Then if you take Rangers -3 AD vs Blue Jays +3 HF and you will see, the HF has won 13 out of the last 15 in that spot.
-
Comment -
One last thing before I head out for the night. Haven't really got into tomorrow's card yet and won't till the morning, but at first glance, the Reds, Pirates, Rockies, Royals, Tigers GM #2 (Fulmer), all interest me. GL tonight!Comment -
2017 Season
Most Profitable Teams
+$1668 - Rockies
+$1239 - Astros
+$1235 - D-Backs
Least Profitable Teams
-$1255 - Mets
-$1192 - Marlins
-$1131 - Phillies
-$1009 - Padres
Profitable Losing Teams
+$346 - Reds
+$138 - White Sox
Least Profitable Winning Teams
-$991 - Indians
-$666 - Cubs
-$324 - Cardinals
-$107 - Dodgers
Most Profitable Over Teams
+$1700 - Mets
+$1100 - Marlins
+$0953 - Cubs
+$0837 - Braves
+$0768 - Reds
+$0748 - Brewers
+$0718 - Cardinals
Most Profitable Under Teams
+$1065 - Royals
+$0943 - Indians
+$0810 - Angels
+$0480 - Rockies
Most Profitable Teams vs lefties
+$818 - Rockies
+$517 - White Sox
+$302 - Angels
+$275 - Yankees
+$259 - Twins
+$208 - Athletics
+$169 - Orioles
+$167 - Cubs
+$150 - Braves
Least Profitable Teams vs Lefties
-$744 - Indians
-$575 - Blue Jays
-$441 - Rays
-$440 - Reds
-$289 - Cardinals
-$274 - Padres
-$272 - Pirates
-$259 - Astros
-$262 - Dodgers
-$239 - Mets
Most Profitable Over Teams vs Lefties
+$295 - Marlins
+$280 - Mets
+$255 - Athletics
+$252 - Angels
+$178 - Reds
+$170 - Brewers
+$160 - Cubs
+$137 - Pirates
+$090 - Phillies
+$085 - Blue Jays
+$085 - Red Sox
+$065 - Cardinals
Most Profitable Under Teams vs lefties
+$695 - Rockies
+$630 - Indians
+$490 - Mariners
+$465 - Dodgers
+$460 - Rangers
+$345 - Orioles
+$330 - Royals
+$270 - Twins
+$190 - Nationals
+$150 - White Sox
-------------------------------Comment -
Love these list you post!! Never stop!!
Luckily Rockies and dbags were 2 teams I liked a lot coming into the year! On the flip side I also liked Phillies to be a solid bet on team, which they were decent early on. I've jumped way off that bandwagon long ago!!Comment -
A few interesting things.
Pirates, already lost same number of game vs lefties (6-9) than they did all of last season (20-9).
Marlins 2nd least profitable team but still +47 vs lefties.
Astros 2nd most profitable team but -$259 vs lefties.
The last two seasons, the Rockies have been one of the most profitable Under teams.Comment -
I'd think that outta continue with solid pen and stable of strong armed starters they been bringing up. Of course coupled with high ass totals. Curious how that shapes up home and away? This season I have actually started playing some unders at coors, full game even where as used to be strictly ff if I played.Comment -
They've been plus money both on Road and at Home the last two seasons on the Under, +2.6% Home, +3.1% Road, and +5.8 as a Home Favorite, +7.0% as a Road Dog, +15.2% as Home Favorite vs Righties.Comment -
It looks like part of it, may be the books over compensating for years of Overs. The avg. total before 2016 for Home games was 10.3, since it has been 11.3.Comment -
Saturday Plays 5/27
»-White Sox +101 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
»-White Sox -1 +143 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
»-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
_________________________
Yesterday = 1-7 = -6.11
___________________________Comment -
yea, I know, they pulled it from Heritage, I thought they was just moving the same match-up to game #2, regardless I'm fading Buck Farmer today, damn it
I'll update if I need to.
