I hear ya, only during big games that are televised with RLM or a really lopsided backing, do I give it much influence, any other time it seems to be about 50/50., I'll look at it if I'm on the fence about a play though.
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Comment -
I forget if it was last year or year before but I recall like a month or 2 stretch where every move over 20 cents pretty much lost. Got so crazy I stopped betting games overnight and waited to make sure I wasn't on the side of those moves! It was insane, never recall anything like that happening any other time but it was insane. You would get the better of a line by 30 cents feeling all good about yourself then game would start and the good feeling would quickly turn sour! LolComment -
Like that 2.82 rpg allowed, and Berrios has been dealing, should be another low scoring game, but wonder if price if going get better for the Under like the last 2 days. Very tempting to play on the Orioles, but Twins have been rolling and Orioles lost 3 in a row all at Home.
Chris Tillman in his last 11 afternoon starts. 5 of last 6 have gone Under.
11-0 (3.55, 100.0%) avg line: -112.3 / 102.1 on / against: +$1,235 / -$1,279 ROI: +90.3% / -100.0% 10-1 (3.14, 90.9%) avg line: 109.2 / -121.5 on / against: +$1,121 / -$1,191 ROI: +87.6% / -81.3% 5-6-0 (0.36, 45.5%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$162 / +$30 ROI: -13.6% / +2.4% 6.36 4.00 8.18 10.91 2.36 1.73 3.09 2.18 6.64 14.64 7.73 0.50 1.82 3.75 2.82 3.55 7.64 7.09 1.91 0.73 1.55 0.73 0.82 15.00 7.36 0.92 3.64 4.75
Pitchers he beat on that streak include.
5 on Road and 6 at Home, one decided by 1 run.
Pineda
Santana
Graveman
@Clevinger
Lincecum
@Sabathia
@Sanchez
@Triggs
@Verlander
QuintanaComment -
If I would have got to it sooner I would have played twinks at +130ish. Feel like lost too much at current price tho. Happy with the +105 on under 9 even tho yea certainly risk I end up w crappy number. I just don't get why ppl where pounding over tonight or that they would here. That kid for twinks really impressed me when I watched last start. Straight nasty!!Comment -
Today
WIN - ARI U11 (8.73)
WIN - MIN U9 (7.23)
WIN - NYM O8 (9.57)
WIN - WAS O9 (10.27)
WIN - LAD U7 (6.07)
LOSS - BOS U9.5 (8.68)
WIN - COL O8.5 (9.28)
LOSS - ATL U9 (8.26)
WIN - OAK O9 (9.43)
WIN - MIL U9 (8.57)
WIN - TB U8.5 (8.18)
WIN - HOU U8.5 (8.19)
WIN - NYY U8.5 (8.37)
LOSS - CLE U8.5 (8.38)
Model is not even two weeks old and doing pretty good, but yes I know it's still early. The Cubs was a win also but not when I posted the projections, it got adjusted for the weather when the total was released. That's why I didn't even do the Cubs when I posted tomorrow's projections. Overs was at 60% before tonight and they all hit. As far as sides, it's about 50% for the side showing value, but 75% of the time it's a dog, so it's been profitable. It definitely needs more work, it likes certain teams and my pitcher ratings need updated a bit. It's tough to do pitchers with little info on and I think that's where it's been struggling, I might have to start tracking those separate and see if there is something I can improve or they should be left out. Having said all that it will prolly suck tomorrow.Comment -
Wednesday Plays 5/24
»-Twins/Orioles Under 9 +100 (7.89)
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Yesterday = 6-3 = +3.05
___________________________Comment -
Disregard the Indians line, I forgot they moved to Cleveland.
Originally Posted by FUqer
WEDNESDAY PROJECTIONS
@BOS -226 69.4% - Total = 7.16 - Perez/Sale
@HOU -164 62.1% - Total = 9.03 - Norris/Morton
@WAS -162 61.8% - Total = 9.05 - Gaviglio/Roark
@ATL -142 58.6% - Total = 8.64 - Williams/Teheran
@NYM -141 58.5% - Total = 10.25 - Cosart/Gsellman
@OAK -141 58.5% - Total = 8.51 - Volquez/Gray
@CHC -167 62.5% - Total = $1.00 - Moore/Hendricks
@BAL -138 57.9% - Total = 7.89 - Berrios/Tillman
@LAD -138 57.9% - Total = 8.00 - Leake/Hill
CLE@ -134 57.2% - Total = 8.01 - Bauer/Bonilla
@NYY -130 56.5% - Total = 8.68 - Hammel/Severino
@ARI -101 50.2% - Total = 8.41 - Quintana/Delgado
@PHI -125 55.5% - Total = 7.94 - Chatwood/Hellickson
@MIL -107 51.6% - Total = 8.99 - Stroman/Garza
LAA@ -105 51.2% - Total = 8.58 - Nolasco/RamirezComment -
Was leaning over in D.C. As well. I forget what kept me from pulling trigger, might have to revisit when I get a chance..Comment -
what about MIami Edison is gonna win sometime and his numbers against Oak very good getting plus money ?Comment -
Marlins have to win back to back games vs a righty to interest me, they are 3-17 SU L20 vs a righty, with one coming last night. Oakland on a 12-5 run at Home. Always worth a look vs a lefty though. 2daBank is on Oakland, I kinda like the Over. Oakland on a 16-5 Over run, and teams on at least 3 str8 Overs are 84-54, Last 138 this season.Comment -
Royals & Mariners are very tempting contrarian plays in the right range.Comment -
Predictions for tonight.
