MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

FUqer · 03-30-18, 08:51 AM

Friday 3/30/18 MLB Plays

¤ Giants/Dodgers Under 7 +110
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Cueto has faced the Dodgers in LA 9 times and the only times the game went over 7 runs was in 2010 when he was still with the Reds. In those 9 games in LA, he only had to face Kershaw twice, so I believe Wood will be the 2nd best Pitcher he has faced in those games. It wouldn't surprise me to see LA do most of the damage here, cuz the Giants offense is pretty weak, so the TT might be a good play also.

In 9 starts in LA vs the Dodgers for Cueto

2.67	2.78	7.56	7.56	1.11	0.44	2.00	0.56	2.78	13.11	6.67	0.70	2.44	3.20
3.22	2.33	7.78	7.11	1.44	0.78	2.33	0.78	4.00	12.89	6.22	0.30	2.11	3.80

FUqer · 03-30-18, 09:16 AM

Tyler Skaggs 8-2 team record in April, 3-2 on the Road.
Sean Manaea 2-4 team record in April, 2-2 at Home.

Masahiro Tanaka 13-6 team record in April, 6-3 on the Road.
Aaron Sanchez 4-8 team record in April, 2-4 at Home.

Nick Pivetta 0-1 team record in April, 0-1 on the Road.
Mike Foltynewicz 0-4 team record in April, 0-1 at Home.

Tyler Anderson 3-3 team record in April, 2-2 on the Road.
Robbie Ray 6-4 team record in April, 3-3 at Home.

Johnny Cueto 23-20 team record in April, 11-10 on the Road.
Alex Wood 5-14 team record in April, 2-4 at Home.

Kyle Hendricks 7-6 team record in April, 4-3 on the Road.
Caleb Smith 0-0 team record in April, 0-0 at Home.

Jhoulys Chacin 13-10 team record in April, 6-7 on the Road.
Joey Lucchesi 0-0 team record in April, 0-0 at Home.

Dallas Keuchel 15-6 team record in April, 8-3 on the Road.
Doug Fister 11-13 team record in April, 8-4 at Home.

David Price 21-15 team record in April, 11-6 on the Road.
Blake Snell 2-4 team record in April, 1-1 at Home.

Max Scherzer 26-19 team record in April, 12-11 on the Road.
Homer Bailey 8-12 team record in April, 6-4 at Home.

Ivan Nova 13-8 team record in April, 5-4 on the Road.
Jordan Zimmermann 23-14 team record in April, 13-8 at Home.

FUqer · 03-30-18, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday 3/30/18 MLB Plays

¤ Giants/Dodgers Under 7 +110
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¤ Pirates -1 -105

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Just looking at the lineups, I think the Pirates are the better team and I like Nova better than Zimmerman. Nova has been staring at his 6 game win-less streak all off season and showed up this year 10 lbs lighter. I'm liking the line movement, and I'm hoping the Tigers pick up where they left off last year at losing Home day games. GL!

FUqer · 03-30-18, 12:35 PM

whew, Nova settled down and started hitting his spots to get out of a bases loaded no out spot, nice!

FUqer · 03-30-18, 12:58 PM

served up some pretty pathetic meatballs that inning, smh

Regul8er · 03-30-18, 01:03 PM

Oh this Pittsburgh game is a longgggg wayy from being over man.....Zimmermann will eventually get touched up for a handful, and the bullpen will have trouble getting guys out all year. Pittsburgh could erupt for a 5 run inning at any time.

FUqer · 03-30-18, 05:45 PM

That game had about everything, fun one to watch, even though it last 5 1/2 hours. It feels extra good to get a win in extra innings after the luck I had with them last year.

2daBank · 03-30-18, 05:57 PM

I was wondering if there was ever a worse starting pitcher matchup for opening day than nova/Zimmerman? I'm sure there have been but certainly doesn't bode well for either team this season!! Lol, I see tigers pen is still a dumpster fire!!

FUqer · 03-30-18, 06:03 PM

Pitching was tough to watch, Braunt was at least able to get some guys out.

FUqer · 03-30-18, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday 3/30/18 MLB Plays

¤ Giants/Dodgers Under 7 +110
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Originally posted by FUqer

¤ Pirates -1 -105

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¤ Phillies FF -108

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Wind blowing out pretty hard might not be good for Folty and Pivetta pitched pretty good against them last year. GL!

2daBank · 03-30-18, 06:28 PM

Actually just did same play with phils ff. Got lucky w braves yesterday, big thank you to stupid manager for yanking Nola at under 70 pitches! How stupid was that? You could see bravos get a sparkle in their eyes when they took nova out for the suspect pen!! If we hit this ff might look to hit braves live! Lol

FUqer · 03-30-18, 08:27 PM

Pivetta just had to hit the guy with nobody on and 2 outs with a 0-2 count, damn push.

2daBank · 03-30-18, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Pivetta just had to hit the guy with nobody on and 2 outs with a 0-2 count, damn push.

