At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

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  • DeHoyos
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-30-10
    • 306

    #316
    Why wouldnt a seasoned pro try something like this in your opinion????

    Maybe at the start you should just go gm1 and 2 and just make up for the loss when your roll is bigger...
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    • DeHoyos
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-30-10
      • 306

      #317
      Originally posted by stingyrivers
      lol... I think every week there are going to be really solid options.... the 2 grand proposition, that could take some work.... I remember now why I was thinking 20 was reckless for a 400 bankroll....

      lets just say you take a losing series, someone gets swept

      30/20 75/50 190/125

      total loss of almost 300, and you started with 400.... thats why, a loss early would kill you...

      thats why I was thinking of a lower unit.... I think a seasoned pro at this, which most wouldnt try this, but if they would, they would say for a 20 unit your bankroll should be minimum 2000

      the results are the same though... they are hinged on the unit size, not bankroll size... doing the same progression would still yield 50 K on a perfect season.... the 2000 would just be to keep you in the game if there was an early sweep
      This Is what I'm trying to explain to my wife.....lmao

      She thinks I'm gonna bet it straight up...
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      • stingyrivers
        SBR MVP
        • 01-15-08
        • 1240

        #318
        that is a decent idea... I think you should also come up with a max number of plays at any given time... there are always going to be a ton of series going on that look like near locks for this....

        most seasoned pros at this wouldnt try it or suggest it purely based on the chase aspect of it.... by and large any martingale system is considered negative EV in the longrun, and potentially bankrupting in the hypothetical catastrophic short run, kind of like that pitt/cubbies series you pointed out... if that did fit the system, the chase aspect of this on a series like that would end a season
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        • stingyrivers
          SBR MVP
          • 01-15-08
          • 1240

          #319
          okay... you need some positive evidence.... well, based on the structure we set up for bankroll and progression we set up, if you dont take a loss in the first month or two, it would end up taking more than two losses to not show a profit

          so in other words, the unthinkable would have to happen multiple times to go broke
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          • DeHoyos
            SBR Sharp
            • 03-30-10
            • 306

            #320
            Those can be forecasted way in advance though.... right Sting????

            So what your saying is it's the first month that's the most crucial???
            Comment
            • stingyrivers
              SBR MVP
              • 01-15-08
              • 1240

              #321
              yeah, the first month builds a buffer while the unit becomes a smaller percentage on your bankroll... and the progression I made is actually really aggressive, it can be tinkered with and a little less aggression and still show a nice profit on the year, I mean as it is, it is shooting for something in the area of 5000% roi on the year which is ridiculous... but if you never got swept like last year, it would be hit....

              you definitely cant take any sweeps in the first month or you would be starting over
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              • stingyrivers
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-08
                • 1240

                #322
                thats the other thing... as far as the progression goes... if you get deep into it and take a loss and get knocked back, you have to drop your unit back down to what it was at that new bankroll, and then continue from there and hope for no more sweeps
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                • stingyrivers
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-15-08
                  • 1240

                  #323
                  the upset tourney of the century killed me considering my basketball strategy is big favs ML parlays... so the most I will be starting with is 400, and possibly something in the range of 200... I still got 5 days to put something along those lines together for sunday night
                  Comment
                  • DeHoyos
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 03-30-10
                    • 306

                    #324
                    I had alot on the Cuse....

                    I'm already scheming on how to get atleast 400...

                    I think If I willingly walk into a sweep I can live with that...I don't think I want to blindly follow any teams per se...
                    Comment
                    • stingyrivers
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-15-08
                      • 1240

                      #325
                      Gtown cost me about 1400 in a payoff... which pretty much derailed my bankroll... I had built up 1100 from 50 in about 3 weeks playing ML parlays in basketball, using a progression like this, and then the tourney killed it....

                      Gtown, then Nova, then Kansas, then Cuse (cuse cost me a payoff of about 700 on my comeback)

                      my longshot is I got 6 bucks all in today on a four team if-bet

                      URI

                      TB Rays

                      Dayton

                      Mizz St -6

                      that would get me to 26 lol, then I would try to parlay that up to 400 over 5 days into sunday....

                      sounds ridiculous, but I did it off the 50 to start with up to 1100, so it is a long shot, but could happen
                      Comment
                      • DeHoyos
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-30-10
                        • 306

                        #326
                        How long you been betting??? for me it's been about 8 years i'm ready for my first 50K+ baseball season it's long overdue.......
                        Comment
                        • stingyrivers
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-15-08
                          • 1240

                          #327
                          overall, about 20 years... I am not that old, just started young... betting seriously, on and off for about 5 years... I also tried the play poker for a living thing too, that is really tough, especially without any decent bankroll behind you, but I got by doing it here and there... I have been searching for something like this for a long time to apply that progression and get the big build up relatively quickly... I worked something in craps that is similar to this, where you are laying 15 to 1 against an event happening that is about 11 to 1 to happen in true odds, with the goal of dodging loses just like this system in order to compound winnings... I went one night and won 79 times in a row playing it... I went back another day and saw the event happen about 5 times in 20 chances... that was because the odds are in your favor in not losing you are about 92 % to win, but it is just dice, losses can come at anytime.... so I turned back to sports about two months ago
                          Comment
                          • DeHoyos
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-30-10
                            • 306

                            #328
                            Nice.I just saw some shit where Phil Ivey won 800K playin craps in like 10 minutes fkn crazy.....

