o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-10-16, 12:45 PM

Monitoring purposes.

**white powder** · 08-10-16, 12:55 PM

thank you

**white powder** · 08-10-16, 12:56 PM

lol i knew this is your thread

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-10-16, 03:37 PM

1 for 1, now watch the system go 3 for 3 today. Lmao!

**thekoreanmang** · 08-10-16, 03:41 PM

I know, right. Good job, though.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-10-16, 09:46 PM

2-1 on the day.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-11-16, 07:11 AM

Only have two for today. trying to get super picky. Let's see how it works.

Overs:
ATL/MIL
BAL/OAK

**Can U Tank It** · 08-11-16, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Only have two for today. trying to get super picky. Let's see how it works.

Overs:
ATL/MIL
BAL/OAK

trader- these old or new system? bol

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-11-16, 07:23 AM

Old system, the very first one i was using.

**jlani93** · 08-11-16, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

2-1 on the day.

Ahh man! Up until 2 minutes ago when I read Hawk's post, (he's glad he passed on BAL/OAK), I thought yesterday was a 3-0 day for us. Lol. I was finishing up dinner so just quickly glanced at my phone to see BAL scored (my husband also confirmed the score was 1-0). Just read the A's challenged the call and it was overturned.

Oh well, we got this today though!

SaveSave

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-11-16, 12:21 PM

Forgot one;

NYY/BOS, over

**Sir-Ater** · 08-11-16, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Forgot one;

NYY/BOS, over

playing these 3, or just monitoring right now?

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-11-16, 12:41 PM

I played all three of them on a separate account.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-11-16, 03:19 PM

1-1 so far. Hopefull we get the second win tonight. Good job, TT.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-11-16, 08:10 PM

2-1. Good job.

**jlani93** · 08-11-16, 08:35 PM

**pairadux** · 08-12-16, 01:05 AM

TT,

Will you be going back to the old method for good? I trailed your higher percentage picks (when you listed 2%, 3%, 4%...) - running rough numbers had you just around 63% on those 4% picks - an awesome percentage. Even during your rough stretch which caused you to make some adjustments, those 4% picks were still strong.

I'm still working an alternate system and like seeing when we root for the same and go head to head.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-12-16, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by pairadux

TT,

Will you be going back to the old method for good? I trailed your higher percentage picks (when you listed 2%, 3%, 4%...) - running rough numbers had you just around 63% on those 4% picks - an awesome percentage. Even during your rough stretch which caused you to make some adjustments, those 4% picks were still strong.

I'm still working an alternate system and like seeing when we root for the same and go head to head.

That is exactly where I am going. Looking forward to next year, I think I'll take a break starting about one week before the trade deadline for about two to three weeks. The teams I am capping right now, just simply aren't the same teams I was capping during mid season. I've noticed that a few other people on this forum are also struggling and I am pretty sure it is due to similar issues.

One perfect example is NYY. Since July 27th, they have only put up runs in 3(!) of those 13 games.That's 15.3% of their games. Now they never were a great first inning run producer, but pre July 27th, they were at 20.6%. Similar trends have also been affecting teams like Oakland, who have also only put up runs in two of their last 13 games, they used to be a 26% scoring team before they traded Reddick. It looks like losing players like Beltran or Reddick can really change a teams first inning production.

I hope this helped.

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-12-16, 01:47 AM

Here's another fun fact:

(Excluding yesterday's doubleheader teams)

The avg. first inning scoring rate of all 16 teams which played last night, over their last 13 games was 16.67%. The league avg, pre trading deadline was about 30%!

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-12-16, 10:28 AM

OK, here we go. I am going back to system one but have added one more variable in order to (hopefully) avoid some bad bets due to post trade-deadline roster changes.

ALL OVERS TODAY!

4%
BAL/SF

3%
KC/MIN
ARZ/BOS
SD/NYM
SEA/OAK
PIT/LAD

2%
CWS/MIA
STL/CHC

The STL/CHC game should be a 3%er but individual matchups do not look great. Feel free to drop that game or even bet against it. I need to go with the system...

The main reason why I am laying off of unders is because I feel the league is due to put up some great over numbers and my analysis was based off of that thought.

