Why would that b ebeter? To bet only after a loss in the first game?
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It also raises your winning percentage because the game 2,3 and 4 winning percentages are much higher after a game 1 loss. There was a guy on another forum doing this with betting RL instead of ML that was doing extremely well.Comment -
Good info here guys.
Since I don't have 10K bankroll to throw around....I may just do the system the OP stated to win .5 units, and go from there.
Then Do the same thing with a homestand, but waiting to see if they lose the first game, then go from there to win 1 unit to start.Comment -
the odds are gonna be quite low or what? what would a good home team have? 1.50-1.60?Comment -
The system integrity plays are solid... thanks for following!! This year I'm going to do a 3 game chase with it on the -1RL too.Comment -
can we just use the top/bottom 4-5 power rated teams for this instead of assuming who will have the better home/road records??? thanks.Comment -
Just a heads up, this is a terrible idea. As soon as you read the word "chase" you should be running for the hills.
I did this for 2 years straight in the past. I made some very good money in the short term, and got killed in the long term. Teams will get swept at home, even the best teams. And when your team falls behind 0-2 in the series, Vegas will be ready for you with gigantic amounts of juice. One sweep is going to cancel out 26 of your wins. (2 units to win 1. 6 units to win 3, 18 units to win 9)
I am not calling the owner of this thread a liar. If he is claiming big profits over a year or two I believe him. But be very skeptical and do not be surprised at all when his picks go burning up in flames.Comment -
Just go back and look at the Cards-Rockies series from last summer. At the time the Rockies were beyond terrible and they were terrible on the road. The Cardinals were impeccable at home and were considered one of the best teams in the NL. Of course later the Rockies went on a big run, but this was well before that.
Rockies swept a 4 game series in St. Louis. If you had been following this system (which you would have been because there was a giant gap between STL and COL at the time) you would have lost EVERYTHING.
DO NOT ATTEMPT CHASES.Comment -
ok so are you betting ML on these games? Because it seems to me that if you are betting on the Top 4 and against the Bottom 4 you're not going to get very good ML's are you?
I'm having a hard time understanding how you wouldn't get totally CRUSHED long term using this system?
OP are you a book maker? LOLComment -
if greinke was on the hill at the red sox, depending on the matchup they could be favored...it all depends just make sure you pay attention before blindly getting involved in any seriesComment -
I am not disputing that this system is dangerous and you make a valid point, however this is my first post of the day and I want the points so... At the time that series began the Cards were not in the top 5 home team wins by percentage, they were close, but not in there. The Rockies were okay for away games, however my point is, I do not believe this series would have qualified. I thought the OP was about the top 5 home teams, idk, I don't remember, I guess I could go back and read it, but like I said, I just wanted my daily points
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To each its own. IMO.... This idea of "chase" or what ever you want to call it , is stupid. Baseball is the best sport to bet and make money, why do this and expose your bankroll, it makes no sence. But if you do this I wish you luck.Comment -
The good thing is that you won't need a high win%...
You can make money if you combine a good system with moneymanagement.
Besides Baseball the (College Football / Spread) NCAAF is a good place for a chase system...Comment -
very interesting... here are a few observations that I am begging for some feedback on....
I am seeking an extremely solid system for baseball as I am in dire straights, and in desperate need of a lifeline for the summer... and chase has me nervous, and not even sure I can do it or anyone can with a small bankroll, say anything less than a thousand...
you have to consider that you are going to have a few series going at once and if you are at step 2 or 3 in multiple series at the same time, you will have your entire bankroll laid out, or worse come up short in making complete bets...
however, I like eveything I have read a lot, and you all have done great work on this... I think you guys could have filtered a bit more though, for instance... you want what I would guess is likely undefeated in the past season or two?
how about top 5 home teams not to get swept but only against bottom 5 road teams... yes, you would be betting a lot less series, however, I would venture a good guess that based on the records you guys have stated vs. all opponents, I bet this system is undefeated...
anyway we could find this out? I am willing to pitch in with research, dont know where you guys are going online to filter results...
please give me lots of feedback, life and march madness has distributed quite a beatdown on me...
let's buck the system and all make a ton with the polished system this year... prove the naysayers wrong
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okay guys, I went on my own advice... I tracked 2009 I used top teams: Bos, NYY, LAA, TB, CWS, Phi, LAD, STL
not to get swept at home by the worst teams: Pitt, wash, balt, clev, kc, hou, sd...