                            I'm sayin let's both get big rolls and roll with Philly not to get swept on Monday....

                            And no those will not be my final words....
                            Comment
                            • stingyrivers
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-15-08
                              • 1240

                              #329
                              those guys got it made... it is easy to make money once you have a ridiculous amount.... think about it, if I gave you 500 bucks, could you make 10 bucks a day off it? I know I could.... well that is the equivelant for Ivey and Helmuth... except their 500 is 5,000,000 so the ten bucks they make a day is 10,000 using the same amount of effort and risk we would to make 10 bucks off our 500....

                              those guys are definitely nuts though... they play 2000 - 4000 No limit as their game for fun... now that is ridiculous, I am sweating trying to come up with 400 for baseball, and that amount is one quarter of Ivey's small blind in one hand of poker tonight.... lol
                              Comment
                              • G's pks
                                Restricted User
                                • 01-01-09
                                • 22251

                                #330
                                Stop all the babbling I will show you mopes how it is done... I will post here in a little while so some of you have a clue.
                                Comment
                                • stingyrivers
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-15-08
                                  • 1240

                                  #331
                                  I am loving this system actually.... Halladay and Cole Hamels no way they both lose to the nats, and even if by some weird miracle they do both lose, you still got game three to bail you out
                                  Comment
                                  • stingyrivers
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-15-08
                                    • 1240

                                    #332
                                    please G teach me something I dont know... youre cool and all, just leave the assumptions at the door bro... everything is cool in here, it really doesnt make sense to get offensive with people when it is unprovoked....

                                    my suspicion is that you and 99 percent of this forum are all in the same boat.... I think we have something good worked out... tail if you want to... or based on your assumptions, just fade us and get rich right?
                                    Comment
                                    • G's pks
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-01-09
                                      • 22251

                                      #333
                                      A season long winning thread everyday for the season...might have been the only here last year...so read and learn...

                                      Here take a look at someone here who knows how to do this properly and win... Read all the rules get a clue and watch me make some money this year. The rules listed within must be followed exactly no variance. I did all the backtesting and know which teams to play and when. Remember that one posted loss is equal to three games lost. Look how along the way strong capping can lead to a nice winning record on the side. This system can be extremely dangerous and is not for the someone with a weak stomach...

                                      Here degens is how it works instead of someone telling you what they think will happen here is someone who knows how to do it.
                                      Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
                                      Comment
                                      • G's pks
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-01-09
                                        • 22251

                                        #334
                                        Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                        please G teach me something I dont know... youre cool and all, just leave the assumptions at the door bro... everything is cool in here, it really doesnt make sense to get offensive with people when it is unprovoked....

                                        my suspicion is that you and 99 percent of this forum are all in the same boat.... I think we have something good worked out... tail if you want to... or based on your assumptions, just fade us and get rich right?

                                        Boy are you dumb...read above and see how it works..
                                        Comment
                                        • DeHoyos
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 03-30-10
                                          • 306

                                          #335
                                          Show us how it's done G's....


                                          Hey have you started a new thread this spring?????


                                          Comment
                                          • stingyrivers
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-15-08
                                            • 1240

                                            #336
                                            I am not reading a 40 page thread.... my guess, is you employ this type of strategy with some capping to pinpoint the right series to play, but you dont use a martingale, you use something similar to a paroli system of wagering so the risk isnt huge and the payoff is still solid... and yes to answer your question I guess I am dumb
                                            Comment
                                            • G's pks
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 01-01-09
                                              • 22251

                                              #337
                                              Originally posted by DeHoyos
                                              Show us how it's done G's....

                                              Read my whole thread especially the money management system...it is the key and just picking teams/series blindly will not work! See how the first system failed just doing what you guys are talking about... A season long of winning is harder then you think... Will probably start it rolling a week or two into season...
                                              Comment
                                              • G's pks
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 01-01-09
                                                • 22251

                                                #338
                                                Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                                I am not reading a 40 page thread.... my guess, is you employ this type of strategy with some capping to pinpoint the right series to play, but you dont use a martingale, you use something similar to a paroli system of wagering so the risk isnt huge and the payoff is still solid... and yes to answer your question I guess I am dumb
                                                40 pages and over 20,000 views of a winning thread..get it...

