Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

odd http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds.aspx does not have Atlanta Braves

[billdo75]

Braves lose 2-4. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 21-21 L5, +2.84 units
B plays: 10-11 L3, +1.41 units
C plays: 5-6 L1, +0.18 units
D plays: 4-2 L1, +14.21 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 41-0, +28.69 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAADBC C

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 25-23 L5, +5.06 units
B plays: 10-12 L3, -0.33 units
C plays: 6-6 L1, +3.74 units
Chase record: 41-6, +8.47 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA AXABCCX

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 25-17-5 L3, +10.29 units
B plays: 9-8-3 L1, +4.48 units
C plays: 3-5-0 L1, -4.16 units
D plays: 4-1-2 L1, +18.08 units
Chase record: 41-0, +28.69 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAACAB B

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 29-18-7 L4, +13.34 units
B plays: 9-8-3 L1, +4.48 units
C plays: 3-5-0 L1, -4.16 units
Chase record: 41-5, +13.66 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA ACABBX

All filtered plays at -1½: 110-131, +1.86 units, +0.93% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 110-92-39 +0.94 units, +0.32% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 81-75, -7.10 units, -3.80% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 81-59-16, -18.12 units, -6.79% ROI

Parlays: 18-124, -16.28 units

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

I guess there was no plays for today!

[EXhoosier10]

I guess there was no plays for today!

The Cubs opened around -160 at a few books, depending on which one Bil plays, they should have been the play today. I know I was too late to play them, so I'm still going strong on my bet tomorrow. Could have ended it today though.

[Blargh]

I had the Yanks game one on Monday.
For Tuesday I am stilling waiting on Pinnacle to finish its maintenence but it looks like the Dodgers. Tigers or Rsox could be the plays if thier lines move a few cents by the time I can log in.

[billdo75]

So, I didn't get any plays in yesterday. The play would've been San Francisco and they won 9-4. Oh well. I'm going to take the loss and move on. Also, since these haven't been really successful for me lately, I'm going to reduce my stake in them.

Play for 9/8/2009:

A - Chicago White Sox -1½ +125 (-150 ML / 7th)

[Blargh]

Finally some good lines. Couldn't get a +RL on a -160 ML yesterday. Today there are two games opening at pinnacle that have +RL with -206 or higher ML. Jays -206/+105 and the Angels -210/+104. The play has been 12-2 when the highest ML was a +RL in the past two months.

[williams22]

Bildo-
You said in the first post that you are using Bodog, so how are you making the -1 hedged runline bets?

[do5000]

TOR for today?

[ankh4all2]

Billdo75,
Where r you??

[JamboDB]

Billdo75,
Where r you??

Idd been missing your nice posts, where are you?
Love your Modified system

[billdo75]

I'm still here. Baseball season is slowly winding down, so I've started to focus my attentions on football. This was the first year I've wagered in baseball and it turned out pretty good. That ATL D Bet loss on 9/6 kinda stung, but I've still managed to more than double my starting bankroll. I'm still playing this system, just not putting as much money into it. I've also started playing the original biggest-favorite chase again. And...on top of that, I've been playing another little chase system I'm researching. In case anyone is interested, here are the rules:

- Must be part of a 3-games (or more) series
- Home team loses first game by 3 runs or more
- Home team has a winning pct of 45% or better (after losing the first game)
- Chase the home team, taking +1½ if dog or ML if fav

I usually play the chases by increasing my to-win amount on each successive bet of the chase. For example, with this modified system I've been using 1, 1.33, 1.67, and 2 (on top of any previous losses). With the new system I mentioned above I use 1, 1.5, and 2 (rarely have C games). This ones a little different from what I've been doing because I'm laying money (sometimes a lot) on almost all of my plays. The research I've done is below (with flat to-win amounts):

2009
A Bets 70-31, 69.31%, +25.38 units
B Bets 18-13, 58.06%, +1.94 units
C Bets 2-1, 66.67%, +4.50 units
OVERALL 90-45, 66.67% (90-11 series), +31.82 units

2008
A Bets 76-48, 61.29%, +7.15 units
B Bets 33-15, 68.75%, +25.21 units
C Bets 4-0, 100.00%, +19.92 units
OVERALL 113-63, 64.20% (113-11 series), +52.28 units

2007 (still testing...up to 6/17)
A Bets 30-16, 65.22%, +4.35 units
B Bets 10-7, 58.82%, +2.49 units
C Bets 1-0, 100.00%, +5.65 units
OVERALL 41-23, 64.06% (41-6 series), +12.49 units

Anyways, it's been a pleasure, folks! I hope we all turned a nice profit and I look forward to doing it again next year. Oh, before I forget. Does anybody have any NHL or NBA systems they would like to share? I've been reading about mcbain's NHL chase, but just want to see if anybody has anything different. The only NBA system I've read about is the JM, but being able to buy 3 points at -170 severely limits one options as far as the book and it definitely sounds like BetUS is a little shady when it comes to the JM plays. Any info you got would be very much appreciated. Thanks!