I was almost right, here were the results:
Boston 4 -0
NYY 6 - 0
LAA 4 - 0
TB 6 -0
CWS 9 -0
Philly 6 -1 (swept at home by baltimore mid season)
LAD 4 - 0
St L 8 -0
total on season: 47 -1 not too bad, and as I thought, almost undefeated, if there was a way to screen out philly, would have been undefeated in 2009...
any thoughts on this?Comment -
now I am all about researching this too... hadnt seen it on here yet so just so you know fading the worst teams on the road for 2009 was 166 -3 using the following teams... Pitt, Kc, clev, hou, sd, wash and balt
just fading these four: pitt, kc, sd and hou was 98 -0 none of those four teams swept an away series in all of 2009
also... if you stop the original system on sept 1, which in mlb there is good reason to... the top 6 teams mentioned by OP (bos, nyy, lad, laa, tb, cws) were 114 - 0 between opening day and sept. 1... all of there home sweeps came after sept 1 last yearComment -
Wow...great info stingy! So what do you think we should go with? So your system says to Play ON the top home teams at home when they are playing a bad road team...and to play AGAINST the bottom four teams on away games no matter what?? Please let me know exactly what you are thinking...I want to have a solid system for MLB as well...let's talk more about this so we can be on the same page...Comment -
great research stingy!Comment -
Great research only one problem...when the season starts this year we arent going to know who the best 6 and worst 6 teams are. It might be until mid season until you have enough info to say who the best and worst 6 are.Comment -
thanks guys... as far as my thoughts and plan... I have been mentally working this out and plan on hammering out the kinks in my own approach this weekend... there are a couple issues beyond the chase aspect... and tsunami nails what I have been trying to grasp on the head... this really comes down to team selection... as others have stated... your profit or loss on the season is squarely on which teams you include and exclude in this preseason, and for the most part we dont know who is going to perform as expected... Now at the same time, we do actually know who the top lets say 3 are going to be regardless... as well as the bottom 3, which means it is that range of 4th, 5th and 6th best and worst that we are speculating about...
This is huge because if you run the numbers, you do great as OP informed us as long as you have a win rate of about 93% on the season, and if you have anything less than that, you at best break even on the year, this means, if we include a team in the group that takes multiple sweeps at home on the season, your season is shot as well as your bankroll... so, this kind of has been leading me to narrowing this down further, perhaps just to the likely top 3 and likely bottom 3, that would still give for plenty of money making opportunities...
I am also ironing out a few other ideas to try to narrow this down to try to avoid any losses at all... one idea I had is this... so far it is a blind blanket approach once you have the teams selected... what if you add in a control once the season begins with a key variable going into each series... the biggest one that strikes me as a good one would be the pitching match-ups... and lets say hypothetically, you had as a rule, the play is on team a, b, and c for the season not to get swept at home, unless the heave their 4 and 5 guys in the rotation going in that series, in this scenario, you pass on that series... just an idea, but would seem to potentially still keep to the integrity of this system and at the same time throughout the season avoid playing on a series that may have a bit more subjective risk to it....
Also, tsunami and others are right, we dont know exactly the top 5 right now, though we got a good handle on the likely top 3, so we know we are picking good teams in general, beyond that point when the season starts, we can screen out certain series in the same way as the pitching matchup hypothetical, by saying if one of our teams for the season is playing a team with a plus .550 win pct, the play is off... that way, we may not know for sure we have the best of the best teams before the season starts... this control can avoid us making a play on our teams in a series against teams that at that point in time we know are good ?
just random thoughts, and would love feedback as before the end of the week I would like to have a set in stone approach for opening day with whatever good ideas to implement that we come up with....
we may be splitting hairs a bit as I do think the OP is correct, this approach is not extremely likely to lose with the known great teams, the only thing that makes this risky is having the chase involved and essentially as one poster said, as I see it too, this only falls apart if you happen to come into a year that proves to be an outlyer and just completely out of whack, such as the sox being swept at fenway out of nowhere... and because of the chase aspect, it wouldnt take a whole lot of deviation from the past couple seasons to make this a - EV strategy.... but Im trying, and have high hopes for it... I do think there is a nugget here that can be developed into the strong chance of season long success....
on side note for those considering this... Bankroll size etc has not been addressed much here yet on this, and you really want to plan for multiple series going on at the same time, and possibly at game 2 or 3 of each at the same time, which means, even if your unit size in terms of goal of each series is 10 bucks, you would need hundreds behind that to pull this off... in fact, my thought is it is likely to consider your unit size in this approach to be the max loss on a series rather than the net gain in a win... that way your bankroll is in proportion to what you potentially lose in a lost series than what you potentially gain in winning series...
let's hammer this out boys an have a great summerComment -
Stingy...great ideas...I think that we should go with the TOP 3 HOME teams and the WORST 3 AWAY teams...I'm thinking we play on the Yankees, Red Sox, and either Phillies or Cardinals at Home, and we play AGAINST the Nationals, Pirates, and Royals on their away games...we could limit the chase to two games...lets say that the home team we have, take the Red Sox for example, if they lose their first home game of the series, then we will bet on their next 2 games to try to get a win. This way we are not chasing 3 games and putting a lot of our bankroll at risk...what do you think? If we can limit our chase to only 2 games, do you think this would be better? And what do you think about doing this AND playing some on the ML and some on the RL so that we don't have such high juice...