Can't believe he blew that, but at least Phils got one in 5th for push. Aggravates me when they go on to take lead in 6th. Hate that. Lol

2daBank · 03-30-18, 09:50 PM

Man so pissed after pushing ff I forgot bout my hit braves live when they got down idea. Think gonna fade phils often live when they leading in 5-6 inning, at least until they show ability to hold a lead, feel like that haunted them last year as well.

FUqer · 03-31-18, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

Friday's Total Projections

(Overall = 7-5) (Overs = 3-2) Unders = 4-3)

HOU@TEX U9.5 (8.3) -1.2

COL@ARI O8.5 (9.6) +1.1

CHC@MIA U8.5 (8.0) -0.5

PIT@DET U9.5 (9.0) -0.5

SF@LAD U7.5 (7.1) -0.4

~~PHI@ATL O9.0 (9.4) +0.4~~

NYY@TOR U9.0 (8.6) -0.4

BOS@TB U7.5 (7.3) -0.2

WAS@CIN U8.5 (8.4) -0.1

MIL@SD O8.0 (8.8) +0.8

LAA@OAK U9.0 (7.8) -1.2

9-1-1

FUqer · 03-31-18, 06:04 AM

Friday 3/30/18 MLB Results

2-0-1 for +2.10

WIN - ¤ Pirates -1 -105
~~PUSH - ¤ Phillies FF -108~~

WIN - ¤ Giants/Dodgers Under 7 +110
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Season = 2-2 for +0.10
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ML = 0-2 for -2.00
(Dogs = 0-2 for -2.00)
(Favs = 0-0 for +0.00)

RL = 1-0 for +1.00

O/U = 1-0 for +1.10
(Overs = 0-0 for +0.00)
(Unders = 1-0 for +1.10)

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Recent Results

3/30 = 2-0 for +2.10
3/29 = 0-2 for -2.00
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Yesterday meant a lot more to me than just going 2-0. I was able to get some monkeys off my back from last year quite early this year. Last year I think I set a record for most xtra inning losses going 0-29 all the way past the All-Star break before I got a win and I also started 0-9 in the Dog of The Day, so it feels good getting those out of the way early.

2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

9-1-1

Wow. Nice work bro

FUqer · 03-31-18, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Wow. Nice work bro

too bad I only played one of them, lol

2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:37 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

too bad I only played one of them, lol

Well at least tell me it wasn't the loss or push!! Lol

FUqer · 03-31-18, 07:37 AM

Saturday's Total Projections

(Overall = 16-6) (Overs = 5-2) Unders = 11-4)

CHW/KC O8.5 (9.2) +0.7

NYY/TOR U9.0 (8.3) -0.7

COL/ARI O8.5 (9.1) +0.6

WAS/CIN O8.0 (8.6) +0.6

CLE/SEA U7.0 (6.4) -0.6

HOU/TEX U10.0 (9.5) -0.5

STL/NYM U7.5 (7.0) -0.5

CHC/MIA U8.5 (8.1) -0.4

SF/LAD U8.0 (7.6) -0.4

LAA/OAK U9.0 (8.6) -0.4

MIL/SD O8.0 (8.3) +0.3

PHI/ATL U8.5 (8.4) -0.1

BOS/TB N/A (7.6) N/A

MIN/BAL P9.5 (9.5) -0.0

PIT/DET P8.5 (8.5) -0.0

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2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:38 AM

Nevermind I see which it was.

2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:40 AM

In Seattle under. But don't like being on the over in oak now! Do you consider how much better ball flies there during day?

FUqer · 03-31-18, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Well at least tell me it wasn't the loss or push!! Lol

haha, that wouldn't of been that surprising, but no it was the Dodger Under.

wkupike2000 · 03-31-18, 07:43 AM

Don't take this wrong I'm just confused. You post your plays but you don't play them?

2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by wkupike2000

Don't take this wrong I'm just confused. You post your plays but you don't play them?

To answer for him he just post his projections for the totals., obviously he not gonna play all those totals!!

FUqer · 03-31-18, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

In Seattle under. But don't like being on the over in oak now! Do you consider how much better ball flies there during day?

No, I got ball park factors included but not any DAY/NIGHT splits or anything. Maybe in the future as it gets more complex. I usually consider those kind of extra things when I single out a game I like. I still don't like to rely on one thing such as a model, just collecting a lot of data now and looking for edges within and using it as a base.

FUqer · 03-31-18, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by wkupike2000

Don't take this wrong I'm just confused. You post your plays but you don't play them?

I post all kinds of tracking stuff from my projections, SDQL trends, and other stuff I research and post the info and track the results and let people cypher the information as another tool for their capping. I post my plays mostly for tracking purposes and don't expect anyone to follow them. If I get hot then people can follow, if I get cold, they can fade.

2daBank · 03-31-18, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

No, I got ball park factors included but not any DAY/NIGHT splits or anything. Maybe in the future as it gets more complex. I usually consider those kind of extra things when I single out a game I like. I still don't like to rely on one thing such as a model, just collecting a lot of data now and looking for edges within and using it as a base.