Comment -
Yeah, makes me think if the CWS TT Over (both FG and F5) as well F5 Over are plays also.Comment -
Additions
Saturday Plays 5/27
»-White Sox +101 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
»-White Sox -1 +143 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
»-White Sox TT FF Over 2½ +100 (GM #2)
»-White Sox FF -105 (GM #2)
»-Tigers FF -½ -115 (GM #1 Furmer/Danish)
»-Dodgers TT U 3½ +100
»-Rangers -105
»-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)Comment -
Nice. Glad you liked the ideas too.Comment -
Am I jinxed or what, wow! Danish shuts out Fulmer? Farmer shutting them out thru 5?? bahahahaComment -
What a few days, after a nice start to the week. I'm now out of all the money I made from the NHL playoffs at the beginning and I'm not ready to start on a fresh bank roll yet, so I'm just going to be doing some tracking for awhile, until I figure some stuff out and my luck changes. I will still post some information and do my SDQL thread, DOD, etc.. since I have to be online anyway, but time will get harder to come by after next week when school is out, (wife is a teacher). I'll be putting a lot of time in the lab for the next week though.
I've made some changes to my model that I think will be key for helping with sides. There was nothing wrong at all with the totals projections, in fact it was 11-3 on predicting totals tonight, 55% overall. I saved the formula in case the new one doesn't work out as good for totals.
I apologize for my shitty picks but hopefully I've made it clear before, to use my information, but to not tail me, a lot of identity searching as a player going on. I've only been capping since 2015. I made +20 Units in MLB my 1st season -20 Units last season and it seems to be my worst sport, with NHL, NCAAB and Football as my top 3. I'm determined as ever to beat baseball though.
Here is what the tracking may look like for awhile.
Sunday
First Glance
@Brewers -114
@Rockies -113
Cubs@ +152
Royals@ +118
Rays@ -104
Angels@ -119
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
Padres/Nationals Over 9
Reds/Phillies Over 9
D-Backs/Brewers Over 9
Rangers/Blue Jays Over 9
Tigers/White Sox Over 9.5
Orioles/Astros Under 8.5
Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
------------------------------
Top 6 Plays at First Glance
@Brewers -114
@Rockies -113
Royals@ +118
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
Padres/Nationals Over 8.5
------------------------------
Top 2 First Glance
@Brewers -114
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
-------------------------------
Best Play First Glance
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
-------------------------------
Model: Dogs with highest value
Orioles +195
Braves +160
Mariners +169
Padres +160
Rangers +151
-------------------------------
Model: Favs with highest value
Marlins -108
White Sox -108
Rockies -113
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Unders
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Overs
Braves/Giants Over 8
Padres/Nationals Over 9
-------------------------------
Model Plays
Rangers +151
Royals +114
White Sox -108
Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
Braves/Giants Over 8
Padres/Nationals Over 8.5
-------------------------------
Model Leans
Angels -102
Brewers -113
Twins -101
Cardinals +103
Mets -104
Reds/Phillies Over 9
Orioles/Astros Under 8.5
--------------------------------
Totals Projections
STL (8.72) U11 (-2.28)
MIA (6.83) U8.5 (-1.67)
TOR (7.42) U9 (-1.58)
WAS (9.87) O8.5 (+1.37)
BAL (7.31) U8.5 (-1.19)
KC (7.34) U8.5 (-1.16)
CHW (8.42) U9.5 (-1.08)
BOS (8.92) U10 (-1.08)
CHC (7.00) O6 (+1.00)
ATL (8.87) O8 (+0.87)
TB (8.84) U9.5 (-0.64)
NYM (9.59) O9 (+0.59)
MIL (8.59) U9 (-0.41)
CIN (9.09) O9 (+0.09)
NYY (8.50) O8.5 (+0.00)
-------------------------------
On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145
Only known for near close.
-------------------------------
Square
@BOS -174
@NYY -170
@SF -170
@LAD -165
-------------------------------
Run Line
None
-------------------------------
ALL Side Picks by Tier
KC@ +126
@CHW -106
TEX@ +151
@MIN -101
SD@ +160
STL@ +107
NYM@ -102
LAA@ -102
@MIL -108
BAL@ +201
@PHI +118
@BOS -174
@NYY -170
@SF -170
@LAD -165
-------------------------------Comment -
I noticed something while doing my streak chart about the AL seemingly having more streaks than the NL so I looked it up real quick and found it's been profitable to play on AL teams on streaks of -3 or more for this season. Going back to 2015 until now, +2.4%, but all-time it doesn't hold up, if you think that matters.