Cardinals & Over
Rays & Over
Mets & Over
Astros & Over
Braves
TEX/BOS Under
SEA/WAS OverComment -
Thursday's Projections
@NYY -210 67.7% - Total = (7.82)
@WAS -160 64.5% - Total = (8.37)
@BOS -173 63.3% - Total = (8.26)
@NYM -167 62.5% - Total = (8.85)
@CLE -158 61.2% - Total = (7.92)
@TB -135 57.4% - Total = (9.09)
@LAD -132 56.9% - Total = (7.12)
@ATL -127 55.9% - Total = (7.51)
@MIL -119 54.3% - Total = (8.39)
@HOU -115 53.5% - Total = (6.53)
@PHI -114 53.2% - Total = (8.45)
@CHC -110 52.3% - Total = (?.??) WeatherComment -
Looking at so far for Thursday.
Tigers
Braves
Angels/Rays Over
Tigers/Astros Under
---------------------
Others
Rockies
Brewers
Rays -1
Reds/Indians Under
Pirates/Braves Under
Padres/Mets Over
Mariners/Nationals Under
Sleepers
Royals FF only
MarinersComment -
Worked out for line move bettors today going by records, not always the case.
STL@ +138 (-22) WIN
@OAK -141 (-16) WIN
SF@ +165 (+10) LOSS
KC@ +184 (+11) LOSS
@PHI +109 (+13) LOSS
and that's just the big ones, almost every team where odds moved away from them lostComment -
Thursday Plays 5/25
»-Tigers/Astros Under 9 -112 (6.53)
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Yesterday = 4-1 = +3.47
___________________________Comment -
»-Padres/Mets Over 7.5 -108 (8.85)
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I see the Padres are starting a top prospect Dinelson Lamet and looking at his stats from the minors, they appear pretty good, high strikeout rate, low home run rate. He is still making his first start in New York in possible bad weather and I don't expect home runs to be a factor anyway with the wind blowing in at 12 mph. It's possible he doesn't last too long and the Padres bullpen takes over, especially if there is a delay in the middle. Over is hitting at 60% for my model and this is one of only two it's projecting today and the Mets have gone Over the total 4 str8 times and teams on at least 3 str8 Overs are 86-55 +15.5% ROI, since April 20th of this season. The Mets are also 13-0-3 OU, the last 16 games off a game as a favorite when they gave up 6 runs or more.Comment -
Friday's Early Projections
@WAS -259 72.1% - Total (7.22) - Perdomo/Scherzer
@BOS -179 64.2% - Total (7.84) - Gallardo/Rodriguez
@CLE -152 60.3% - Total (7.31) - Kennedy/Salazar
@HOU -139 58.1% - Total (7.99) - Gausman/Musgrove
@NYY -138 57.9% - Total (9.39) - Graveman/Sabathia
@SF -135 57.4% - Total (8.87) - Garcia/Cain
@MIL -135 57.4% - Total (8.82) - Godley/Guerra
@CHW -121 54.7% - Total (9.32) - Farmer/Pelfrey
CHC@ -124 55.3% - Total (6.94) - Arrieta/Wood
@PHI -124 55.3% - Total (9.41) - Arroyo/Nola
NYM@ -123 55.3% - Total (8.00) - DeGrom/Kuhl
@MIA -122 55.1% - Total (8.12) - Chavez/Straily
@MIN -117 53.9% - Total (8.82) - Archer/Santiago
@COL -108 51.9% - Total (10.60) - Martinez/Senzatela
DET@ -107 51.6% - Total (8.81) - Boyd/Danish
TEX@ -104 51.1% - Total (9.28) - Griffin/Bolsinger
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Early bird gets the worm. My first thoughts, I will always look into fading Bolsinger, but I suspect the Rangers will be favored by more than what I have. Always got to look into the White Sox vs a lefty, even though they have been my worst team to play on this year. Anything +money for the Angels against the Marlins and I will look into. Not sure if Arrieta will be a favorite on the road in LA as predicted, prolly not, but if so, would definitely look at the Dodgers. Guerra back for the Brewers, maybe interested in the price is right. Oakland possibly worth a look, and maybe even the Orioles, Musgrove hasn't been that good at home. That looks like it at first glance for sides.Comment -
»-Giants +104 (1-6)
»-D-Backs/Brewers Over 8.5 -110 (8.39)
----------------------------
I'm going against my projection on this one, mostly based on some trends and the fact these two offenses can put up some runs. I don't like that it dropped from 9 -120 to 8.5 -110, but hopefully that just means a better price for me in the end. I'm pretty sure my model has an error median of -.49 on it anyway. I went it against it twice and lost but they were both Overs and I went Under, which I should've known better. It's a two week old model anyway, can't put much faith in it yet if I like something opposite.