What do you guys think??????Comment -
jolm... I think we can get this down to something good...
my first thoughts are I considered just the two game chase, the problem with that is... we miss the wins on first game wins in a series, and lets say the series was going to be a loss anyway, all we are doing is cutting down the dollars we lose on a losing series, but we arent accumulating wins that would be won if we played on the first game wins, so in other words, we are lessening losses, but lowering our win percentage on the season as the losses would stay the same on the year, but the wins on the year would go down... so it seems to balance itself out with not a huge advantage in the long run...
also... I started to back test for runlines, and it seems like it is about the same win percentage, for instance, the redsox last year, whether on ML or RL, you ended up with the same wins and losses, which is good... but my only concern is we want as a main goal avoiding losses period, and using the runline actually increases the chances of lost series, say if the redsox lose game one, win game two by 1 and lose game three... where we would have got a win in game two on the ML, by playing the RL we take a loss on the whole series... the only real way to truly see the value in either of these approaches is to back test last season using all your suggestions... let me start doing that for a couple teams and get back here witht he results...
I do like the idea of just using 3 best and 3 worst.... I just want to chart out the schedule this year and see how many plays that would give us throughout the year... probably in the ball park of 120 series or so on the year...
I definitely agree with your list... NYY and Boston seem solid... though the Phils and Cards may be the best in the NL they make me nervous a bit because they each had muliple home sweepes last year, especially the cards who took like 4 sweeps at home... I kind of like how LAA is 51 -0 in past two years in avoiding home sweeps... but that team kind of has some questions to answer this year in their roster, and if you really look into last year, a handful of those winning series came down to game 3 of the series, which would have been nerve wracking
The 3 worst are very decent too as Pitt and washington are clear to lose close to hundred games a piece, and KC should be the worst of the AL, though I hate betting against their young pitchers... I have a feeling Houston will be pretty piss poor too...
The way I see it in team selections for best and worst is this, take the best of the best, teams that are likely to have 90 plus wins on the year... but try to avoid teams that have a suspect bullpen, teams that are solid but their bullpen may give games away late, which makes Philly scary...
and for the worst teams, take the obvious worst teams, likely not to get many more wins than 70 ont he year, but, also try to avoid teams that have young talent in development that could have a break out year, which is a good reason to avoid baltimore this year... and Pitt should still be horrible, but they have a very young developing roster so we may want to keep an eye on them....
I think if we put our heads together on this throughout the week, we should be very ready for next weekendComment -
okay at quick glance it seems the two game chase the way we were thinking of it is not a good idea... for the redsox alone last year, 15 out of the 22 wins on them would have been skipped by doing this... which means, it completely turned this into a losing strategy... mostly because it seems with the good teams, the majority of the wins actually comes in the first game of the series... which makes sense I guess... they are the home team and favored in game one almost always... this is actually good to see though, it indicates more than half the time there is no chase at all just a win and stop in game oneComment -
OK...that is good to know stingy...so what do you think we should use as filters without lessening our amount of plays by too much?? I suppose we could use a filter like you said that uses good pitchers for the home team? It just seems like it would be hard to keep track of during the season...it would be nice to just have our games set out before the season starts and go with it...
I don't know...I just think that if we stick with the TOP 3 teams and the BOTTOM 3 teams, then we should be good...and maybe we could use a different money management instead of a chase??Comment -
I have a calculator that tells you how much to put on the RL and how much to put on the ML of a team so that the only way you lose money is if the team wins by exactly 1 run...maybe we could do this on all games so that we reduce our losses???Comment -
I have been doing lots of backtesting on this system since i read about it. I am still trying to narrow some stuff down, but here is what I found:
-your best bet is the play the -1 runline. this can be created if your book does not offer it. this drastically reduces the amount of money you have to lay on the c bet, and d bet which i will get into...
-after looking at the results over the past 2 years, i wondered what would happen if you played this as a 4 game chase. it cut out a large number of losses! because if you think about it, when a road team travels, the first game is always the most difficult. they just arrived the night before, sometimes late, and the first game in the visitors park is always a little more uncomfortable than the later games. so by betting a 4 game chase, you are getting 2 "first" games in the system. (ex: boston plays 6 straight home games, 3 against KC and then 3 against Toronto. if KC sweeps them, you are playing a "D" bet on the first game of the Toronto series)
-another thing i looked at was skipping games where an "ace" was going for the bad road teams. this basically came down to skipping the royals games when greinke was starting. this also improved the number, because if you think about it, he will get 15+ wins more than likely, so by simply skipping him, KC is going from around 70 wins to 55 wins, and that does not even include games that they win after he comes out. just a thought...this may be effective with washington later in the year if strassburg is up and dominating.