And fading NL teams on streaks of +3 or more has better results that is even +0.7% all-time. Getting to head out, but I'm sure I can filter it and increase the ROI when I get more time.
Orioles lost last 6 plays AL team on streak of 3
Rangers lost last 5 plays AL team on streak of 5
Indians lost last 3
Dodgers won last 3
This Season
AL -3 or more = 48-34 +14.0
NL -3 or more = 47-54 -4.9
AL +3 or more = 56-47 +4.0%
NL +3 or more = 35-49 -20.0%
Since 2015
AL -3 or more = +2.4/-5.8
NL -3 or more = -11.4/+6.8
AL +3 or more = -4.9/+1.0
NL +3 or more = +0.4/-4.1
All Time (Database History)
AL -3 or more = -3.0/-1.2
NL -3 or more = -3.6/-0.6
AL +3 or more = -0.9/-3.4
NL +3 or more = -4.6/+0.7Comment -
What do you think about this sdql:
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]Comment -
Comment -
Maybe not just on that alone, but it's something to maybe put you across the fence on a match-up you already liked. The ones that I consider playing on their merit alone are ones with larger sample sizes, like the one I had today in my SDQL thread for the Indians, Rockies, Twins, that went 2-1 and it went 2-0 yesterday that is 970-579 +11.9%.
For the smaller ones I would cross check recent years and all-time records and add the team filter to see how that specific team does in that spot.Comment -
---------------------
Monday Tracking
At First Glance (SU = 2-4) (OU = 3-5)
Phillies@ +132
@White Sox +166
@Rangers -107
Tigers@ -101
@Twins +111
Phillies/Marlins Under 8.5 +100
Dodgers/Cardinals Under 8.5 -110
Tigers/Royals Under 9 -110
Astros/Twins Under 9 -113
Mariners/Rockies Over 11 -110
------------------------------
Top 6 Plays at First Glance (SU = 2-1) (OU = 0-3)
@Rangers -107
Tigers@ -101
@Twins +111
Phillies/Marlins Under 8.5 +100
Tigers/Royals Under 9 -110
Astros/Twins Under 9 -113
------------------------------
Top 2 First Glance (SU = 1-0) (OU = 0-1)
Rangers -107
Astros/Twins Under 9
-------------------------------
Best Play First Glance (SU = 0-0) (OU = 0-1)
Astros/Twins Under 9
-------------------------------
Model: Dogs with highest value (3-2 for +2.80)
White Sox +166
Padres +174
Reds +189
Athletics +227
Brewers +125
Phillies +143
Mariners +140
-------------------------------
Model: Favs with highest value ( 3-0 for +3.00)
Royals -105
Rangers -115
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Unders (0-2)
Red Sox/White Sox Under 9
D-Backs/Pirates Under 9
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Overs (0-1-1)
Braves/Angels Over 8
Brewers/Mets Over 8.5
-------------------------------
System Plays (SU = 2-1) (OU = 1-3)
Rangers -115
Royals -105
Nationals -114
Phillies +143
Brewers +125
Red Sox/White Sox Under 9
D-Backs/Pirates Under 9
Braves/Angels Over 8
Brewers/Mets Over 8.5
-------------------------------
On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145 (1-0 for +1.34)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing (2-1 for +2.37)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
Square (3-1 for +1.26)
Indians -237
Cubs -184
-------------------------------
Run Line
Indians -1.5
-------------------------------
RRL dogs @ Col ( 0-1 for -1.00)
Mariners -1.5
-------------
ALL Picks by Tiers (Total = 8-7)
(#1 = 1-1 +0.00)(#2 = 2-1 +2.10)(#3 = 1-1 +0.00)(#4 = 3-1 +1.26)(#5 = 1-3 -2.02)
Rangers -115
Nationals -114
Brewers +125
Royals -105
Indians -237
Phillies +143
Orioles -109
Cardinals +102
Twins +121
Cubs -184
Red Sox -176
Blue Jays -199
Rockies -150
Braves +112
D-Backs +103
-------------
Model Projections for Totals
@CHW - (7.0) - U9 - (-2.0)