[Blargh]

billdo75,
I have appreciated the work you have done on this thread. Started two months ago and with $5 units. I am chasing three units a chase and up $330. Will probably play this chase for another two weeks before calling it quits. Want to make sure I end the season with a W and not a loss in a C or D game. Will definetly be looking at playing this chase again next year.
For hockey I am looking at the McBain chase as well except without the worst road teams filters amd chasing the full length of road trip instead of just 3 games. Still looking for some other options. Investgating taking the biggest dog on the PL but you would be occassionaly laying -200 chalk. It would have won 66% of the time last year but there were a few 5 game chases and a 6 game chase which would have required a decent bankroll to stay in play. I was looking at chasing the top ML fav at alternate PL +1.5. it won over 83% last year but there was a four game chase that possible would have require a bankroll of over 900 units. Assuming a -400 on the +1.5 PL which is probably too low. I cannot find historical +1.5 PL for favs. A -100 team gets around -260 on the +1.5 PL
I have never seen anyone actually talk about ROI on a chase system. Chasing the +1.5PL for favs in NHL last year would have given you 154 units but assuming the 4 game chase is the max then you'd require 900+ unit bankroll, and that's is on the low end. An ROI of 17% on the (or one of the) the highest turnover chase in the NHL. Turnover meaning starting new chases. If you had a 900 unit bankroll I am sure you could find a chase that would win fewer games but would allow you to increase your unit size and in the end win more units.

Anyways too much hockey talk for a baseball thread. Thanks for the system billdo and I am sure I be talking to you again in another chase thread.

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/12/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ A ] Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +105

Original Chase System
[ B ] New York Yankees -1½ -150

Home Loss Chase System
[ A ] San Francisco Giants -108
[ A ] Minnesota Twins -129
[ A ] New York Yankees -340

[jakeandba]

quick question, how can you find a stat on a team winning the 2nd game over 45%

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

wow all the home team loss!

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

I hate to double post but why did Fla not make the pick?

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/13/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ B ] Chicago Cubs -1½ +110

Original Chase System
[ C ] New York Yankees -1½ -160

Home Loss Chase System
[ B ] San Francisco Giants +1½ -160
[ B ] Minnesota Twins -160
[ B ] New York Yankees -360
[ A ] Texas Rangers -155

[billdo75]

I hate to double post but why did Fla not make the pick?

Florida only lost by 2. A 3-run loss triggers the play.

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/14/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ A ] San Francisco Giants -1½ +115

Original Chase System
[ A ] Detroit Tigers -1½ -135

Home Loss Chase System
None

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/15/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ A ] Detroit Tigers -1½ +125

Original Chase System
[ B ] Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -130

Home Loss Chase System
[ A ] Texas Rangers -185

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/16/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ B ] Chicago Cubs -1½ +120*

Original Chase System
[ A ] Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -140

Home Loss Chase System
[ B ] Texas Rangers -155
[ A ] Seattle Mariners +1½ -170
[ A ] Detroit Tigers -177

* The true pick was Detroit over KC, but I didn't want my money riding on a guy that hasn't pitched since July

[AceofSP2107]

3-1 LAD come on hold on to it

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

I so hate I did not get to bet on LAD, but I did take all other (I betted vs. Detroit tho)

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/17/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ C ] Boston Red Sox -1½ +120

Original Chase System
[ A ] Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -150

Home Loss Chase System
None

[Parzy8]

Is anyone taking the Cubs today? I thought it was a C bet?

[Parzy8]

Also what about Tx?

Thanks

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/18/2009:

Modified Chase System
[ D ] Oakland Athletics -1½ +125

Original Chase System
[ A ] Chicago White Sox -1½ -120

Home Loss Chase System
None

[billdo75]

I think this one is done for the year. Yesterday was another D bet loss, so I'm ending this Modified Chase. I'll still play and post the other plays for anybody that's interested, though. Good luck!


Picks for 9/19/2009:

Original Chase System
[ B ] Boston Red Sox -1½ -140

Home Loss Chase System
[ A ] Atlanta Braves -165
[ A ] Los Angeles Dodgers -140
[ A ] Chicago White Sox -190

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/20/2009:

Original Chase System
[ A ] Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +105

Home Loss Chase System
None

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/21/2009:

Original Chase System
[ A ] Boston Red Sox -1½ -110

Home Loss Chase System
None

On a football note, Indianapolis +2½ is the last leg of my 5-team NFL teaser at +450. Go Colts!

[Plasma]

I think this one is done for the year. Yesterday was another D bet loss, so I'm ending this Modified Chase. I'll still play and post the other plays for anybody that's interested, though. Good luck!


Picks for 9/19/2009:

Original Chase System
[ B ] Boston Red Sox -1½ -140

Home Loss Chase System
[ A ] Atlanta Braves -165
[ A ] Los Angeles Dodgers -140
[ A ] Chicago White Sox -190

That would be great!

[billdo75]

Picks for 9/22/2009:

Original Chase System
[ B ] Colorado Rockies -1½ -115

Home Loss Chase System
[ A ] Houston Astros +1½ -120
[ A ] Oakland Athletics -131
[ A ] Milwaukee Brewers -106
[ A ] Chicago White Sox -157

[Blargh]

Billdo, what was your final unit count for the modified chase?

Excluding the current chase I am 43-0 in the chases. I started betting to win 1 unit and am currently betting to win 3 units. If I can close out the chase I'll be up 78 units since July 12th.

Once this chase ends I am going to shut it down until next season. Onto a C bet tommorrow. Previous three chases were c-b-d and is 3-8 in last eleven staright up. Can't believe the Rockies blew it tonight.

[Plasma]

Billdo

What´s up for today m8?