i will come back to you guys with some hard numbers after i get done organizing them, but the 4 game chase and the -1 runline look like the best way to go!Comment -
Wow...Awesome Reverend...thanks for the insight!!! Please let us know more...I will give you points my man..thanks a ton...also Reverend, what teams are you going to use??Comment -
whats up guys... nice work reverend... it is good to see we got this rolling... here is what I am thinking now... two things occured to me, first the thing that could make this a potential loser is the c and d bets in a series going bad, that is where most of the money in the chase is laid down... and also when I took that quick look last night, I noticed 15 wins with the redsox came in game one, and most of the rest of the wins came in game two... it only went down to a third game in one series... so it got me thinking about a two game chase...
Let's assume for simplicity sake you are trying to win 10 bucks a series... and also lets assume the odds you have to lay each night would be -150 the series would go like this:
game 1 - 15 to win 10 game 2 - 37 to win 25 game 3 - 93 to win 62
you see where about two thirds of the risk is on that c bet... so here is what I am going to back test today.... on the best teams, just do the system and chase for game one and two of the seriesm and if they dont win either game, stop there and count that at a loss at only a third of the net loss...
with boston last year, I think the record would still be on the season 20 -2 but the dollar amount of losses would be more than cut in half and still get 20 wins....
here is the risk I noticed in this approach... the numbers OP posted here were phenomenal, but... they had to be that good, anything less than that in results would have netted a loss....
like I said before, if you are winning 10 with each win... with the full chase you are losing at least 150 on a loss... so if a team goes 23 -1 like they have been the past couple years for OP, you would win 230, and lose 150 for a net gain... however, if you add one more loss and your screwed... 22 - 2 you win 220 and lose 300... basically a team getting swept twice in a season makes it a loser
now with this two game chase approach... the redsox last year doing the 2 game chase, no c or d bets... the record was 20 -2 210 on the wints, but only 50 on the losses... still a net gain because there were no c or d bets in the losses...
I am going to backtest this for all the teams today and post here in a bit... let's work this guys, we are getting thereComment -
stingy, the info is greatly appreciatedComment -
you are right... I was rushing... I meant doing the two game chase would result in about 50 dollars on a loss... using 10 dollar unit... 15 loss on game one and 37 dollar loss on game two.. a total of 52... good catch man... but yeah, you see where I was going... the dollars in the loss column would be cut in half, and the overall win pct. would not drop significantly... I am starting to backtest this approach nowComment -
also... pretty much what this system is doing is placing one bet, that the team will not get swept at home and laying 15 to 1 odds on the bet... which is probably close to the true odds on it happening... so in the long run it could balance out, unless the true odds on these teams not getting swept at home is much higher like 20 to 1 or a 95 % chance against it... if that were the case this strategy would have a long run edge... but the tough thing is there is no way to know that without years of results... and the variables always change in terms of who the best teams are...Comment -
okay boys, ready for some numbers... I back tested last season for the top 12 home teams... backtested for the 2 game chase... and the 3 game chase... now if we assume a lose in the 2 game chase would be 50, and a loss in the 3 game chase would be 150, based on trying to win 10... here are the results... the first numbers are the two game chase record and the second numbers are the three game chase, with a net dollar result next to the records... also... I already decided the season is opening day until sept.1, so these numbers do not include september...
NYY 18 -0 (+180) 18 - 0 (+180)
Bos 17 -2 (+70) 19 -0 (+190)
LAD 17 -1 (+120) 18 -0 (+180)
TB 18 -0 (+180) 18 - 0 (+180)
LAA 16 -4 (-40) 20 - 0 (+200)
CWS 20 - 0 (+200) 20 - 0 (+200)
Phi 15 - 6 (-150) 18 -3 (-270)
STL 16 -3 (+10) 17 -2 (-130)
SFG 17 - 3 (+20) 19 -1 (+40)
SEA 18 - 3 (+30) 20 - 1 (+50)
CHIC 16 - 2 (+60) 17 - 1 (+20)
MN 20 - 2 (+100) 20 - 2 (-100)
you can see why Philly and St L makes me nervous... but check out the Minny numbers... this kind of leads me to believe the 2 game chase is much better... less risk with about the same win pct... what do you guys think? I am starting to lean toward the best teams with a 2 game home chaseComment -
wow, I just tallied the results on these 12 teams for each and you actually had a bigger net gain on the season on the 2 game chase than the 3 game chase +780 vs. +740 with less on the line throughout the season... this seems to seal the decision on which to go with doesnt it?
as a funny side note... has anyone noticed that this system will have us putting the first bet of the season Sunday night on boston at fenway against the reigning world champs and Sabathia on the hill we may be starting off chasing on day 2 of the season
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