@PIT - (7.2) - U9 - (-1.8)
@SD - (6.9) - U8 - (-1.1)
@HOU - (8.0) - U9 - (-1.0)
@STL - (7.5) - U8.5 - (-1.0)
@TOR - (8.1) - U9 - (-0.9)
@LAA - (8.8) - O8 - (+0.8)
@MIA - (7.7) - U8.5 - (-0.8)
@BAL - (8.2) - U9 - (-0.8)
@TEX - (8.7) - U9.5 - (-0.8)
MIL@ - (9.1) - O8.5 - (+0.6)
WAS@ - (9.0) - O8.5 - (+0.5)
@CLE - (8.7) - U9 - (-0.3)
@KC - (8.9) - U9 - (-0.1)
-----------------------------
SDQL Plays
Angels -122
Royals -105
Brewers/Mets Over 8
------------------------------
Would be plays
Brewers +125
Rangers -115
Astros/Twins Under 9
Brewers/Mets Over 8
Braves/Angels Over 8
-------------------------------Comment -
Comment -
Tuesday Tracking
Interested In At First Glance (SU = 4-7 for -0.41) (OU = 5-7 for -0.23)
Phillies -106
Pirates -104
Cardinals -104
Brewers +105
Padres +125
Giants -118
Indians -151
Orioles +110
White Sox +159
Twins -123
Blue Jays -170
Mariners +125
Phillies/Marlins Under 9
D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5
Dodgers/Cardinals Over 8.5
Brewers/Mets Over 9
Cubs/Padres Under 8
Nationals/Giants Under 8
Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5
Astros/Twins Under 9
------------------------------
Top 6 Plays at First Glance (SU = 2-4 for -1.00) (OU = 1-5 for -4.23)
Twins -123
Brewers +105
Orioles +110
Brewers/Mets Over 9
Nationals/Giants Under 8
Astros/Twins Under 9
------------------------------
Top 2 First Glance (SU = 1-1 for -0.07) (OU = 0-2 for -2.23)
Brewers +105
Brewers/Mets Over 9
-------------------------------
Best Play First Glance (SU = 0-0) (OU = 0-2 for -2.23)
Brewers +105
________________________________
Model: Dogs with highest value (6-6 for +3.60)
White Sox +172
Nationals +110
Reds +160
Athletics +151
Astros +109
-------------------------------
Model: Favs with highest value ( 3-2 for +0.80)
Cubs -136
Rockies -133
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Unders (1-2-1 for -1.10)
Cubs/Padres Under 8
Reds/Blue Jays Under 9.5
-------------------------------
Model: Top two Overs (1-2-1 for -1.20)
Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5
Nationals/Giants Over 8
-------------------------------
Model Projections for Totals(Overall 7-6-1) (O = 1-2) (U = 6-4) (3-3 = 0-0)(Top 3 = 2-0-1)(4 thru 7 = 2-2)(Botton 5 = 1-4)
CHC@SD - U8 = (-2.2)
CIN@TOR - U9.5 = (-1.6)
TB@TEX - U10 = (-1.4)
NYY@BAL - U9 = (-1.2)
BOS@CHW - O7.5 = (+1.1)
WAS@SF - O8 = (+1.1)
PHI@MIA - U9 = (-0.8)
MIL@NYM - U9 = (-0.6)
OAK@CLE - U8.5 = (-0.5)
LAD@STL - U8.5 = (-0.4)
HOU@MIN - U9 = (-0.4)
ARI@PIT - O7.5 = (+0.1)
DET@KC - (7.9)
ATL@LAA - (8.5)
________________________________
System Plays (3-5 for -2.12)
Astros +112
Brewers +106
Rockies -133
__________________________________
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145(2-0 for +2.65)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing(4-2 for +5.04)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
RLM
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
Run Line (1-0 for +1.00)
Nationals -1.5
-------------------------------
RRL dogs @ COL ( 0-2 for -2.00)
Mariners -1.5
___________________________________
ALL Picks by Tiers (Total = 8-7)
(#1 = 2-3 -1.15)
Astros@ +112
Brewers@ +106
@Rockies -133
(#2 = 3-2 +2.05)
Dodgers@ -112
Rays@ -117
(#3 = 2-4 -2.00)
Phillies@ +105
@Orioles +116
(#4 = 4-4 -2.84)
@Blue Jays -170
Cubs@ -136
(#5 = 2-4 -1.90)
Nationals@ +112
Athletics@ +152
@Pirates +102
@White Sox +172
-------------
SDQL Plays (0-3 for -3.37)
Rockies -133
Blue Jays -170
D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5
Astros/Twins Over 9
