toronto is going to be one of the weakest teams in the league this year, but I am just not sure about backing Texas' rotation. Same goes with the LAA game, knowing that Minny can hit, and knowing LAA is without Lackey this year, I can see myself laying off of these 2 games due to the questions I have about the home teams pitching staffs.

But I will be pleased to start 5-0!

Here is my plan...as of now

I have 5 series I am playing. Of those 5, 3 of them I plan on playing their 2nd series as well. So because of that fact, I will play those 3 on the -1 RL. For the other 2, I will play them on the ML.

Details:

-1 RL:
Yanks @ Boston
-if these 3 lose, i will continue to play the chase as Boston plays KC
SD @ AZ
-same as above, i will continue to chase as Pit plays at AZ
Phils @ Wash
-same, Phils play Houston in their 2nd series

ML:
Clev @ CWS
Bal @ TB

DeHoyos · 04-04-10, 12:26 AM

I'm up all night if anyone wants a study partner.....

DeHoyos · 04-04-10, 12:28 AM

I got plenty of dro to last me through the night......

stingyrivers · 04-04-10, 03:09 AM

just woke up if you are still out there hoyos.... I like these ideas... I am going to finalize my plan now....

Cosmo213 · 04-04-10, 04:12 AM

For fun I made a chart to better illustrate the issue I discovered.

As you can see, the lower the odds the slower the rate of growth. At +100 growth is purely linear. With higher odds things get progressively worse. A C bet on -200 odds will make you drop a deuce in your pants.

jolmscheid · 04-04-10, 05:45 AM

What should we do Sting?

stingyrivers · 04-04-10, 06:30 AM

lol.... a few thoughts...

not lose any series

be really good at capping this so wins come in one or two games, which 80 percent historically do....

but, seriously....

I think any of the new thoughts listed here are fine approaches of dealing with the C bet issue.... it is really a matter of personal preference...

I would bet if you only played your good teams where in the series they were going with their 1 and 2 starters to start the series, and those were the only series you played, you would almost never see a game three issue... particularly with amazing one two punches like Carpenter, Wainright... Lincecum, Cain... etc...

balls2wall · 04-04-10, 10:12 AM

The recurring theme here seems to be how to reduce risk.

I kind of like the -1rl idea

Here is another possibility...

game B to win 50% of original bet

game C to break even on series OR game C to win 25% of original bet

I think I have seen the C bet to break even mentioned, but not the B bet for 50% or C bet for 25%

you could even combine that with the rl or -1rl method to further reduce risk

justchecking · 04-04-10, 10:21 AM

has the new pick only thread been setup yet?

khaden · 04-04-10, 10:30 AM

HAPPY OPENING DAY--AND HAPPY EASTER.

I like the new concept of reducing the plays and the constant monitoring of playing the best against the worst and adding a few other series as they occur during the season. 150-0 would be a nice payout especially with doing the progression of increasing your plays with your bankroll.

allison13 · 04-04-10, 10:41 AM

Cant wait to give this system a try. Sounds like a good one.

justchecking · 04-04-10, 10:46 AM

has the new pick only thread been setup yet ?

stingyrivers · 04-04-10, 10:48 AM

I should be setting up the picks thread this afternoon... I can tell you as far as today is concerned... Boston is a play, as far as how I look at this concept...

Good luck everybody... it is awesome to see so many on board... lets make this a winner this summer

justchecking · 04-04-10, 11:03 AM

Thank you, Good Luck

reverend · 04-04-10, 11:06 AM

go Boston!

jolmscheid · 04-04-10, 11:39 AM

Shut 'em down Beckett!

Betting Guru · 04-04-10, 11:46 AM

I am rolling with reverend, Go Boston!!

trevlyn1983 · 04-04-10, 12:49 PM

GL Everyone ... Im on Board too !

SkivChef · 04-04-10, 05:28 PM

Let's go!!!!

stingyrivers · 04-04-10, 05:51 PM

Skiv.... glad you are on board...

way at the beginning of all this, it was clear we should end the system on sept 1, bypassing the month of september, as all MLB systems should not go deep in sept for the reason you just pointed out... all the backtesting and research was done from opening day to sept 1...

SkivChef · 04-04-10, 06:02 PM

Ah, thanks for your response and sorry about posting on other thread. Do only certain books offer -1rl?

Cosmo213 · 04-04-10, 06:04 PM

I think so Skiv, I'm with 5Dimes and they only seem to offer +/-1.5 and +/-2.5 RL options.

SkivChef · 04-04-10, 06:06 PM

What's this -1 run calculator thingy?

Patrick Adams · 04-04-10, 06:18 PM

So if u win game 1 of the series u don't touch another game in that same series right

Cosmo213 · 04-04-10, 06:23 PM

That's right, as soon as you win a game the series chase ends.