Starting pitchers on the Road with and ERA of more than 3 and less than 4 in a night game this season.
Zach Davies at Home career.47-20-4 (1.91, 70.1%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$2,500 / -$3,141 ROI: +31.9% / -40.3%
Brewers at Home in Night games this season.17-7-1 (1.10, 70.8%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$965 / -$1,140 ROI: +35.2% / -41.4%
12-4-0 (2.84, 75.0%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: +$765 / -$920 ROI: +43.3% / -52.3% Comment -
Friday Plays 5/26
»-Rangers +132 (5-7)
»-Brewers -104 (8-4)
»-Athletics/Yankees Over 9 -110 (9.39)
»-Rays/Twins Over 8.5 +100 (8.82)
»-Braves/Giants Over 8 -107 (8.87)
»-Mariners/Red Sox Under 9.5 -110 (7.84)
_________________________
Yesterday = 1-4 = -2.93
___________________________
Stinker of a day after a couple really nice ones.Comment -
Additions
Friday Plays 5/26
»-Rangers +132 (5-7)
»-Brewers -104 (8-4)
»-Angels +129 (4-3)
»-Orioles +148 (4-1)
»-Twins +127 (6-4)
»-Athletics/Yankees Over 9 -110 (9.39)
»-Rays/Twins Over 8.5 +100 (8.82)
»-Braves/Giants Over 8 -107 (8.87)
»-Mariners/Red Sox Under 9.5 -110 (7.84)Comment -
Athletics/Yankees Over was canceled due to pitching change. I wanted the Royals and Reds today also, but there ended up being a pitching change, now I want to look at the Under in the Indians game and I'm not sure if I'll replay the Athletics/Yankees Over, I just got home and need to take look over a few things.Comment -
Thanks for sharing. Appreciate your insight. I tried looking through past pages to see what the records in parentheses next to the ML plays were but could not find an explanation. Somewhere around 5/7 you just start posting team ML plays with the parenthetical records but don't explain what they are. Sorry if this is a dumb question. Thanks again!
Comment -
Been pretty bad with these teams.
Giants 1-7
White Sox 2-10
Mariners 0-6
Marlins 2-7
Pirates 2-6Comment -
Ah, okay. I thought it might be that. Thanks for clarifying. Appreciate it. Good luck tonight!Comment -
This is what I got as it stands now for totals and current lines. I gave up on the Tigers/White Sox musical pitching changes.
@BOS U9 -105 (7.84) (-1.16) - Gallardo/Rodriguez
@PHI O8 -110 (9.15) (+1.15) - Adleman/Nola
@HOU U9 -105 (7.99) (-1.01) - Gausman/Musgrove
@SF O8 -107 (8.87) (+0.87) - Garcia/Cain
@WAS U8 -110 (7.22) (-0.78) - Perdomo/Scherzer
@NYY O9 -115 (9.39) (+0.39) - Manaea/Tanaka
@MIL O8.5 -115 (8.82) (+0.32) - Godley/Guerra
@MIN O8.5 -120 (8.82) (+0.32) - Archer/Santiago
TEX@ U9.5 -110 (9.28) (-0.22) - Griffin/Bolsinger
@MIA O8 -115 (8.12) (+0.12) - Chavez/Straily
@COL O10.5 -110 (10.60) (+0.10) - Martinez/Senzatela
@CLE U8.5 -115 (8.40) (-0.10) - Kennedy/Clevinger
CHC@ U7 -110 (6.94) (-0.06) - Arrieta/Wood
@PIT O8 -110 (8.00) (+0.00) - DeGrom/KuhlComment -
Here is another chart I monitor daily, I've posted it before. A little late for today, but nothing to interesting anyway. I look for all-time, recent and team record in spot to all be positive. It's been better to play on teams on losing streaks than it has been to play on teams on winning streaks.
___________________________________
Losing Streaks of 3 or more
2017 = (90-82 +4.4% ROI) (89-75 OU +4.1 ROI%)
(ROI ALL) (ROI Since 2015) (Team Record)
Orioles -4 AD (-6.5%) (+5.3%) (16-34)
Brewers -4 HF (-0.8%) (+7.6%) (11-8)
White Sox -3 HD (-2.4%) (-19.9%) (10-16)
Rangers -3 AD (-3.3%) (-4.7%) (24-23)
Giants -3 HF (-3.1%) (-0.5%) (28-24)
____________________________
Winning Streaks of 3 or more
2017 = (86-92 -7.3% ROI%) (88-82 OU +0.1% ROI%)
(ROI ALL) (ROI Since 2015) (Team Record)
Twins +4 HD (-14.8%) (-15.5%) (3-9)
Red Sox +4 HF (-3.2%) (-0.0%) (27-19 1-6 L7)
D-Backs +4 AD (-3.4%) (-10.6%) (10-12
Blue Jays +3 HF (-1.3%) (+4.8%) (24-26)
Cubs +3 AD (-4.2%) (+6.9%) (9-17)
_____________________________Comment