Right on thanks for response. Makes total sense, I'd like to do something similar to simply weed out from having to cap them all individually then dig deeper into ones that show promise.

wkupike2000 · 03-31-18, 07:56 AM

Gotcha. Makes perfect sense that's why I asked because you can answer best. I appreciate it!

FUqer · 03-31-18, 08:29 AM

SDQL 3/31

ALL = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 1-0 for +1.00)
ML = Yesterday 0-0 (Total 0-0 for +0.00)
RL = Yesterday 0-0 (Total 0-0 for +0.00)
OU = Yesterday 1-0 (Total 1-0 for +1.00)

---------------------------------
SU

PLAY: Tigers ML +31.4% ROI (35-12) RL +40.8 ROI (26-20)
p:HL and p

and HF and day=Saturday and season>=2016

PLAY: Brewers ML +9.0 ROI (248-151) RL +22.2% ROI (170-141)
AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin

PLAY: Dodgers ML +28.8% ROI (33-13) RL +45.6% ROI (27-19)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
-----------------------------------
OU

UNDER: Giants/Dodgers +26.6% ROI (30-15-1)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
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SDQL PLAYS

ML

Tigers -125
Brewers -115
Dodgers -190

RL

Tigers +175
Brewers +145
Dodgers +105

OU

Giants/Dodgers Under 8 +100
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FUqer · 03-31-18, 09:09 AM

Matt Shoemaker 7-7 team record in April, 5-4 on the Road.
Daniel Gossett 0-0 team record in April, 0-0 at Home.

CC Sabathia 35-27 team record in April, 17-16 on the Road.
Marco Estrada 14-11 team record in April, 8-4 at Home.

Vince Velasquez 4-4 team record in April, 2-1 on the Road.
Brandon McCarthy 16-22 team record in April, 9-11 at Home.

German Marquez 0-2 team record in April, 0-1 on the Road.
Zack Greinke 32-23 team record in April, 17-14 at Home.

Derek Holland 15-11 team record in April, 7-5 on the Road.
Kenta Maeda 6-4 team record in April, 3-3 at Home.

Carlos Carrasco 12-11 team record in April, 8-5 on the Road.
James Paxton 6-6 team record in April, 4-2 at Home.

Yu Darvish 17-5 team record in April, 8-2 on the Road.
Odrisamer Despaigne 2-0 team record in April, 1-0 at Home.

Michael Wacha 11-8 team record in April, 3-6 on the Road.
Jacob deGrom 7-6 team record in April, 4-3 at Home.

Kyle Gibson 8-10 team record in April, 3-6 on the Road.
Andrew Cashner 9-12 team record in April, 7-5 at Home.

Brent Suter 0-0 team record in April, 0-0 on the Road.
Luis Perdomo 1-2 team record in April, 1-1 at Home.

Lance McCullers 4-1 team record in April, 1-1 on the Road.
Matt Moore 10-11 team record in April, 7-5 at Home.

Rick Porcello 21-20 team record in April, 9-11 on the Road.
Andrew Kittredge 0-0 team record in April, 0-0 at Home.

FUqer · 03-31-18, 09:44 AM

Saturday 3/31/18 MLB Plays

¤ Pirates/Tigers FF Under 4 +105
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I don't want anything to do with the pens in this one, but I like Fulmer and the fact that the wind is basically blowing in at 20 mph.

FUqer · 03-31-18, 12:34 PM

Saturday 3/31/18 MLB Plays

¤ Nationals/Reds Over 8 +100
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My first play is canceled, so I'll try again. Both these pitchers didn't look the greatest in Spring Training and the Over is 6-2 when Strasburg faces the Reds with an avg of 9.5 rpg. The wind is blowing out pretty hard to left and although I'd prefer if it were blowing out to right in that park, these teams both have hitters that can go deep. I'm really impressed with Gennett, dude can hit. I haven't been seeing starting pitchers going deep into games because of the weather and it's not too good in Cincy today, so I don't think Strasburg will go too deep. GL!

2daBank · 03-31-18, 02:22 PM

I hate the ump in Balty for over but man I want to fade those gas cans w wind blowing out. Just worried E will give cashner the low strikes which will allow him to keep the ball on ground. Thoughts?

FUqer · 03-31-18, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Saturday 3/31/18 MLB Plays

¤ Nationals/Reds Over 8 +100
__________________________

My first play is canceled, so I'll try again. Both these pitchers didn't look the greatest in Spring Training and the Over is 6-2 when Strasburg faces the Reds with an avg of 9.5 rpg. The wind is blowing out pretty hard to left and although I'd prefer if it were blowing out to right in that park, these teams both have hitters that can go deep. I'm really impressed with Gennett, dude can hit. I haven't been seeing starting pitchers going deep into games because of the weather and it's not too good in Cincy today, so I don't think Strasburg will go too deep. GL!

¤ Yankees/Blue Jays Under 9 +111