**Capybara** · 08-12-16, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

OK, here we go. I am going back to system one but have added one more variable in order to (hopefully) avoid some bad bets due to post trade-deadline roster changes.

Gotta give you credit, TT, you are really trying to work out a winning algorithm here. Personally, I remain skeptical of everyone's "systems," but I want to believe someone can really develop one that will continue to pay out over the long haul... and I know you love this shit too, so I'm pulling for ya! Get 'em!

**thekoreanmang** · 08-12-16, 11:02 AM

Wow. Just great effort, TT. I applaud you win or lose although I will applaud harder for more wins. Haha.

Agreed with Capybara. The thought and determination you're putting into this is truly great and I believe will pay off this season and beyond.

**MoMoney2** · 08-12-16, 11:35 AM

Does anyone know where to get info on how many 1st inning runs individual pitches have given up with out having to look at each box score? I am really into this 1st inning stuff and I am trying to put something of my own together so that I don't always just have to tail TT, I feel dirty about just playing other people's picks. I do appreciate all of your work, you are still killing it!

Good luck today!

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-12-16, 11:54 AM

Thanks Mang and Capy!

MoMoney, don't get things mixed up! A pitchers ERA is completely (or almost completely) irrelevant. It's the amount of times he's been scored on. one huge first inning can completely blow up his ERA. Some pitchers take a few innings to "find their grove". Verlander used to always be like that.

This link will help you:
He has only given up runs in 4 of his 22 starts.

**oilcountry99** · 08-12-16, 02:27 PM

TT....

Sent you a PM

**Thizz** · 08-12-16, 06:27 PM

Boom! Nice 2-0 to start the day 👊🏽

**Thizz** · 08-12-16, 08:16 PM

Make that 3-0!

**Fabiodog** · 08-12-16, 09:33 PM

System looked awesome today

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-13-16, 12:09 AM

7:1, I'll stick with this system.

Hopefully I can update the numbers some time today.

**thekoreanmang** · 08-13-16, 12:53 AM

Just some temporary volatility I guess. Great job, my friend. Encore performances til season's end!

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-13-16, 12:55 AM

After that 0:6 streak, I took a few days off and came back with a decent night. That 0:6 run shaved a good 18% of my BR. I've recovered a little but am still a good 5-6% away from my YTD highest BR. Money management and that small break kept me alive here. My largest lesson learned from all of this is, once again good money management and strict discipline will keep you out of a lot of trouble.

Bankroll day 1: $700.00
Record: 128-85
Total Profit: 171.62%
Bankroll day 51: $1901.29

Hit rate: 60.09%

**jlani93** · 08-13-16, 10:27 AM

Awesome day yesterday TT! Love the new system.
Thanks for all your hard work and sharing it with us.

SaveSave

**TechnicalTrader** · 08-13-16, 11:02 AM

Thanks.

Here we go. Although the system is giving me very, very strong signals on the BAL/SF game, I am no fan of it but am still going to risk the 4%. For those who are following and haven't noticed, almost every game had an over 1st inning. Pretty much what I was looking for as I stated the league was under performing in the first. I do not expect that trend to remain in tact and my system agrees with only four overs and one under. Today will be an interesting day. Yesterday's results already mean nothing. I need to follow up today and hit at least 60%. I'll be super happy to go 3 for 5, obviously wanting the two 4%ers to hit!

Under
COL/PHI 3%

Over
KC/MIN 4%
LAA/CLE 3%
BAL/SF 4%
SEA/OAK 2%

If anyone has any questions feel free to ask. i'm not going to explain the system in detail, just due strictly to the complexity of it, but I'd be more than happy to help anyone out who is trying to make some money in the first.

Vegas and the books don't really have the time to be precise with their prop-capping, this is where we us little fish can find an edge! Let's do this!!

**oilcountry99** · 08-13-16, 11:13 AM

Lets get 'em TT! Superb night last night....keep the ball rollin'.

**MoMoney2** · 08-13-16, 11:16 AM

Not liking the over in the BOS/ARZ game? Everything that I have been looking at suggest this to be a strong play. Curious what your signals are saying to keep you off of this game.

Thanks for all the work and time you have put into this, you got me hooked on this prop betting! I really like the last thing you put into your last post about Vegas not having time to be precise in prop capping.