------------------------------
Finals Mock Plays (SU = 0-2 for -2.15) (OU = 1-2 for -1.20)
Brewers +106
Astros +112
Nationals +112
Athletics +152
Rockies -1 -104
D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5 -118
Astros/Twins Over 9 -108
Athletics/Indians Under 8.5 +102
-------------------------------Comment -
Wednesday 5/31 Tracking
________________________________
Projected Totals
DET/KC - (7.6) - U9 = (-1.4)
CIN/TOR - (8.6) - U10 = (-1.4)
OAK/CLE - (7.7) - U9 = (-1.3)
ATL/LAA - (9.0) - O8 = (+1.0)
CHC/SD - (7.5) - O8.5 = (+1.0)
ARI/PIT - (8.1) - U9 = (-0.9)
MIL/NYM - (8.3) - O7.5 = (+0.8)
NYY/BAL - (7.7) - U8.5 = (-0.8)
COL/SEA - (8.7) - O8 = (+0.7)
WAS/SF - (8.2) - O7.5 = (+0.7)
PHI/MIA - (7.9) - U8.5 = (-0.6)
LAD/STL - (7.6) - U8 = (-0.4)
TB/TEX - (9.2) - U9.5 = (-0.3)
BOS/CHW - (9.3) - U9.5 = (-0.2)
HOU/MIN - (9.1) -
________________________________
Model: Dogs with highest value (8-9 for +2.79)
Brewers +170
White Sox +135
Rockies +144
Dodgers +120
Rangers +131
Reds +131
__________________________________
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145
(3-0 for +4.01)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing
(4-3 for +4.04)
Not yet determined.
-------------------------------
Run Lines Based on 60% model predictions (2-0 for +2.65)
Cubs -1.5 -113
Nationals -1.5 -103
-------------------------------
RRL dogs @ COL ( 1-2 for +0.40)
None
___________________________________
Would Be Plays for Wednesday
Marlins -1 +102
Yankees -110
Braves/Angels Over 8 -103
Cubs/Padres Over 7.5 -103
-------------------------------
I got rid of some of the clutter and reworked my pitcher ratings yesterday and made some more small improvements to my formula and how I determine plays. I'm only using the model as just one part of a new system I created. We'll see how it goes. GL!Comment -
Think I may of found something.
Would Be Plays for Wednesday
Marlins -1 +102
Yankees -110
Tigers +119
Rangers RL +256
White Sox RL +295
Reds RL +193
Athletics RL +202
Braves/Angels Over 8 -103
Cubs/Padres Over 7.5 -103
Nationals/Giants Over 7.5 +105Comment -
My angles on these RRL are playing off dogs in games where the total is 9 more, the higher the better.
A team like the White Sox have won 46% of the time as a dog in that spot, but digging deeper, I found when they do win, it's by 2 or more 75% of the time. 75% of 46% is 34.4%, that's the chance the White Sox have by the numbers at winning by 2 or more. If you hit 33% of the time at +200 odds for -1.5, you will break even. Ok, that alone might not be worth it, but if you dig deeper, Home Dogs between +110 and +150 are 53% the last 2 seasons, which raises the chances to 40%. If you can win $200-$300 4 times out of every 10, that a very nice ROI.
The Rangers odds are even better as they are 58% as a dog in that spot and 68% at Home, while winning by 2 or more 70% of the time.
Home Dogs total of 10 or more and line between +110 and +130 have been 65% winners L2 seasons. Applies to the Twins and they win by 2 or more 79% of the time when they win.
The Athletics and Reds aren't as good as odds, but I'm only tracking at this point, the A's are only 38% winning % in that spot, but when they do win, they win by 2 or more 82% of the time. The Reds was an added bonus against a pitcher I already like to fade in Bolsinger.
I still need to back test this, I have only looked at the past seasons.Comment -
I guess taking a break from these?Comment -
no, just posted bout them today, I haven't took any RRL but used it for dogs SU.
Comment