                                                Good luck it takes a ton of patience and even better money management skills...
                                                Comment
                                                • DeHoyos
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 03-30-10
                                                  • 306

                                                  #339
                                                  Seriously though G's how can you say "take a look at someone here who knows how to do this properly" I mean a monkey could pick the top 3 and bot 3 teams blindly all year....

                                                  Are you talkling about chasing after less on gm2 and 3????
                                                  Comment
                                                  • G's pks
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-01-09
                                                    • 22251

                                                    #340
                                                    Originally posted by DeHoyos
                                                    Show us how it's done G's....


                                                    Hey have you started a new thread this spring?????



                                                    I do not like betting exhibition games...because they are an exhibition/not real.

                                                    My thread should pop up in a week or two...the hardest part was how many comments I had to have deleted... Once quite a few realized I kept winning the usual lets try to ruin his thread remarks popped up daily... The mods did a nice job removing...remember there are some here that really believe everyone loses...that is not true.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stingyrivers
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-15-08
                                                      • 1240

                                                      #341
                                                      that is what he is saying, you cant blindly just pick 3 top and 3 bottom and mechanically make those picks all year and expect to win... which is exactly what we have been saying all night... he just didnt read that part of our discussion I guess... the point is you have to go into each series weighing significant factors of whether to include it or exclude it as a play... and then he just has a different management in the wagering so you are capitalizing on early wins in a series but not losing your roll on a lost series...

                                                      it is good, congrats G on the winning ways, most never get there
                                                      Comment
                                                      • G's pks
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 01-01-09
                                                        • 22251

                                                        #342
                                                        Originally posted by DeHoyos
                                                        Seriously though G's how can you say "take a look at someone here who knows how to do this properly" I mean a monkey could pick the top 3 and bot 3 teams blindly all year....

                                                        Are you talkling about chasing after less on gm2 and 3????

                                                        Look thru my picks...I never based anything on the top or bottom teams... The rules are listed...that is where everyone kept tripping up! I had quite a few at the end that sent me e-mails saying they followed betting more and won. Then those who would vary from the rules and be left in the dark.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DeHoyos
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 03-30-10
                                                          • 306

                                                          #343
                                                          What page are the rules on????
                                                          Comment
                                                          • stingyrivers
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-15-08
                                                            • 1240

                                                            #344
                                                            well G what do you think.... CWS, and Philly look strong this week for playing against the sweep dont you think?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stingyrivers
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-15-08
                                                              • 1240

                                                              #345
                                                              he isnt going to tell you DeHoyos, it is part of his schtick you are supposed to jump through the hoops for the reward of his knowledge
                                                              Comment
                                                              • G's pks
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 01-01-09
                                                                • 22251

                                                                #346
                                                                Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                                                that is what he is saying, you cant blindly just pick 3 top and 3 bottom and mechanically make those picks all year and expect to win... which is exactly what we have been saying all night... he just didnt read that part of our discussion I guess... the point is you have to go into each series weighing significant factors of whether to include it or exclude it as a play... and then he just has a different management in the wagering so you are capitalizing on early wins in a series but not losing your roll on a lost series...

                                                                it is good, congrats G on the winning ways, most never get there

                                                                Thanks honestly it takes me over three hours each time to filter a new group of series. I do everything by hand to make sure I see each stat. So I need to have between 6-10 hours a week to do it. But the hardest part is once you get the system rolling if you are winning people will come in and try to disrupt your winnng with their own picks and people following sometimes think it is yours!

                                                                When you guys start it just a thought... Have all your picks maybe bolded in blue so anyone following can see right away and know they are system picks.

                                                                Someone actually earlier here mentioned bet only when ace is not picthing in a series that is ridiculous! Of course you want the best pitchers on the mound for your team.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DeHoyos
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 03-30-10
                                                                  • 306

                                                                  #347
                                                                  "he isnt going to tell you DeHoyos, it is part of his schtick you are supposed to jump through the hoops for the reward of his knowledge"


                                                                  Pfffttt LMFAO!!!!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • G's pks
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 01-01-09
                                                                    • 22251

                                                                    #348
                                                                    Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                                                    well G what do you think.... CWS, and Philly look strong this week for playing against the sweep dont you think?

                                                                    I have not even started looking at baseball yet... The key is starting it once the season settles in and ending it very early! Because a lot of teams after Sept. 1st do not care anymore...

                                                                    Are you guys doing strictly home teams? Remember the juice is going to be very high every game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DeHoyos
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-30-10
                                                                      • 306

                                                                      #349
                                                                      How does $4200 on Pettitte sound to you?????
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Nick6570
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 04-15-09
                                                                        • 163

                                                                        #350
                                                                        I like it im on board
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